Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for strategic metals investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [3][5][11]. Market Review: Strategic Metals Lead Nonferrous - From the beginning of the year until December 18, 2025, the nonferrous metals sector has risen by 78.53%, ranking second among all industries. Strategic metals have shown significant gains, with tungsten up 136.7%, cobalt up 69.1%, and rare earth permanent magnets up 56.7% [7]. Cobalt: Supply Tightening from Congo (DRC) - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented an export quota system for cobalt, leading to a projected supply-demand imbalance of -7.5/-3.3/-3.3 million tons for 2025-2027. The DRC's export ban and subsequent quota system are expected to keep cobalt prices elevated [3][14][16]. Rare Earths: Supply Expectations Tightening - The rare earth sector is experiencing tightening supply due to strategic export controls and a lack of public quota announcements. The price of light rare earths has seen fluctuations, with a peak price of 64.30 million yuan/ton for praseodymium and neodymium oxides in August 2025, followed by a decline [22][26][46]. Tungsten: Continued Supply-Demand Gap - The tungsten market is facing a supply squeeze due to mining restrictions and declining ore grades. Demand remains stable, supported by applications in military and photovoltaic sectors, suggesting that tungsten prices are likely to rise [3][5]. Tin: Supply Tightness and AI Demand Growth - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar is slow, with significant delays expected. However, the rapid development of AI is emerging as a new growth driver for tin demand [3][5]. Antimony: Export Recovery Expected - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is anticipated to boost China's antimony exports, which currently account for 36% of its production. The lifting of these restrictions is expected to enhance export volumes significantly [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the tightening supply of strategic metals, including Huayou Cobalt, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Specific recommendations include companies with significant cobalt production quotas in the DRC and those involved in rare earth processing [5][3].

证券代码：600366 证券简称：宁波韵升 编号：2025—075 | 序 | | | 金额 | | 产品起 | 产品到期 | | 赎回情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 号 | 受托机构 | 产品名称 | （万元） | 产品类型 | 息日 | 日 | 实际赎回日 | 赎回金额 （万元） | 实际收益 （万元） | | 1 | 方正证券 股份有限 | 方正证券 收益凭证 | 2,000.00 | 保本浮动收 | 2025/7/ | 2025/12/2 | 2025/12/24 | 2,000.00 | 17.52 | | | 公司 | 金添利 FD25078号 | | 益凭证 | 24 | 4 | | | | | 2 | 中国银行 鄞州分行 | 大额可转 让存单 | 10,000.00 | 保本固定收 益型 | 2025/1/ 17 | 2026/8/4 （可随时 | 2025/12/23 | 10,000.00 | 278.78 | | | | | | | | 转让） | | | | | 3 | 中国银 ...

Group 1 - The energy metal sector is experiencing a surge in demand driven by a dual catalyst of supply restructuring and explosive demand, particularly in the context of energy storage [1][2] - Major resource countries are actively managing supply through policies such as quotas and licenses, aiming to gain control over resource pricing [1][2] - The demand for carbonated lithium in the energy storage sector is projected to reach approximately 345,000 tons by 2025 and is expected to exceed 500,000 tons by 2026, marking a tenfold increase from 2021 [2] Group 2 - In the lithium sector, the industry is undergoing a deep clearing with a slowdown in capital expenditure, indicating clear bottom signals. The sustained demand for energy storage is expected to drive a tight balance in global carbonated lithium supply and demand by 2026, making lithium prices more likely to rise [2][3] - Cobalt prices are entering an upward channel due to supply management, while nickel prices, despite being suppressed by high inventory, have dropped to deep cost curve levels, with Indonesia's supply management laying the groundwork for future price recovery [2][3] - The domestic production index control for rare earth materials is tightening supply, while resilient demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power supports a strong price environment [2][3] Group 3 - Recommended companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, Yongxing Materials, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [3][4] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is highlighted as a potential beneficiary due to strengthened supply-side policies and the industry being at a long-term bottom [3][4] - In the rare earth magnetic materials sector, companies such as Ningbo Yunsheng and Jieli Permanent Magnet are suggested as beneficiaries due to supply tightening and stable high-end demand [3][4]

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Rare Earth NATO" alliance aims to reduce reliance on China for rare earth materials, with representatives from eight countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, signing the agreement [1] - China's strategic move to issue general export licenses to companies like Jinko Solar and Ningbo Yunsheng is seen as a tactical response to the geopolitical landscape, highlighting the potential risks for the U.S. defense industry if it loses access to Chinese magnetic materials [3] - The U.S. Department of Defense is facing significant costs in its efforts to develop a domestic rare earth supply chain, with a guaranteed purchase price of $110 per ton, which is 2.3 times the international market price [3] - Investment banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are betting on government subsidies to support domestic mining operations, indicating a lack of market competitiveness for U.S. mining companies reliant on government backing [3] - Lynas's operations in Malaysia are significantly more expensive than Chinese counterparts, with capital expenditures 3 to 5 times higher and an additional 50% premium due to environmental compliance costs, suggesting that the push for a de-China supply chain may lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The U.S. is incurring five times the cost to rebuild a mature industry that China has already mastered, raising concerns about the long-term viability of U.S. efforts to establish a competitive rare earth supply chain [6] - The potential establishment of an exclusive certification system by the U.S. and Europe could undermine China's cost advantages in the rare earth sector, posing risks to its market share and leading to overcapacity issues [6] - The geopolitical strategy of the U.S. aims to drive global inflation to 600% to sever supply chains, raising questions about the effectiveness of permits held by companies as either a weapon against competitors or a safeguard for their own interests [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Group 1 - The superconducting concept sector rose by 3.37%, ranking second among concept sectors, with 25 stocks increasing in value, including West Material and Antai Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the superconducting sector included West Superconductor, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, and Dongfang Tantalum, which rose by 7.18%, 7.06%, and 6.64% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 1.982 billion yuan from main funds, with 19 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Antai Technology, with a net inflow of 859 million yuan, followed by Zhongtian Technology, Wolong Nuclear Materials, and West Superconductor with net inflows of 480 million yuan, 449 million yuan, and 226 million yuan respectively [2] - In terms of net inflow ratios, Antai Technology, Jiugang Hongxing, and Wolong Nuclear Materials led with ratios of 26.20%, 18.80%, and 14.28% respectively [3] - The trading volume for Antai Technology was 85.87 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 15.69%, while West Superconductor had a trading volume of 22.56 million yuan and a turnover rate of 6.89% [3][4]

Market Performance - The metal new materials sector increased by 0.82% on December 8, with Tianli Composite leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] Stock Performance - Tianli Composite (code: 920576) closed at 32.70, up 16.74% with a trading volume of 93,300 shares and a transaction value of 310 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Placo New Materials (code: 300811) at 75.30, up 4.12% [1] - Ningbo Yunsheng (code: 600366) at 14.54, up 3.56% [1] - Alloy Investment (code: 000633) at 9.05, up 3.43% [1] Capital Flow - The metal new materials sector experienced a net outflow of 423 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 211 million yuan [2] - The sector's capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Tianli Composite had a net inflow of 70.35 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 22.68% of its trading volume [3] - Other stocks with significant capital flow include: - Placo New Materials with a net inflow of 66.51 million yuan from institutions [3] - Xin Ke Materials (code: 600255) with a net inflow of 31.31 million yuan from institutions [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a surge in rare earth stocks, with Jinli Permanent Magnet rising over 14%, Ningbo Yunsheng hitting the upper limit, and Zhongke Sanhuan reaching a temporary trading halt [1] - Companies such as Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhongke Sanhuan, and Ningbo Yunsheng have obtained general export licenses, which will simplify the export process for rare earth permanent magnet enterprises and accelerate delivery speed [1] Group 2 - Jinli Permanent Magnet's stock increased by 10.79%, with a total market value of 51.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 111.17% [2] - Ningbo Yunsheng's stock rose by 10.03%, with a market value of 154 billion and a year-to-date increase of 91.54% [2] - Zhongke Sanhuan's stock increased by 8.27%, with a market value of 16.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 31.58% [2]

Core Viewpoint - China has issued its first batch of general export licenses for rare earth materials, leading to a significant rise in the stock prices of key rare earth permanent magnet companies [1][3]. Group 1: Export License Impact - The issuance of general export licenses has resulted in a surge in stock prices for companies like Ningbo Yunsheng, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and Zhongke Sanhuan, with Ningbo Yunsheng hitting the daily limit [1]. - Several leading domestic rare earth permanent magnet companies have successfully obtained these export licenses, which are crucial for their operations [1][3]. - The new policy allows companies to apply for export licenses as long as their products meet relevant standards and are within the scope of policy control, enhancing export efficiency [7]. Group 2: Policy Background - The issuance of the export licenses is closely linked to the dynamic adjustments in China's rare earth export policies throughout the year [3][4]. - In April, China announced export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earth-related items, requiring exporters to apply for licenses [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce accelerated the approval process for rare earth exports in June to alleviate global supply chain pressures [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - As of October, China's rare earth magnet exports totaled 45,290 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, but showing a 15.8% increase compared to the same month in the previous year [9]. - Exports to the United States saw a significant month-on-month increase of 56.1% in October, reaching 656 tons, the highest since January [10].

Economic and Market Updates - The U.S. stock market saw slight gains with the Dow Jones up by 0.22%, Nasdaq up by 0.31%, and S&P 500 up by 0.19% [5] - International oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.79% to $60.14 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 0.82% to $63.78 per barrel [6] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.29%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as Baidu up over 5% and Global Data up over 4% [5] Corporate Developments - Netflix announced a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's film studio and streaming business for $827 billion, with a share value of $27.75 per share, expected to close in Q3 2026 [16][17] - Three rare earth permanent magnet companies, including Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhongke Sanhuan, and Ningbo Yunsheng, have obtained general export licenses, which will streamline their export processes [16] - Tencent launched its latest language model, Tencent HY2.0, which features significant improvements in pre-training data and reinforcement learning strategies [21] Regulatory and Policy Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for the "Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Listed Companies," marking the introduction of a dedicated regulatory framework for listed companies [8][9] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the promotion of durable goods consumption and the integration of AI in consumer sectors, aiming to enhance consumer experience and stimulate economic growth [7] Industry Trends - The banking sector is witnessing a trend of increasing deposit rates, with Hangzhou Bank raising its three-year fixed deposit rate to 1.9% for new funds [10] - The electric vehicle market is responding to new regulations, with Yadea clarifying misconceptions about its new national standard models, emphasizing compliance and market adaptation [19][20] - SpaceX is reportedly negotiating an internal share sale that could value the company at $800 billion, with plans for an IPO in the second half of next year [26]