Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province has 20 brands recognized in the latest 2025 China Consumer Brand List, highlighting the province's commitment to high-quality consumer goods and brand development [1][3]. Group 1: Brand Recognition - The "China Consumer Brand" list includes 276 brands, consisting of 165 enterprise brands, 76 regional brands, and 35 brands for specific demographics [1][3]. - Notable brands from Jiangsu include Yanghe and Hengshun as "Historical Classics," while brands like Shenghong, Hongdou, and Saint Elephant are recognized as "Era Quality Products" [3]. Group 2: Regional Brands - Five regional brands from Jiangsu are recognized: Danyang Glasses, Changshu Outdoor Sportswear, Yixing Ceramics, Hangji Toothbrush, and Xinghua Condiments [3][13]. Group 3: Specific Demographic Brands - Brands catering to specific demographics include Goodbaby and Gong An Kang for "Maternal and Child Products," and Su Yun for "Assistive Products" [3][19]. Group 4: Compliance and Support - Companies on the list are required to operate with integrity, fulfill social responsibilities, and continuously provide high-quality products and services [3][19]. - Local governments will enhance promotion and support for these recognized brands, aiming to cultivate distinctive industries and quality consumer brands [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese liquor market, particularly in Chengdu, is showing signs of recovery as the Spring Festival approaches, with increased sales velocity for major brands like Guojiao and Wuliangye [6][8]. - The seasoning market is also experiencing improved sales, with brands like Qianhe and Haitian gaining market share, and promotional activities increasing in supermarkets [11][12]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector in 2026, with recommendations for key stocks including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Chengdu Liquor Market Tracking - Sales velocity for Wuliangye and Guojiao has accelerated as the Spring Festival approaches, with Wuliangye's current batch price at 790 CNY per bottle and Guojiao at 850 CNY per bottle [7][9]. - Feedback from distributors indicates that inventory levels are healthy, with a focus on maintaining good stock levels to avoid excess [8][9]. Chengdu Seasoning Market Tracking - Soy sauce sales have improved year-on-year, with Qianhe and Haitian leading in market share, and promotional activities in supermarkets have increased significantly [11][12]. - The overall health of inventory levels in the seasoning market is noted, with major brands maintaining shorter inventory ages, indicating strong sales performance [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, anticipating a new growth cycle starting in 2026 [2][4]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies like Anjuke Foods and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as having potential for outperforming the market due to new products and channels [2][4].

| | 证券简称 令世缘 | 证券代码 603369 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 29.15 1457.5 | 50 | 华泰证券股份有限 公司准安淮海东路 | 华泰证券股份互限 公司准安器采互目 | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2026-02-13 | | | | | | | | 2月13日，今世缘大宗交易成交50万股，成交额1457.5万元，占当日总成交额的9.26%，成交价29.15元，较市场收盘价32.39元折价10%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a shift in consumer preferences, with a notable increase in demand for products priced around 300 yuan, contrasting with previous years where high-end products priced at 1,000 yuan were more popular. This indicates a transition from scale expansion to competition within existing market shares as the industry adapts to changing consumer behavior [1][2][7]. Market Trends - Consumers are increasingly opting for mid-range liquor products, with many shifting from high-end options to those around 300 yuan due to better cost-performance ratios [2][3]. - The sales of products priced at 300 yuan have become the main focus in retail markets, while products priced above 800 yuan have also seen slight growth during the festive season [2][3]. - The overall market is witnessing a bifurcation, with both low-end (under 100 yuan) and high-end (over 800 yuan) segments gaining market share, while mid-range products face pressure [3][7]. Marketing Strategies - Major liquor companies are implementing various promotional activities to stimulate market activity, including gift card promotions and cash rewards for consumers [4][5]. - The focus has shifted from merely increasing cash flow to enhancing actual sales and reducing inventory through innovative marketing strategies [5][6]. Consumer Behavior - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost liquor sales, with expectations of increased consumer gatherings and spending due to an extended holiday period [6][7]. - There is a notable trend of consumers prioritizing value for money, leading to a preference for products that meet both family and business gathering needs [2][6]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, moving towards a dual competition model involving both channel-owned and manufacturer-owned products, which is expected to diversify the competitive landscape [7][8]. - The integration of new technologies and innovative retail channels is becoming crucial for liquor companies to adapt to evolving consumer demands and enhance sales effectiveness [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, specifically Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu, while suggesting an increase in holdings for Yingjia Gongjiu [8][28]. Core Insights - The overall sales decline in the industry before the Spring Festival aligns with expectations, with Moutai showing leading performance. The industry is experiencing a double-digit sales decline, but demand is gradually recovering as the Spring Festival approaches. The pressure on channels is easing, and confidence in the industry is expected to improve [1][12]. - Moutai's sales volume and price have exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in demand from traditional channels. The report anticipates a net increase of over 2,000 tons in January [1][12]. - The report highlights a clear differentiation among brands, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu outperforming the industry, while other brands are experiencing varying degrees of decline. The next high-end price segment is under significant pressure [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Sales Feedback - The report summarizes feedback from various regions, indicating that the overall sales decline is in line with expectations. Moutai's performance is notably strong, with double-digit growth in sales volume. Other brands, such as Wuliangye, show regional sales differentiation, particularly in areas like Sichuan, where sales have accelerated due to previous inventory control measures [1][12][15]. 2. Core Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are expected to continue growing, with a current average delivery progress exceeding 30%. The report notes that Moutai's inventory is low, and the market remains in a supply-demand imbalance, supporting price stability [24][28]. - Wuliangye's sales are stable, with delivery progress around 35-40%. The report indicates that the brand's performance is slightly better than last year, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Anhui [24][28]. - Luzhou Laojiao is experiencing slower sales, with delivery progress below 20%. The brand's high-end products are facing a decline in demand, while lower-end products still show some demand [25][28]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's sales are performing better than the industry average, with a stable inventory situation and continued growth in certain products [25][28]. - Yingjia Gongjiu is expected to see a slight decline in sales, but certain products are performing relatively well [26][28]. 3. Industry Holdings Analysis - The report notes that institutional holdings in the liquor sector are at historical lows, with a significant decrease in the proportion of active fund holdings in the liquor sector. This trend indicates a potential for recovery as the market stabilizes [2][8].

[Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 如何看白酒板块上涨持续性？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-08 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|食品饮料 [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 食品饮料 沪深300 | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BWC944 | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 周源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040003 | fzzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | [相关研究： Table_DocReport] | 食品饮料行业:金星啤酒"中式 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with the "opening red" sales expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, while brand differentiation is evident. Positive feedback from high-end liquor is significantly boosting market confidence, and a shift in style and improved expectations may catalyze liquor stock prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales and revenue expected to decline throughout the year. However, there are signs of marginal improvement starting from Q4 2025, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to stabilize prices and enhance channel profits. Moutai's sales performance has improved, with significant user engagement and order volume [6][7] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to clear inventory [6][7] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its current cycle, with potential catalysts for stock prices including improvements in sales, price increases, and inventory reduction. Positive signals from policy changes could further enhance market sentiment [6][7]

Market Overview - On February 6, the market opened low but rebounded before closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.73% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 2,700 stocks rose while more than 2,500 stocks fell [1] Sector Performance - The chemical sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Cangzhou Dahua, Jinniu Chemical, Baichuan Co., and Baihehua hitting the daily limit [1] - The solid-state battery concept experienced fluctuations, with Kosen Technology and Dingsheng New Materials also reaching the daily limit [1] - The humanoid robot concept was active, with stocks such as Wuzhou Xinchun, Liancheng Precision, and Tianqi Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - Oil and gas stocks rebounded, with Zhuan Oil Co. reaching the daily limit [1] Declining Sectors - The consumer sector collectively declined, with the liquor and tourism hotel sectors experiencing significant drops, including Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit down [3] - The AI application sector weakened, with Zhejiang Wenlian hitting the daily limit down [3] Historical Market Trends - Historical data suggests that the market typically experiences a period of speculation before the Spring Festival, with investors who correctly anticipate trends in sectors like humanoid robots often seeing substantial gains [5] - According to Huaxi Securities, the market has been in a state of declining volume since the end of January, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors [6] - The market typically enters an adjustment phase two weeks before the Spring Festival, followed by a recovery phase in the last week before the holiday, where sectors with growth potential like electronics and pharmaceuticals lead the rebound [6]

Group 1 - The stock of Huangtai Liquor Industry has hit the daily limit down, indicating significant market distress [1] - Shede Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, and Jinhui Liquor have all seen declines exceeding 3%, reflecting a broader downturn in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Gujing Gongjiu, Jinzizijiu, Jinshiyuan, and Shui Jing Fang have also experienced declines, suggesting a widespread negative sentiment in the liquor industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates the most significant pressure on its financial statements will occur in the first quarter due to a high comparison base from the previous year, with improvements expected starting in the second quarter as the year-on-year base decreases [2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The company notes that the Spring Festival this year is delayed by 19 days compared to last year, and consumer confidence among channel and terminal merchants remains low, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - The company prepares for a potentially "coldest Spring Festival" in history, expecting overall consumption to continue the slow recovery trend observed since the fourth quarter of last year [2] - The company is actively preparing for the Spring Festival with smooth progress in channel terminal contracts and ongoing online and offline promotional activities [2] Group 2: Inventory and Sales Strategy - The company has implemented reasonable inventory control measures to maintain a balance between volume and price, aiming for overall sales during the Spring Festival to meet expectations, albeit at a lower level compared to the same period last year [2] - The company observes that the performance of the Jiangsu province's liquor market in 2025 reflects the industry's overall situation, with all price segments experiencing some pressure, but with structural differences [2] - The company expects that during the Spring Festival, the performance across various price segments may improve compared to the fourth quarter of last year due to concentrated consumption [2]