本期债券拟发行金额6亿元，承销商为天风证券。2025年7月4日，经中证鹏元综合评定，发行人主体评级为AA，评级展 望稳定。 【大河财立方消息】2月2日，新乡平原示范区投资集团有限公司2025年面向专业投资者非公开发行公司债券，获上交所 通过。 责编:史健 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 | TI/Za | | | --- | --- | | 债券名称 | 新乡平原示范区投资集团有限公司2025年面向专业 | | | 投资者非公开发行公司债券 | | 品种 | 私募 | | 拟发行金额(亿元) | 6. 0000 | | 发行人 | 新乡平原示范区投资集团有限公司 | | 承销商 | 天风证券股份有限公司 | | 交易所确认文件文号 | 上证函〔2026〕476 블 | | 项目状态 | 通过 | | 出函日期 | 2026-01-30 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to improve significantly due to the recovery of the A-share market, with many firms reporting substantial increases in revenue and net profit [1][2][6]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - As of the end of January, 22 listed securities firms reported positive earnings forecasts, with 8 firms expecting a net profit increase of over 70% [1]. - Among the top performers, CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 748.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 300.51 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [1][2]. - Other firms with over 100 billion yuan in net profit include Guotai Junan and China Merchants Securities, with expected profits of 275.33 billion to 280.06 billion yuan and 123 billion yuan, respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The increase in profits is attributed to the recovery of the A-share market, which has led to higher trading volumes and improved performance in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [6][8]. - Mergers and acquisitions have also played a significant role in boosting profits, with Guotai Junan and Guolian Minsheng both reporting over 100% growth in net profit due to successful integration efforts [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite recent market fluctuations, analysts remain optimistic about the future performance of securities stocks, suggesting that the sector will benefit from increased market activity and potential policy support [7][9]. - The overall profit growth for the securities sector in 2025 is projected to reach approximately 46%, driven by ongoing reforms in the investment sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to decline, with silver dropping 7% and gold falling 4.7%, breaching the $4500 mark, indicating a significant market correction driven by profit-taking and forced liquidation of leveraged positions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent drop in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including policy expectations, trading congestion, and exchange interventions [5]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has heightened hawkish expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, which negatively impacts precious metals [5][10]. - Exchanges like CME and SHFE have raised margin requirements, contributing to the market's downward pressure [5][7]. Group 2: Speculative Positioning - Prior to the crash, silver was one of the most crowded long positions globally, with extreme speculative positioning indicated by a 14-day RSI for gold exceeding 90, marking a historic high [7]. - The volatility index for silver reached 111, the highest on record, suggesting a precarious market environment where any reversal in sentiment could lead to severe deleveraging [7][10]. Group 3: Macro Influences - Concerns over profitability in AI tech stocks, such as those reported by Microsoft and Tesla, have led to a risk-off sentiment in the U.S. stock market, prompting some investors to liquidate precious metals to maintain liquidity [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term turmoil, institutions believe the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, supported by ongoing demand from central banks and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [11][13]. - The market is expected to experience a period of wide fluctuations, with cautious buying sentiment prevailing in the near term [13][14]. Group 5: Investment Timing - Investors are advised to be patient and wait for volatility to decrease before entering the market, with specific indicators such as implied volatility dropping below 20% being suggested as potential entry points [16]. - Historical data indicates that gold typically sees an average pullback of about 8% over approximately 18 days after reaching a peak, providing a reference for potential timing [16]. - There is a warning regarding the risk of price discrepancies between spot and futures markets, particularly for silver, which may still have room for further declines [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver funds, triggered by the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, has led to significant market panic and liquidity traps for investors [2][6][11]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 2, the Guotai Silver LOF fund resumed trading and immediately hit the daily limit down, with sell orders exceeding 8 billion yuan, while the trading volume was only around 50 million yuan by midday [3][5]. - Major gold and silver funds, including E Fund and Harvest, experienced daily declines of over 7%, with some ETFs hitting the limit down, reflecting a nearly 30% maximum drawdown over the past three trading days [5][6]. Group 2: Causes of Decline - The direct catalyst for the decline was President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish monetary policy stance, which raised fears of a shift in monetary policy [6][11]. - Following this announcement, international precious metal futures prices plummeted, with silver futures experiencing a single-day drop of over 30%, the largest since 1980, and gold futures dropping over 10% [6]. Group 3: Investment Risks - The investment frenzy in gold and silver funds, particularly the Guotai Silver LOF, revealed multiple risks, including liquidity traps and a lack of understanding of the fund's arbitrage mechanisms among investors [8][10]. - The Guotai Silver LOF saw its price premium soar to over 60%, attracting speculative investments, but the subsequent market downturn has left many investors facing significant losses due to the rapid decline in both the fund's net asset value and the premium [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest a "long-term bullish, short-term bearish" outlook for precious metals, indicating that while short-term volatility is expected, the long-term demand from global central banks will continue to support gold prices [7]. - The current market conditions highlight the importance of value investing and caution against speculative behavior, as many investors may become trapped in high-premium situations [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 华利集团 (Huali Group) is actively engaging with investors and showcasing its growth potential in the athletic footwear market, despite a cautious outlook from some brands due to complex international political and economic conditions [1][2] - 华利集团's stock price increased by 2.28% to 49.27 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 57.463 billion yuan, while its price-to-earnings ratio stands at 16.38, significantly lower than the industry average of 42.27 [1] - The company has a strong competitive position in the athletic footwear industry, with a comprehensive shoe manufacturing technology and process, and is focusing on diversifying its customer base to enhance performance resilience [2] Group 2 - Management indicated that three out of four new athletic shoe factories set to be operational in 2024 have met their initial performance targets, and cost-reduction measures are being effectively implemented [2] - Future capital expenditures are expected to remain in the range of 1.1 to 1.7 billion yuan, aligning with order conditions, while the company continues to upgrade production lines with automation and smart equipment [2] - As of January 20, 2026, 华利集团 had 14,500 shareholders, with an average holding value of 3.963 million yuan and an average shareholding of 80,500 shares [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu market, is experiencing a significant rebound, with major stocks like Moutai seeing substantial price increases, driven by strong sales performance and favorable policy changes [1] Industry Summary - On January 29, the baijiu sector saw a historic surge, with 20 stocks hitting the daily limit and the index rising by 9.79%, while Moutai increased by 8.61% [1] - The price of Moutai continues to rise, with strong sales across various product lines, indicating robust market demand [1] - The industry is expected to reach a bottom by 2026, with leading brands likely to increase their market share [1] Company Summary - The stock of Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) rose over 5%, trading at HKD 9.44 with a transaction volume of HKD 62.62 million [1] - Tianfeng Securities reports that the baijiu sector has undergone approximately five years of adjustment, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows [1] - Market sentiment towards the baijiu sector is currently pessimistic, but stock prices may recover ahead of fundamental improvements, contingent on macroeconomic demand recovery [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals and Market Trends - The precious metals sector is showing increasing speculative attributes, warranting caution [2] - The current market is experiencing a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks and from themes to quality [2] - The overall trend indicates a potential for profit margin recovery in cyclical sectors, driven by a shift in Chinese policy from expansion to quality improvement [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Opportunities - There is a focus on AI applications and energy storage as key growth areas, with expectations for recovery in lithium battery materials and storage sectors [3] - The AI industry remains a long-term focus, with significant policy support and market optimism surrounding its applications [5] - The technology theme, including AI applications and structural recovery opportunities, is highlighted as a key area for investment [7] Group 3: Spring Market Dynamics - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by ample liquidity and positive domestic fundamentals [5] - High elasticity growth themes may still perform well after a phase of profit-taking, with potential for further gains in February [4] - Sector rotation is anticipated to be a dominant theme leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on structural opportunities [9] Group 4: Commodity Recommendations - A recommendation has been made to adjust the order of investment focus to include crude oil, copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium, reflecting a shift towards industrial pricing [8] - The emphasis on physical assets is expected to strengthen, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and consumer goods benefiting from domestic recovery [8] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with expectations for continued support from domestic policies and liquidity [5][6] - The potential for structural recovery in manufacturing and resource sectors is noted, with clear paths for profit recovery [9] - The upcoming credit and inflation data in January may provide additional positive signals for the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to be strong, driven by active capital markets and robust growth in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Major Securities Firms - 21 listed securities firms have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, showing overall positive growth in net profits [2]. - CITIC Securities is projected to achieve over 30 billion yuan in net profit, with a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan, marking a 28.75% year-on-year increase [2]. - Guotai Junan expects a net profit between 27.53 billion yuan and 28.01 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111% to 115% [2]. - Other notable firms include招商证券 with a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan (up 18.43%), and申万宏源 with a projected net profit of 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion yuan (up 74.64% to 93.83%) [2]. Group 2: Performance of Small and Medium-sized Securities Firms - Smaller firms like国联民生 anticipate a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year growth of approximately 406% [3]. -天风证券 expects to turn a profit with a net profit forecast of 12.5 million to 18.5 million yuan [3]. - Other small firms such as长江证券 and中原证券 are also expected to see net profit increases exceeding 100% and 50%, respectively [3]. Group 3: Drivers of Growth - The growth in performance is attributed to the active capital market, with wealth management, proprietary trading, and asset management businesses benefiting significantly [3]. - Guotai Haitong noted a substantial increase in income from wealth management and institutional trading due to the rising activity in the domestic capital market [3]. - CITIC Securities reported rapid growth across brokerage, investment banking, and proprietary trading revenues [3]. Group 4: Investment Value of the Sector - The non-bank financial sector has seen a decline of 1.59% as of January 30, but analysts believe that the valuation of securities firms is at a historically low level, enhancing their investment appeal [4]. - The sector is entering a golden window for valuation and performance recovery, driven by favorable policies and an improving market environment [5]. - Analysts suggest focusing on three investment themes: strong comprehensive capabilities of leading firms, firms with significant performance elasticity, and those with strong international business competitiveness [5].

证券代码：601162 证券简称：天风证券（维权） 公告编号：2026-003号 天风证券股份有限公司 2025年年度业绩预盈公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 天风证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为人民 币1.25亿元到1.85亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将实现扭亏为盈。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ ● 公司2025年年度的经营业绩符合《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》第5.1.1条中"（二）净利润实现扭 亏为盈"的情形。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1、经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为人民币1.25亿元到1.85亿 元，与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈。 2、预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为人民币1.38亿元到1.98亿 元。 （三 ...

智通财经APP讯，天风证券(601162.SH)发布公告，公司预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为人民币1.25亿元到1.85亿元，与上年同期相比，将实现扭亏为盈。 ...