银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 净利润增速转正，息差阶段性企稳 ——25Q4 银行业监管指标数据点评 核心观点 ⚫ 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 2026 年银行板块有望回归基本面叙事："十五五"开局之年，政策性金融工具加持 下资产扩张仍有韧性；仍处于存款集中重定价周期，支撑净息差有望企稳；结构性 风险暴露仍期待有政策托底。2026 年，保险行业将系统性执行 I9，公募考核新规的 中长期引导效应也有望显现，我们看好 2026 年银行板块绝对收益。现阶段关注两条 投资主线： 1、基本面确定的优质中小行，相关标的：南京银行(601009，买入)、宁波银行 (002142，买入)、渝农商行(601077，买入)； 2、基本面稳健、具备较好防御价值的国有大行，相关标的：交通银行(601328，未 评级)、工商银行(601398，未评级)。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking industry has shown a recovery in profit growth, with net profit for commercial banks increasing by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.35 percentage points [13][14] - The overall asset growth of commercial banks continued, with total assets increasing by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, while loan growth slightly decreased to 7.26% year-on-year [29][30] - Net interest margin stabilized for two consecutive quarters at 1.42%, with expectations for a gradual recovery in 2026 [54] Summary by Sections Performance - The net profit of commercial banks increased by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing growth rates of 2.25%, -2.84%, 12.87%, and 4.57% respectively [13][14] - The return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) for commercial banks were 7.78% and 0.60%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.33 percentage points and 0.03 percentage points respectively [13] Scale - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, with state-owned banks showing a growth rate of 10.78% [29][30] - Loan growth for commercial banks was 7.26% year-on-year, with city commercial banks experiencing a counter-cyclical increase in loan growth [29][30] Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline of 10.50 basis points [54] - Expectations for 2026 indicate potential downward pressure on net interest margins in Q1, but a gradual recovery is anticipated thereafter [54] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was 1.50%, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.00 basis points, while the provision coverage ratio was 205.21% [54] Capital - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 10.92%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.05 percentage points [54]

晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 033 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 1 银行业（郭怡萍） 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年四季度银行业主要监管指标数据情况。 商业银行盈利增速回正，净利润增速逐季提升。2025 年，商业银行净利润同比增长 2.3%， 年内净利润增速持续提升。分机构类型看，城商行和农商行净利润增速在低基数基础上实 现较快的利润增长，净利润增速分别达 12.9%和 4.6%。大型银行净利润增速持平为 2.3%， 股份制银行净利润增速则下降至-2.8%。商业银行资本利润率 7.78%，资产利润率 0.60%，均 较前值有所下降。其中，大型银行资产利润率保持在 0.67%，体现一定盈利能力韧性。 商业银行息差延续边际趋稳态势，支持提升核心盈利能力。四季度银行净利息收益率 1.42%，持平于三季度，二季度以来净息差整体保持稳定，有助于提升核心盈利能力。全年 来看，商业银行息差同比下降 11 BP，基本符合预期，其中城商行息差体现出较强的韧性， 同比仅下行 1 BP。商业银行非利息收入占比为 22.53%，较三季度继续下降，主要是债市波 动所致。 时 间：2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Lunar New Year misalignment has disrupted the deposit growth rhythm, with a continued trend of personal fixed deposits migrating from small to large banks [2][4]. - On the asset side, credit growth continues to slow down, with a significant increase in short-term loans, particularly among large banks [4]. Summary by Sections Liabilities - The Lunar New Year misalignment has caused disturbances in deposit growth [3]. - Total deposits increased by CNY 3.5 trillion year-on-year, with demand deposits and fixed deposits increasing by CNY 2.5 trillion and decreasing by CNY 912 billion, respectively [5]. Assets - Total loans decreased by CNY 489.3 billion year-on-year, with large banks and small banks seeing decreases of CNY 213 billion and CNY 276.3 billion, respectively [4]. - Short-term loans increased by CNY 347.8 billion year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans decreased by CNY 377.2 billion [4]. - Large banks saw a year-on-year increase of CNY 419.7 billion in short-term loans, while small banks experienced a decrease of CNY 718 million [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment in the banking sector: 1. Identifying targets with expected performance growth, recommending banks like Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [6]. 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank [6]. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending banks such as Bank of Communications and Jiangsu Bank [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

今日，银行板块跌幅为0.34%。渝农商行、重庆银行为该板块跌幅前两名的上市公司。 (责任编辑：田云绯) 中国经济网北京2月24日讯 渝农商行(601077.SH)今日收报6.52元，跌幅1.95%；重庆银行 (601963.SH)今日收报10.05元，跌幅1.57%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural relaxation of refinancing policies, which is expected to improve profitability in the banking sector. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy report emphasizes the implementation of personal credit repair measures, supporting micro-entities [1][28]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the order of securities > insurance > banking, with a focus on the potential for marginal improvements in the brokerage business due to the recent refinancing policy adjustments [12][24]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The optimization of refinancing measures announced by the exchanges is expected to lead to marginal improvements in the brokerage business, with leading firms likely to solidify their advantages through professional capabilities. The Chinese brokerage index performed better than the Hang Seng index during the holiday period, increasing by 0.20% [2][13]. - Recommended stocks include leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional firms like Guoyuan Securities [3][12]. Insurance Sector - The report notes a mixed performance in the insurance sector, with property insurance companies showing gains while life insurance companies mostly declined. China Property & Casualty Insurance rose by 5%, while China Taiping fell by 4% [24][25]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality leaders in the insurance sector, with a preference for defensive stocks like China Ping An and China Life Insurance for conservative investors [24][25]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with Q4 profits improving and net interest margins stabilizing. The report indicates a year-on-year increase in social financing, primarily due to the pre-positioning of government bonds and a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing [28][37]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [3][28].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector's net profit growth has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% in Q4 2025, showing an improvement compared to the previous quarters [4][10]. - The net interest margin has stabilized at 1.42%, with expectations of a narrowing decline in 2026 due to the re-pricing of high-cost long-term deposits and a slowdown in the reduction of new loan rates [4][10]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.50%, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4][10]. - The capital adequacy ratio improved slightly to 15.5%, reflecting a marginal increase in capital levels [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Regulatory Indicators for Q4 2025 - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.0% year-on-year, with large banks showing a growth rate of 10.8% [7]. - The average capital return rate was 7.78%, and the average asset return rate was 0.60% [10]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy by the central bank, aimed at stabilizing economic growth and ensuring adequate liquidity [10]. - The banking sector's focus for 2026 includes identifying banks with potential for performance growth, particularly recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [4][10]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - The report includes weekly tracking of stock performance, with notable fluctuations in bank stock prices, indicating market volatility [18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy-driven financial tools [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in January 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of asset expansion in the banking sector, supported by a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, which is expected to stabilize net interest margins [25][26]. - It identifies two main investment themes: quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals and state-owned banks with defensive value [26]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In January 2026, social financing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1,654 billion yuan more than the previous year [9][10]. - The report notes that the increment in government bonds was significant, with an increase of 2,831 billion yuan, marking the highest level for January since 2020 [10]. - The report indicates that the growth rate of loans fell to 6.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 4.71 trillion yuan, which is 4,200 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. Deposit Growth and Monetary Aggregates - M1 and M2 growth rates showed a rebound, with M1 increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and M2 by 9.0% [21]. - The report states that new RMB deposits reached 8.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.77 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate and non-bank deposits [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment lines: quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which are rated as stable [25][26].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]