伊利股份（600887.SH）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 收入降幅收窄，盈利环比改善 2024 年 11 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年前三季度实现营业收入 887.3 亿 元，同比-8.61%，归母净利润 108.7 亿元，同比+15.87%，扣非归母净利 85.1 亿元，同比-4.55%。单 Q3 实现营收 290.4 亿元，同比-6.66%，归母净利 33.4 亿元，同比+8.53%，扣非归母净利 31.8 亿元，同比+13.42%。 ➢ 积极新品创新，液奶降幅收窄。分产品看，24Q3 液奶降幅环比明显收窄、 奶粉保持较好增长、冷饮继续承压。2024Q3 液奶收入 206.4 亿元、同比-10.3%， 降幅环比 Q2 收窄，主要系 Q2 控货去库而 Q3 去库完成、渠道库存恢复良性水 平；奶粉及奶制品 68.2 亿元、同比+6.6%，奶粉保持份额提升；冷饮 10.2 亿元、 同比-16.7%，主要系渠道库存压力较大；其他 1.9 亿元、同比+22.7%。分区域 看：24Q3 华北/华南/华中/华东/其他收入同比-6.76 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability for Q3 2024, with a net profit of 10.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, while total revenue for the first three quarters was 88.733 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The liquid milk segment saw a narrowing decline in revenue, while the milk powder segment experienced stable growth, attributed to a recovery in birth rates and improved market conditions following the exit of smaller brands [2] - The gross profit margin improved by 2.48 percentage points year-on-year due to lower raw milk prices and reduced discounting [2] - The net profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [3] - The company anticipates accelerated growth in Q4 2024, driven by favorable channel inventory levels and seasonal demand [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 29.037 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.337 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 119.2 billion yuan, 126 billion yuan, and 130.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 12.1 billion yuan, 11.4 billion yuan, and 11.9 billion yuan [4] Cost and Expense Management - The company reported a gross sales margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding expectations, due to cost reductions and rational expense management [2][3] - Capital expenditures decreased to 1.03 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 6.8 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to a 50% increase in operating cash flow [3] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable inventory situation and increased demand during the early Spring Festival, leading to potential growth acceleration in Q4 2024 [3]

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-105 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司关于 2024 年度 第二十、二十一期超短期融资券发行结果的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司(简称"公司")于 2024 年 5 月 20 日召开的 2023 年年度股东大会审议并通过了《公司关于申请注册发 行境内债务融资工具的议案》，同意公司注册发行余额合计不超过 400 亿 元人民币的多品种债务融资工具（DFI），详见公司刊登于上海证券交易 所网站的相关公告。 根据中国银行间市场交易商协会（简称"交易商协会"）出具的编号 为"中市协注〔2024〕DFI44 号"的《接受注册通知书》，交易商协会接 受公司债务融资工具注册。公司债务融资工具注册自《接受注册通知书》 落款之日起 2 年内有效，公司在注册有效期内可分期发行超短期融资券、 短期融资券、中期票据、永续票据、资产支持票据、绿色债务融资工具 等产品，也可定向发行相关产品，详见公司刊登于上海证券交易所网站 的相关公告。 ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-106 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于股份回购进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、回购股份的基本情况 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 4 月 28 日、2024 年 5 月 20 日召开第十一届董事会临时会议和 2023 年年 度股东大会，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案 的议案》，同意公司使用不低于人民币 10 亿元（含）且不超过人民币 20 亿元（含）的自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，回购价格不 超过人民币 41.88 元/股（含），回购期限自公司股东大会审议通过回购 方案之日起不超过 12 个月，回购股份将用于依法注销减少注册资本。具 体内容详见公司于 2024 年 5 月 21 日披露的《内蒙古伊利实业集团股份 有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的回购报告书》。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管 指引第 7 号--回购股份》 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 1 日 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 27.91 总股本/流通股本（亿股）63.66 / 63.34 总市值/流通市值（亿元）1,777 / 1,768 52 周内最高/最低价 29.29 / 21.37 资产负债率(%) 62.2% 市盈率 17.02 第一大股东 香港中央结算有限公司 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -33% -29% -25% -21% -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 伊利股份 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 伊利股份(600887) 收入压力有所缓解，盈利表现超预期 事件 公司2024年前三季度实现营业总收入/营业收入/归母净利润/扣 非 净 利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The revenue outlook for the company remains unclear, and the valuation is considered to be low in terms of cost-effectiveness [2] - The company's net profit for Q3 2024 grew by 8.5% year-on-year, slightly better than expectations, but concerns about future performance persist [2] - The profit margin expansion in Q3 2024 was primarily due to a significant decline in raw milk prices, a trend that is not expected to be sustainable [2] - Weak terminal demand for liquid milk continues, with no significant improvement in consumer willingness to purchase [2] - The company has seen a substantial increase in sales expense ratio over three consecutive quarters, indicating limited room for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 123.171 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, while 2023 revenue is projected at CNY 126.179 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.4% [3][6] - The company’s net profit for 2022 was CNY 9.431 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and is expected to reach CNY 10.429 billion in 2023, a growth of 10.6% [3][6] - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 15.7x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical performance [3][6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 expanded by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw milk prices and the end of inventory clearance [2][6] Market Expectations - The target price for the company is set at CNY 32.1, representing a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of CNY 27.9 [4][5] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately CNY 177.674 billion, with an average trading volume of CNY 1.7163 billion over the past three months [4][5]

感谢各位领导的出席各位投资者朋友大家上午好我是伊利股份邱向明也感谢大家一直以来对伊利的关注和支持欢迎大家今天参加今天我们的业绩电话会今天我们的业绩电话会大约进行一个小时会议将分为两个部分第一部分为公司三季度业绩的介绍第二部分为投资者问答环节 稍后会议小秘书也会向大家公布提问方式在会议开始前首先提示大家在我们的业绩会中将包含对未来展望部分的介绍和探讨这些前瞻性陈述仅反映公司目前对未来事件的观点而非对未来表现的保证也不构成对投资者的实质性承诺接下来我们进入本次业绩说明会的第一部分首先有请伊利股份投资者关系部总经理赵琳女士为大家介绍公司三季度的业绩情况 好的各位投资者大家上午好感谢大家来参加此次的业绩电话会议我先就三季度业绩给大家做一个简单的介绍前三季度公司的营业总收入为890.4亿元较同期下降了8.6%其中单三季度营业总收入为291.2亿元同比下降6.7% 利润方面前三季度公司实现利润总额125亿同比增长了14.5%规模净利润为108.7亿较上年同期增长了15.9%其中三季度公司的利润总额为37.5亿同比增长6.1%规模净利润为33.4亿元同比提升8.5% 扣飞后规模净利润同比增长43.4%三季度以来我们看到整体 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in revenue quarter-on-quarter, with profits exceeding expectations. The company achieved operating revenue of 89.039 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.59%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.869 billion yuan, an increase of 15.87% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 29.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.67%, and a net profit of 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.184 billion yuan, an increase of 19.86% year-on-year [1]. - The report notes that the company has seen a significant recovery in revenue due to channel inventory clearance and a reduction in the year-on-year decline in revenue [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q3 gross margin was recorded at 35.05%, an increase of 2.47 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to a decrease in the average price of raw milk by 14.9% year-on-year and a narrowing decline in retail prices [1]. - The report indicates that the company’s overall expense ratio has decreased, with sales expense ratio increasing by 1.08 percentage points year-on-year, while management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreased [1]. - The net profit margin for Q3 reached 11.41%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong profit performance that exceeded market expectations [1]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in all product categories, with liquid milk holding the top industry position, and the milk powder segment achieving the highest sales volume in the Chinese market [1]. - The report emphasizes that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on market recovery, with expectations for a substantial turnaround in the dairy product market in the coming year [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.87, 1.70, and 1.89 yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15X, 16X, and 15X [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 88.73 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.87 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% [2] - The company's proactive inventory control and channel adjustments have shown effectiveness, leading to a continuous improvement in profitability [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from industry supply-demand recovery, with a potential stabilization of milk prices by 2025 and supportive government policies to boost demand [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.04 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 35.0%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to declining raw milk prices and price recovery after channel adjustments [3] - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.5%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 118.09 billion yuan, 122.41 billion yuan, and 126.15 billion yuan, respectively, with expected revenue growth rates of -6.41%, 3.66%, and 3.06% [5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 11.86 billion yuan, 11.34 billion yuan, and 12.41 billion yuan, with profit growth rates of 13.77%, -4.42%, and 9.40% [5] - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 14, 15, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]

伊利股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600887） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...