证 券 研 究 报 告 泡泡玛特（09992.HK）2025 年一季度经营数据点评 强推（维持） 收入超预期增长，IP 生态全面升级中 目标价：210 港元 事项： 公司公布 1Q25 业务状况，预计收入同增 165%-170%（未经审计），超出此前 业绩会 100%指引，其中中国业务（注：港澳台从海外调入中国业务）同比增 长 95%-100%，线下渠道同比增长 85%-90%，线上渠道同比增长 140%-145%； 海外业务同比增长 475%~480%，亚太同比增长 345%~350%，美洲同比增长 895%~900%，欧洲同比增长 600%~605%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 13,038 | 24,825 | 34,091 | 43,480 | | 同比增速(%) | 105.5% | 90.4% | 37.3% | 27.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 3,125 | 6,249 | 8,8 ...

今年《哪吒2》的爆火，带飞了联名的国产卡牌，也让卡游这家"卖卡牌"的公司出了圈。 从当初的奥特曼到去年的小马宝莉，再到今年的哪吒系列卡牌，卡游正从昔日的中小学生"心头好"，向更广阔的消费圈层突破。日前，作为集换式卡牌行 业唯一的龙头，它正式向港股发起了冲刺。 依靠售价2元一包的小小卡牌，卡游成了"IP印钞机"。在2024年，公司突破百亿元营收大关，经调整净利润达到44.66亿元，综合毛利率高达67.3%，甚至 超过了泡泡玛特，堪称国内赚钱能力最强的一家玩具公司。 创办卡游的浙江衢州大佬李奇斌，今年已经53岁。在卡游提交招股书前，他2024年从公司领走了18亿元的天价薪酬。一旦卡游成功上市，李奇斌的身家， 也将迎来暴涨。 市场上最会赚钱的玩具公司 "刚看完《哪吒2》电影时，我抽卡上头了。"一位年轻白领小吕说。尽管自己是成年人，但对这个IP的喜爱，仍然让她忍不住下单。整个2月，她在直播间 里陆续花费了近1万元。"或许等热度过了，它们就不过是一张纸片。但至少在那时，我是真心因为里面的角色喜欢它"。 当哪吒联名卡牌成为现象级产品时，原本小众的国产卡牌行业以及卡游这家公司，也在大众视野内露出头角。 卡游两次递交的招股说 ...

中金：泡泡玛特(09992.HK)首季度国内外收入增长均胜预期 升目标价29%至220港元 金十数据4月25日讯，中金发表研报指，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)2025财年第一季预计收入按年增长165%至 170%，增速按季比较进一步提升。当中，中国(包括港澳台)收入按年增长95%至100%；海外市场收入 按年增长475%至480%，均超越该行及市场预期，主要由于中国国内同店表现优秀，以及海外热度高 企。中金提及，考虑到公司重点IP优质新品储备丰富、北美市场热度持续走高，故分别上调2025及2026 财年经调整净利润预测10%及8%，至分别64亿及79.2亿元人民币，同时上调目标价29%至220港元，相 当于预测今明两年经调整市盈率分别44倍及35倍，给予"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 165%-170% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with domestic revenue growth of 95%-100% and overseas revenue growth of 475%-480% [6][11]. - The company is experiencing strong growth in overseas markets, particularly in the Americas and Europe, with revenue increases of 895%-900% and 600%-605% respectively [8]. - The company is expanding its product categories and IP offerings, with a notable increase in the number of stores and online sales channels [8][11]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of April 22, 2025, the company's stock has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-month performance of 31.0%, 3-month performance of 87.5%, and a 12-month performance of 430.6% [5]. - The current stock price is HKD 175.90, with a total market capitalization of HKD 236.22 billion [5]. Revenue Growth - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to grow by 165%-170% year-on-year, with domestic revenue growth of 95%-100% and overseas revenue growth of 475%-480% [6][11]. - The company has opened 14 new stores in Q1 2025, with a total of 138 overseas stores [8]. Product Expansion - The company launched 19 new blind box products in Q1 2025, with strong market performance for several series [8]. - The company is accelerating the launch of MEGA and plush product lines, with 11 new MEGA products introduced in Q1 2025 [9]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of RMB 239.63 billion, RMB 330.69 billion, and RMB 412.41 billion respectively [11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 60.82 billion, RMB 86.32 billion, and RMB 109.58 billion for the same period [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 165%-170% year-on-year for Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas markets [7] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the trendy toy market, with a notable increase in market share from 8.5% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021, supported by its strong IP creation and operational capabilities [7] - The company has undergone a global organizational restructuring to enhance operational efficiency, with clearer reporting lines across regions [7] - The company is expected to achieve substantial profit growth, with projected net profits of 6.36 billion RMB, 8.90 billion RMB, and 11.59 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 103.47%, 39.98%, and 30.20% [8] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 6,301 million RMB in 2023 to 23,122 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 77.35% [6][8] - The company's net profit is expected to increase significantly, with a forecast of 6,359 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 103.47% [6][8] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 37.31% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 165-170% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with domestic growth of 95-100% and overseas growth of 475-480% [1][8] - The overseas market, particularly in the Americas and Europe, is experiencing explosive growth, driven by a female-oriented collectible toy market and successful localization strategies [8] - The company is expanding its product categories and leveraging its IP value, with new product launches and collaborations expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 6,301 million - 2024: 13,038 million - 2025E: 23,058 million - 2026E: 31,308 million - 2027E: 39,254 million - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts are updated to: - 2025E: 6,493 million - 2026E: 9,413 million - 2027E: 11,911 million [3][9] - The company’s return on equity is projected to be 36.9% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 34 [3][9] Market Data - As of April 23, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is HKD 178.50, with a market capitalization of HKD 2,397.15 billion [4][8] - The stock has shown a significant performance compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index over the past year [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded revenue expectations, with a significant increase in both domestic and international markets. The revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to grow by 165%-170%, with domestic revenue increasing by 95%-100% and international revenue by 475%-480% [8] - The company continues to leverage its IP value, with strong sales performance from new product lines driving revenue growth. The organization is undergoing structural upgrades to enhance its global strategy and operational efficiency [8] - The financial forecasts have been adjusted upwards, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 revised to 64.78 billion, 93.57 billion, and 118.91 billion respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's growth trajectory [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,301 million, with a year-on-year growth of 36.46%. By 2027, total revenue is expected to reach 43,460 million, with a growth rate of 25.14% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,082 million in 2023, growing to 11,156 million by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 127.55% to 27.33% over the period [1] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 0.81 in 2023 to 8.31 in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [1] Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on deepening its presence in the Chinese market while enhancing its international operations through a revamped organizational structure aimed at accelerating growth in overseas markets [8] - The company has reported impressive sales from new product launches, which are expected to continue driving revenue growth in the upcoming quarters [8] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio is 205.16, which is expected to decrease to 19.90 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [1] - The projected P/B ratio is 20.55, reflecting the company's strong asset base and growth potential [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in both domestic and international markets, with Q1 2025 revenue expected to increase by 165%-170% year-on-year, driven by a 95%-100% increase in domestic revenue and a 475%-480% increase in international revenue [1][2] - The company is expanding its online and offline channels in the domestic market, achieving an 85%-90% increase in offline revenue and a 140%-145% increase in online revenue in Q1 2025 [1] - The international business has seen remarkable growth across regions, with Asia-Pacific revenue increasing by 345%-350%, Americas by 895%-900%, and Europe by 600%-605% in Q1 2025 [2] - The company is enhancing its brand value through effective IP management and collaborations with anime, gaming, and other copyright entities, which is expected to solidify its leading position in the collectible toy market [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Channels - The company is innovating in scene-based and entertainment-driven strategies to enhance product operation capabilities, effectively linking online and offline traffic through holiday marketing [1] - The launch of the global flagship store for Hirono in Shanghai marks a significant step in brand-oriented operations, focusing on emotional engagement with consumers [1] International Channels - The company is implementing differentiated operational strategies tailored to various international markets, leveraging platforms like Shopee, Lazada, and Amazon to enhance brand exposure and sales [2] - Creative live-streaming activities on platforms like TikTok are attracting younger audiences and driving sales through engaging content [2] Product Strategy - The company is extending its existing IP expressions and collaborating with various media to create unique collectible experiences, thereby deepening the cultural value of its IP [3] - The forecast for revenue growth is optimistic, with projected revenues of 238.00 billion, 308.00 billion, and 361.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 55.38 billion, 71.72 billion, and 85.95 billion [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth projections [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 165-170% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with the Chinese market growing by 95-100% and the overseas market by 475-480% [1]. - The performance in the domestic market showed offline channel growth of 85-90% and online channel growth of 140-145% [1]. - The overseas market saw remarkable growth, with the Asia-Pacific region increasing by 345-350%, the Americas by 895-900%, and Europe by 600-605% [1]. - The company is expanding its global footprint, with new store openings in the U.S. and a strong online presence in various international markets [3]. - The company is expected to enter a high-growth cycle, with projected net profits of 60.1 billion, 88.7 billion, and 117.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company's domestic e-commerce GMV reached 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236% [2]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 13,038 million, 22,079 million, 31,093 million, and 39,522 million yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 107%, 69%, 41%, and 27% [7]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 3,125 million, 6,009 million, 8,865 million, and 11,734 million yuan, with growth rates of 189%, 92%, 48%, and 32% [7]. Market Expansion - The company has been actively opening new stores overseas, particularly in the U.S., and plans to continue this expansion [3]. - The company initiated a global structural upgrade to enhance local management and improve operational efficiency [3]. Product Development - The company has launched several new products, including various collectible figures and merchandise, which have been well-received in the market [2].