花旗发表研报指出，预测泡泡玛特(9992.HK)以IP为核心的多元化策略，可增强其抵御IP周期性风险的 能力，重振新需求。花旗每周数据追踪显示，近期APP下载量呈上升趋势，尤其中国和美国，认为主要 受旗下Skullpanda x My Little Pony新系列的发布；展望2026年，花旗预测集团在IP多元化、产品创新及 广泛领域变现能力的突破将驱动增长。报告提及，集团的其他标志性IP产品，如SKULLPANDA、 CRYBABY正成为新的增长动力，并拥有各自的粉丝群体，这并非单纯作为LABUBU的替代品。预测非 LABUBUIP在今年具上行潜力，其近期的全球消费者调查结果亦显示，海外市场对非LABUBU IP的兴 趣可能被低估。花旗予泡泡玛特买入评级，目标价为415港元，基于2026年预测28倍市盈率；集团相较 大多数全球玩具及IP同业存在溢价，或归因于其海外扩张驱动的快速增长。与国内同行相比，花旗亦相 信泡泡玛特凭借其领先地位应享有溢价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating stock performance of Pop Mart, highlighting its market value drop and subsequent recovery, while questioning the sustainability of its business model and consumer interest in collectible toys [4][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's market capitalization peaked at 450 billion HKD in August last year but fell to 264.56 billion HKD [4]. - Despite a significant drop, Pop Mart's stock rebounded with a year-to-date increase of over 20% [4]. - Institutional investors have shown mixed confidence, with eight out of nineteen quarters seeing sell-offs, particularly in Q2 2022 [7]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Trends - In Q4 2025, 136 funds held a total of 4.15 million shares, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.01 million shares, reflecting a 29.65% decline [8]. - Notable fund managers like Zhang Kun and Xiao Nan exited their positions after significant losses, while Zhou Wenbo from Fortune Fund saw a 977.5% increase in stock price since Q3 2023 [10][11]. - Zhou Wenbo's strategy involved continuous research and timely adjustments to his holdings, leading to substantial gains [13]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Insights - The founder, Wang Ning, emphasizes the emotional connection consumers have with toys, suggesting that nostalgia and emotional fulfillment drive demand [6][16]. - The article posits that the future of consumer spending will increasingly focus on spiritual and emotional satisfaction rather than just material needs [17][30]. - Pop Mart's business model is framed as a blend of art and commerce, aiming to create unique consumer experiences rather than merely selling products [19][21]. Group 4: Strategic Vision and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's long-term strategy includes global expansion and a focus on IP development, leveraging China's manufacturing capabilities [37][38]. - The company aims to balance artistic uniqueness with commercial viability, positioning itself as a leader in the collectible toy market [21][24]. - Wang Ning's vision includes adapting to the AI era by enhancing the emotional and cultural significance of products, suggesting a shift towards deeper consumer engagement [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a 50% surge in stock price within a month, short-sellers are intensifying their positions against Pop Mart, leading to a precarious standoff in the market [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Short-Selling Dynamics - Pop Mart's stock has seen a significant increase, yet short-sellers have not retreated, with short positions rising from 2% to 16% of free-floating shares [1]. - The short squeeze risk score for Pop Mart has reached the maximum of 100, indicating potential for a rapid price increase if the stock continues to rise [1]. - The current market structure shows a larger short position compared to institutional long holdings, creating a crowded one-sided bet [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Insights - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment regarding Pop Mart's future growth, particularly in overseas markets, with short-sellers expressing skepticism [4]. - Despite management's efforts to support the stock price through buybacks, short interest has continued to rise, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's fundamentals [5]. - Analysts have pointed out that the recent stock price increase is not driven by fundamental factors, suggesting that short-sellers may see this as an opportunity to increase their positions [5]. Group 3: Potential for Market Volatility - The ongoing battle between the company's defensive measures and the aggressive stance of short-sellers is escalating, with both sides preparing for potential volatility [7]. - The market is at a critical juncture, where either a forced exit by short-sellers due to margin pressure could lead to a price surge, or deteriorating fundamentals could burst the stock price bubble [7].

Summary of the Conference Call on Pop Mart Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Pop Mart, a company in the collectibles and toy industry, particularly known for its designer toys and IP collaborations [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Stock Performance**: - Pop Mart's stock price has rebounded significantly, rising over 40% since the company initiated a buyback on January 19 [1]. - The stock price fluctuations from late October to now have been attributed to market speculation rather than new company information, as the company has limited financial reporting windows [1]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: - Negative sentiment regarding North American performance emerged after September last year, leading to a continuous stock price decline and downward adjustments in bullish earnings expectations [1]. - By late January, following the buyback and product catalysts, market sentiment shifted positively despite the lack of new bearish logic [1]. 3. **Long-term Growth Potential**: - The long-term growth narrative for Pop Mart remains intact, with recent high-frequency data misleading investors about the company's sustainable growth [2]. - The company has benefited from category expansion and IP explosions over the past two years, with a focus on "refinement and localization" in 2026 [2]. 4. **IP Collaboration**: - Collaborations with local IP designers are emphasized, with a stable existing IP portfolio and new IP launches, such as Merodi, which is designed by a Taiwanese designer [2]. - Future IP collaborations may focus on local designers in the U.S. and Europe, which could enhance market penetration, as evidenced by successful experiences with Southeast Asian and American designers [2]. 5. **Store Expansion and Upgrades**: - The company is opening larger stores both domestically and internationally, allowing for better product display and customer experience [2]. - The upgrade of existing stores is just beginning, with a focus on enhancing the overall store effectiveness compared to traditional smaller stores [2]. 6. **Branding and Consumer Experience**: - The establishment of landmark stores in locations like Fifth Avenue and Times Square is expected to enhance brand recognition [3]. - Continuous optimization of the shopping experience is noted, including frequent updates to shopping bag designs [3]. 7. **International Expansion**: - The company is in the foundational stage of its international expansion, with a focus on local integration and operational efficiency [3]. - The long-term strategy includes a "group" approach, potentially leading to segmented financial reporting by different business units in the future [3]. 8. **Financial Projections**: - The revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 38.3 billion, 51.3 billion, and 62.7 billion respectively, with non-GAAP net profits of 13.3 billion, 17.7 billion, and 22.1 billion [3]. Additional Important Insights - The company is actively working on enhancing customer engagement and education regarding its multiple IPs, particularly in overseas markets [3]. - The strategic focus on larger stores and localized IP development is expected to drive future growth and market penetration [2][3].

Group 1: Hongqiao Holdings (002379.SZ) - The company is a leading aluminum producer with over 19 million tons of alumina capacity and 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, making it the second-largest aluminum producer globally [8] - The revenue from electrolytic aluminum accounts for over 70% of total revenue, while alumina contributes 20% [8] - The company benefits from stable alumina supply and lower transportation costs due to its advantageous geographical location [8] - The electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum production is relatively high, but there is potential for reduction, which could significantly increase profits [9] - The company has a high dividend payout policy, planning to distribute at least 80% of profits as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027 [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 166.2 billion, 177.3 billion, and 177.3 billion yuan, with net profits of 19.31 billion, 29.21 billion, and 30.39 billion yuan respectively [10] Group 2: Electric Power Green Energy (000875.SZ) - The company is the only green hydrogen energy platform under the State Power Investment Corporation, focusing on both "new energy" and "green hydrogen" sectors [10] - As of 2024, the company has a total installed capacity of 14.44 million kilowatts, with a significant portion from renewable sources [10] - The profitability of coal-fired power generation is expected to stabilize due to improvements in pricing mechanisms [11] - The company is actively developing green hydrogen projects, leveraging abundant wind and solar resources for hydrogen production [12] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 533 million, 809 million, and 907 million yuan, with a projected price range of 7.89 to 8.24 yuan per share [13] Group 3: Agricultural Industry - The agricultural sector is experiencing significant supply pressures, particularly in egg production, which may lead to accelerated culling of dairy cows due to low milk prices [14] - The price of live pigs is expected to remain stable, while beef prices are projected to rise, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [15] - The dairy market is facing challenges, with raw milk prices potentially reaching a turning point in 2026 [15] - The poultry market is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand, with limited supply fluctuations [15] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor index saw an 18.04% increase in January, outperforming the electronic industry and the Shanghai Composite Index [28] - Global semiconductor sales in December 2025 reached $78.88 billion, marking a 37.1% year-on-year increase [28] - The demand for DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to grow significantly, with DRAM production value projected to increase by 144% in 2026 [31] Group 5: Bilibili (09626.HK) - Bilibili has successfully transitioned from a niche platform to a leading PUGC video platform, with MAU and DAU reaching historical highs [32] - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, driven by high-margin advertising and gaming businesses [33] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.48 billion, 33.66 billion, and 45.76 billion yuan, with a significant upside potential in stock valuation [34]

Group 1 - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 4.316 billion, representing a 22.17% increase in net inflow ratio [2][3] - Alibaba-W (09988) experienced a net inflow of 1.658 billion, with a net inflow ratio of 13.70% [2][3] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net inflow of 588 million, with a net inflow ratio of 17.52% [2][3] Group 2 - Kangfang Biotech (09926) faced a net outflow of -285 million, with a net outflow ratio of -33.89% [2][3] - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a net outflow of -248 million, with a net outflow ratio of -1.88% [2][3] - Yum China (09987) recorded a net outflow of -213 million, with a net outflow ratio of -30.90% [2][3] Group 3 - Huaxia Hang Seng Technology (03088) led in net inflow ratio at 89.30% with a net inflow of 54.532 million [2][3] - Southern East Selection (03441) followed with a net inflow ratio of 68.86% and a net inflow of 14.5209 million [2][3] - China Foods (00506) had a net inflow ratio of 59.26% with a net inflow of 4.9995 million [2][3] Group 4 - Jinyuan International (02232) had the highest net outflow ratio at -50.27% with a net outflow of -40.079 million [3] - iFlytek Medical Technology (02506) recorded a net outflow ratio of -49.63% with a net outflow of -15.2262 million [3] - Sinopec Crown (00934) had a net outflow ratio of -45.08% with a net outflow of -5.1472 million [3]

文：向善财经 创始人现场上演咏春对打，沈腾惊喜现身，生生把严肃的年会搞成大联欢。 没错！这就是别人家的年会现场。 更让人气不过的是，这场年会的热度还没褪去，泡泡玛特就交出了一份惊艳的年度成绩单，用实打实的销量证明了自己在潮玩赛道的绝对领跑地位。 数据显示，2025 年泡泡玛特全球员工规模突破 1 万人，注册会员数成功迈过 1 亿大关；爆款 IP LABUBU 系列全年销量超 1 亿只，全品类 IP 产品总销量高 达 4 亿只。 如今的泡泡玛特，业务版图已覆盖 100 多个国家和地区，全球门店数量超 700 家，手握 6 大供应链基地，更为全球创造了超 20 万个就业岗位。 //2025，情绪经济大年 2025年是消费市场公认的情绪经济大年，那啥是情绪经济？ 说白了，就是大家的消费观念变天了——以前买东西，看的是实用、性价比，现在掏钱，先问"能不能让我开心"，情绪价值必须拉满，这就是当下最火的情 绪经济。 拿日本的三丽鸥来说，上个世纪末的日本年轻人生活、工作压力普遍比较大，情绪需要放松，于是，HelloKitty 就这么火了。 直到现在，HelloKitty依然还是三丽鸥这家公司的台柱子。 说回现在的我们，生活 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has announced significant growth in its global sales and revenue for 2025, driven by its successful IPs, particularly THE MONSTERS series, which has become a global phenomenon [3][4]. Group 1: Sales and Revenue Performance - In 2025, Pop Mart's global sales of all IP products are expected to exceed 400 million units, with THE MONSTERS series alone surpassing 100 million units [3]. - For the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 362.8% [3]. - By the third quarter of 2025, revenue is projected to grow by 245%-250%, with domestic revenue increasing by 185%-190% and overseas revenue by 365%-370% [4]. Group 2: Key IP Performance - In the first half of 2025, 13 IPs generated over 100 million yuan in revenue, with 5 IPs exceeding 1 billion yuan, including THE MONSTERS, MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO [4]. - THE MONSTERS series, particularly LABUBU, achieved the highest revenue of 4.81 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 668.0%, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The global trend toy market is projected to grow from $20.3 billion in 2020 to $52 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.8% [5]. - Competitors in the trend toy sector, such as Miniso and 52TOYS, are intensifying their efforts, prompting Pop Mart to solidify its competitive advantages and build a strong market position [5]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To maintain IP engagement, it is suggested that Pop Mart learn from Disney by enriching IPs with deeper stories and cultural elements, and by fostering closer connections with consumers [5]. - Developing proprietary IPs and enhancing membership benefits are seen as crucial strategies for extending customer loyalty and lifecycle [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total sales of over 400 million units across all categories by 2025, with the product line "THE MONSTERS" alone projected to exceed 100 million units in global sales [2][3] - The company's IP matrix is healthy, with recent hits expected to accelerate IP potential growth during the Spring Festival, indicating strong operational capabilities and overseas expansion potential [2][4] - The current valuation is considered low, with room for recovery, and the company is expected to maintain its profitability forecasts, with net profits projected to grow significantly from 120.2 billion to 208.9 billion from 2025 to 2027 [2][10] Summary by Sections Sales and Distribution - The company announced that by the end of 2025, it will have over 700 global stores, covering more than 100 countries and regions, supported by six major supply chain bases [3] IP Matrix and Product Innovation - The company's IP matrix, anchored by LABUBU and supported by other established IPs like MOLLY and SKULLPANDA, showcases a wide range of styles and strong growth potential [4] - Recent product launches, such as the PUCKY series and collaborations like SKULLPANDA × My Little Pony, have demonstrated the company's innovation capabilities, with significant demand and price premiums observed in the market [6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 120.2 billion, 170.5 billion, and 208.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% [2][10] - Current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 27.3, 19.3, and 15.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart announced that by 2025, global sales of all IP and product categories will exceed 400 million units, with THE MONSTERS category alone exceeding 100 million units [1]. Group 1: 2025 Growth Analysis - The company experienced a typical "single super IP + category breakthrough" growth, with revenue expanding nearly threefold year-on-year, driven primarily by Labubu's global popularity and significant monetization efficiency from plush toys [1][3]. - HSBC's analysis indicates that revenue from The Monsters (Labubu) is expected to grow approximately 582% year-on-year, contributing an estimated 47% to total revenue, while plush toy revenue is projected to grow about 720%, contributing 60% [3][10]. - Excluding the contributions from The Monsters and plush toys, the company still anticipates a revenue growth of approximately 106% and 51% respectively, indicating that the existing business is not stagnant [10]. Group 2: 2026 Projections - HSBC predicts that the "rush-to-buy" effect will fade, normalizing the ARPU of repeat members, which will shift growth back to a standard retail expansion model. Consequently, revenue growth forecasts for 2026 have been adjusted down from 30.6% to 23.7% [4][11]. - The company expects PRC revenue growth of about 13.0% and overseas growth of approximately 35.7% in 2026, with the latter serving as a buffer against domestic ARPU declines [12]. Group 3: Valuation and Future IP Development - HSBC believes that the market has already begun to price in the "Labubu lifecycle risk" through valuation compression, with a significant drop in forward PE ratios despite a 394% increase in one-year forward EPS since early 2025 [13]. - UBS highlights the strong initial performance of the new IP Twinkle, with significant sales figures during key promotional periods, indicating potential for future growth [13][14]. - Both HSBC and UBS view upcoming data as critical validation points for assessing performance in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the U.S. [14].