1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly data of the large refining and chemical industry, showing that the cost - side support has weakened and filament prices have declined. It also analyzes the price, profit, inventory, and other indicators of different sectors such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, and tracks the performance and profit forecasts of relevant listed companies [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Price and Market Value of Listed Companies**: The report tracks the stock price changes of six major private refining and chemical companies in the past week, month, three - month, one - year, and from the beginning of 2025 to the present. For example, the oil and petrochemical index rose 1.6% in the past week, while Rongcheng Petrochemical rose 5.1%. It also provides the stock price, total market value, and profit forecasts of these companies from 2024A to 2027E [7]. - **Oil Price and Refining Spread**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week was $60.1 per barrel, a decrease of $1.9 ( - 3.1%) compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 18.4% compared to the same period last year. The average price of WTI crude oil was $56.3 per barrel, a decrease of $2.0 ( - 3.4%) compared to the previous week, and a decrease of 20.1% compared to the same period last year. The spread of domestic refining projects this week was 2,673.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 104.3 yuan/ton (4.1%) compared to the previous week, and an increase of 6.7% compared to the same period last year. The spread of foreign refining projects was 1,305.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.6 yuan/ton ( - 1.8%) compared to the previous week, and an increase of 26.5% compared to the same period last year [7]. - **Polyester Sector**: The average prices of POY, FDY, and DTY in the industry this week were 6,292.9 yuan/ton, 6,535.7 yuan/ton, and 7,685.7 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 110.7 yuan/ton, 125.0 yuan/ton, and 60.7 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were - 58.4 yuan/ton, - 162.7 yuan/ton, and 3.2 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 75.4 yuan/ton, 84.9 yuan/ton, and 42.2 yuan/ton. The inventory days were 19.0 days, 24.3 days, and 24.9 days respectively, with week - on - week increases of 2.3 days, 2.1 days, and 1.0 days. The filament operating rate was 89.1%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous week [2][8]. - **Refining Sector**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in China and the United States decreased this week [2]. - **Chemical Sector**: The average price of PX this week was $838.6 per ton, an increase of $1.7 compared to the previous week, and the spread compared to crude oil was $400.0 per ton, an increase of $15.7 compared to the previous week. The PX operating rate was 89.2%, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may show the trends of the big refining index and project spreads, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided text, only the titles of relevant charts are given [10][11]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It mainly analyzes the price, profit, inventory, operating rate, and sales - to - production ratio of various products in the polyester sector, including PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, polyester bottle chips, etc. For example, it studies the relationship between the price of PX and crude oil, the profit of PTA, and the inventory of filament products [22][23]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It is divided into domestic, US, European, and Singaporean refined oil markets, analyzing the price and spread of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in these regions compared to crude oil [80][92]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It analyzes the price and spread of various chemical products such as EVA photovoltaic materials, pure benzene, styrene, etc., compared to crude oil [129][130].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry, but it provides insights into price trends and market conditions that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The report highlights that the downstream stocking demand for winter is nearing its end, with polyester filament experiencing slight inventory accumulation [1]. - Domestic key refining project price spread is reported at 2540.74 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 7.17 CNY/ton (0.28%), while the international price spread is at 1303.62 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 27.50 CNY/ton (-2.07%) [2][3]. - Brent crude oil's average price for the week ending December 19, 2025, is noted at 60.08 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.10% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, including negotiations between Ukraine and the U.S. and sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which have led to fluctuations in international oil prices [2]. - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in price spreads. The average prices for diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene are reported as 6625.29 CNY/ton, 7641.71 CNY/ton, and 5800.48 CNY/ton, respectively [15]. - The report notes that the chemical sector has seen a general decline in chemical prices, with some products experiencing smaller declines relative to cost, leading to improved price spreads [2]. Chemical Sector Summary - In the polyester sector, the report indicates that the price of PX and MEG has slightly decreased, while PTA prices remain stable. The overall price trend in the polyester industry is downward due to weak demand and increased production capacity [2]. - The report mentions that the EVA market is seeing price declines as production resumes from maintenance, with the average price reported at 9778.57 CNY/ton [50]. - The report also highlights that the price of pure benzene remains stable, while styrene prices have decreased due to weak cost support, with the average price reported at 6614.29 CNY/ton [50].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical sector, with the overall performance of the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.57% this week [9]. Core Insights - Oil prices have remained volatile, influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the fluctuating situation in Venezuela, which has led to a widening discount on Venezuelan oil [14]. - The average operating rate of domestic refineries is stable at 75.11%, while the average refining profit for major refineries is reported at 613.88 CNY/ton, showing a decrease from the previous period [3]. - The polyester sector is experiencing weak demand as the year-end approaches, with expectations of reduced operating rates for weaving machines [3]. - The ethylene market remains stable, with domestic prices holding steady, while propylene prices have seen a slight decline due to ample supply [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing mixed performance, such as the polyester index increasing by 4.65% [9][10]. Oil and Gas Sector - As of December 18, WTI crude oil is priced at 56.15 USD, down by 1.45 USD, while Brent crude is at 61.43 USD, down by 0.95 USD. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.274 million barrels [14]. - The U.S. active oil rig count increased by 1 to 414 rigs, indicating a slight uptick in exploration activity [14]. Refining Sector - The average refining profit for major refineries is reported at 613.88 CNY/ton, a decrease of 31.59 CNY/ton from the previous period [3]. - The average operating rate for major refineries is stable at 75.11% [3]. Polyester Sector - The average profit for polyester products shows a decline, with POY150D at 38.35 CNY/ton, down by 71.09 CNY/ton, and FDY150D at -166.66 CNY/ton, down by 81.13 CNY/ton [3]. - PTA processing fees have slightly decreased to 156.51 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability within the sector [3]. Olefins Sector - Ethylene prices remain stable at 6172 CNY/ton, while propylene prices in Shandong have decreased to 5955 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.22% decline [3].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) rising by 1.12% as of the latest report [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Huafeng Chemical, which surged over 6%, and Luxi Chemical, which increased by over 4% [1] - Other notable gainers include Rongsheng Petrochemical, Yangnong Chemical, and Boyuan Chemical, each rising by more than 3% [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate prices have significantly increased, with futures reaching nearly 110,000 yuan/ton, marking an 8.84% rise on December 17 [2] - The price of lithium carbonate has risen by 84.1% from its low point earlier in the year [2] - Dongguan Securities expresses optimism about the lithium battery industry, predicting a 17% growth in global new energy vehicle sales by 2026 and a 20% increase in demand for power batteries [3] Group 3 - The chemical sector is currently viewed as having a favorable valuation, with the chemical ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, which is relatively low historically [3] - Guohai Securities anticipates that the dividend capacity of Chinese chemical companies will improve, indicating a high potential dividend yield [3] - Huazhong Securities notes a clear differentiation in chemical product prices, with expectations for gradual recovery in pricing across the sector [3] Group 4 - The chemical ETF (516020) provides an efficient way to invest in the chemical sector, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating on large-cap leading stocks [4] - Nearly 50% of the ETF's holdings are in major companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Co., allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [4] - Investors can also access the chemical ETF through linked funds for broader exposure to the sector [4]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Brand 500 list was announced, with 50 Chinese brands included, maintaining the country's position as the third globally [1] - Five brands from Suzhou made the list: Hengli (347th), Shenghong (369th), Hengtong (386th), Bosideng (449th), and Tongding (496th), with Tongding being a first-time entrant [1] - The evaluation criteria for the World Brand 500 include market share, brand loyalty, and global leadership, assessing over 8,000 brands [1] Group 1: Suzhou Brands - Hengli has been on the list for eight consecutive years, improving its position by 16 spots from the previous year [1] - Shenghong has also been recognized for five consecutive years, moving up 11 places this year [2] - Hengtong has established 12 overseas industrial bases and over 40 technical service companies, creating a network covering more than 150 countries [2] Group 2: Brand Strategies - Shenghong is integrating artificial intelligence into its core strategy for industrial upgrade and brand building, focusing on smart industry and green branding [2] - Tongding, a leader in information communication and energy infrastructure, is enhancing its global strategy, exporting products to various countries and increasing brand visibility along the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - Hengtong has undertaken over 150 information and energy interconnection projects globally, enhancing the reputation of Chinese manufacturing [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil demand forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global crude oil surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day for the current year [4][17]. - The EIA has kept its 2025-2026 crude oil price forecasts unchanged at $69 and $55 per barrel, respectively, while raising its natural gas price forecasts for the same years [5][11]. - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with expectations of improved market conditions [19]. Summary by Sections Demand Forecasts - IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026, driven by positive macroeconomic and trade outlooks [11][12]. - OPEC forecasts a demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][58]. - EIA anticipates a rise in global oil and other liquid fuel consumption by 1.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.23 million barrels per day in 2026 [12][17]. Supply Forecasts - EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for the current year by 200,000 barrels per day, while IEA has lowered its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [14][17]. - EIA projects a global oil production increase of 3.01 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.25 million barrels per day in 2026 [15][17]. - OPEC anticipates a growth in non-OPEC oil supply of 1 million barrels per day in 2025, primarily from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [58]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with the latest closing price at $61.12 per barrel, reflecting a 4.13% week-on-week decline [27]. - The report notes a slight increase in U.S. oil rig counts, with 548 rigs reported as of December 12, 2025 [40]. Downstream Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining margins, with the Singapore refining margin rising to $19.82 per barrel [4]. - Polyester sector profitability is mixed, with PTA prices declining while polyester filament prices are on the rise [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [19][22]. - It also suggests focusing on high-dividend yield companies like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The political bureau meeting emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies and the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, which is expected to provide a clearer reversal signal for the chemical industry at the bottom of the cycle [2][3] - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.2, indicating significant upside potential [2][18] - The report highlights the importance of supply-side optimization and the potential for price recovery in industries with high concentration and low profitability [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - The report discusses the impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices, with Brent oil closing at $61.28 per barrel, down $2.47 (-3.9%) from the previous week [17] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown unexpected recovery, which has increased attention on the chemical sector [18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The chemical sector index decreased by 2.2% in the week, ranking 26th among 31 industry sectors [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical sector index has increased by 25.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.0% [24][27] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 97 stocks rose while 325 fell during the week [32] - The top gainers included companies like Bluestar Technology (+18.1%) and Qiaoyuan Co. (+15.2%) [34] 4. Key Investment Themes - **Theme One**: Focus on upstream resource assets with strong profit certainty, such as phosphorus and sulfur [19] - **Theme Two**: Emphasis on supply-side optimization and price elasticity in sectors like organic silicon and PTA [20] - **Theme Three**: Attention to low-valued leading companies in the sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical [22] - **Theme Four**: Investment in new productive forces aligned with green energy and semiconductor materials [23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and weak cost support, leading to a downward trend in chemical product price spreads [2] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2527.61 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 22.27 CNY/ton (+0.89%), while the international key refining project price spread is 1330.98 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.23 CNY/ton (-0.47%) [3] - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 62.00 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.73% [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Positive signals in China-US trade relations boosted market risk appetite, while concerns over Russian supply supported international oil prices [2] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices on December 12, 2025, were 61.12 USD/barrel and 57.44 USD/barrel, respectively, down by 2.63 USD/barrel and 2.64 USD/barrel from December 5, 2025 [2] - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel and aviation kerosene prices in Southeast Asia experiencing minor increases, while other regions saw price declines [2] Chemical Sector - The industry is entering a demand off-season, with weak cost support leading to a decline in chemical product prices and spreads [2] - Polyolefins prices and spreads have decreased due to a continuous decline in terminal operating levels [2] - EVA prices have dropped due to supply pressure from new installations and weak demand, with the average price at 10028.57 CNY/ton [2] - Benzene prices remained stable, with a slight increase in spreads, while styrene prices increased due to tight supply [2] Major Refining Companies - Stock price changes for six major private refining companies as of December 12, 2025, include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-4.69%), Hengli Petrochemical (-5.22%), Dongfang Shenghong (-0.96%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-1.09%), Tongkun Co. (-6.62%), and Xin Fengming (-9.99%) [2]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

恒力石化股份有限公司 证券代码：600346 证券简称：恒力石化 公告编号：2025-078 恒力石化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）近日接到控股股东恒力集团有 限公司（以下简称"恒力集团"）通知，获悉其将所持有的公司部分股份办理了 解除质押手续。 二、本次股份解除质押后，恒力集团及其一致行动人累计质押股份情况如下： | 持股数量（股） | 5,310,675,080 | | --- | --- | | 持股比例 | 75.45% | 股东名称 恒力集团 本次解质股份（股） 60,000,000 本次解质股份占该股东所持股份比例 2.86% 本次解质股份占公司总股本比例 0.85% 质押登记解除日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 股东持股数量（股） 2,100,612,342 股东持股比例 29.84% 剩余被质押股份数量（股） 1,108,000,000 剩余被质押股份数量占其所持股份比例 52.75% 剩余被质押股份数量占公司总股本比例 15.74% 一、本次股份解除质押的基本情况如下： 恒力石化股份有限公司 恒力石化股份有限公司 关于控股股东解除部分股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 ...