北京时间1月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，暂停了此前连 续三次的降息。中信证券海外宏观联席首席分析师李翀表示，结合本次利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔在 任期间，美联储或不再实施降息操作。 通胀层面，李翀分析说，若不新增关税，鲍威尔将预计关税通胀见顶的时间从一季度后移至年中，这是 相较于2025年12月会议偏鹰的表态。加之特朗普多次释放关税威胁，新政策落地存疑，预计鲍威尔任内 剩余两次会议将暂停降息。 资产价格方面，美股、美债及美元波动温和。在偏鹰会议背景下，贵金属价格大幅走高，其走势主要受 地缘因素与市场情绪驱动。 美联储此次议息会议声明与前次差异显著，李翀总结四方面调整：一是经济活动表述从"以温和步伐扩 张"改为"以稳健步伐扩张"；二是就业表述更新为"就业增长仍处较低水平，失业率显现稳定迹象"，此 前表述为"就业增长放缓、失业率截至9月略有上升，近期指标与上述一致"；三是通胀表述精简为"通胀 仍偏高"，删除了"较年初有所上行"的表述；四是风险判断删除"近期就业下行风险上升"，仅保留"关注 双重使命两侧风险"。 就业市场方面，李翀认为，美国虽维持"低招聘+低裁员"格局 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks have generally risen, with several firms reporting positive earnings forecasts, indicating a strong performance outlook for the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, China Galaxy (601881) increased by 4.49% to HKD 10.94, Everbright Securities (601788) rose by 3.4% to HKD 9.13, China Merchants Securities (600999) gained 3.41% to HKD 15.15, and CITIC Securities (600030) went up by 3.1% to HKD 29.9 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Data shows that as of January 28, 21 brokerage firms that have disclosed earnings forecasts or preliminary reports expect a total net profit of CNY 107.58 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 60% [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the active trading environment and the recovery of investment banking and public asset management businesses confirm the high growth trend in brokerage earnings for 2025 [1] Group 3: Future Opportunities - By 2026, wealth management and international business are expected to provide opportunities for brokerages, while mergers and acquisitions will optimize competitive behavior and improve resource allocation efficiency [1] - Demand for derivative products is anticipated to unlock the leverage ceiling for brokerages [1]

消息面上，近日，多家上市券商业绩预喜。有数据显示，截至1月28日，已披露业绩预告或快报的21家 券商，预计净利润总额达1075.87亿元，同比增幅近六成。申万宏源认为，在交投活跃度提升和投行、 公募资管业务底部复苏背景下，券商25年业绩高增态势得到确认。2026年，财富管理、国际业务给券商 发挥功能性带来机遇，并购重组优化券商竞争行为&提高资源配置效率，衍生品等客需业务打开券商杠 杆天花板。 智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股普遍上扬，截至发稿，中国银河(06881)涨4.49%，报10.94港元；光大证 券(06178)涨3.4%，报9.13港元；招商证券(06099)涨3.41%，报15.15港元；中信证券(06030)涨3.1%，报 29.9港元。 ...

中国经济网北京1月29日讯 首都在线(300846.SZ)昨晚发布2025年度业绩预告显示，预计2025年实现 营业收入12亿元至13亿元，同比下降6.93%-14.09%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损1.6亿元至1.75亿 元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损1.82亿元至1.97亿元。 首都在线2020年6月30日发布的上市公告书显示，公司募集资金总额为16,850.00万元，募集资金净 额为12,157.93万元。首都在线2020年6月17日发布的招股书显示，公司拟募集资金12,157.93万元，计划 用于首都在线GIC平台技术升级项目、首都在线对象存储项目、首都在线云宽冰山存储项目。 首都在线首次公开发行股票发行费用为4,692.07万元，其中，中信证券股份有限公司获得承销及保 荐费3,301.89万元。 2022年2月15日，首都在线发布2021年度向特定对象发行A股股票之上市公告书。大华会计师事务 所（特殊普通合伙）对本次发行募集资金到达发行人账户情况进行了审验，并于2022年1月24日出具了 《北京首都在线科技股份有限公司验资报告》（大华验字（2022）第000037号）。根据该报告，截至 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 3.5-3.75% during the January 2026 meeting, aligning with market expectations, and indicated stability in the U.S. unemployment rate, with no further rate cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings under Powell's chairmanship [1][2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, with a split vote where two members supported a 25 basis points cut [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet management includes reinvesting maturing Treasury securities and managing reserves, with approximately $15.4 billion in reinvestment purchases planned from January 15 to February 12, 2026 [2]. - Economic indicators show steady expansion, with employment growth remaining low and inflation still elevated, while the Fed aims for full employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2% [2]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Assessment - The Fed's language shifted from "moderate pace" to "solid pace" regarding economic activity, indicating a more robust outlook [3]. - Employment language was adjusted to reflect signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, contrasting with previous assessments of rising unemployment risks [3]. - The inflation description was simplified to indicate it remains elevated, with the previous mention of rising downside risks to employment removed [3]. Group 3: Powell's Statements and Economic Outlook - Powell stated that the policy rate is in a good position and revised the expected peak of tariff-induced inflation from Q1 to mid-year [4][5]. - He highlighted the K-shaped economic recovery, where high-income individuals significantly contribute to consumption, driven by asset appreciation and AI-related investments [5][6]. - Powell expressed concerns about affordability but noted that the Fed's tools are limited in addressing structural issues like K-shaped economic disparities [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The company anticipates no further rate cuts in Powell's remaining meetings, with asset prices showing minimal volatility in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while gold prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [7]. - The employment market is described as balanced, with low hiring and low layoffs, indicating no immediate pressure for further rate reductions [7].

科技创新债券发行业务 国家开发银行 中国农业银行股份有限公司 中国银行股份有限公司 交通银行股份有限公司 上海浦东发展银行股份有限公司 中信银行股份有限公司 兴业银行股份有限公司 中国邮政储蓄银行股份有限公司 中国进出口银行 中信证券股份有限公司 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 华泰证券股份有限公司 年度债市领军人物 << 中国农业银行资产负债管理部总经理 壬雷勇 陈颖轩 中国建设银行资产托管业务部总经理 王海璐 中国工商银行金融市场部总经理 宋福宁 中国银行金融市场部总经理 国家开发银行资金部副总经理 于会服 蔭宏立 上海东东发展银行金$市场总监。 首席经济学家、研究院执行院长 8 裝 交通银行金融市场部总经理 牛天雪 中国农业发展银行资金部副总经理 年度开拓贡献机构 ~~ 年度债市领军机构 200 中国农业银行股份有限公司 中国建设银行股份有限公司 中国工商银行股份有限公司 中国银行股份有限公司 国家开发银行 上海浦东发展银行股份有限公司 交通银行股份有限公司 中国农业发展银行 中信银行运营管理部总经理 凯 林榕辉 兴业银行资金营运中心总经理 郭佳鹏 中国邮政储蓄银行金融市场部副总经理 高 此 中国进出口银行资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its spring rally from late December 2025, with a focus on large-cap stocks before the Lunar New Year and better performance in growth sectors supported by policy directions [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The performance expectations for Hong Kong stocks have significantly adjusted, with a slowdown in the downward revision of earnings forecasts since late December 2025 [1] - The average return of the Hang Seng Index during the spring rally over the past eleven years is 2.4%, with a weekly win rate of 70.8%, particularly strong in 2019, 2021, and 2023, averaging a 10.6% increase [2] - The upcoming earnings reports for Hong Kong stocks are expected to be concentrated from late March to early April, indicating a period of performance vacuum [1][2] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Short-term investment focus should be on three main lines: 1) "14th Five-Year Plan" policy directions including biomanufacturing, embodied intelligence, and 6G; 2) food delivery platforms and real estate benefiting from policy-driven expectations; 3) non-bank financials benefiting from the spring rally [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide long-term investment opportunities, with strategic emerging industries like new energy, new materials, and quantum technology likely to receive policy support [3] Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The liquidity outlook for Hong Kong stocks is expected to improve as the market approaches the next peak of stock unlocks, with significant reductions in unlock amounts in January and February 2026 [1] - Historical data shows that net inflows from southbound trading in January and February account for an average of 19.3% and 27.9% of the annual total, respectively [2]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 港股市场|扰动已过，捕捉春季行情方向：2026年2月投资策略 来源：中信证券研究 文|徐广鸿 侯苏洋 陈采赋 2025年四季度导致港股下跌的业绩预期调整和资金面扰动已告一段落。而2015-2025年港股的春季躁动 行情中，恒指平均收益率为2.4%，期间平均周度胜率达70.8%，港股大盘股在春节前通常跑赢，而春节 后小盘股表现更为优异。随着地方两会的逐步召开，我们建议关注"十五五"规划建议和中央经济工作会 议的方向。展望2026年2月，港股业绩预期已有显著调整，叠加内外部资金面的扰动因素也已告一段 落，我们判断港股2025年12月下旬以来的春季行情或将延续，整体呈现春节前大盘股有相对收益，政策 方向支持的成长行业表现更优的态势。春季后需关注下一个解禁高峰期或对港股流动性预期的影响。短 期建议关注三大主线：1）"十五五"政策方向，包括生物制造、具身智能、6G等；2）政策推动基本预 期逆转的外卖平台和地产；3）受益于春季躁动的非银。 ▍基本面和资金面扰动因素已过。 基本面来看，2025年年底以 ...

中信证券研报称，分散染料的核心中间体还原物开启涨价，已从去年的2.5万元/吨飙升50%以上至3.8万 元/吨，历史上价格弹性较大，曾达10万元/吨以上。还原物供给高度集中，我们看好未来涨价的持续 性。还原物涨价或将推动染料继续涨价，并从中长期加速行业集中度提升。看好有核心中间体还原物配 套的一体化龙头企业。 ...

中信证券研报称，近期格陵兰事件中特朗普将领土主权议题与关税威胁联动，叠加达沃斯论坛期间美欧 高层公开对立，美欧裂痕在短期内集中显现。我们认为欧洲国防扩张的紧迫性、必要性和主动性均有上 升，预计欧洲国防扩张和重大基础设施投资计划推进节奏将加快，主权债券发行规模或进一步扩大，在 欧央行不重启购债的情况下，我们预计欧洲主权债券长端利率将继续上行。欧股方面，军工与安全相关 产业链 "确定性溢价"抬升，但整体指数易被美欧贸易摩擦等因素压制风险偏好。鉴于美债市场拥有独 特的市场深度和流动性、欧洲金融系统与美国深度绑定、以及欧洲缺乏把存量资产"国家化"并跨国一致 行动的制度基础，我们认为欧洲难以将抛售美债作为反制美国的工具。最后，在美欧分歧扩大、欧洲对 外经贸与安全环境不确定性上升的背景下，中欧加强务实合作的窗口期有望打开。 ...