Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (9961 HK/TCOM US) with an updated target price of HKD 571 (9961 HK) and USD 73 (TCOM US) based on a 16x 2025 P/E ratio [1][3][6] Core Views - Trip com Group s 3Q24 net profit exceeded expectations by 40 25 compared to the report s and market estimates respectively driven by improved operational efficiency and effective cost control [1][2] - The company s domestic hotel ADR decline narrowed to low single digits while supply increased by approximately 7 YoY International hotel and air ticket bookings exceeded 2019 levels by over 20 [1][2] - The report is optimistic about Trip com s steady growth prospects in 2025 with expected revenue growth of 16 and adjusted net profit margins maintaining above 30 [3] Business Segment Highlights - **Accommodation Booking**: Domestic hotel ADR decline narrowed to low single digits compared to a double digit decline in 2Q24 Domestic platform hotel supply grew 6 7 YoY [2] - **Transportation Ticketing**: Revenue growth accelerated significantly compared to previous quarters contributing 36 of total revenue [2] - **Package Tours**: Revenue reached RMB 1 56 billion up 17 52 YoY QoQ recovering to 95 of 3Q19 levels Outbound package tour revenue grew over 100 YoY [2] - **Corporate Travel**: Revenue increased 11 4 YoY QoQ to RMB 660 million with continued growth in customer numbers [2] International Business - Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings exceeded 2019 levels by 20 while international passenger traffic recovered to 93 of 3Q19 levels [3] - Trip com s international OTA platform saw over 60 YoY growth in hotel and air ticket bookings with the Asia Pacific region accounting for approximately 70 of bookings Inbound hotel bookings grew 100 YoY [3] - International OTA platform revenue contributed 9 to the group s total revenue with cross selling rates from air tickets to hotels continuing to improve [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow 16 YoY in 2025 driven by domestic supply advantages and higher user spending post pandemic 3Q24 user spending increased 20 compared to pre pandemic levels [3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to maintain above 30 with AI driven operational efficiency improvements [3] - Key financial metrics for 2025E include revenue of RMB 61 18 billion adjusted net profit of RMB 21 7 billion and an adjusted net profit margin of 35 5 [5][13] Valuation - The target price is based on a 16x 2025 P/E ratio reflecting confidence in the company s growth trajectory and profitability [3][6] - The report highlights Trip com s strong market position and operational efficiency as key drivers for its valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a 22% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3 2024, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations. Revenue for Q3 reached 15.87 billion yuan, a 15.5% increase, also surpassing expectations [2][7]. - The domestic business is showing strong performance during the peak season, with significant growth in hotel bookings and international travel. The company is expected to continue expanding its market share in the domestic hotel sector [2][8]. - The international business is recovering rapidly, with outbound flight and hotel bookings surpassing 120% of 2019 levels, indicating a strong competitive advantage [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 52.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.9%. The adjusted net profit is projected to be 17.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.8% increase [3][14]. - The company’s EBITDA for Q3 was 5.68 billion yuan, a 22.9% increase, indicating improved operational efficiency and cost management [2][7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 25.40 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.2 [3][14]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation booking revenue reached 6.80 billion yuan, up 22%, while transportation ticketing revenue was 5.65 billion yuan, a 5% increase. The travel vacation segment generated 1.56 billion yuan, reflecting a 17% increase [2][8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its international platform, with plans to increase marketing investments in Q4 to capitalize on the overseas travel peak season [2][8]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 52.93 billion, 61.71 billion, and 71.25 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [2][8]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for the same period have been increased to 17.36 billion, 19.72 billion, and 22.90 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting strong operational performance [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with an adjusted PE of 17X/16X/13X for 2024-2026 [3][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 15.9 billion, a 16% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.8 billion, a 47% YoY increase [2] - The strong summer travel demand drove high growth across all business segments, with accommodation booking revenue increasing by 22% YoY and 32% QoQ to RMB 6.8 billion [2] - Outbound travel business recovery surpassed market levels, reaching 120% of 2019 levels, with international OTA platform revenue growing 60% YoY, accounting for 9% of total revenue [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 82%, driven by the strong growth of hotel booking and international business segments, with Non-GAAP net profit margin reaching 38%, the highest in nearly a decade [3] Business Segments - Accommodation booking: Revenue of RMB 6.8 billion, up 22% YoY and 32% QoQ [2] - Transportation ticketing: Revenue of RMB 5.7 billion, up 5% YoY and 16% QoQ [2] - Travel vacation: Revenue of RMB 1.6 billion, up 17% YoY and 52% QoQ [2] - Corporate travel management: Revenue of RMB 700 million, up 11% YoY and 4% QoQ [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 52.4 billion in 2024, RMB 60.5 billion in 2025, and RMB 69.0 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 17.7%, 15.5%, and 14.0% respectively [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 19.2 billion in 2024, RMB 20.4 billion in 2025, and RMB 24.4 billion in 2026 [5] - Adjusted diluted EPS is forecasted to be RMB 28.04 in 2024, RMB 29.77 in 2025, and RMB 35.66 in 2026 [5] Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82% from 2024 to 2026 [12] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is projected to increase from 32.99% in 2024 to 32.96% in 2026 [12] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 12.39% in 2024 to 12.57% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (9961.HK) [6] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 net revenue of 15.873 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 15.5%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.765 billion RMB, up 46.6% year-over-year, with Non-GAAP net profit at 5.963 billion RMB, a 21.8% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.773 billion RMB [1][2] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 82.4%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 34.4%, reflecting strong cost control and profitability [2] Revenue and Profitability - Revenue breakdown shows hotel accommodation at 6.802 billion RMB (up 21.7% YoY), transportation ticketing at 5.650 billion RMB (up 5.3% YoY), and vacation revenue at 1.558 billion RMB (up 17.3% YoY) [2] - The company’s international OTA platform saw hotel and flight bookings increase by over 60% year-over-year, indicating robust growth in international markets [2][3] Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific region remains the primary market for Trip.com, with booking volumes growing over 70% [3] - The company has also seen a 100% year-over-year increase in inbound hotel orders, with some hotels participating in overseas promotions experiencing over 200% growth in bookings [3] Financial Forecast - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 to be 17.417 billion RMB, 18.997 billion RMB, and 21.407 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP EPS of 25.48 RMB, 27.79 RMB, and 31.32 RMB [3][5] - The adjusted P/E ratios for the same periods are forecasted to be 18x, 17x, and 15x [3][5] Conclusion - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's ability to outperform the industry in outbound tourism, supported by its strong brand and user base [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Trip.com Group (9961 HK), with a target price raised to HKD 605.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 478.20 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company's hotel business has performed better than expected, and the transportation segment is returning to normal growth, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 4% and 6% respectively. Trip.com is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth, with manageable investments and losses [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 15.9 billion for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing market expectations. The growth was driven by accommodation (+22%), transportation (+5%), vacation (+17%), and business travel (+11%) segments [2][6]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 6 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations due to optimized cross-selling and effective cost control [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2024E have been updated to RMB 52.93 billion, reflecting an 18.8% growth rate, while 2025E revenue is forecasted at RMB 60.6 billion, a 14.5% growth rate [4][17]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2024E is expected to be RMB 16.08 billion, with an operating profit margin of 30.4% [4][17]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 17.84 billion, with a net profit margin of 33.7% [4][17]. Performance Metrics - The company has shown a strong recovery in its hotel and transportation segments, with the average daily rate (ADR) pressure easing and outbound travel bookings recovering to 120% of 2019 levels [2][6]. - Marketing expenses have increased by 23% year-on-year, but remain stable as a percentage of revenue at 21% [2][6]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to be 81.5% for 2024E, slightly down from 81.7% in the previous forecast [4][17].

Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Trip.com Group reported a net revenue of RMB 15.9 billion (USD 2.3 billion), representing a 16% year-over-year increase, driven by strong travel demand[8]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 6.8 billion (USD 970 million), compared to RMB 4.6 billion in the same period of 2023, marking a significant increase[11]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was RMB 5.7 billion (USD 880 million), up from RMB 4.6 billion in Q3 2023[11]. - The revenue from accommodation bookings was RMB 6.8 billion (USD 969 million), a 22% increase year-over-year, while transportation ticketing revenue was RMB 5.7 billion (USD 850 million), up 5% year-over-year[8]. - Total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 13,751 million, a decrease of 5.5% compared to RMB 14,556 million for the same period in 2022[26]. - Net income attributable to Trip.com Group Limited for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 4,615 million, representing a 20.5% increase from RMB 3,833 million in the same period of the previous year[31]. - The gross profit for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 11,273 million, with a gross margin of approximately 82%[26]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended September 30, 2023, was RMB 4,622 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%[39]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of RMB 7.05 for the three months ended September 30, 2023, compared to RMB 5.84 for the same period in 2022, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.7%[32]. - The company expects total revenue for the three months ending June 30, 2024, to be approximately RMB 12,788 million, indicating a projected growth of 6.5% compared to the same period in 2023[26]. Operational Highlights - Hotel and flight bookings on the international OTA platform grew by over 60% year-over-year, with outbound hotel and flight bookings fully recovering to 120% of pre-pandemic levels[5][6]. - Research and development expenses for Q3 2024 were RMB 3.6 billion (USD 519 million), a 2% increase year-over-year, reflecting rising costs associated with R&D personnel[9]. - Sales and marketing expenses rose to RMB 3.4 billion (USD 482 million), a 23% increase year-over-year, due to higher costs related to sales and marketing activities[9]. - Research and development expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2023, were RMB 3,577 million, an increase of 19.5% from RMB 2,993 million in the same period of the previous year[26]. - The company reported a significant increase in user data, with a total of 5,589 million in accommodation bookings for the three months ended September 30, 2023[26]. - Trip.com Group Limited is focusing on market expansion and new product development to enhance its competitive position in the travel industry[26]. Financial Position - As of September 30, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 86.9 billion (USD 12.4 billion)[12]. - Ctrip Group reported a total asset increase from RMB 219,137 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 244,300 million by September 30, 2024, representing an increase of approximately 11.5%[22]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased from RMB 43,983 million to RMB 41,982 million, a decline of about 4.5%[22]. - Total liabilities rose from RMB 96,131 million to RMB 104,173 million, indicating an increase of approximately 8.5%[24]. - Shareholders' equity increased from RMB 122,184 million to RMB 138,410 million, reflecting a growth of around 13.3%[24]. Strategic Outlook - The company expressed optimism about the continued growth of the travel industry, driven by consumer confidence and a surge in travel enthusiasm[7]. - Trip.com Group is committed to leveraging AI technology as a core driver for shaping the future of the global travel industry[7]. - Ctrip Group's mission is to provide a comprehensive travel platform for both Chinese tourists and international travelers, emphasizing high-quality travel experiences[20]. - The company operates under several brands, including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, aiming to inspire travel exploration and support users throughout their journeys[20]. - Ctrip Group's reliance on partnerships with suppliers and competitors poses risks, particularly in managing growth rates and strategic investments[19]. - The company has faced challenges related to economic fluctuations and regulatory dynamics affecting its operations in various jurisdictions[19]. - Ctrip Group's financial data includes non-GAAP measures to provide a clearer picture of its operational performance, although these measures may not align with other companies' non-GAAP data[19].

证 券 研 究 报 告 携程集团-S（09961.HK）24Q2 季报点评 推荐（维持） 利润超预期，出境海外保持快速增长 目标价：492 港元 当前价：370.2 港元 事项： ❖ 24Q2 公司实现营收 127.7 亿元，同比增长 13.6%，经调整经营利润（non gaap op）42.3 亿元，yoy+21.7%；净利润 38.9 亿元，同比增长 500%；non gaap 归 母净利润 49.8 亿元，同比增长 45.2%。24Q2 公司毛利率 81.9%，同比-0.3pct， 环比+0.7pct，经调整经营利润率 33.1%，同比+2.2pct，环比+2.1pct。 ❖ 24 年 6 月公司完成发售本金总额为 15 亿美元的可转换优先票据（一般无担保 债务，年利率 0.75%），同时公司已回购约 3 亿美元公司股份。 评论： ❖ 24Q2 公司营收符合预期，利润超预期。营收分板块来看，住宿 51.4 亿，同比 增长 19.9%；交通 48.7 亿，同比增长 1.2%；度假 10.3 亿，同比增长 42.0%； 商旅 6.3 亿，同比增长 8.4%。 ❖ 国内稳健，出境和海外高增。分国内外来看，Q2 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 2024Q2 业绩点评：业绩超预期，海外业务继 续高增 2024 年 08 月 31 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 20039 | 44510 | 52814 | 60610 | 67562 | | 同比 (%) | 0.08 | 122.12 | 18.66 | 14.76 | 11.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1403 | 9918 | 14628 | 16661 | 18613 | | 同比 (%) | 355.09 | 606.91 | 47.49 | 13.89 | 11.72 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 1,2 ...

出境游/国际业务高增,助推 Q2 业绩超预期 核心观点 ● ● +14%;归母净利 38亿元人民币/同比+507%;Non-GAAP 净利润 50 亿元人 民币/同比+46%。 2Q24 住宿预订增长好于交通,商旅、度假业务受益低基数持续增长。分 板块:1) 住宿预订服务实现营收 51 亿元/同比+20%,环比+14%,虽然国内 一不利影响;2)交通票务服务实现营收 49亿元/同比+1%/环比-3%,主要因 2Q24 机票价格波动。3) 旅游度假业务实现营收 10 亿元/同比+42%/环比 +16%,得益于旅游度假预订需求和节假日旅游需求增长。4)商旅管理业务实 现营收 6.3 亿元/同比+8%/环比+24%,主要受季节性影响。 ● 出境游/国际业务保持高增,入境游开始贡献增量。出境游方面,截至 2Q24, 公司出境游机酒预订已全面恢复至 2019 年同期水平,五一和端午预定量较 2019年分别+20%和+10%,且出境跟团游以成倍的速率增长。海外业务方面, 公司国际 OTA 平台营收同比+70%,占总营收的10.5%左右,其中,入境游板 块表现出色,1H24营收同比+150%,免签地区游客营收同比+190% ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 2024 年 8 月 27 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 336.00 港元 509.00 +51.5% 携程集团 (9961 HK) 内地酒店业务表现好于预期，并将在下半年看到边际改善 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 128 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 14%，与我 们/彭博市场预期基本一致，其中住宿+20%/交通+1%/旅游度假+42%/商旅 +8%。调整后净利润同比增 45%至 50 亿元，净利率 39%，对比去年同期 30%，超过我们/彭博市场预期 34%/39%，得益于规模效应、交叉销售优 化、高利润率业务占比提升以及联营公司利润超预期。市场恢复下营销活 动保持投入，调整后营销费用同比增 20%，占收比 22%，同比基本稳定， 与我们预期一致。 2 季度业绩要点：1）中文站点酒店预定同比增 20%，内地间夜量增约 15%，较行业增长高 10 个百分点，持续扩张市占，得益于用户心智及交叉 销售效率提升。内地 ADR 仍承压，但竞争缓和下补贴率下降缓释 ADR 压 力。2）出境机酒预订完全恢复至 2019 年水平，领先整体国际航班 70%+ 的恢复速度。机票价格 ...