Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on China Railway Group (00390) with a "Buy" rating, indicating that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable in 2026 due to local government debt management and central government projects support [1] Group 1: Industry Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed this year, with pressures in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate; however, investment is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to orderly local government debt management and the implementation of central government projects [1] - Certain sub-sectors are anticipated to gain higher investment elasticity aligned with national strategies [1] Group 2: New Orders and Growth - The company has seen marginal improvement in new signed contracts, with cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2025Q1-3 amounting to 27.3 trillion, 30.3 trillion, 31.0 trillion, 27.2 trillion, and 15.8 trillion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% [2] - The backlog of contracts stands at 75.4 trillion, ensuring long-term stable growth for the company [2] Group 3: Resource Sector Performance - The resource utilization business, primarily focused on mining operations, has shown strong performance, with revenue from mineral resources for 2021-2024 and 2025Q1-3 recorded at 5.957 billion, 7.504 billion, 8.367 billion, 8.157 billion, and 6.223 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +50.97%, +25.98%, +11.49%, -2.52%, and +8.04% [3] - The gross margin for the resource utilization segment in 2025Q1-3 was 59.45%, supporting the company's operating profit [3] Group 4: Valuation and Dividend Appeal - The company has implemented a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" to improve quality and increase investor returns; as of December 23, 2025, the A-share PE (TTM) and PB valuations were 5.4X and 0.42X, while H-share valuations were 3.6X and 0.30X, indicating a significant discount for H-shares compared to A-shares [4] - Cash dividends from 2021 to 2024 and 2025H1 were 4.85 billion, 5.00 billion, 5.20 billion, 4.40 billion, and 2.02 billion, representing 17.5%, 15.8%, 15.5%, 15.8%, and 17.1% of the respective net profits; the dividend yield for H-shares is 5.1% [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for China Railway Group Limited (00390) [1][7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's valuation is expected to recover due to the optimization of financial statements and the performance of its resource segment [6][18] - It emphasizes the improvement in new contract signings and the robust backlog of orders, ensuring stable long-term growth [6][16] - The resource segment is noted for enhancing profitability and cyclicality resistance, with significant reserves of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum [6][25] - The report points out the attractive dividend yield of H-shares compared to A-shares, indicating a clear discount in valuation [6][33] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 1,263.41 billion RMB - 2024: 1,160.31 billion RMB - 2025E: 1,156.73 billion RMB - 2026E: 1,164.20 billion RMB - 2027E: 1,179.18 billion RMB - The expected growth rates are: - 2023: +9.45% - 2024: -8.16% - 2025E: -0.31% - 2026E: +0.65% - 2027E: +1.29% [5][36] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 33.48 billion RMB - 2024: 27.89 billion RMB - 2025E: 25.16 billion RMB - 2026E: 24.95 billion RMB - 2027E: 25.85 billion RMB [5][36] Order and Contract Insights - The company has signed new contracts amounting to 2.73 trillion RMB in 2021, 3.03 trillion RMB in 2022, 3.10 trillion RMB in 2023, 2.72 trillion RMB in 2024, and 1.58 trillion RMB in 2025 (Q1-Q3), with a year-on-year growth of +4.7%, +11.1%, +2.2%, -12.4%, and +3.7% respectively [6][16] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts worth 7.54 trillion RMB, ensuring stable revenue for the upcoming years [6][16] Resource Segment Performance - The resource utilization segment's revenue from 2021 to 2025 (Q1-Q3) is as follows: - 2021: 5.96 billion RMB - 2022: 7.50 billion RMB - 2023: 8.37 billion RMB - 2024: 8.16 billion RMB - 2025 (Q1-Q3): 6.22 billion RMB - The segment's gross margin is reported at 59.45% for 2025 (Q1-Q3) [6][25] Valuation and Market Comparison - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 999 billion RMB for 2026, translating to 1,102 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current market cap of 945 billion HKD [6][41] - The report compares the company's valuation with peers, noting that the average PE for comparable companies is 4.2X for 2025 and 4.0X for 2026 [6][41]

Group 1 - The construction of the new railway Haimen Port branch phase II has reached a significant milestone with the completion of the concrete pouring for pier 237, marking the project’s advancement into a new phase [1][3] - This project is a key initiative under Zhejiang Province's "thousand projects, trillion investment" program, which is crucial for regional development [3] - The railway will enhance the "public-rail-sea" multimodal transport system in the Taizhou Bay area and accelerate the growth of the port industry cluster [3] Group 2 - Haimen Port is positioned as a core node in Zhejiang's marine economy development demonstration zone, aiming to establish an energy resource storage and transportation base and a bulk commodity trading market [3] - The project manager highlighted challenges such as tidal influences and frequent strong winds, which limited effective construction time; however, resource investment and optimized construction organization have ensured progress [3] - The project is expected to facilitate deeper economic integration between the inland areas of central and western Zhejiang and the coastal economy, contributing to the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta region [3]

（编辑 丛可心 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 12月22日，中国中铁在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，当前建筑企业受市场环境影 响，合同边界条件逐步发生变化，随着项目的推进，公司符合确认长期应收款项目及金额呈增长趋势。 ...

证券日报网讯12月22日，中国中铁（601390）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司所属单位正在参 与哈国克孜勒奥尔达州欧亚通道公路升级改造项目建设。 ...

Group 1 - The company, China Railway (601390), emphasizes its role as a key player in China's infrastructure construction and its commitment to leveraging its full industry chain advantages [1] - The company's strategic planning is closely aligned with national strategic planning initiatives [1]

证券日报网讯12月22日，中国中铁（601390）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年9月30 日，公司普通股股东总数486853户。 ...

格隆汇12月22日丨中国中铁(601390.SH)在互动平台表示，公司在福建海峡在建项目有厦金大桥、东山 跨海大桥等等。 ...

格隆汇12月22日丨中国中铁(601390.SH)在互动平台表示，公司暂未在乌克兰开展基建项目。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The potential for investment growth in new infrastructure remains significant, with a focus on expanding effective investment space and enhancing private investment vitality [2][3] - Central enterprises are encouraged to identify new growth areas, particularly in renewable energy, aerospace, and low-altitude economy sectors [4] - The government is increasing support for capital in key infrastructure projects, including railways and smart construction initiatives [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Key Reports - The report highlights the importance of strategically expanding investment in new infrastructure and emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to urbanization and rural revitalization [3][4] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction, all of which are expected to benefit from high dividend yields and stable growth [8][11] - Specific sectors such as clean rooms, commercial aerospace, and controlled nuclear fusion are highlighted for their growth potential, with recommended stocks including Yaxiang Integration and Shanghai Port [6][10] Macro/Meso/Micro Data - The report indicates a projected increase in broad infrastructure funding by 7.3% in 2025, driven by enhanced fiscal policies and the issuance of special bonds [31][32] - It also notes that the construction industry is experiencing a decline in net profit margins, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in net profit reported [14][15]