Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The banking industry's net interest margin (NIM) is expected to reach its bottom level around 1.2% to 1.3%, indicating a potential end to the current downtrend in NIM [1][42]. - The report predicts a decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 10 basis points (bps) in 2026, which will likely lead to a year-on-year decrease in NIM of about 5 to 8 bps [2][3]. - The monetary policy for 2026 is characterized as "reasonable and ample" with a focus on precise adjustments, aiming to balance economic growth and financial stability [3][67]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality stocks that are expected to see an inflection point in NIM, such as Ningbo Bank and Changshu Bank, while also considering stocks with attractive dividend yields like China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [4][5]. NIM Analysis - The report estimates that the NIM for 2026 will narrow by approximately 2 to 5 bps, marking the likely end of the current downtrend cycle [66]. - The projected decline in loan rates is about 24 bps, which will negatively impact NIM by approximately 15 bps, while deposit rates are expected to decrease by 14 to 17 bps, providing a positive impact on NIM of about 10 to 13 bps [66][60]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy framework for 2026 emphasizes a balanced approach, with the LPR expected to decrease by 10 bps, contingent on economic conditions [3][68]. - The report highlights that maintaining stability in NIM and deposit rates will be a key objective for the People's Bank of China in 2026 [71][72].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of balancing positions, indicators, and costs in treasury liability strategies, focusing on liquidity management and cost optimization [2][14][16] - Current treasury strategies are characterized by a focus on long-term funding, short-term deposits, cost control, and improving liquidity indicators, with banks experiencing reduced cost pressures and increased expected liquidity gaps [3][4][6] - The report identifies that the expected liquidity gap is exacerbated by factors such as the non-bankization of deposits and the concentration of high-interest deposits maturing, estimating that 17 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits will mature in the second half of 2025, and 26 trillion yuan in the first half of 2026 [3][4][19] Group 2 - The liquidity risk indicators are under pressure, with some joint-stock banks experiencing a rapid decline in their Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), indicating a reliance on the liability side for liquidity adjustments [4][5][22] - The report suggests that the pricing of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) may increasingly reflect internal management demands, with banks focusing on managing liquidity gaps and improving liquidity indicators through NCD issuance [5][6][20] - Investment recommendations include positioning in large state-owned banks, core holdings in leading comprehensive banks, and flexible allocations in regional banks, with specific banks identified as beneficiaries [6][14][19]

Core Points - Jiangsu Bank issued a new financial bond on December 3, 2025, with a total issuance amount of 5 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.87% [1] Group 1 - The bond is a 3-year floating rate bond [1] - The issuance is part of Jiangsu Bank's ongoing financing strategy [1]

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Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced changes to several indices, including the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Sungrow Power Supply (300274), while removing Jiangsu Bank (600919) and SF Holding (002352) [4][6]. - The FTSE China 50 Index will add China Hongqiao, CATL (300750), and Hengrui Medicine (600276), while excluding CITIC Securities (601066), Great Wall Motors (601633), and Li Auto [6][8]. - The FTSE China A150 Index will incorporate Ying Shi Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, Huadian New Energy, SF Holding, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt (603799), while removing Luoyang Molybdenum, Desay SV (002920), Changdian Technology (600584), Baoxin Software (600845), Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607), and Sungrow Power Supply [10][12]. - The FTSE China A200 Index will add Ying Shi Innovation, Huadian New Energy, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, while excluding Desay SV, Changdian Technology, Baoxin Software, and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [12]. - The FTSE China A400 Index will see a broader adjustment, adding Anji Technology (688019), Baiyin Nonferrous (601212), Yitang Co., and Bluefocus Communication Group (300058), while removing Chipbond Technology, Yipin Hong (300723), Guanghui Network (300383), and Huaxi Biological [13][14]. Group 2: Market Impact - The adjustments by FTSE Russell are expected to attract passive fund allocations to the newly included stocks and increase overseas interest in Chinese assets [17]. - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, significantly surpassing the total of $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, marking an increase of over three times [17]. - UBS forecasts that A-share market earnings growth will rise from 6% this year to 8% next year, driven by improved nominal GDP growth and a narrowing of PPI declines [17]. - JPMorgan upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," citing a higher likelihood of significant gains next year compared to potential downside risks [18]. - Morgan Stanley set a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4840 points by December 2026, indicating a stable outlook for Chinese stocks amid moderate earnings growth and higher valuation levels [18].

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review results for the FTSE China Index Series, effective from December 22, 2025, with changes in constituent stocks for various indices [1] Group 1: FTSE China A50 Index Changes - Two new constituents added: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Sunshine Energy [1] - Two constituents removed: SF Express (002352) and Jiangsu Bank (600919) [1] Group 2: FTSE China 50 Index Changes - Three new constituents added: China Hongqiao, CATL (300750), and Hengrui Medicine (600276) [1] - Three constituents removed: CITIC Securities (601066), Great Wall Motors (601633), and Li Auto [1] Group 3: Future Review Schedule - The next quarterly review for the FTSE China Index will be announced in March [1]

Group 1 - FTSE Russell announced the quarterly review results for the FTSE China Index Series, effective from December 22, 2025 [1] - The FTSE China A50 Index added two constituents: Luoyang Molybdenum and Sunshine Energy, while removing SF Express and Jiangsu Bank [1] - The FTSE China 50 Index added three constituents: China Hongqiao, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, while removing CITIC Securities, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [1] - The next quarterly review for the FTSE China Index will be announced in March [1]

Group 1 - China's self-developed reusable launch vehicle Zhuque-3 successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a new milestone in the country's commercial space industry, with predictions that the industry could reach a scale of 7-10 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - The U.S. ADP employment report for November showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs, the largest drop in two and a half years, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government is promoting new urbanization as a key driver for expanding domestic demand and upgrading industries, emphasizing the need for urban renewal and addressing the urban-rural dual structure [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that the trade-in program for consumer goods has generated over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting over 360 million people [3] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.78%, while the coal sector saw gains [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.28%, with significant net buying from southbound funds, particularly in Alibaba [5] Group 4 - New active equity funds have shown signs of building positions, with over 80% of newly established funds experiencing net value fluctuations, while the consensus is to focus on AI applications for future allocations [6] - Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "overweight," citing a higher risk of significant gains compared to losses [6] Group 5 - The Chinese government has initiated a parenting subsidy program for families with children under three years old, with over 30 million applications submitted and approved [4] - Cambodia will implement a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens from June to October 2026, allowing for multiple entries [4] Group 6 - The cultural and tourism sector in China is set to integrate with the civil aviation industry through a new action plan aimed at enhancing domestic travel accessibility and developing low-altitude tourism [9] - The Chinese passenger car market saw retail sales of 2.263 million units in November, a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the new energy vehicle market grew by 7% [9] Group 7 - The China Internet Finance Association is enhancing self-regulation for financial applications and mini-programs, aiming to mitigate risks associated with digital financial channels [10] - Binance appointed co-founder He Yi as co-CEO to expand its global business and strengthen compliance efforts [10] Group 8 - The U.S. stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.86%, while the tech sector faced declines, particularly in Chinese concept stocks [15] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the French market benefiting from consumer sector resilience [15] Group 9 - The domestic bond market experienced narrow fluctuations, with most interest rates rising, while the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation [17] - The U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [17] Group 10 - International precious metals futures generally rose, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and positive economic data from Europe [18] - Crude oil prices increased amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [18]

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to several indices, including the FTSE China 50 Index, FTSE China A50 Index, FTSE China A150 Index, FTSE China A200 Index, and FTSE China A400 Index, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025 [1][17]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, while removing Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [3][19]. - The FTSE China 50 Index will add China Hongqiao, CATL, and Heng Rui Medicine, and remove CITIC Securities, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [5][21]. - The FTSE China A150 Index will add Ying Shi Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, Huadian New Energy, SF Holding, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, while removing Luoyang Molybdenum, Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and Sungrow Power [9][25]. - The FTSE China A200 Index will include Ying Shi Innovation, Huadian New Energy, Jiangbolong, and Huayou Cobalt, and exclude Desay SV, Longi Green Energy, Baoxin Software, and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [11][27]. - The FTSE China A400 Index will see a broader adjustment, adding Anji Technology, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Yitang Co., and BlueFocus, while removing Chipbond Technology, Yipin Hong, Guanghuan Xin, and Huaxi Biological [12][28]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The adjustments by FTSE Russell are expected to attract passive fund allocations to the included stocks and increase overseas interest in Chinese assets [15][31]. - In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, significantly surpassing the $11.4 billion for the entire year of 2024, marking an increase of over three times [15][31]. - UBS forecasts that the A-share market will see an increase in earnings growth from 6% this year to 8% next year, driven by improved nominal GDP growth and a narrowing of PPI declines [16][32]. - Morgan Stanley has set a target for the CSI 300 Index at 4,840 points by December 2026, indicating a stable outlook for Chinese stocks amid moderate earnings growth and higher valuation levels [16][32].

Core Viewpoint - FTSE Russell announced adjustments to the FTSE China A50 and other indices, effective after the market close on December 19, 2025, with changes primarily based on market capitalization [2][4]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power Supply, while excluding Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [5][11]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has doubled since July, with a market capitalization nearing 380 billion yuan [7]. - Sungrow Power Supply, a leader in the energy storage sector, has seen its stock price increase by over 200% since July, with a market capitalization of 367.2 billion yuan as of December 3 [9]. Group 2: Backup Stocks and Other Indices - Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding have been placed on the backup stock list for the FTSE China A50 Index, along with companies like Seres, Shenghong Technology, and Wanhua Chemical [11]. - The FTSE China 50 Index and FTSE China A150 Index also underwent adjustments, with companies like China Hongqiao, CATL, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical being added, while CITIC Securities H shares, Great Wall Motors H shares, and Li Auto were removed [13][14]. - The FTSE China A150 Index will include Ying Shi Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, and others, while excluding Luoyang Molybdenum and others [15].