银行 2025 年 4 月 28 日 常熟银行(601128.SH) 非息支撑营收稳健，资产质量保持优异 强烈推荐（维持） 股价：7.26 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 银行 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.csrcbank.com | | 大股东/持股 | 交通银行股份有限公司/9.01% | | 实际控制人 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 3,015 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 3,015 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 219 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 219 | | 每股净资产(元) | 9.57 | | 资产负债率(%) | 91.9 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】常熟银行（601128.SH）*年报点评*息差 显韧性，资产质量保持优异*强烈推荐20250328 证券分析师 | 袁喆奇 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520080003 | | | YUANZHEQI052@pingan.com.cn | | 许淼 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S10605250 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank's Q1 2025 revenue reached 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.1 billion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year [4][6] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 0.76% quarter-on-quarter, and the provision coverage ratio fell by 11 percentage points to 490% [4][9] - The bank's performance remains strong, with revenue and profit growth placing it in the leading tier of the industry despite a slight slowdown in growth rates [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 9,870.29 in 2023 to 11,601.01 in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.05% in 2023, 10.53% in 2024, and 6.34% in 2025E [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3,281.50 million yuan in 2023 to 4,199.74 million yuan in 2025E, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.60% in 2023, 16.20% in 2024, and 10.14% in 2025E [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.69% in 2023, 14.12% in 2024, and 13.83% in 2025E [5] Key Operational Insights - The bank's non-interest income saw a significant increase of 62% year-on-year in Q1 2025, contributing 9.3 percentage points to revenue growth [6][9] - Interest income grew by 0.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by asset expansion despite a narrowing interest margin [6][9] - Loan growth was 6.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a focus on optimizing the loan structure and reducing risk exposure [6][11]

Core Insights - The performance of A-share listed rural commercial banks in 2024 shows significant growth, with notable leaders being Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, whose revenue and net profit gaps are narrowing [1][2] - Changshu Bank stands out with the highest net interest margin among all rural commercial banks and A-share listed banks, achieving a net interest margin of 2.71% [3][5] - Many rural commercial banks have seen substantial increases in investment income due to favorable market conditions, with some banks reporting over 100% growth in this area [9][12] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank achieved approximately 28.3 billion in revenue, while Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank reached about 26.6 billion, with both banks significantly outperforming others [2] - The net profit for Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank was 12.6 billion and 11.8 billion respectively, indicating a close competition [2] - The revenue gap between the two banks is around 1.5 billion, and the net profit gap is less than 1 billion [2] Group 2: Changshu Bank's Leadership - Changshu Bank's net interest margin of 2.71% is significantly higher than the average of other rural commercial banks, which are generally below 2.0% [3][5] - The bank's loan structure, with 56% of total loans being personal loans, contributes to its leading position in net interest margin [5] - The average interest rate on personal loans for Changshu Bank reached 6.8%, the highest among A-share listed rural commercial banks [6] Group 3: Investment Income Growth - Several rural commercial banks, including Zhangjiagang Bank, Zijin Bank, and Ruifeng Bank, reported investment income growth rates exceeding 100% [9] - Zhangjiagang Bank attributed its investment income increase to a significant expansion in its bond trading account [12] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank's investment income growth was driven by improved market analysis and diversified investment strategies [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changshu Bank is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.63 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.26 CNY [6]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience, with revenue growth of 10.04%, pre-provision profit growth of 12.58%, and net profit growth of 13.81%. Although the growth rates have slightly declined, they remain at a high level [1]. - The bank's performance is primarily driven by the expansion of interest-earning assets and an increase in net non-interest income, despite a significant drag from declining interest margins [1]. Summary by Sections Asset Growth - As of the end of Q1 2025, Changshu Bank's total assets grew by 6.67% year-on-year, with an increase of 22.4 billion CNY in total assets during the quarter. Financial investments contributed 11.7 billion CNY, accounting for 52.00% of the increase, while loans increased by 8.8 billion CNY [2]. - The loan portfolio saw a year-on-year growth of 6.12%, supported by corporate loans, while financial investments increased by 3.36%. The proportion of loans in interest-earning assets decreased by 1.49 percentage points to 63.36% [2]. Retail and Corporate Lending - Retail loan demand remains weak, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.1% in retail loans. The bank has proactively slowed down retail loan disbursements due to ongoing retail risks [3]. - Corporate loans grew by 13.04% year-on-year, with a stable growth rate. The bank focused on supporting technology innovation enterprises and small businesses, with loans of 10 million CNY or less making up 71.33% of total loans [3]. Liability Management - As of the end of Q1 2025, deposits grew by 9.00% year-on-year, outpacing loan growth, with a continuous optimization of the deposit structure. The proportion of demand deposits increased by 1.06 percentage points to 19.17% [4]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 2.61%, showing a year-on-year decline of 22 basis points but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2 basis points. The bank's loan yield was 5.42%, down 21 basis points from the beginning of the year [5]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 62.01% year-on-year, driven by a 495.23% increase in net fee income, primarily due to a low base last year and increased fees from services like precious metals and insurance [9]. Cost Efficiency and Asset Quality - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 34.74%, down 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, indicating initial success in cost reduction and efficiency enhancement [9]. - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.56%. The bank is expected to continue efforts in managing non-performing loans [9]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain resilience in performance, with projected revenue growth of 9.71% and profit growth of 13.39% for 2025. The focus will be on optimizing customer service and enhancing small business lending [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.971 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.0%, and a net profit of 1.083 billion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year. Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 62.0%, contributing to the overall revenue growth [1][4]. - The net interest margin (NIM) decreased by 22 basis points year-on-year to 2.61%, reflecting industry-wide pressure. The company managed to control deposit costs effectively, with the deposit cost rate declining by 19 basis points to 2.01% [2][4]. - Retail loan demand remains weak, with total loans at 249.6 billion yuan, a growth of 3.6% year-on-year. The company is focusing on quality customer selection, leading to a slowdown in loan growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a 10.0% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.083 billion yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year. Non-interest income accounted for 22.0% of total revenue, with a significant increase in fees and other non-interest income [1][4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 4.410 billion yuan, 5.209 billion yuan, and 6.168 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 18.1%, and 18.4% [4][5]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.76%, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year. The provision coverage ratio is at 490%, indicating a strong position compared to peers [3][4]. - The company has a total asset of 389 billion yuan, with loans totaling 249.6 billion yuan and deposits at 309 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, 3.6%, and 7.9%, respectively [3][4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the small and micro-enterprise lending market, with a comprehensive network in Jiangsu province and plans for further expansion into other regions [4][6]. - Despite the current economic recovery being slow and micro-loan pressures, the long-term investment value of the company is viewed positively, with a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.68x for 2025 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 8.86 [8][11]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong resilience in performance, with a year-on-year increase in net profit and operating income of 13.8% and 10.0% respectively for Q1 2025 [1]. - Non-interest income has significantly supported growth, with a year-on-year increase of 62% in non-interest income for Q1 2025, contributing to a high revenue growth [3]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 490% as of March 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the annualized ROE and ROA increased by 0.15 percentage points and 0.06 percentage points to 14.89% and 1.23% respectively [1]. - Interest income growth faced pressure, but non-interest income, particularly from investment gains and foreign exchange, showed rapid growth [1][3]. Credit and Interest Margin - As of March 2025, total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 6.7%, 6.1%, and 6.8% respectively, indicating a cautious approach to credit growth [2]. - The net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 2.61%, primarily due to pricing pressure on the asset side [2]. Non-Interest Income and Cost Management - Non-interest income accounted for 22.0% of total revenue, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, with significant contributions from investment income and foreign exchange [3]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved, decreasing by 5.4 percentage points to 34.7% [3]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The company maintains a strong asset quality with a non-performing loan generation rate of 1.09% for Q1 2025, indicating potential short-term pressure on small and micro enterprises [4]. - Capital adequacy ratios as of March 2025 were 13.67% for total capital and 10.78% for core Tier 1 capital, reflecting a slight decrease from the end of 2024 [4]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 42 billion, RMB 47 billion, and RMB 53 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 11.4%, and 11.6% respectively [5]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.85 for 2025, indicating a valuation premium due to the company's resilient business model [5].

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and profit in Q1 2025, despite a slight slowdown in scale growth due to weak credit demand. The recovery of the economy is expected to improve demand from small and micro enterprises, providing significant room for credit expansion. Although the net interest margin continues to narrow under asset-side pressure, the ongoing optimization of deposit costs is expected to support the margin. The bank is projected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit release in 2025. The current low dividend rate has suppressed the bank's valuation, which does not align with its strong fundamentals, indicating substantial potential for valuation recovery if the dividend rate improves in the future [1][10][11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changshu Bank reported operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 11 percentage points to 489.6% [2][3][9]. Revenue Composition - The bank's net interest income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting stable growth despite weak credit demand, particularly in small and micro loans. Non-interest income surged by 495.2%, driven by significant growth in fees from insurance and precious metals. Other non-interest income increased by 48.8%, supported by a rise in foreign exchange gains [3][4][5]. Credit Demand and Loan Growth - Credit demand remains weak, leading to a slowdown in loan growth. In Q1 2025, the loan scale increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 7.3% and retail loans by only 0.2%. The bank's strategy of focusing on small and scattered loans has allowed it to maintain a stable loan portfolio despite the challenging environment [5][6][8]. Deposit and Funding Strategy - Changshu Bank's deposits grew by 9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in demand deposits and a reduction in high-cost savings. The bank's proactive management of deposit structure has improved the cost of funding, which is expected to support the net interest margin [7][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and it has effectively managed retail asset quality through rigorous risk control and increased write-offs. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable, allowing for a gradual release of provisions to support profit growth [9][10]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - Despite strong fundamentals, Changshu Bank's current valuation is significantly undervalued at 0.68 times the 2025 PB ratio. The low dividend yield has constrained its valuation, but there is substantial potential for recovery if the dividend rate improves. The bank is expected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth in the coming years [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing double-digit growth, driven by enhanced non-interest income contributions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 30 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11 billion, up 13.8% year-on-year [1]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) improved to 14.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The growth rates for revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit in Q1 2025 were 10%, 12.6%, and 13.8% respectively, with slight variations compared to Q4 2024 [2]. Asset and Loan Growth - The growth rate of interest-earning assets and loans as of the end of Q1 2025 was 8.3% and 6.1% respectively, both showing a decline compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - New loans in Q1 2025 totaled 8.8 billion, a decrease of 4 billion year-on-year, with corporate loans being the primary contributor [3]. - The bank's strategy focuses on small and micro enterprises, with loans of 10 million and below accounting for 71.3% of total loans [3]. Deposit Trends - The growth of interest-bearing liabilities and deposits in Q1 2025 was 8.6% and 9% respectively, both lower than at the end of 2024 [4]. - New deposits in Q1 2025 amounted to 22.5 billion, a decrease of 13.1 billion year-on-year, with a notable increase in the proportion of time deposits [4]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 2.61%, narrowing by 10 basis points compared to 2024 [5]. - The yield on interest-earning assets decreased to 4.41%, down 33 basis points year-on-year, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities fell to 2.03%, down 24 basis points [5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew significantly, reaching 6.5 billion in Q1 2025, a 62% increase year-on-year, contributing 22% to total revenue [5][6]. - Investment income was 6.7 billion, up 21% year-on-year, despite some losses in fair value changes [6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained low at 0.76%, with a slight decrease from the end of 2024 [6]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 489.6%, indicating strong risk absorption capacity [6]. Capital Adequacy - As of the end of Q1 2025, the core Tier 1, Tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios were 10.8%, 10.8%, and 13.7% respectively, all showing a decline from the end of 2024 [7]. - The bank has a low conversion ratio for its 6 billion convertible bonds, with the current stock price providing room for potential conversion [7]. Future Outlook - The bank maintains a strong growth outlook, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.41, 1.56, and 1.65 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong revenue resilience with a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 30 billion yuan, and a 13.8% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, totaling 11 billion yuan [4][5] - Non-interest income has significantly contributed to the overall performance, with a remarkable 62% year-on-year growth in non-interest income, now accounting for 22% of total revenue [9][11] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) remains under pressure, recorded at 2.61%, down 10 basis points from 2024, influenced by factors such as insufficient effective financing demand and intensified competition [8][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit growth rates were 10% and 13.8% respectively, with a return on average equity (ROAE) of 14.9%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] - The bank's non-interest income reached 6.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 62%, driven by higher fees from services like precious metals and insurance [9] Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of Q1 2025, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.3% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a slight slowdown in asset expansion [6] - New loans added in Q1 2025 amounted to 8.8 billion yuan, with a notable focus on corporate loans, which accounted for 66 billion yuan of the new loans [6] Deposit Trends - The growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities and deposits was 8.6% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, showing a decline compared to the end of 2024 [7] - The bank's deposit structure is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in the proportion of fixed-term deposits [7] Risk and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained low at 0.76%, with a strong risk coverage capability indicated by a provision coverage ratio of 489.6% [10] - Capital adequacy ratios as of Q1 2025 were 10.8% for core tier 1 and 13.7% for total capital, reflecting a solid capital position [10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 at 1.41, 1.56, and 1.65 yuan, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.68, 0.60, and 0.54 [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 3 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, indicating year-on-year growth of 10.04% and 13.81% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Performance - Revenue and net profit growth rates for Q1 2025 were 10.04% and 13.81%, showing a slight decline from the previous year's growth rates by 0.5 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points respectively [2]. - Net interest income increased by 0.91% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous year, with a net interest margin of 2.61%, down 10 basis points [2]. - Non-interest income saw significant growth, with net fee and commission income increasing by 495.23% due to a low comparative base from the previous year, and other non-interest income rising by 48.84% [3]. Group 2: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.76%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter, while the provision coverage ratio was 489.56%, down 11 percentage points from the end of the previous year [4]. - The credit cost for Q1 2025 was 0.96%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5 basis points [4]. Group 3: Assets and Liabilities - As of the end of Q1 2025, total assets and loans were 389 billion yuan and 249.6 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 6.67% and 6.12% [5]. - Total deposits reached 309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.00%, with a net increase of 22.5 billion yuan in the quarter, primarily driven by time deposits [5]. - The proportion of demand deposits increased to 19.17%, up 1.06 percentage points from the beginning of the year, indicating a strategic shift in deposit pricing [5]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Changshu Bank is viewed as having a rare "growth" attribute, with stable asset quality and a high provision buffer, suggesting continued strong performance in the coming years [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are expected to be 4.3 billion, 4.8 billion, and 5.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 12.22%, 11.70%, and 10.17% respectively [5].