Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," with market share expected to concentrate among companies that offer better service quality, stronger management capabilities, and healthier networks [1] Policy Aspects - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, effectively curbing vicious competition, with multiple provinces raising express delivery prices. From August to November, the single ticket revenue of A-share "Tongda" express companies has shown a continuous upward trend [2] - The "social insurance new regulations" are anticipated to enhance cost-price transmission paths, potentially leading to increased labor costs in the express delivery industry, which may be passed on to consumers through price hikes [2] Industry Aspects - With the growth rate of express delivery volume slowing, value competition is becoming crucial. The rational return of express prices and the reduction of small parcel trends are expected, with the industry volume growth rate forecasted to decrease [3] - The expected growth rates for express delivery volume are 13.7% year-on-year in 2025 and around 8% in 2026, emphasizing the importance of "cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" for companies to gain market share [3] Cost Reduction Potential - In the transit segment, the marginal cost reduction effects from scale are diminishing, with major franchise express companies focusing on optimizing routes and improving sorting efficiency. As of H1 2025, the single ticket transit cost for "Tongda" express companies has dropped to approximately 0.60 yuan [4] - In the last-mile delivery segment, which significantly impacts user experience and logistics efficiency, there remains substantial potential for cost optimization through automation and innovation. The cost burden for new technologies is primarily borne by franchisees, making the performance of these networks critical [4]

股东杭州灏月企业管理有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈 述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事局及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： 近日，圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到杭州灏月企业管理有限公司（以下简称"杭州灏 月"）通知，杭州灏月在2025年12月4日至2026年1月13日期间，通过大宗交易方式转让所持公司股份 25,068,500股。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临2026-007 二、权益变动触及1%刻度的基本情况 注：上述表格中的数据如有尾差，系数据四舍五入所致。 三、其他说明 1.公司于2025年10月17日披露了《圆通速递股份有限公司关于5%以上股东大宗交易减持股份计划的公 告》（公告编号：临2025-064），杭州灏月出于股东自身发展战略和资金筹划考虑，计划自减持计划公 告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，通过大宗交易方式合计转让公司股份不超过68,450,994股，拟转 让比例不 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Hong Kong/China Transportation and Infrastructure - **2026 Outlook**: More opportunities than risks, with a focus on supply-side opportunities in airlines, tanker shipping, and express delivery, while container shipping faces oversupply concerns [1][2][3] Airlines - **Pricing Trends**: Pricing inflation resumed since October 2025, supported by supply-side constraints and demand recovery from business travel, outbound travel growth, and inbound travel [2][11] - **Demand Drivers**: Business travel recovery positively correlated with capital expenditure, and inbound travel expected to grow, benefiting airlines [2][21] - **Airlines' Up-Cycle**: Chinese airlines are in a multi-year supply-driven up-cycle, with margin upside if pricing performance exceeds expectations [2][11] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight ratings on Air China (0753.HK), China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK), China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), and Spring Airlines (601021.SS) [9][10] Shipping - **Tanker Market**: Increasing demand for compliant tankers due to geopolitical tensions, with limited new supply additions due to low capital expenditure over the past decade [3] - **Container Shipping Risks**: Remains conservative on container shipping due to oversupply concerns [3] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight on COSCO Shipping (1138.HK) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS), underweight on COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) and Orient Overseas (0316.HK) [3] Airports - **Bargaining Power**: Airports are regaining bargaining power through duty-free contract renewals, breaking monopoly dynamics, and increasing shareholdings in duty-free operators [4][54] - **Duty-Free Spending**: Expected upside in duty-free spending with expanded product categories and higher offline sales [4][58] - **Key Stocks**: Equal-weight ratings on Shanghai International Airport (600009.SS), Hainan Meilan Airport (0357.HK), and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004.SS), underweight on Beijing Capital International Airport (0694.HK) [53] Express Delivery - **Market Consolidation**: ZTO (ZTO.N) and YTO (600233.SS) are consolidating market share, leading to cost-efficiency gains and margin expansion [5] - **International Expansion**: J&T (1519.HK) expected to consolidate market share in overseas markets through e-commerce partnerships [5] Key Risks and Considerations - **Airlines**: Risks include faster-than-expected aircraft delivery, deterioration in travel demand, unfavorable RMB depreciation, and surging oil prices [52][51] - **Airports**: Continued underperformance in duty-free business due to weak consumption and competition from other channels [54][55] Conclusion - The transportation sector in Hong Kong/China is poised for growth in 2026, driven by supply-side opportunities in airlines and shipping, while airports are regaining power in duty-free operations. However, risks remain, particularly in container shipping and overall economic conditions.

圆通速递1月13日大宗交易平台共发生7笔成交，合计成交量695.35万股，成交金额1.11亿元。成交价格 均为15.90元，相对今日收盘价折价5.24%。从参与大宗交易营业部来看，机构专用席位共出现在7笔成 交的买方或卖方营业部中，合计成交金额为1.11亿元。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生41笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为10.33亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，圆通速递今日收盘价为16.78元，下跌0.83%，日换手率为0.44%，成交额为 2.54亿元，全天主力资金净流出1420.62万元，近5日该股累计上涨0.78%，近5日资金合计净流出3911.88 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为1.97亿元，近5日减少1805.12万元，降幅为8.40%。（数据宝） 1月13日圆通速递大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 231.78 | 3685.30 | 15.90 | -5. ...

证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临 2026-007 圆通速递股份有限公司 关于 5%以上股东权益变动触及 1%刻度的提示性公告 股东杭州灏月企业管理有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事局及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： | 权益变动方向 | 比例增加□ | | 比例减少□√ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益变动前合计比例 | 17.59% | | | | 权益变动后合计比例 | 16.86% | | | | 本次变动是否违反已作出的承 诺、意向、计划 | 是□ | 否□√ | | | 是否触发强制要约收购义务 | 是□ | 否□√ | | 近日，圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到杭州灏月企业管理 有限公司（以下简称"杭州灏月"）通知，杭州灏月在 2025 年 12 月 4 日至 2026 年 1 月 13 日期间，通过大宗交易方式转让所持公司股份 25,068,500 股。现将有 关事项公告如下： 一、信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].

新年伊始，AI应用概念再掀热度，有行业人士直言，2026年将是AI走向落地应用的元年。事实上，人 工智能技术已在快递行业内广泛落地和应用，并构筑了企业经营发展的核心竞争力。 圆通亦持续赋能加盟网点提升管理效能，其推出的"网点经理智能助手"通过智能数据分析，助力加盟商 精准把控运营状况，科学优化管理策略，实现网点运营精准管控。 值得关注的是，圆通速递打造了覆盖全链路的智能化矩阵这一"最强大脑"，在揽派、中转、运输、客 服、管理等各个环节赋能，实现了服务效率与客户体验的同步提升，目前，深度集成的AI系统已成为 圆通快递高效运作的最大底气。 多场景AI应用的协同发力，使圆通在高并发业务场景下保持服务稳定性，实现了提质降本增效，亦为 消费市场顺畅运转提供了有力支撑。 在揽派前端，圆通"业务员AI助手"可实现批量外呼、分堆播报等功能，并主动推送相关指示，助力业务 员高效完成工作任务，同时，通过该系统智能路径规划，可减少配送延误与错派。此外，AI助手可助 力新员工快速掌握业务流程，降低培训成本。数据测算，该助手每日可帮助业务员节省30-60分钟工作 时间，直接提升终端服务效率。 中转环节，"数字孪生"系统已在圆通全国集运 ...

Key Points - Major asset restructuring plans are underway for several companies, including JiaoYun Co. and Dongzhu Ecology, with significant risks of termination noted for Dongzhu Ecology's restructuring efforts [11][12] - ST KeliDa is set to resume trading on January 12, 2026, following a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - NineLink Technology has terminated its major asset restructuring plans due to disagreements on core transaction terms [6] - Companies like Huazhou Laojiao and others have announced substantial profit distributions and performance forecasts, indicating positive growth trends [8][9][10] Focus Area 1: Asset Restructuring - JiaoYun Co. is planning a major asset swap involving its automotive sales and service segments with assets from its controlling shareholder [11] - Dongzhu Ecology is attempting to acquire control of Kai Rui Xing Tong Information Technology but faces significant termination risks due to valuation disagreements [12] - NineLink Technology has decided to halt its plans to acquire a 51% stake in Chengdu Neng Tong Technology after failing to reach consensus on key transaction details [6] Focus Area 2: Trading Resumption and Risk Warnings - ST KeliDa will resume trading on January 12, 2026, after a proposed change in its actual controller [5] - China First Heavy Industries and Oriental Pearl have issued risk warning announcements regarding their stock trading, highlighting the volatility and lack of revenue from certain projects [3][4] Focus Area 3: Performance Forecasts - Huazhou Laojiao expects a net profit of between 235 million to 271 million yuan for 2025, a significant recovery from a loss in the previous year [8] - China Shipbuilding Defense anticipates a net profit increase of 149.61% to 196.88% for 2025, driven by improved production efficiency and revenue from joint ventures [9] - Daotong Technology projects a net profit of 900 million to 930 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 40.42% to 45.10% [10]

Group 1 - YTO Express announced an investment of 305 million yuan to acquire 100% equity of Wanjia Gaoke, a wholly-owned subsidiary of its controlling shareholder, Shanghai YTO Jiaolong Investment Development (Group) Co., Ltd. [3][12] - The acquisition aims to enhance the infrastructure layout in the Beijing area and optimize asset allocation in North China [5][14]. - The transaction allows the controlling shareholders, Yu Huaiqiao and Zhang Xiaojuan, to cash out 300 million yuan [5][14]. Group 2 - Alibaba's investment company, Hangzhou Haoyue, reduced its stake in YTO Express from 9.06% to 7.9%, resulting in a cash-out of over 600 million yuan [6][8]. - Following the transaction, the total shareholding of Alibaba's entities in YTO Express decreased from 18.75% to 17.59% [6][15]. - In less than a year, Alibaba has cashed out over 1.4 billion yuan from YTO Express while remaining a significant shareholder [17]. Group 3 - As of the last trading day, YTO Express's stock price was 16.55 yuan, with a market capitalization of 56.6 billion yuan [8][16]. - In a previous transaction, Hangzhou Haoyue transferred 68,935,068 shares, accounting for 2% of the total share capital, through block trading [8][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]