Group 1 - The core argument of the article revolves around the evolution of economic models, particularly the transition from a dual economy to a consumption-driven economy, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand expansion as a key driver of GDP growth [2][6][15] - The article references the Lewis model and its relevance today, suggesting that while the model may not fully capture current economic realities, its insights into the transition from agriculture to industry and the eventual rise of consumption remain significant [2][6] - The article discusses the three stages of economic development as proposed by economists Fei and Ranis, highlighting the shift from surplus labor in agriculture to increased wages and consumption in industrial sectors [5][8] Group 2 - The article outlines the three stages of consumption investment, indicating that the current economic environment is likely in the second stage, where the focus is on "improvement-type" consumption [7][8] - It identifies sectors that will benefit from this transition, including utilities, durable goods, and healthcare in the first stage, followed by high-end durable goods and leisure in the second stage, and finally, elder care and related services in the third stage [8] - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying "new consumption" related companies in the Hong Kong market, which are expected to thrive under the current economic conditions [9][11] Group 3 - The article provides a list of companies in the Hong Kong market that are part of the Hang Seng Consumption Index, including well-known brands in various sectors such as dining, sportswear, and home appliances [10][11] - It highlights the performance of the Hang Seng Consumption ETF, noting its significant liquidity and tracking accuracy, which makes it an attractive investment vehicle for those looking to capitalize on the consumption trend [12][13] - The article concludes with a summary of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," indicating a shift from an export-oriented economy to a consumption-driven one, focusing on high-quality goods and services [14][15]

【环球网财经报道 记者 王楠】在繁华的北京街头，一家潮流玩具店内，年轻人们正簇拥在潮玩手办前挑选心仪的款式。这家店的背后，是潮流玩具市场的 领头羊——泡泡玛特。 2024年，对于泡泡玛特而言，是充满挑战与机遇的一年。在国内市场继续巩固领先地位的同时，泡泡玛特在海外市场也实现了跨越式的增长。在3月26日举 办的2024年年度业绩发布会上，泡泡玛特管理层透露，全年港澳台地区及海外营收达到了50.7亿元人民币，相比2023年实现了375.2%的惊人增长。这一成绩 不仅标志着泡泡玛特全球化战略的持续深化，也证明了其品牌在全球市场的竞争力和吸引力。 特别是在东南亚市场，泡泡玛特的增长速度尤为亮眼，泰国等国家的销售额大幅增长，单店平均效率实现了160%的同比增幅。这些成绩的取得，离不开泡 泡玛特对本土化运营的深入推进和精准的市场策略。从产品设计到营销活动，泡泡玛特都紧密结合了当地的文化和消费习惯，成功赢得了消费者的青睐。 而泡泡玛特出海的成功，并非一蹴而就。这背后，是其对IP核心竞争力的坚守与拓展。首席运营官司德在发布会上表示，泡泡玛特始终坚持以IP为核心，通 过消费品、服务与体验和娱乐三大板块开展业务。这种以IP为驱动 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 exceeded market expectations, with significant improvements in profit margins [5] - The growth is driven by both overseas expansion and a dual-category strategy focusing on IP and product diversification [6][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.04 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 106.9%, and a net profit of 3.125 billion RMB, up 188.8% [6][9] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 3.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 185.9% [6][9] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 66.8%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China reached 7.97 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 52.3%, accounting for 61.1% of total revenue [6] - Overseas revenue, including Hong Kong, Macau, and other international markets, was 5.07 billion RMB, showing a remarkable year-over-year growth of 375.2% [6] Operational Efficiency - The operating profit margin improved to 33.1% in mainland China, up 9.4 percentage points year-over-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.8146 RMB per share, totaling 1.094 billion RMB, which represents 35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 21.75 billion RMB, 30.67 billion RMB, and 38.21 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.52 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 76.5% [9] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in the trendy toy culture and commercialization, leveraging its full industry chain and platform advantages [8]

潮玩的高增长和盈利能力吸引大量资本关注，从泡泡玛特重回千亿市值、布鲁可顺利上市， 到TOP TOY、52TOYS的上市传闻。 叶国富2022年的豪言，"希望可以在三年内让TOP TOY实现单独上市"，似乎变得更近了。 潮玩赛道的估值逻辑源于"赛道预期+业绩兑现"。在高增长阶段下，业绩不断验证增长，资 本市场也愿意给出高估值，反之则要重估。 站在名创优品的角度，TOP TOY在名创体系内并没有享受到潮玩估值红利，除了品牌推出 短暂提振了名创股价，目前名创优品的市盈率在15.8倍。 若是参考泡泡玛特市盈率108倍，布鲁可22.4亿年营收对应268亿港元市值。TOP TOY独立后 或可享受超百亿估值。这是一个明智之选。 目前全球潮玩市场仍是海阔天空，TOPTOY想以此鱼跃。 名创优品旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY又开始活跃起来。 3月初，市场传闻名创优品计划分拆旗下潮玩品牌TOP TOY在香港上市，筹集资金约3亿美金。不过截 至目前，名创优品及TOP TOY未作回应。 3月22日下午，TOP TOY召开战略升级发布会，宣布启动全球化，目标是未来5年覆盖全球100个国家核 心商圈，开设超1000家门店。 在名创优品最新财 ...

轻工制造/文娱用品 泡泡玛特（09992.HK） 2025 年 03 月 28 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/27 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 153.70 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 160.00/28.100 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 2,064.10 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 2,064.10 | | 总股本(亿股) | 13.43 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 13.43 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 37.25 | 国际化战略成效显著，2024 收入业绩高增 ——港股公司信息更新报告 | lvming@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790520030002 | 吕明（分析师） 骆扬（联系人） 蒋奕峰（联系人） luoyang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122120029 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -120% 0% 120% 240% 360% 480% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 泡泡玛特 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 收入增长超预期，国内线上 业务增 ...

从年报看潮玩谷子高景气：泡泡玛特、布鲁可、万代、三 丽鸥 20250327 摘要 Q&A 潮玩行业在 2022 年之后迎来收入爆发的原因是什么？ 潮玩行业在 2022 年之后迎来收入爆发的主要原因有几个方面。首先是消费习惯 的培养，特别是在中国和大亚洲地区，随着少子化时代的到来，月度消费背景 下，一代人的消费习惯逐渐形成。其次是国内优秀企业的崛起，这些企业不仅 依靠低成本制造优势，更重要的是拥有强大的用户思维、用户社群运营能力和 • 泡泡玛特 2024 年总收入达 130 亿元，同比增长 107%，国内市场增长 52%， 海外市场增长 30%，经调整纯利润 34 亿元，同比增长 186%。下半年内地收 入增速 70.4%，港澳台地区增速高达 438%，显示强劲增长势头。 • 泡泡玛特 IP 扩展能力显著提升，Score Ten 和拉布布成长为 10 亿级别 IP， 小伟、迪西等成单品爆款。产品结构优化，盲盒比例降至 60%左右，MEGA 等新品类涌现，并拓展至毛绒等品类，实现多元化发展。 • 布鲁可 2024 年营业收入 22.4 亿，同比增长 156%，毛利率 52.6%，同比增 长 5.3 个百分点，调整 ...

Core Insights - In 2024, Pop Mart achieved a record annual revenue of 13.038 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 106.9% [1] - The second half of the year saw revenue reach 8.480 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 143.2%, and profit growth soaring by 283.3% [1] - Key highlights include a significant rise in overseas market revenue, which accounted for 38.9% of total revenue, driven by IP operations and product structure optimization [1] Group 1: Overseas Market Growth - The revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and overseas markets reached 5.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 375.2%, making up 38.9% of total revenue [2] - Southeast Asia was the standout region, generating 2.403 billion yuan (up 619.1%), accounting for 18.4% of total revenue; North America also saw a significant growth of 556.9%, with revenue of 723 million yuan [2] - The company accelerated its offline channel expansion, adding 50 retail stores to reach a total of 130, and increasing the number of robot stores by 73 to 192, with new locations in Vietnam and Italy [2] Group 2: IP Operations and Product Strategy - In 2024, 13 IPs generated over 1 billion yuan in revenue, with THEMONSTERS leading at 3.041 billion yuan (up 726.6%), followed by MOLLY at 2.093 billion yuan (up 105.2%) and CRYBABY at 1.165 billion yuan (up 1537.2%) [3] - The diversified product strategy and penetration into overseas markets have strengthened the core IPs, with LABUBU's plush products driving a 1289% increase in plush category revenue to 2.832 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin improved by 5.46 percentage points to 66.79%, with the second half gross margin reaching 68.26% [5] - Continuous improvement in expenses led to a decrease in sales expense ratio by 3.82 percentage points to 28.00% and a reduction in management expense ratio by 3.96 percentage points to 7.26% [5] - The net profit margin increased to 26.10%, driven by scale effects and enhanced supply chain efficiency [5] Group 4: Product Diversification and Membership Engagement - The revenue from figurines accounted for 53.2% (6.936 billion yuan) of total revenue, remaining the core category; plush products increased their revenue share to 21.7% [6] - The MEGA series and derivative products saw significant growth, with revenues of 1.684 billion yuan (up 146.1%) and 1.586 billion yuan (up 156.2%), respectively [6] - The total registered members in mainland China reached 46.083 million, with 11.729 million new members, contributing 92.7% of sales and a repurchase rate of 49.4% [7] Conclusion - Pop Mart's IP-centric strategy has fully materialized in 2024, with overseas expansion and product innovation serving as dual engines for growth [8] - The enhancement of supply chain capabilities, deepening global channels, and expanding the IP ecosystem have clarified the company's "brand upward" path [8]

2025 年 3 月 27 日 公司研究 潮玩景气度延续高增，加速拓展海外市场 ——泡泡玛特（9992.HK）24 年业绩点评 要点 事件：公司实现营收 130.4 亿元人民币（yoy+106.9%），实现毛利润 87.1 亿元，同比增长 125.4%，对应毛利率为 66.8%，同比提升 5.5pct；实现 经调整净利润 34.0 亿元（yoy+185.7%），对应净利率 26.1%。 投资建议：公司强 IP 运营能力持续巩固护城河，爆款 IP 加持叠加 IP 多品 类变现，24 年国内和海外地区收入加速增长。25Q1 国内增长情况超预期， 公司计划 25 年加速海外开店，海外市场空间广阔，上修 25-26 年经调整 净利润预测至 65/96 亿元（较上次预测+67%/+100%），新增 27 年经调 整净利润预测 123 亿元；维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：IP 热度下降、海外市场拓展不及预期、用户付费意愿下降。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营 ...

"2024年我们取得了历史最好业绩，不管净利率还是毛利率都提升显著。"3月26日，泡泡玛特董事长兼 CEO王宁在2024年年度业绩发布会上表示。 3月27日，泡泡玛特当日最高涨幅达13.72%。截至收盘，报收153.7港元/股，市值2064.1亿港元。 市场的火热与泡泡玛特业绩的增长紧密相关。泡泡玛特2024年财报显示，2024年公司实现营收130.4亿 元，同比增长106.9%；非国际财务报告准则经调整净利润34.0亿元，同比增长185.9%，创历史新高。 公司对2025年业绩展现出乐观的态度，王宁表示："2025年希望集团整体销售能突破200亿元，海外销售 超百亿元。尽管基数越来越大，但公司整体充满信心。" 全球化进程顺利扩展 四大IP收入均突破10亿元 泡泡玛特全球扩张的步伐从未停歇，在2024年迎来最佳成绩。 财报显示，泡泡玛特2024年中国内地营收79.7亿元，同比增长52.3%；海外业务营收50.7亿元，同比增 长375.2%，收入占比达38.9%。 截至2024年12月31日，泡泡玛特海外门店达130家，机器人商店达到192台，业务版图已遍及全球近百个 国家及地区。海外市场线上渠道全年营收14. ...

3月27日，南下资金净买入港股41.42亿港元。 其中，净买入泡泡玛特7.24亿、阿里巴巴-W 3.64亿、美团-W 3.17亿、快手-W 1.55亿； 净卖出盈富基金14.42亿、恒生中国企业11.43亿、小米集团-W 4.47亿。 | | 沖股通 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | 名称 | | 小米集团-W | -4.2% | -2.08 | 78.04亿 | 小米集团-W | | 中芯国际 | 4.2% | -0.92 | 44.85 Z | 中芯国际 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 0.5% | 5.95 | 24.00亿 | 阿里巴巴-W | | 腾讯控股 | 0.5% | 1.28 | 23.99亿 | 腾讯控股 | | 泡泡玛特 | 9.2% | 0.56 | 17.55亿 | 泡泡玛特 | | 盈富長金 | 0.4% | -14.42 | 14.48 Z | 恒生中国企业 | | 信达生物 | 17.4% | 0.39 | 12.87 Z | 信达生物 | | 快手 W | 1.3% | -0.3 ...