证券研究报告·公司点评报告·炼化及贸易 恒力石化（600346） 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评：盈利能力 稳健，打造"成长+回报"型企业 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 234,866 | 236,401 | 212,528 | 215,418 | 218,453 | | 同比（%） | 5.62 | 0.65 | (10.10) | 1.36 | 1.41 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,905 | 7,044 | 8,024 | 9,303 | 10,657 | | 同比（%） | 197.83 | 2.01 | 13.92 | 15.94 | 14.56 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.32 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.83 | 15.52 | 13.62 | 11.75 | 10.26 | ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·炼化及贸易 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评：盈利能力 稳健，打造"成长+回报"型企业 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 234,866 | 236,401 | 212,528 | 215,418 | 218,453 | | 同比（%） | 5.62 | 0.65 | (10.10) | 1.36 | 1.41 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 6,905 | 7,044 | 8,024 | 9,303 | 10,657 | | 同比（%） | 197.83 | 2.01 | 13.92 | 15.94 | 14.56 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.32 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.83 | 15.52 | 13.62 | 11.75 | 10.26 | [Table_Tag] ...

石油石化/炼化及贸易 恒力石化（600346.SH） 炼化景气度回暖，2025Q1 扣非归母净利润环比大增 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.23/12.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 10.49 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 恒力石化 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《公司具备盈利韧性，未来关注业绩 弹性和高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.21 《2024H1 业绩同比高增，新材料产能 逐 步 投 放 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.26 目前公司已经结束本轮资本开支高峰期，后续经营重心将更加突出精细成本管 控、降低负债和强化分红。进入 202 ...

石油石化/炼化及贸易 恒力石化（600346.SH） 炼化景气度回暖，2025Q1 扣非归母净利润环比大增 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.57 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 17.23/12.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,095.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 70.39 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 10.49 | 股价走势图 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 恒力石化 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《公司具备盈利韧性，未来关注业绩 弹性和高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.4.21 《2024H1 业绩同比高增，新材料产能 逐 步 投 放 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.26 《Q1 业绩同环比高增，看好炼化龙头 盈利弹性与远期成长性—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.4.24 | ...

石油石化 上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 24 日 恒力石化 (600346) ——业绩环比提升，炼油景气有所修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 15.57 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.23/12.13 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.53 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 109,599 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,296.36/9,935.80 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.28 | | 资产负债率% | 76.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 7,039/7,039 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01- ...

原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 15.58 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 4.3 0.2 6.1 0.1 相对上证综指 3.1 2.1 3.4 (8.3) 发行股数 (百万) 7,039.10 流通股 (百万) 7,039.10 (16%) (10%) (4%) 3% 9% 15% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 恒力石化 上证综指 | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 109,669.17 | | --- | --- | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 200.11 | | 主要股东 | | | 恒力集团有限公司 | 29.84% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 22 日收市价为标准 石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 24 日 600346.SH 买入 相关研究报告 《恒力石化》20240826 《恒力石化》20240415 《恒力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [9][11]. Core Views - The company's earnings are expected to show resilience, with a projected EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025, 1.57 yuan for 2026, and 1.83 yuan for 2027, reflecting a PE ratio of 14.15, 9.90, and 8.52 respectively based on the closing price as of April 22, 2025 [7][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of refining industry prosperity due to its integrated cost advantages and strong market position as a leading private refining enterprise [7][9]. - The report highlights the company's robust cash flow and reduced capital expenditures, which support its long-term dividend-paying capability [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 57.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, but a sequential improvement in net profit by 5.78% [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The report notes a decline in energy costs, with Brent crude oil averaging $80 per barrel in 2024, down 2.8% year-on-year, which enhances the company's cost advantages [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of oil and coal, with a continued favorable supply-demand balance in the coal market [9]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched several new polyester materials, with sales reaching 5.64 million tons in 2024, a 38% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to revenue [9]. - Ongoing projects in functional film production and lithium battery separators are expected to further enhance the company's market position and profitability [9]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 44.97% in 2024, with a total dividend amounting to 3.168 billion yuan, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [7][9]. Core Insights - The company's earnings are expected to show resilience, with a projected EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025, 1.57 yuan for 2026, and 1.83 yuan for 2027, reflecting a PE ratio of 14.15, 9.90, and 8.52 respectively [7][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of refining industry prosperity due to its integrated cost advantages and strong market position as a leading private refining enterprise [7][9]. - The report highlights the company's ability to enhance dividends, reinforcing its status as a leading player in the industry [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 57.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, but a sequential improvement in net profit by 5.78% [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The report notes a decline in energy costs, which enhances the company's integrated cost advantages in the "oil-coal-chemical" sector [9]. - The average Brent crude oil price in 2024 was $80 per barrel, down 2.8% year-on-year, while coal prices continued to decline due to a relaxed supply-demand balance [9]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched several new polyester material projects, with sales volume reaching 5.64 million tons in 2024, a 38% increase year-on-year [9]. - The report anticipates that the company will become a leading global producer of functional membrane materials as new production lines are gradually put into operation [9]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company reported a robust operating cash flow of 22.73 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong operational resilience [9]. - With a dividend payout ratio of 44.97% in 2024, the company is expected to continue its trend of increasing dividends as capital expenditures decrease [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance, aiming to build a "growth + return" type of listed enterprise [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 236.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.044 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to implement a high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share for 2024, which is approximately 31.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 44.97% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 58.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, but a net profit of 1.939 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 61% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 57 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year [6] Production Capacity and Growth - The company has successfully launched several new production capacities, including a 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project, and a 400,000 tons/year high-performance industrial yarn project [7] - The company is expected to gradually launch additional projects, enhancing its position in the high-value-added new materials industry [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.228 billion yuan, 10.538 billion yuan, and 11.606 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.31 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.65 yuan [9][10] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2026 and adds a new forecast for 2027, indicating sustained growth potential [9]

Summary of Hengli Petrochemical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengli Petrochemical - **Industry**: Petrochemical and Refining Key Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported revenue of 57 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.05 billion CNY, with operating cash flow of 7.75 billion CNY, indicating a recovery trend [1][2] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 236.3 billion CNY and a net profit of 7.044 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - The construction projects in progress decreased from 56.6 billion CNY in Q1 2024 to 38 billion CNY, signaling the nearing end of capital expenditures [2][3] - The debt-to-asset ratio improved from 78% to 76.5%, reflecting enhanced financial stability [1][2] Industry Trends - The petrochemical industry began a gradual recovery in 2023, with coal prices dropping from 1,000 CNY/ton to 600 CNY/ton, and oil prices returning to rational levels [1][4] - Domestic demand has shown seasonal fluctuations, but government policies have been implemented to stimulate demand recovery [1][4] - In Q4 2025, the company recorded an impairment loss of over 1.1 billion CNY due to falling oil prices, but Q1 2025 showed improved operational conditions [1][4] Competitive Advantages - Hengli Petrochemical benefits from a comprehensive cost advantage, product structure advantage, and operational mechanism advantage [5] - The integration of oil and coal reduces costs significantly; a 100 CNY decrease in coal price can save 1.6 to 1.7 billion CNY in costs [5] - The company has a refining capacity of 20 million tons and is focusing on high-value-added products through resource investment and product optimization [6] Future Outlook - The peak of capital expenditures is expected to end in 2025, with ongoing projects projected to decrease to around 10 billion CNY [3][7] - The company plans to maintain stable dividends while reducing high-cost short-term financing [3][7] - The impact of tariffs on imported raw materials is expected to support the profitability of the company, despite the ongoing trade tensions [8][11] Market Conditions - The market for polyester filament and industrial yarn has shown signs of pressure due to decreased operating rates and increased caution among end customers [12][13] - The company has approximately 2 million tons of polyester filament capacity, with stable profitability from its Suzhou project [12] - The overall performance of the industrial yarn segment is positive, contributing to the company's profitability [13] Strategic Adjustments - Hengli Petrochemical is actively adjusting its product structure in response to market challenges, focusing on optimizing production based on profitability [14] - The company is closely monitoring the effects of the tariff war and is prepared to adapt its product lines accordingly [14] Tax and Financial Management - The total tax and additional charges for 2024 were approximately 6.4 billion CNY, a reduction of about 3 billion CNY from the previous year [17] - Hengli Petrochemical benefits from tax rebates under specific policies, with approximately 6 billion CNY owed to the company by Dalian City [18] Conclusion - Hengli Petrochemical is positioned to navigate the complexities of the current market environment, leveraging its competitive advantages and strategic adjustments to enhance profitability and shareholder returns [1][5][6][7]