阿 2024 年 10 月 31 日 顾向君 H70420@capitalcom.tw 目标价(元) 31 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 伊利股份(600887.SH) BUY 买进 渠道调整结束叠加原奶价格低位，3Q 超预期 结论与建议： 业绩概要： 公司公告 2024 年前三季度实现营业总收入 890.4 亿，同比下降 8.6%，录 得归母净利润 108.7 亿，同比增 15.9%，录得扣非后净利润 85 亿，同比下降 4.6%；3Q 实现营业总收入 291.2 亿，同比下降 6.7%，录得归母净利润 33.4 亿，同比增 8.5%，录得扣非后净利润 31.8 亿，同比增 13.4%。3Q 业绩好于我 们预期。 点评： 公司基本资讯 产业别 食品饮料 A 股价(2024/10/30) 26.44 上证指数(2024/10/30) 3266.24 股价 12 个月高/低 31.96/21.13 总发行股数(百万) 6365.96 A 股数(百万) 6334.47 A 市值(亿元) 1674.83 主要股东 香港中央 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [1][7] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 89.039 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.59%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.87% to 10.868 billion yuan [2] - The gross margin improved to 34.81%, up 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin reached 12.28%, an increase of 2.63 percentage points [3] - The liquid milk segment continues to face pressure, but the decline is narrowing, while the milk powder and dairy products segment shows growth, particularly in high-value categories like infant nutrition and cheese [3] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenues of 575.24 billion yuan from liquid milk, 213.30 billion yuan from milk powder and dairy products, and 83.44 billion yuan from cold drinks, with respective year-on-year changes of -12.09%, +7.09%, and -19.66% [3] - The company expects revenue to improve gradually as consumer demand recovers, with projected net profits of 11.472 billion yuan, 10.511 billion yuan, and 11.352 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][10] - The report forecasts an EPS of 1.80 yuan for 2024, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 14.7 [7][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its multi-channel strategy to explore consumer opportunities, with direct sales channels experiencing a revenue decline of 18.47% and distribution channels down by 8.44% [3] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 168.3 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 6.366 billion shares [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36 CNY, compared to the current price of 26.44 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, exceeding expectations due to effective adjustments in operations and cost management [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand and stabilization of raw milk prices, which could lead to a positive trend in the company's operations [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 887.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 108.7 billion CNY, an increase of 15.9% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 290.4 billion CNY, down 6.66% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 8.5% to 33.37 billion CNY [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 34.85%, an increase of 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost efficiency [1]. Product Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 10.3%, while the milk powder segment experienced a growth of 6.6% [1]. - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, leading to a reduction in promotional expenses and an optimized product mix [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is likely to benefit from a recovery in demand as inventory levels normalize and the market prepares for the upcoming peak season [2]. - The forecast for EPS has been adjusted upwards to 1.88 CNY for 2024, reflecting confidence in the company's recovery trajectory [2][3].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was RMB 29.04 billion, a decrease of 6.66% year-over-year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.34 billion, an increase of 8.53% year-over-year[3] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was RMB 0.52, an increase of 6.12% year-over-year[3] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was RMB 0.52, an increase of 8.33% year-over-year[3] - Weighted average return on equity (ROE) for the quarter was 6.12%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points year-over-year[3] - The company's total revenue for the first nine months of the year was RMB 88.73 billion, a decrease of 8.61% year-over-year[3] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 89.04 billion, a decrease of 8.6% compared to RMB 97.40 billion in the same period of 2023[10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 10.87 billion, an increase of 15.9% compared to RMB 9.38 billion in the same period of 2023[11] - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 1.71, up from RMB 1.47 in the same period of 2023[11] - Total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 10.80 billion, an increase of 24.2% compared to RMB 8.70 billion in the same period of 2023[11] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 79.39 billion yuan, compared to 87.27 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[18] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.75 billion yuan, up from 7.93 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[18] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of the year was RMB 13.87 billion, an increase of 18.46% year-over-year[3] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 13.87 billion, an increase of 18.5% compared to RMB 11.71 billion in the same period of 2023[13] - Cash received from sales of goods and services for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 94.74 billion, a decrease of 6.9% compared to RMB 101.74 billion in the same period of 2023[13] - Total cash inflows from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 98.74 billion, a decrease of 7.0% compared to RMB 106.20 billion in the same period of 2023[13] - Total cash outflows from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 84.87 billion, a decrease of 10.2% compared to RMB 94.49 billion in the same period of 2023[13] - Investment activities generated a net cash outflow of RMB 5.08 billion, compared to RMB 12.55 billion in the same period last year[14] - Financing activities resulted in a net cash outflow of RMB 5.35 billion, compared to a net cash inflow of RMB 13.08 billion in the same period last year[14] - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased by RMB 3.43 billion, reaching RMB 46.24 billion at the end of the period[14] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.6 billion yuan, down from 8.98 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[19] - Investment cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.61 billion yuan, compared to -7.4 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[19] - Financing cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -9.56 billion yuan, compared to 13.27 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[19] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the third quarter of 2024 were 21.17 billion yuan, down from 32.13 billion yuan at the end of the same period in 2023[19] Balance Sheet and Assets - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 150.62 billion, a slight decrease of 0.66% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - Equity attributable to shareholders increased by 5.02% to RMB 56.23 billion compared to the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets decreased to 150.615 billion CNY from 151.620 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[8] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to 50.114 billion CNY from 43.372 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[8] - Inventory decreased to 10.201 billion CNY from 12.512 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[8] - Accounts receivable decreased to 2.959 billion CNY from 3.085 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[8] - Fixed assets remained stable at 35.255 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[8] - Total assets increased to RMB 118.78 billion, up from RMB 117.51 billion at the end of the previous year[15] - Long-term equity investments increased to RMB 54.33 billion, up from RMB 50.77 billion at the end of the previous year[15] - Accounts receivable increased to RMB 1.74 billion, up from RMB 1.62 billion at the end of the previous year[15] - Inventory increased to RMB 3.51 billion, up from RMB 3.27 billion at the end of the previous year[15] Liabilities and Equity - Total liabilities decreased to 90.657 billion CNY from 94.300 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[9] - Short-term borrowings increased to 47.357 billion CNY from 39.755 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[9] - Total equity increased to 59.958 billion CNY from 57.320 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[9] - Long-term borrowings decreased to 5.977 billion CNY from 11.705 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[9] - Retained earnings increased to 34.644 billion CNY from 31.415 billion CNY compared to the end of 2023[9] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 72.66 billion, down from RMB 74.05 billion at the end of the previous year[16] - Short-term borrowings increased significantly to RMB 11.61 billion, up from RMB 6.11 billion at the end of the previous year[16] - The company's total equity increased to RMB 46.12 billion, up from RMB 43.46 billion at the end of the previous year[16] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 520,757[5] - Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited holds 692,371,652 shares, accounting for 10.88% of the total shares[5] - Hohhot Investment Co., Ltd., a state-owned legal entity, holds 538,535,826 shares, representing 8.46% of the total shares[5] - Pan Gang, an individual domestic shareholder, holds 286,746,628 shares, making up 4.50% of the total shares[5] - China Securities Finance Corporation holds 182,421,475 shares, accounting for 2.87% of the total shares[5] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - SSE 50 ETF holds 128,392,996 shares, representing 2.02% of the total shares[5] - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF holds 121,343,023 shares, making up 1.91% of the total shares[5] - Guofeng Xinghua (Beijing) Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. - Honghu Zhiyuan (Shanghai) Private Investment Fund Co., Ltd. holds 119,376,630 shares, accounting for 1.88% of the total shares[5] - China Life Insurance Company Limited - Traditional - General Insurance Product - 005L - CT001 Hu holds 119,090,816 shares, representing 1.87% of the total shares[5] - Zhao Chengxia, an individual domestic shareholder, holds 92,420,140 shares, making up 1.45% of the total shares[5] Expenses and Investments - Non-recurring gains and losses for the quarter amounted to RMB 152.94 million, primarily driven by government subsidies and asset disposal gains[4] - Sales expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 17.15 billion, a slight decrease of 0.3% compared to RMB 17.20 billion in the same period of 2023[10] - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 556.31 million, a slight increase of 0.7% compared to RMB 552.32 million in the same period of 2023[10] - Sales expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 14.76 billion yuan, slightly down from 14.82 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[18] - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 481.43 million yuan, up from 457.58 million yuan in the same period of 2023[18] - Investment income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.89 billion yuan, up from 3.03 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[18]

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-104 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于 2024 年第三季度经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十四号——食 品制造（2022 年修订）》的相关规定，现将内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有 限公司 2024 年第三季度主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、主营业务经营情况 （一）主营业务收入按产品类别分类情况 （二）主营业务收入按销售模式分类情况 单位：元 币种：人民币 | | 销售模式 | 2024 年 7-9 月 | 2024 | 年 1-9 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 经销 | | 27,899,312,063.52 | | 85,352,826,280.15 | | | 直营 | | 764,666,247.76 | | 2,435,920,212.44 | | | | 合计 | 28,663,978,311.28 | ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-103 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于计提资产减值准备的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）于2024年10月 29 日召开第十一届董事会第五次会议及第十一届监事会第五次会议，审 议通过了《公司关于计提资产减值准备的议案》。现对相关事项公告如下： 一、计提资产减值准备情况概述 为了客观、公允地反映公司 2024 年前三季度的财务状况及经营成果， 基于谨慎性原则，根据《企业会计准则》及公司会计政策的相关规定， 对相关资产进行减值测试并计提相应的资产减值准备。2024 年前三季度， 公司共计提资产减值准备 105,614.72 万元（未经审计），具体如下： 1 币种：人民币 单位：万元 项目 金额 信用减值损失 36,995.92 其中：应收账款减值损失 436.35 其他应收款减值损失 20.71 小额贷款减值损失 4,896.33 应收保理风险减值损失 31,656.23 应收代位追偿款减值 ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-102 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 第十一届监事会第五次会议决议公告 会议审议并通过了以下议案，形成如下决议： （一）审议并通过了《公司 2024 年第三季度报告》（具体内容详见 上海证券交易所网站 www.sse.com.cn）； 公司监事会认为：公司 2024 年第三季度报告的内容与格式符合上海 证券交易所的有关规定，所披露的信息真实、准确、完整地反映了公司 报告期内的财务状况和经营成果。公司 2024 年第三季度报告的编制和审 议程序符合法律法规和《公司章程》的相关规定，公司监事会未发现参 与此次三季报编制和审议的人员有违反保密规定的行为。 表决结果：同意5票，反对0票，弃权0票。 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）第十一届监事会 第五次会议于 2024 年 10 月 29 日（星期二）以通讯方式召开。本次会议 通知于 2024 年 10 月 19 日以邮件方式发出， ...

内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）第十一届董事会 第五次会议于 2024 年 10 月 29 日（星期二）以通讯方式召开。本次会议 通知于 2024 年 10 月 19 日以邮件方式发出，会议应当出席的董事十一名， 实际出席会议的董事十一名。会议符合《公司法》《公司章程》的有关规 定，合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-101 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 第十一届董事会第五次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 （二）审议并通过了《公司关于计提资产减值准备的议案》，（具体 内容详见上海证券交易所网站 www.sse.com.cn）。 本议案已经董事会审计委员会审议通过，并同意提交董事会审议。 表决结果：同意11票，反对0票，弃权0票。 特此公告 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 董 事 会 二○二四年十月三十一日 会议审议并通过了以下议案，形成如下决议： （一）审议并通过了《公司 2024 年第三季 ...

买入（首次） 所属行业：食品饮料/饮料乳品 当前价格(元)：27.01 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 韦香怡 资格编号：S0120522080002 邮箱：weixy＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 伊利股份 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|----------------|--------------|-------| | -17% 2023-10 \n沪深 300 对比 | 2024-02 \n1M | 2024-06 \n2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -6.26 | -3.21 | | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -1.17 | -2.12 | | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 伊利股份（600887.SH）：乳业领 航千亿巨擎，阔步迈进全球征程 投资要点 伊利股份：管理团队行稳致远，千亿乳企全面发展。公司成立至今六十余年，经 ...

证券代码：600887 证券简称：伊利股份 公告编号：临 2024-100 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开方式： 1、电话会议 2、上证路演中心音频直播结合网络互动 会议召开时间：2024 年 10 月 31 日（星期四）9:00-10:30，其 中，电话会议和上证路演中心音频直播时间为 9:00-10:00，上证路演 中心网络互动时间为 10:00-10:30。 投资者可于 2024 年 10 月 24 日（星期四）至 10 月 30 日（星期 三）16:00 前通过电话会议预报名系统或登录上证路演中心网站首页点 击"提问预征集"栏目进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关 注的问题进行回答。 内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（简称"公司"）将于 2024 年 10 月 31 日发布 2024 年第三季度报告。为便于广大投资者更全面、深 入地了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 20 ...