陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 位投资人，大家上午好。那也祝大家新年好，以及开工大吉。那今天上午，是中金组织的 大众食品的春节的情况跟踪电话会。我是中金的食品饮料组陈文博。那今天上午，我们请 到了两位综合的食品的专家与大家分享春节的情况。那第一位专家，主要负责华东、华中 以及华西地区的包括饮料，还有零食等大大的一些品类的运营。专家您好，能听到我说话 吗？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 你好，可以，没问题。 陈文博 中金公司食品饮料分析师: 对，那我们就开始。那第一个，首先我想问问，就是您代理的这个品类也比较多，那想问 一下春节期间，比如说这个几个大的品类，像乳制品、饮料、零食、速冻。包括调味品， 这几个品类分别的增速情况，和景气度。然后就综合来看的话，有没有什么地方比咱们之 前预期的要好，或者是要差的？ 华东华中华西食品综合专家: 我们先按照您刚才说的那个品类来说，我们今年的这个总体的品类分成像修石，修石我们 今年的整体性，春节的一二月份，这二月份我们是截止到 2 月 10 号左右。节前的这个数 据，那我们整体的出货比去年同期我们是增长了 10%左右，这所有的修饰，这里面主要是 以礼盒为主，这个品相。那从整个 ...

今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

转自：草原云 新闻编辑：李超然 2月21日，伊利现代智慧健康谷液态奶全球智造标杆基地内，工作人员在生产线前忙碌。春节期间，乳 制品市场订单量持续攀升，该企业多条生产线马力全开、高速运转，坚持生产不打烊、保供不断档，全 力保障市场供应。 内蒙古日报·草原云记者：王智华 ...

2月21日，伊利现代智慧健康谷液态奶全球智造标杆基地内，工作人员正在生产线前忙碌。春节期间， 乳制品市场订单量持续攀升，该企业多条生产线马力全开、高速运转，坚持生产不打烊、保供不断档， 全力保障市场供应。本报记者 王智华 摄 转自：内蒙古日报 （来源：内蒙古日报） ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US Supreme Court ruling on the $175 billion tariff refund has significant implications for both China and the A-share market, despite the refund being an internal US matter [2][6][28] - The $175 billion in tariffs was primarily collected from imports, including a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, and is now being refunded to US importers [8][10] - The refund will indirectly benefit Chinese companies as US importers, who have been financially strained by tariffs, will use the refunded money to pay off debts to Chinese suppliers and resume orders [12][14][28] Group 2 - The immediate impact on the A-share market is expected to be positive, with a potential "opening red" for A-shares as market sentiment improves following the ruling [40][46] - The ruling is seen as a signal that the previous high tariffs on Chinese goods may not be a permanent state, which could lead to a more favorable environment for Chinese exports [20][48] - Structural opportunities in the A-share market are identified, focusing on five main lines: export-oriented sectors, domestic substitution, strategic resources, domestic consumption, and new energy [51][62][88] Group 3 - Export-oriented sectors, particularly those with high exposure to the US market, are expected to benefit directly from the tariff refunds, with companies like Midea Group and Haier expected to see improved performance [52][72][73] - Domestic substitution and self-sufficiency in sectors like semiconductors and military equipment are highlighted as long-term strategic focuses, with companies like SMIC and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft being key players [53][78][86] - Strategic resources such as rare earths and gold are also expected to see price support due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions, benefiting companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shandong Gold [56][87]

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the Spring Festival Gala sponsorship reflects the changing landscape of China's economy and consumer behavior over the past 40 years, showcasing the transition from material scarcity to technological innovation and brand storytelling [4][24]. Group 1: 1980s to Early 1990s - The 1980s marked a period of material scarcity, where items like watches and radios were symbols of wealth and status, leading to the first brand sponsorship by 康巴丝 (Kangbasi) at the Spring Festival Gala [5][7]. - 康巴丝 sponsored the gala by trading 3,000 quartz watches for advertising, which significantly boosted its brand recognition and sales, reaching an annual production of 1.26 million watches by 1987 [8]. - The sponsorship model evolved, with 中华自行车 (Zhonghua Bicycle) taking over the sponsorship in 1995, reflecting the changing consumer demands and economic conditions [9][14]. Group 2: Mid-1990s to Early 2000s - The mid-1990s saw a surge in consumer spending, with the emergence of "标王" (advertising king) sponsorships, particularly in the liquor industry, exemplified by 山东孔府宴酒 (Shandong Confucius Feast Wine) and 秦池酒 (Qinchijiu) [11][12]. - 秦池酒's sponsorship led to a dramatic increase in sales from 1.8 billion yuan in 1995 to 9.5 billion yuan in 1996, highlighting the impact of gala sponsorship on brand visibility and sales [16]. - The era was characterized by a shift towards consumerism, with brands leveraging the gala to enhance their market presence, although some faced backlash due to quality issues [16]. Group 3: 2000s to Early 2010s - The early 2000s marked the rise of home appliance brands, with 美的 (Midea) becoming a prominent sponsor, securing 11 sponsorships from 2003 to 2014, reflecting the growing importance of brand trust [17][19]. - The cost of advertising skyrocketed, with Midea's sponsorship fee increasing from 6.8 million yuan in 2005 to 57.2 million yuan in 2011, indicating the gala's significant viewership and advertising value [21]. - Brands began to focus on storytelling and emotional connections with consumers, moving beyond mere product promotion to build brand loyalty [23]. Group 4: Mid-2010s to Present - The 2010s saw the rise of internet companies as key players in the advertising space, with platforms like WeChat revolutionizing audience engagement through interactive features like the "red envelope battle" during the gala [25][26]. - The digital transformation of the gala allowed for unprecedented levels of interaction, with WeChat reporting 10.1 billion red envelope transactions on New Year's Eve, significantly enhancing its user base [26]. - The emergence of technology companies in the gala sponsorship landscape reflects a broader shift towards innovation and digital engagement, with brands like Xiaomi and AI robotics showcasing advancements in technology [32].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a surge in market orders during the Spring Festival, leading to a peak in production activity to ensure a stable supply of high-quality dairy products for consumers [3][5]. Group 1: Production and Operations - The company has all 18 production lines operational to meet the increased demand during the festive season [3]. - Advanced automation technologies, including the Tetra Pak E3 high-speed filling machine, are utilized, achieving a filling speed of 40,000 packages per hour [3]. - The production process is fully digitized, with stringent monitoring at every stage to maintain quality standards [5]. Group 2: Employee Commitment - Employees are dedicated to their roles during the holiday season, with some choosing to work through the Spring Festival to ensure product availability for family gatherings [3]. - The commitment of the workforce is highlighted as a key factor in delivering fresh dairy products to consumers during the festive period [5]. Group 3: Market Demand - The demand for dairy products is driven by family reunions and dining consumption during the Spring Festival, prompting the company to ramp up production [3]. - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a steady supply chain from milk sources to production and logistics to meet market needs [3].

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. has been recognized as one of the "Inner Mongolia Time-honored Brands," reflecting its commitment to the dairy industry and its significant impact on the global dairy market [1][3]. Group 1: Company Background and Achievements - Yili has a history of over 60 years, starting from a cooperative of seven dairy farmers in Hohhot in 1956, and has grown to become one of the top five dairy companies globally and the leading dairy company in Asia [1][3]. - The company has maintained a rigorous selection of milk sources and a commitment to quality craftsmanship, which has solidified its brand reputation and industry influence [1][3]. Group 2: Innovation and Global Strategy - Yili has established a global resource, innovation, and market system, collaborating with over 2,000 partners across 39 countries and regions, and has set up 15 R&D innovation centers and 81 production bases [3]. - By the end of December 2025, Yili aims to rank second in global patent applications and first in China within the dairy industry, positioning itself as a leader in dairy innovation [3]. Group 3: Product and Quality Control Innovations - Yili has partnered with top international organizations like SGS and LRQA to create a comprehensive quality control system, achieving a 100% market inspection pass rate for several consecutive years [3]. - The company has developed products that cater to diverse consumer needs, such as lactose-free milk and leading products in the yogurt and organic milk segments, ensuring a balanced and robust product line [3]. Group 4: Social Responsibility and Local Impact - Yili emphasizes its social responsibility by supporting local agriculture and contributing to rural revitalization, enhancing the quality of the dairy industry and helping farmers increase their income [5]. - The company plays a pivotal role in upgrading local industries and fostering a sustainable development ecosystem, which benefits both the dairy sector and the local economy [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Yili is committed to maintaining its roots in Hohhot while pursuing global innovation and quality, aiming to lead the dairy industry towards high-end, intelligent, and green upgrades [5].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry in the A-share market has shown strong resilience with nearly 90% of the 19 major dairy companies experiencing stock price increases, reflecting a robust recovery in consumer demand [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - 17 out of 19 major dairy companies in the A-share market recorded stock price increases, indicating a significant upward trend in the sector [1] - Leading the gains are regional boutique dairy companies and segment leaders, with Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) achieving a remarkable 63.46% increase, followed by Knight Dairy (920786) at 50.83% and Beingmate (002570) at 48.65% [1][2] Group 2: Industry Leaders - Industry giants Yili (600887) and Mengniu (02319.HK) continue to serve as the "industry ballast," maintaining stable performance amidst a complex market environment [2] - Yili has shown positive growth and remains a preferred choice for investors due to its solid dividend capacity and fundamental stability, while Mengniu has strengthened its global position through ongoing brand upgrades and international expansion [2] Group 3: Divergence in Performance - Despite the overall positive trend, there are exceptions with Bright Dairy (600597) and Jiahe Foods (605300) experiencing declines of 1.54% and 8.79% respectively, attributed to intense competition and cost pressures [3] - Upstream companies like Modern Dairy (01117.HK) are facing challenges due to prolonged low raw milk prices, which have severely compressed profit margins [3] - The dairy sector is transitioning from "volume growth" to "quality transformation," with leading companies and regional dark horses contributing to the industry's prosperity, despite some facing short-term challenges [3]