Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the shipbuilding industry, specifically highlighting the performance of new ship orders in January and the pricing trends of new and second-hand ships [1][2]. Key Points - **January New Ship Orders**: - New ship orders reached 15.16 million DWT in January, showing a year-on-year increase of 59% and a month-on-month increase of 23%, indicating a continued upward acceleration [1]. - For the year 2025, after data revision, the total new orders are expected to exceed 156 million DWT, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -22% [1]. - **Order Breakdown**: - Significant growth in orders for oil tankers and gas carriers, while the decline in bulk carriers and container ships remains manageable [1]. - Year-on-year growth rates for January in various ship types are as follows: - Bulk carriers: -53% - Oil tankers: +10.8x - Container ships: -37.5% - LNG carriers: +17x - The aging of oil tankers and the accelerated turnover of LNG trade are driving the demand for new ships [1]. - **Ship Pricing Trends**: - The new ship price index stood at 184.29 points in January, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.69% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.19%, but overall prices are stabilizing [2]. - The second-hand ship price index increased by 12.53% year-on-year, with specific increases in second-hand prices for bulk carriers, oil tankers, and container ships at 11% each [2]. Additional Insights - The shipbuilding sector is currently characterized by low institutional allocation, historical low valuations, accelerating demand, and high growth in performance, making it a rare investment opportunity [2]. - The strong performance of ST Songfa and the release of shipbuilding industry results further reinforce the upward trend in industry prosperity, indicating a highly cost-effective position at present [2]. - The industry outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of upward beta trends [2]. - Core recommendations for investment include ST Songfa, China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense [2].

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding's 2025 earnings forecast aligns with expectations, projecting a year-on-year net profit growth of 66%-99% for the parent company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has optimized its order structure, with an increased proportion of high-value ship types delivered and a rise in prices of similar products compared to the previous year [1] - The construction cycle for main ship types continues to shorten, leading to improved production efficiency and enhanced operating performance year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as the ship replacement cycle, environmental policies, and tight production capacity [1] - The integration of shipbuilding assets within China Shipbuilding Group is expected to accelerate, enhancing internal collaboration, scale effects, and lean management, which will improve the competitive landscape of the shipbuilding industry [1] - New ship orders are trending towards larger, high-end, and dual-fuel designs, with the company demonstrating strong technical capabilities in constructing large vessels, positioning it well for high-quality, high-price orders in the future [1]

Core Insights - China's shipbuilding industry is projected to maintain its global leadership in three key metrics by 2025, marking 16 consecutive years at the top of the world rankings [1] - The integration of new technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, is significantly enhancing the efficiency and quality of shipbuilding processes [2][3] Group 1: Industry Performance Metrics - By 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume is expected to reach 53.69 million deadweight tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and accounting for 56.1% of the global market [1] - New orders are projected to total 107.82 million deadweight tons, capturing 69% of the global market [1] - The backlog of orders is anticipated to reach 27.442 million deadweight tons, a 31.5% increase year-on-year, representing 66.8% of the global market and setting a historical high [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The Chinese shipbuilding industry is undergoing rapid intelligent transformation, with significant improvements in production efficiency attributed to AI technologies [2][3] - The construction of the second domestically produced large cruise ship, "Aida Huacheng," has progressed over 91%, with the construction cycle shortened by nearly 8 months due to intelligent transformation [2] - AI-driven logistics have increased warehouse space utilization by 200% and improved efficiency in material handling by 50% [2] - AI has enabled a 25% increase in production capacity by optimizing production scheduling compared to traditional methods [3]

Core Viewpoint - After the merger of "two ships," China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) has significantly improved its profitability, projecting a net profit of 7 billion to 8.4 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of approximately 65.89% to 99.07% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 7 billion and 8.4 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 2.78 billion to 4.18 billion yuan year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of about 65.89% to 99.07% [2]. - The projected net profit excluding non-recurring items is estimated to be between 5.3 billion and 6.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 72.53% to 118.11% [2]. Operational Strategy - China Shipbuilding attributes its performance growth to a focus on core business, enhanced management efficiency, and an optimized order structure, with a higher proportion of high-value ship types being delivered [1][2]. - The company has a backlog of orders scheduled until 2029, indicating strong future revenue potential [4]. Industry Position - Following the merger with China Heavy Industry, China Shipbuilding has become the largest publicly listed shipbuilding company globally, showcasing advanced technology and significant projects such as the first domestically produced aircraft carrier and large LNG carriers [3]. Recent Developments - On December 8, 2025, China Shipbuilding announced a significant cooperation agreement involving 87 vessels worth approximately 50 billion yuan, marking the highest single contract amount for domestic shipbuilding companies [3][4]. - The company is actively supporting its subsidiaries' long-term development by providing financial assistance, which is expected to enhance overall operational efficiency and resource allocation within the group [5][6][7]. Financial Health - As of the third quarter of 2025, China Shipbuilding reported total assets of 406.02 billion yuan and total liabilities of 259.38 billion yuan, indicating a solid financial foundation [7]. - The stock price reached 33.54 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 252.41 billion yuan as of January 30, 2026 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.0 billion to 8.4 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 66% to 99% [2] - The main reasons for the profit increase include focusing on core business, optimizing order structure, and improving operational efficiency [3] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to replacement cycles, environmental policies, and capacity constraints, leading to improved profitability for shipyards [4] Financial Summary - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are approximately 7.84 billion, 17.09 billion, and 25.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 117%, 118%, and 48% respectively [6] - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with 2025 revenue projected at 156.21 billion yuan, a 99% increase from 2024 [8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.04 yuan in 2025, increasing to 3.37 yuan by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 66%-99%, with an estimated net profit of 7.0 billion to 8.4 billion yuan [2][3] - The main reasons for the profit increase include a focus on core business, improved order structure, and enhanced operational efficiency [3] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, leading to improved profitability for shipyards [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 156.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 99% increase from the previous year [8] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 7.84 billion, 17.09 billion, and 25.37 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 117%, 118%, and 48% [6][8] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 32, 15, and 10 [6]

央视网消息：工业和信息化部2月1日发布我国造船业最新数据。2025年，我国造船业三大指标继续领跑全球，连续16年保持世界第一。 在上海中船集团外高桥造船的2号船坞内，国产第二艘大型邮轮"爱达·花城号"工程总进度超91%。与首艘国产大型邮轮相比，建造周期缩短了近8个月。 最新数据显示，2025年我国造船完工量5369万载重吨，同比增长11.4%，占全球市场总量的56.1%；新接订单量10782万载重吨，占全球市场总量的 69%。截至12月末，手持订单量27442万载重吨，同比增长31.5%，占全球市场总量的66.8%，手持订单量再创历史新高。中国船舶工业行业协会副会长李彦 庆表示，2025年中国船舶工业取得了亮眼的成绩，三大指标全面超预期。未来市场还是相对温和发展的预期。所以，中国船舶工业很重要的是继续抓住市场 机遇，快接单、保交付。 不仅三大造船指标继续全球领跑，2025年，我国骨干船企国际竞争力不断增强，分别有6家企业位居世界造船完工量、新接订单量和手持订单量前10 强；18种主要船型中有16种船型新接订单量位居世界第一；多型世界级绿色智能船舶交付，高端转型取得重要突破，行业高质量发展取得了明显成绩。李彦 ...

Core Insights - China's shipbuilding industry continues to lead globally, maintaining its position as the world's largest for 16 consecutive years, with significant growth in key metrics for 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Key Metrics - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume is projected to reach 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global market [1] - New orders are expected to total 107.82 million deadweight tons, representing 69% of the global market [1] - The order backlog is anticipated to be 27.442 million deadweight tons, a 31.5% increase year-on-year, making up 66.8% of the global market [1] Group 2: Industry Competitiveness - Six major Chinese shipbuilding companies rank among the top ten globally in terms of completion volume, new orders, and order backlog [3] - China leads the world in new orders for 16 out of 18 major ship types, indicating strong international competitiveness [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The shipbuilding industry is undergoing a significant transformation towards smart manufacturing, with AI technologies being integrated into various stages of ship construction [6] - The construction period for the second domestically produced large cruise ship has been reduced by nearly 8 months compared to the first ship, showcasing efficiency improvements [6] - AI-driven logistics and production scheduling have increased warehouse utilization by 200% and improved efficiency by 50% [10] - AI has enhanced production capacity by 25% by optimizing daily and workstation-specific production plans [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].

本期内容提要：中国船舶集团有限公司七〇八所设计的全球首型风帆助推液化天然气双燃料油船交付； 大连造船交付一艘11.5万吨LR2型成品油船；武昌造船交付一艘18500吨成品油/化学品船；黄埔文冲 2026"年货节"圆满落下帷幕。 | 责 编：王 琦 | 一 审：周 芒 | 二 审：项 丽 | 三 审：甘丰录 | 来 源：中船集团新闻宣传中心/中国船舶报社 ...