证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年09月12日 三一重工（600031.SH） 优于大市 盈利能力回升，持续推进全球化发展 2024 上半年营收同比下降 2.16%，归母净利润同比增长 4.80%。公司 2024 上半年营收 390.06 亿元，同比下降 2.16%；归母净利润 35.73 亿元，同比增 长 4.80%。业绩增长主要系国内需求筑底企稳，海外市场竞争力增强，市场 份额持续扩大所致。毛利率/净利率分别为 28.24%/9.42%，同比变动 +0.03/+0.61pct，盈利能力增长主要由于高毛利海外业务占比提升，同时公 司持续推进降本增效措施。公司财务费用率同比增长 3.15 个 pct，主要系 2024 上半年公司汇兑损失 2.82 亿元，去年同期为汇兑收益 10.80 亿元。 海外营收占比提升，持续推进全球化。2024 上半年公司海外营收 235.42 亿 元，同比增长 4.79%，占总收入 60.78%，同比提升 4.49pct 个 pct，主要系 公司持续推进全球化战略，海外市场份额持续提升。分区域看，2024 年上半 年欧洲、亚澳地区实现小幅增长，美洲地区小幅下滑，非洲地区增长较快， 营收同比 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 11 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 三一重工（600031）首次覆盖 国内工程机械龙头，全球化布局持续推进 相关研究： 1.《20240807湘财证券-机械行 业：7月我国挖机销量同比增长 8.6%，装载机电动化率持续提 升》 公司评级：增持（首次覆盖） 近十二个月公司表现 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 23/09 23/11 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 三一重工 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|--------------------|-------|-------|---------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | % | 1 个月 | | 3 | 个月 | 12 个月 | | 相对收益 | | | | | 5.4 8.5 10.2 | | 绝对收益 | | | | | 1.0 -2.3 -4.6 | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 | | | 300 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 三一重工（ 600031） 首次覆盖 领军工程机械市场，四大优势打开向上发展空间 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-------------|-------| | [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（首次） | | | | 报告日期： 2024-09-11 | | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 15.29 | | | 近 12 个月最高 / 最低（元） | 17.32/12.42 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 8474.98 | | | 流通股本（百万股） | 8464.22 | | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.87 | | | 总市值（亿元） | 1319.55 | | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1317.88 | | | [ 公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 | 走势比较 | | -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 三一重工 沪深300 [分析师：张帆 Table_Author] 执业证书号：S001 ...

＃assAuthor＃ 公 司 跟 踪 报 告 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |--------------------|-----------| | | | | 日期 | 2024-9-6 | | 收盘价（元） | 16.13 | | 总股本（百万股） | 8474.98 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 8464.22 | | 净资产（百万元） | 69126.77 | | 总资产（百万元） | 156833.99 | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.15 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ shikang@xyzq.com.cn S1220517040001 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ guoyanan@xyzq.com.cn S0190522120004 石康 郭亚男 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 机械设备 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 ( ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） 投资要点 ＃⚫summary 公司发布＃ 2024 年半年报：2024H1 公司实现营收 390.60 亿元，YOY-2.16%；归 母净利润 ...

1 亿减持，带崩百亿市值！千万年薪高管也缺钱？三一重工为何突遭 高管集体减持 导语：背后居然也有卖方在吹票，机构在抬轿。 作者：市值风云 App：贝壳 XY 老话说得好：春江水暖鸭先知。 要问谁最了解一家公司的战略布局与业绩变化，答案非董监高莫属；要问一家公 司的价值几何，董监高更是心知肚明。可以说，一家公司董监高在公开市场中的 增持与减持，直观地反映了其对自家公司价值的肯定与否定。 9 月 9 日，千亿级巨头三一重工（600031.SH）股市遭重挫，全天放量下跌 5.52%， 市值单日蒸发 75 亿。而此番下跌的导火索，正是其在前一交易日披露的《股东 及董监高减持计划公告》！ 三一重工 < 用 600031.SH 交易中 -0.11 ▼ 15.1: 融 -0.72% 开 15.43 高 15.43 低 15.07 市盈率 ® 17.95 ... 19.00万手 额 2.89亿 换 0.22% 总市值 1282.26亿 最 国 三一重工股份有限公司股东及董监高减持股份计 .. (6:) l ඉ સ્ત્ર 84 5日 周K 月K 目K | 1 均线 ▼ | MA5:15.86 10:16.01 20:15.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next 6 months [11] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to recover, driven by rapid growth in overseas sales and cost reduction measures [2] - The company is making significant progress in electrification and globalization, with over 80 new energy products launched, including the SW956E electric loader and SY215E electric excavator [2] - Overseas revenue reached 23.542 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 62.23% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.57% [2] - The company's core products, such as excavators, concrete machinery, and cranes, maintain leading market share and sales levels in the industry [2] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 was 38.738 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.95% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.80% YoY to 3.573 billion yuan [1] - Operating cash flow surged by 2204.61% YoY to 8.438 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 21.076 billion yuan, down 2.92% YoY but up 19.33% QoQ, with net profit increasing by 5.52% YoY and 26.11% QoQ to 1.993 billion yuan [2] - Gross margin and net margin in Q2 2024 were 28.32% and 9.61%, respectively, showing slight improvements both YoY and QoQ [2] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 77.981 billion yuan in 2024E to 102.861 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 14.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 6.281 billion yuan in 2024E to 9.772 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.7% [1] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 8.5% in 2024E to 11.4% in 2026E, while EPS is expected to grow from 0.74 yuan in 2024E to 1.15 yuan in 2026E [1] Product and Market Performance - Excavator sales in H1 2024 were 15.215 billion yuan, up 0.43% YoY, while concrete machinery sales declined by 5.22% YoY to 7.957 billion yuan [2] - Road machinery sales increased by 15.74% YoY to 1.578 billion yuan in H1 2024 [2] - The company's SW956E electric loader secured a large order of 200 units in Indonesia, marking a significant breakthrough in electric product exports [2] Global Expansion - The company's overseas factories, including the second phase of the Indonesia plant and the India and South Africa plants, are under construction or have completed expansion [2] - Overseas revenue growth is supported by the company's strong presence in international markets and its focus on product localization [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - In August 2024, the company's excavator sales saw significant growth, particularly in the African region, indicating a successful global expansion strategy [1][2] - The domestic market has entered a stable upward trend, with small excavator sales increasing by 51% year-on-year, and medium excavators by 44% [2] - The overseas market is also recovering, with small excavator sales up 16% and medium excavators up 32% year-on-year [2] - The company's overseas revenue accounted for 62% of its main business income in the first half of 2024, with a total overseas sales revenue of 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2] - The company has established a strong presence in Africa, with sales reaching 3.5 billion yuan from January to August 2024, a growth of over 60% year-on-year [2] - The company's profitability and operational quality have improved, with a significant increase in operating cash flow by 2204% in the second quarter of 2024 [2][3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - In August 2024, small excavator sales increased by 51% year-on-year, medium excavators by 44%, and large excavators remained stable [2] - Non-excavator products like concrete and lifting machinery saw a narrowing decline [2] Overseas Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, overseas sales revenue reached 23.5 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of main business income, with notable growth in the African region at 66.7% [2] - The company has a strong foothold in Africa, with over 200 billion yuan in equipment sales since 2002 and a local service network established in 52 countries [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 39.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 4.8% to 3.57 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 28.24%, with a net margin of 9.42% [2][10] Industry Outlook - The global construction machinery industry is expected to improve due to increasing export market share, domestic demand recovery, and the initiation of a replacement cycle [3] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a net profit growth of 38%, 29%, and 22% respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 16, and 13 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic small excavator sales increasing by 51% year-on-year and overseas small excavator sales up by 16% [1] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in the domestic construction machinery market, supported by the issuance of government bonds and a large-scale equipment update policy [1] - The company's global manufacturing expansion is expected to enhance its market share, with significant growth opportunities in emerging markets like Africa [1] - Progress in electrification and new energy products is notable, with over 80 new energy products launched in the first half of 2024 [1] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 6.586 billion, 8.067 billion, and 10.127 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20x, 16x, and 13x [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2024, domestic small excavator sales increased by 51% year-on-year, medium excavators by 44%, and large excavators remained flat. Overseas small excavator sales grew by 16%, medium excavators by 32%, and large excavators by 63% [1] - Sales in Africa reached 3.5 billion yuan, up over 60% year-on-year [1] Market Recovery - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, aided by the commencement of government bond projects and the acceleration of old equipment replacement policies [1] - The company has established a strong presence in Africa, with over 60% localization and service coverage in 52 countries [1] Global Manufacturing Expansion - The company has a global market share of 4.2%, indicating significant room for growth compared to industry leaders [1] - Expansion projects in Indonesia, India, and South Africa are underway, which are expected to enhance global market share [1] Electrification and New Energy - The company has made advancements in electrification, with 30 low-carbon patents obtained in the first half of 2024 [1] - Major breakthroughs include securing a large order for 200 electric loaders in Indonesia and leading the industry in energy consumption performance for electric excavators [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 79.25 billion, 89.106 billion, and 102.811 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 7.1%, 12.4%, and 15.4% [1] - The projected net profit growth rates are 45.5%, 22.5%, and 25.5% for the same years [1]

三一重工（600031.SH）事件点评 新兴市场开拓顺利，国内&海外双回暖 2024 年 09 月 10 日 ➢ 事件：公司披露近期销售情况，2024 年 8 月，公司国内小挖销售台量同比 增长 51%、中挖增长 44%、大挖持平，非挖产品如混凝土机械、起重机械降幅 收窄；海外小挖销售台量同比增长 16%、中挖增长 32%、大挖增长 63%，非 挖产品如混凝土机械、起重机械延续上半年高增速。此外，2024 年 1-8 月，公 司在非洲销售额达 35 亿元，同比上升超过 60%。 ➢ 新兴市场开拓顺利，国内筑底复苏趋势明显。公司坚持高质量发展经营原则， 全面推进全球化、数智化、低碳化三大战略。以非洲为例，公司在非设立了 4 个 国区、14 个子公司、8 个代理商、50 个服务网点，本地化率超过 60%，为非洲 52 个国家和地区提供销售服务（非洲共 61 个国家和地区），自 2002 年以来在 非销售设备超 200 亿元，设备保有量超过 23000 台，位列中国工程机械企业产 品出口非洲的第一名。国内市场来看，2024 年开年以来，受益于万亿增发国债 相关项目陆续开工，市场需求端有所企稳。同时大规模设备更新政策 ...