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中国银河证券:节后市场如何演绎?
智通财经网· 2026-02-24 00:46
风险提示 中国银河证券主要观点如下: 春节假期重要事件回顾:(1)全球视角:贸易政策不确定性再起,美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模 关税政策违法,特朗普称将对全球商品加征15%进口关税;1月货币政策会议纪要显示,美联储内部对货 币政策前景存在明显分歧;地缘扰动持续,美伊事态紧张。(2)国内视角:春节期间出行火热,春运前20 天预计全社会跨区域人员流动量达50.8亿人次,日均2.5亿人次,创下历史同期新高;截至21日晚上,春 节档电影总票房(含预售)已突破44亿元;科技题材成为春节假期焦点,央视春晚带动人形机器人相关产品 的消费热潮;《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》。 三维度看节后市场如何布局?(1)政策:稳预期+做增量。2024年9月24日以来,A股迎来了一系列稳预 期、做增量的政策支持,旨在推动资本市场高质量发展,增强投资者信心,并为市场注入更多流动性。 春节后即将迎来"两会",市场或提前布局政策预期。"两会"预计紧扣内需主导、创新驱动、改革攻坚、 对外开放等重点领域。在政策红利与产业升级共振下,A股市场长期稳健运行基础将进一步夯实。(2)流 动性:从三个价格看A股怎么走?从汇 ...
中国银河证券:地缘风险叠加关税风险 港股节后行情怎么看?
智通财经网· 2026-02-24 00:45
智通财经APP获悉,中国银河证券发布研报称,受春节假期影响,港股仅周一、周五两个交易日开盘, 港股三大指数震荡下跌。展望未来,建议关注:中东地缘风险升温,美国关税政策面临大幅调整,投资 者避险情绪升温,贵金属、能源等板块有望震荡上行;消费板块当前估值处于相对低位,随着促消费政 策增多,消费活力逐渐提升,消费板块有望继续上涨;科技板块仍是中长期投资主线,经历近期的回调 后,估值压力下降,在AI大模型更新加快、AI应用加速推进的背景下,相关板块有望反弹回升。 中国银河证券主要观点如下: 本周港股行情表现:(1)本周(2月16日至2月20日),全球主要股指多数上涨。其中,受春节假期影响,港 股仅周一、周五两个交易日开盘,港股三大指数震荡下跌,恒生指数下跌0.58%,恒生科技指数下跌 2.78%,恒生中国企业指数下跌0.81%。(2)港股行业层面:一级行业中,本周8个行业上涨,3个行业下 跌。其中,能源、材料、工业行业指数涨幅居前,分别上涨3.65%、2.27%、1.03%;可选消费、日常消 费、通讯服务行业指数跌幅居前,分别下跌1.86%、1.50%、0.13%。从二级行业来看,本周石油石化、 有色金属、建筑、家电 ...
中国银河策略:地缘风险叠加关税风险,港股节后行情怎么看?
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-02-23 07:57
Market Performance - During the week from February 16 to February 20, the Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [1][6][30] - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors saw gains while 3 sectors experienced losses. The energy, materials, and industrial sectors had the highest increases, rising by 3.65%, 2.27%, and 1.03% respectively. Conversely, the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services sectors faced the largest declines, dropping by 1.86%, 1.50%, and 0.13% respectively [1][7][30] Market Liquidity - Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the Hong Kong stock market only operated for half a day on February 16, with a trading volume of HKD 850.56 billion. On February 20, the trading volume was HKD 1,654.61 billion, which is lower than the previous week's average daily trading volume of HKD 2,406.43 billion. The short-selling amount was HKD 237.27 billion, accounting for 14.43%, significantly higher than the previous week's average of 12.56% [2][13][15] Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 times and 1.23 times, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010. The Hang Seng Tech Index had PE and PB ratios of 21.51 times and 2.83 times, respectively, at the 18% and 49% percentiles since 2010 [3][17][22] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, which is at the 5% percentile since 2010, while the risk premium based on the 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 6.48%, at the 42% percentile since 2010 [3][19][21] Investment Outlook - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, which may lead to increased volatility in energy and precious metals sectors. The U.S. is exerting pressure on Iran, with potential military actions being considered [4][9][30] - The consumer sector is currently valued relatively low, and with increasing consumer promotion policies, there is potential for growth in this sector [4][30] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure following recent corrections, and is expected to rebound due to accelerated AI model updates and applications [4][30]
非银金融行业投资策略周报:开年政策及资金延续向好,看好板块补涨机遇-20260223
GF SECURITIES· 2026-02-23 07:54
Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by favorable policies and continued capital inflow, suggesting potential for sector rebound [1][6]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2]. Market Performance - As of February 14, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%. The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.36% [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.3% decrease week-on-week [6]. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The report indicates that listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest margins. The insurance fund utilization scale reached 38.5 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year [18]. - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally may drive better-than-expected performance for insurance companies in Q1 2026, supported by a stable long-term interest rate and an upward trend in the equity market [18]. Securities Sector - The report discusses the recent optimization measures for refinancing announced by the three major exchanges, which aim to enhance financing efficiency and support high-quality enterprises [19]. - The new refinancing rules are expected to create structural opportunities for securities firms, shifting the focus from compliance to the ability to identify and serve quality clients [20]. - The report emphasizes that the optimization of refinancing will lead to a more differentiated regulatory system, benefiting quality companies while tightening controls on weaker entities [22]. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations for several key companies in the sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) with a target price of 85.17 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) with a target price of 94.21 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - China Life (601628.SH) with a target price of 55.47 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - The report also highlights the expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance in 2025 and 2026 [7].
增资、发债、新设、担保......开年中金、广发、华泰等多家券商为出海筹措“弹药”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-14 10:35
Core Viewpoint - Chinese securities firms are increasingly expanding their overseas operations, with multiple major and mid-sized firms announcing initiatives for international capital operations at the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - On February 13, major firms including CITIC Securities, CICC, and Zhongtai Securities announced guarantees for their overseas subsidiaries [2]. - GF Securities reported a change in registered capital from 7.606 billion RMB to 7.825 billion RMB due to a completed H-share placement, with funds aimed at enhancing overseas subsidiary capital [2]. - GF Securities plans to list its zero-interest convertible bonds on the Vienna MTF [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - GF Securities is not the first to pursue overseas financing; Huatai Securities recently issued 10 billion HKD in zero-interest convertible bonds for international business support [5]. - Since 2025, over ten securities firms have made significant strides in international business, with firms like Western Securities and Dongwu Securities establishing wholly-owned subsidiaries in Hong Kong [6]. - The push into overseas markets represents a shift for Chinese securities firms from local intermediaries to global traders, driven by the need for risk hedging and capital flow [6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of mid-2025, 13 out of 16 comparable A-share listed securities firms reported over 10% year-on-year growth in overseas business revenue [7]. - Notable revenue figures include CITIC Securities at 6.912 billion RMB (up 13.57%), CICC at 4.024 billion RMB (up 75.66%), and Haitong Securities at 2.459 billion RMB (up 76.21%) [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that a significant number of quality domestic enterprises will connect with global markets through Hong Kong, creating opportunities for IPOs and cross-border capital services [9]. - The competitive edge in overseas business will increasingly focus on cross-border derivatives and FICC (Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity) operations [10]. - Chinese securities firms are expanding beyond Hong Kong to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, establishing a comprehensive international business landscape [10]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations - The future growth potential for Chinese securities firms lies in cross-border wealth management, offshore RMB-related businesses, and investment banking in emerging markets [11]. - Firms are advised to build a composite team that understands both international rules and Chinese industries, while also enhancing cross-cultural integration [12].
中国银河:股价涨跌受多重因素的影响
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-13 13:13
证券日报网讯 2月13日,中国银河(601881)在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示,股价涨跌受多重因素 的影响。公司将在持续做好经营工作、提升内生价值的同时,通过多样化方式和渠道开展投资者沟通工 作、市值管理工作,努力推动公司市场价值与内在价值相匹配。 ...
中国银河证券:节前农产品价格反馈良好 持续重点强调生猪养殖行业布局机会
智通财经网· 2026-02-13 09:10
Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual strategy opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the potential for price rebounds in 2026 despite a year-on-year decline in pig prices due to production capacity adjustments and industry losses [1] Group 1: CPI and Pork Prices - In December, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising by 1.1%, while pork prices fell by 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, with food prices increasing by 0.3%, but pork prices decreased by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Fruit and Vegetable Prices - Seasonal increases in fresh fruit prices are the main driver of the current food CPI, while vegetable price growth has slowed [2] - January vegetable prices averaged 5.59 yuan/kg, up 6.37% year-on-year, with expectations for continued price increases in Q1 due to the later timing of the Spring Festival and weather impacts [2] - January fruit prices averaged approximately 7.88 yuan/kg, up 8.87% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2020 [2] Group 3: Feed Raw Material Prices - In January, the average price of corn was 2364.6 yuan/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month and 10.55% year-on-year, with expectations for a stable price range in 2026 [3] - The average price of soybean meal was 3198.97 yuan/ton, up 1.94% month-on-month and 3.82% year-on-year, with a forecast of slight upward movement in 2026 [3] - Overall, the prices of feed raw materials are expected to remain stable, indicating no significant increase in breeding cost pressures [3] Group 4: Pig Farming Outlook - Following a price increase in late December 2025, pork prices are expected to face downward pressure after the Spring Festival due to seasonal consumption patterns [4] - The annual average price of pigs is projected to decline year-on-year, although there may be temporary rebounds influenced by seasonal disease impacts [4]
中国银河证券:移动+卫星网络并进 低空基建持续加码
智通财经网· 2026-02-13 03:59
本次意见稿中重点任务涵盖按需推进低空场景通信网络覆盖。面向300米(G类、W类空域)以下低空 航路沿线、低空应用热点区域,充分利用现有5G等移动通信网络基础设施,在满足国家无线电管理相 关规定基础上,综合采用波束优化、天线调整、新建基站等方式,按需推动低空移动通信网络覆盖,鼓 励基础电信企业与国家有关部门加强需求对接,结合低空应用发展规模和场景需求,探索通感低空专用 网络等进一步提升网络覆盖水平和业务保障能力,加强与地面网络互联互通。综合应用卫星通信、地面 移动通信等方式,为300米以上低空空域及偏远地区等提供网络覆盖。根据意见稿中的要求,该行认为 对小基站、微站及5G-A通感一体基站等的需求将会持续走高。 5G-A同感一体+卫星通信方案并进,提升低空域导航及定位准确性 智通财经APP获悉,中国银河证券发布研报称,2026年2月10日,工信部等五部门办公厅发布关于加强 信息通信业能力建设支撑低空基础设施发展的实施意见。意见明确到2027年全国低空航路地面移动通信 覆盖率不低于90%,并部署按需推进5G-A通感一体基站、卫星通信等多元技术融合。重点强化300米以 下低空网络覆盖与导航定位精度,旨在形成城市治理、 ...
中国银河(06881) - 海外监管公告
2026-02-12 12:06
本公告乃由中國銀河證券股份有限公司(「本公司」)根據香港聯合交易所有限公司 證券上市規則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列本公司於上海證券交易所網站發佈之《北京市金杜律師事務所關於中國銀 河證券股份有限公司2026年第一次臨時股東會的法律意見書》,僅供參閱。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責,對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 (在中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司) (股份代號:06881) 海外監管公告 承董事會命 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 王晟 董事長及執行董事 中國北京 2026年2月12日 於本公告日期,本公司執行董事為王晟先生(董事長)、薛軍先生(副董事長及總 裁)及屈艷萍女士;非執行董事為楊體軍先生、李慧女士、黃焱女士及宋衛剛先 生;以及獨立非執行董事為羅卓堅先生、劉力先生、麻志明先生及范小雲女士。 4. 公司本次股东会股权登记日的股东名册; 5. 出席现场会议的相关人员的到会登记记录及凭证资料; 北京市金杜律师事务所 关于中国银河证券股份有限公司 2026 ...
中国银河证券获批500亿元债券发行额度,补充营运资金
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2026-02-12 11:18
经济观察网 中国银河(601881)证券近期获监管批准多项债券发行额度,涉及未来计划可能随市场情 况调整。 公司在跨境并购等业务领域持续布局,银河海外平台在东南亚地区有多个跨境并购项目正在执行,但未 披露具体时间表。此外,公司需关注行业政策动态,如资本市场改革对券商股的影响。 公司项目推进 中国银河近期获监管批准多项债券发行额度。根据中国证监会批复,公司可向专业投资者公开发行面值 总额不超过300亿元公司债券,批复自2026年1月13日起24个月内有效。同时,公司还获批公开发行不超 过200亿元次级债券,批复自2026年2月4日起24个月内有效。这些批复允许公司在有效期内分期发行债 券,以补充营运资金或流动资金,后续具体发行时间、规模需以公司公告为准。 公司业务状况 以上内容基于公开资料整理,不构成投资建议。 ...