Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $11.303 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit of $911 million, up 10% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, the revenue was $2.595 billion, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of $115 million, up 18% year-on-year [1][10] - The company continues to expand its store count, reaching a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, with net additions of 1,751 stores for the year [2] - Same-store sales showed improvement, with a decline of only 1% in Q4 2024 compared to the same period last year, marking a continuous quarter-on-quarter improvement since Q2 2024 [3] - The company has seen significant growth in its delivery sales, which increased by 14% year-on-year in Q4 2024, and digital order revenue reached $9.6 billion, accounting for 90% of restaurant revenue [4] - The company plans to continue its store expansion, targeting an additional 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with an increasing proportion of franchise stores [5][10] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $11,303 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3% [11] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $11,820 million, $12,655 million, and $13,639 million, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $937 million, $1,015 million, and $1,114 million [11] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 19.2x, 17.7x, and 16.2x, respectively [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of $61.5, representing a potential upside of 27.1% from the current price of $48.4 [2][24]. Core Insights - Same-store sales performance is identified as a key factor influencing the company's 2025 earnings and stock price. The company anticipates a slight decline in same-store sales for 2024 due to adjustments in customer pricing to maintain steady traffic. However, operational efficiency improvements are expected to offset the negative leverage impact, allowing for slight margin expansion [1][4]. - The management's cautious outlook for 2025 reflects uncertainties in same-store performance, which is expected to significantly impact restaurant profit margins. The company aims for systematic revenue growth in the mid-single digits for 2025, with a target of opening 1,600-1,800 new stores [4][6]. - The competitive landscape is observed to be stabilizing, with some industry players reducing discounts and slightly increasing menu prices. Yum China plans to maintain stable pricing for KFC while lowering prices for Pizza Hut to attract more customers [4][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yum China are as follows: - 2023: $10,978 million - 2024: $11,303 million (3.0% growth) - 2025: $11,720 million (3.7% growth) - 2026: $12,509 million (6.7% growth) - 2027: $13,281 million (6.2% growth) [6][9]. - Net profit estimates are projected as: - 2023: $827 million - 2024: $911 million (10.2% growth) - 2025: $924 million (1.4% growth) - 2026: $996 million (7.8% growth) - 2027: $1,099 million (10.4% growth) [6][9]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Yum China is approximately $18,253 million, with an average daily trading volume of $102.9 million over the past three months [2][4]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of $28.5 to $52.0, indicating significant volatility [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK / YUMC.US) and raises the target price to HKD 475.3, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current stock price of HKD 382.8 [1][5]. Core Insights - Yum China's fourth-quarter total revenue increased by 4% year-on-year to USD 2.6 billion, with system sales also growing by 4%. Core operating profit surged by 36%, and net profit rose by 18% to USD 115 million, exceeding market expectations. For the full year, revenue reached USD 11.3 billion, a 3% increase, while net profit was USD 980 million, up 8.8% [1][2][5]. - The company has implemented efficiency improvement projects, such as Project Fresh Eye and Project Red Eye, which have started to yield positive results in operational efficiency and cost management [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4, KFC's total revenue grew by 5% to USD 1.95 billion, with system sales also up by 5%. The core operating profit increased by 18%, and net profit was boosted by lower material costs and improved operational efficiency [3]. - Same-store sales saw a decline of 1%, but this was an improvement from a 3% decline in Q3. The total number of stores reached 16,400, a 12% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The management expenses decreased, contributing to an increase in profit margins. The management expense ratio for Q4 was 6%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Financial Projections - The report slightly raises the net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to USD 1.03 billion, USD 1.11 billion, and USD 1.15 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of HKD 19.6, HKD 21.1, and HKD 21.9 [1][5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.57% for 2025, 6.15% for 2026, and 6.10% for 2027 [9]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 475.3 based on a 2025 PE of 24x and a DCF valuation suggesting a fair value of HKD 479.8 [13][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China [6][20]. Core Insights - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of $2.595 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and a core operating profit growth of 35% [9][20]. - Same-store sales decline continued to narrow, with a year-on-year decrease of 1% in Q4 2024, improving from a 3% decline in Q3 2024 [11][20]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with an increased proportion of franchise stores [19][20]. Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of $11.303 billion, representing a 3.0% increase year-on-year [9][20]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was $911 million, up 10.2% from the previous year, with an EPS of $2.33, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [9][20]. - The company’s operating profit margin improved to 12.3% in Q4 2024, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [15][20]. Store Expansion and Strategy - In Q4 2024, the company added 534 new stores, exceeding its annual target of 1,500 to 1,700 new stores [11][20]. - The franchise ratio for new stores increased, with 30% of KFC and 13% of Pizza Hut new stores being franchises [11][20]. - The company is focusing on expanding its new store formats, including KFC Coffee and Pizza Hut WOW stores, which reached 700 and 200 locations respectively by the end of 2024 [19][20]. Market Trends - Digital order revenue reached $9.6 billion in 2024, accounting for 90% of restaurant revenue, with a stable growth in membership numbers [13][20]. - The company’s takeaway revenue grew by 14% year-on-year, maintaining a double-digit growth trend over the past decade [14][20]. Future Outlook - The company has set a target to return $3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2025-2026 [19][20]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is adjusted to $978 million, with an EPS forecast of $2.76 [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) with a current price of HKD 382.80 [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of USD 11.3 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3% (or 5% excluding foreign currency effects), and a net profit of USD 911 million, up 10% year-on-year [5] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of USD 2.6 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of USD 115 million, an 18% increase year-on-year [5] - The core operating profit margin for 2024 was 10.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [5] Revenue Performance - The company’s system sales in Q4 2024 increased by 4% year-on-year, with KFC and Pizza Hut growing by 5% and 3% respectively [6] - Same-store sales decreased by 1% year-on-year, with KFC and Pizza Hut declining by 1% and 2% respectively [6] - The average transaction value for KFC and Pizza Hut decreased by 4% and 10% respectively, primarily due to a shift towards lower-priced items [6] Store Expansion - In Q4 2024, the company added 534 new stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut contributing 365 and 118 new locations respectively, bringing the total to 16,395 restaurants [6] - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a capital expenditure of approximately USD 700-800 million [6] Operational Efficiency - The restaurant profit margin for 2024 was 15.7%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - In Q4 2024, the restaurant profit margin improved to 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Pizza Hut is undergoing a transformation to become a more mass-market brand, with a focus on menu diversification and price adjustments [8] - The introduction of the "wow" store concept has been pivotal, with over 200 locations aimed at attracting younger consumers [8] - The company is also focusing on its coffee brand, Kenuo Coffee, with plans to expand from 700 to 1,300 locations by the end of 2025 [9] Financial Forecast - The report projects net profits of USD 977 million for 2025, with an EPS of USD 2.59, and maintains a PE ratio forecast of 19x for 2025 [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Hong Kong and US stocks of Yum China [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q4 adjusted net profit increase of 11%, continuing its expansion and efficiency improvement efforts [3][10] - The company aims to increase its store count in 2025, targeting a net addition of 1,600 to 1,800 stores [10] - The company maintains a strong shareholder return policy, with plans for share buybacks and dividends totaling approximately $3 billion from 2025 to 2026 [10] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected to grow from $10.98 billion in 2023 to $13.55 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 14.7% in 2023 and 7.1% in 2027 [4][12] - **Net Profit**: Projected to increase from $827 million in 2023 to $1.16 billion in 2027, with a growth rate of 87.1% in 2023 [4][12] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected to rise from $2.00 in 2023 to $3.55 in 2027 [4][12] - **Valuation Metrics**: The report estimates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.33 in 2023, decreasing to 13.84 by 2027 [4][12] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Forecasted to improve from 12.9% in 2023 to 18.8% in 2027 [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [4] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of $2.6 billion in Q4 2024, with a year-over-year increase of 4%. Operating profit reached $151 million, up 36% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 5.8% [1] - The growth in system sales was driven by a 5% contribution from net new stores, with a total of 534 new stores opened in Q4, bringing the total to 16,395 stores [2] - The company plans to increase the proportion of franchise stores, targeting 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut in future new openings, aiming for 1,600-1,800 net new stores and $700-800 million in capital expenditures by 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 system sales increased by 4% year-over-year, with same-store sales down 1%, an improvement from Q3's decline of 3%. Delivery sales grew by 14% year-over-year, accounting for 42% of restaurant revenue [2] - Q4 restaurant profit margin was 12.3%, up 1.6 percentage points year-over-year, with KFC at 13.3% and Pizza Hut at 9.3% [3] Shareholder Returns - The company has a target of returning $4.5 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, with $248 million returned in Q4 and $1.5 billion for the full year 2024. A 50% increase in cash dividends to $0.24 per share has been announced [4] Earnings Forecast - Projected net profits for FY2025-2027 are $943 million, $1.011 billion, and $1.061 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of $2.50, $2.68, and $2.82. The P/E ratios are expected to be 20, 18, and 17 times [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of $2.595 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year, and core operating profit of $150 million, which is a 35% increase after excluding currency effects, aligning with expectations [1]. - The overall restaurant profit margin improved to 12.3%, up 1.6 percentage points, with a net store opening of 534 in Q4 and a total of 1,751 for the year, exceeding initial guidance [2][4]. - KFC's same-store sales decline narrowed by 1 percentage point, with a stable average order value, while Pizza Hut showed a significant improvement in same-store sales decline, with a notable increase in order volume [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, an increase of 100 from the previous year, with a projected same-store sales growth driven by price increases and improved value offerings [4]. - Forecasted net profit for 2025 is $960 million, reflecting a 5.4% year-over-year growth, with a PE ratio of 19.5x [4]. - Key financial metrics include a projected diluted EPS of $2.56 for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 18.56% [7][4].

管理层预期2025年新开1600至1800家门店，肯德基和必胜客的净开店特许经营组合比例将分别逐步提升 至40%—50%和20%—30%。 证券时报网讯，麦格理报告指出，百胜中国农历新年同店销售增长略显正面，竞争趋于理性，利润率扩 大。 校对：王锦程 麦格理将百胜中国目标价上调至428港元，维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 reached $11 billion, with a net addition of 1,751 stores[3] - Operating profit for Q4 increased by 36% to $151 million, with an operating profit margin of 5.8%, up 140 basis points year-over-year[3][6] - Same-store sales index improved to 99% of last year's level, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of same-store transaction growth[3][7] - Digital order revenue reached $9.6 billion, accounting for approximately 90% of the company's restaurant revenue[3] - The company reported operating profit of $192 million in Q4 2024, a 15% increase year-over-year, while core operating profit rose by 18%[11] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached $8.51 billion, a 3% increase compared to $8.24 billion in 2023[11] - The company reported a net profit of $911 million for the year, up 10% from $827 million in 2023[23] - Total revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, was $2,595 million, a 4% increase from $2,493 million in 2023[23] - Net profit attributable to Yum China Holdings, Inc. was $115 million, an 18% increase from $97 million in the same quarter of 2023[23] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached $11,303 million, a 3% increase from $10,978 million in 2023[23] Shareholder Returns - The company returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2024, including $248 million in cash dividends and $1.24 billion in stock buybacks[3][7] - The company plans to increase cash dividends by 50% and aims to return $4.5 billion to shareholders from 2024 to 2026[7] - The company plans to return $3 billion to shareholders between 2025 and 2026, building on the $1.5 billion returned in 2024[17] - The company announced a 50% increase in cash dividends to $0.24 per share, payable on March 27, 2025[10] Store Expansion - The total number of stores increased by 12% to 16,395, with 534 new stores added in Q4[3][6] - The company is targeting 20,000 stores by 2026, leveraging franchisees to expand into previously hard-to-reach areas[7] - The number of KFC restaurants increased by 1,352 in 2024, reaching a total of 11,648 locations, marking a 13% growth[12] - For the fiscal year 2024, Pizza Hut added 412 new stores, with a total of 3,724 stores by year-end[17] - The company expects to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in fiscal year 2025, with capital expenditures between $700 million and $800 million[17] Profitability Metrics - Core operating profit grew by 12% to $1.2 billion for the full year[3] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share for 2024 was $2.33, an 18% increase from $1.97 in 2023[8] - The operating profit margin for KFC was 9.9% in Q4 2024, reflecting a 100 basis point increase year-over-year[12] - The restaurant profit margin for the quarter was 9.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 220 basis points after adjusting for comparable items[17] - The company achieved a restaurant profit margin of 12.0% for the fiscal year, with a year-over-year increase of 60 basis points after adjustments[17] - The restaurant profit margin for KFC was 16.9%, while Pizza Hut's was 12.0%, leading to an overall margin of 15.7%[55] Membership and Sales - Membership for KFC and Pizza Hut exceeded 525 million, with member sales accounting for 65% of total system sales[3] - System sales increased by 5% in Q4 2024, with same-store sales reaching 99% of the previous year's level, up from 98% in Q3[12] - Pizza Hut's system sales increased by 3% year-over-year, with same-store sales reaching 98% of last year's level, up from 94% in Q3[17] Financial Adjustments and Metrics - The company believes that presenting core operating profit enhances comparability of past operating performance and related trends[42] - The company has made adjustments to financial metrics to exclude special items and items affecting comparability, providing additional information for investors[43] - The company emphasizes that adjusted financial metrics are not intended to replace GAAP financial performance but provide additional insights for performance comparison[40] Tax and Expenses - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 27.6%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from 24.2% in the previous year[23] - The company’s total restaurant expenses amounted to $2,133 million for the quarter, with KFC's expenses at $1,668 million and Pizza Hut's at $452 million[50] - Company restaurant expenses totaled $2,090 million, with KFC at $1,621 million and Pizza Hut at $449 million[52] Other Financial Highlights - The company reported a net impairment charge of $12 million for closed stores[52] - The company incurred a net loss of $15 million from all other segments, impacting overall profitability[55] - The company received rental reductions and government subsidies due to the impact of COVID-19, which were recognized as reductions in restaurant expenses[15]