华龙证券股份有限公司彭棋近期对三棵树（603737）进行研究并发布了研究报告《2024年年报及2025年一季 报点评报告：零售份额持续提升，盈利能力持续改善》，首次覆盖三棵树给予增持评级。 三棵树 事件： 2024年4月26日，三棵树发布2024年年报及2025年一季报：2024年公司实现营业收入121.05亿元，同比下滑 2.97%；实现归属上市公司股东的净利润3.32亿元，同比增长91.27%。2025年一季度公司实现营业收入21.30 亿元，同比增长3.12%；实现归属上市公司股东的净利润1.05亿元，同比增长123.33%。 观点： 收入保持稳定，盈利能力持续提升。2024年，涂料企业仍处在战略发展机遇期，且行业加速分化，市场向头 部集中，绿色转型成硬指标，创新赛道快速扩容。经中国涂料工业协会统计，2024年，中国涂料行业总产量 3534.1万吨，较上年同期同比降低1.60%。在此背景下，公司收入保持稳定，此外，因2024年费用减少和计提 的减值准备减少，公司盈利能力大幅提升，实现归母净利3.32亿元，同比增长91.27%。2025年一季度，受益 于收入增加、毛利提升及费用减少，公司盈利能力持续大幅改 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in retail competitiveness and continues to optimize its product structure. The retail business is rapidly growing, with high profit margins and growth rates across multiple modules. The company is also expanding its engineering services into niche markets, further enhancing its competitive advantage [5][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 91.27% to 0.332 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 2.130 billion yuan, up 3.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.105 billion yuan, reflecting a 123.33% increase [5][6] - The company's revenue from different product segments in 2024 included: - Home decoration wall paint: 2.967 billion yuan, up 12.8% - Engineering wall paint: 4.084 billion yuan, down 12.7% - Base materials: 3.269 billion yuan, up 1.25% - Waterproof membranes: 1.319 billion yuan, up 4.9% [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 13.7 billion yuan and 15.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.5% and 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.752 billion yuan in 2025 and 0.949 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 126.4% and 26.3% [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company has shown resilience with a revenue of 12.105 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 2.97% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 91.27% to 0.332 billion yuan [5] - The retail business is rapidly growing, with a notable improvement in product structure and profitability, particularly in the home decoration wall paint segment [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.7 billion yuan and 15.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.752 billion yuan and 0.949 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to price declines in engineering wall paints [6] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 140 billion yuan in 2024 to 177 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a steady increase in operational capacity [12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.63 yuan in 2024 to 2.25 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue of 12.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 91%. The non-recurring net profit was approximately 150 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 234% [3][4]. - In the first quarter, the company reported a revenue of 2.1 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 110 million yuan, up 123% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was approximately -10 million yuan, indicating a substantial improvement [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 12.1 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year. The core business of wall coatings saw a 4% decline, accounting for 58% of total revenue. However, the revenue from home decoration wall paint grew by 13% [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 3%, with wall coatings generating 1.25 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year. The engineering wall coatings also saw a 9% increase in revenue [8]. Market Performance - The company’s retail revenue continued to grow positively, while the engineering business faced challenges due to price wars. The retail revenue showed double-digit growth, contrasting with a 13% decline in engineering wall coatings revenue [8]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was approximately 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, but showed a quarterly improvement to 31.0% in Q1 2025, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio also improved, with a decrease in the period expense ratio to 25.7% for 2024 [8]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company maintained a strong operating cash flow, with a cash collection ratio of 1.11, 1.18, and 1.15 over the past three years. The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was approximately 1 billion yuan, with Q1 2025 achieving a positive cash flow of 110 million yuan, marking the first positive cash flow in Q1 in history [8]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a core player in the stock market, adapting to the new era of renovation. The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 1 billion yuan and 1.31 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 26 and 20 times [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in cash flow and profitability, with a notable increase in net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. The retail transformation is yielding positive results, and the company is expected to benefit from a more stable real estate market and improved channel management [4][5] - Revenue for 2024 was 12,105 million yuan, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 91.27% to 332 million yuan. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 788 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 137.2% [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 12,105 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million yuan, up 91.3% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 29.60%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 31.05%, an increase of 2.67 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company expects to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.49 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.0 times based on the current stock price [4][7] Product Performance - The company reported revenue from various product segments in 2024: home decoration wall paint (29.67 billion yuan, +12.75% YoY), engineering wall paint (40.84 billion yuan, -12.65% YoY), and waterproof membranes (13.19 billion yuan, +4.95% YoY). The average selling price for home decoration wall paint and waterproof membranes showed significant improvement [5][6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 788 million yuan in 2025, 899 million yuan in 2026, and 1,064 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][7] - The anticipated improvement in the real estate sector and ongoing optimization of distribution channels are expected to support the company's long-term growth potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 60.14 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.105 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 331.94 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 91.27% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company's "immediate housing" business model is entering a rapid replication phase, and the retail channel is becoming increasingly robust, indicating potential for future growth [1][4]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 29.6%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense price competition in the paint industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 29.59 billion RMB, down 3.45% year-on-year and 12.58% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 78.39 million RMB [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 21.3 billion RMB, up 3.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million RMB, up 123.33% year-on-year [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from home decoration paint, engineering paint, and other materials in 2024 was 29.7 billion RMB, 40.8 billion RMB, and 32.7 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.75%, -12.65%, and 1.25% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the revenue from these segments showed a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, 9.4%, and 4.2% respectively, while the waterproof and construction segments experienced declines of 21.3% and 40.5% [2]. Cost Management - The company maintained a strict control over expenses, with a total expense ratio of 25.71% in 2024, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company recorded credit and asset impairment losses of 349 million RMB in 2024, down 31.7% year-on-year, indicating effective management of receivables [3]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 651.4 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.7% over the next three years [4]. - The target price of 60.14 RMB reflects a PEG ratio of 1.0x for 2025, up from a previous estimate of 0.8x, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for SanKeTree Company Overview - **Company**: SanKeTree - **Industry**: Coatings and Paints Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Performance**: - Net profit reached 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 374 million yuan [2][3] - Gross margin improved to 31.05%, a 2.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow turned positive for the first time in Q1, reaching 110 million yuan, an increase of 374 million yuan year-on-year [3][17] - Revenue for Q1 was 2.13 billion yuan, a 3.12% year-on-year increase, marking a record high for Q1 since the company went public [3] Business Segments Performance - **Retail Business**: - Retail business accounted for 49% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 11% [2][4] - If delayed order confirmations are considered, retail growth could reach 20% [4] - **Engineering Business**: - Engineering business grew by 0.13% year-on-year, with significant growth in small B business and municipal public construction nearing 10% [2][5] Product Performance - **Home Decoration Wall Paint**: - Grew by 8% year-on-year, but impacted by a 41% decline in waterproof coatings; excluding this, growth would be 11% [2][6] - **Engineering Wall Paint**: - Increased by 9%, accounting for 29% of total business [6] - **Waterproof Membranes**: - Revenue decreased by 21% due to price competition and industry downturn [2][6] Strategic Outlook - **2025 Full Year Forecast**: - Expected double-digit revenue growth, gross margin improvement of 2-3 percentage points, and a reduction in expense ratio by 2 percentage points [2][7] - Debt ratio targeted to decrease to around 73% [2][7] - **Pricing Strategy**: - Plans to increase prices by approximately 3% due to competitors halting price wars [2][8] - Retail prices are not expected to decline further, with positive impacts anticipated from competitors' price increases [10] Market Position and Growth Plans - **Market Share Goals**: - Aiming to increase retail market share to 15% within five years, up from 7% [4][18] - Focus on growth rather than dividends in the near term, with potential for significant dividends starting in 2027 [17][18] - **Industrial Coatings**: - Industrial coatings revenue reached approximately 27 million yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of over 90% [19] - Focus on automotive coatings and industrial anti-corrosion paints, with plans to enter the supply chain of major automotive brands [19] Industry Trends - **Coatings Industry Outlook**: - The coatings sector is expected to grow steadily, particularly in the renovation market for existing properties [22] - SanKeTree aims to surpass competitors and establish itself as a leading domestic brand in the coatings industry [22] Additional Insights - **Operational Efficiency**: - Plans to optimize workforce by reducing over 800 positions, targeting a total of around 8,000 employees by year-end [4][16] - **Cash Flow Improvement**: - Enhanced cash flow attributed to increased retail proportion and strong position in the supply chain [17] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, business segment growth, strategic outlook, and industry trends relevant to SanKeTree.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The competitive advantages in the paint industry are gradually becoming evident, and the company is expected to emerge as a leader in the existing housing market [8] - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit due to effective cost control and a reduction in impairment provisions [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from domestic demand policies and has a unique valuation potential within the building materials sector [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12,105 million RMB, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million RMB, an increase of 91.27% [8] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 was 21.30 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.12%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.05 billion RMB, up 123.33% [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense market competition [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 802 million RMB, 1,001 million RMB, and 1,302 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.90, and 2.47 RMB [8] - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in net profit growth rates of 141.60% in 2025 and 30.07% in 2027 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading national paint enterprise, leveraging its unique competitive advantages and efficient channel strategy to navigate market volatility [8] - The company is anticipated to be among the first in the industry to experience a recovery in performance, benefiting from the cyclical nature of the market [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 53.90 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous revenue growth in home decoration paint for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit due to reduced expenses and impairment losses [2][3]. - The decline in revenue growth is primarily attributed to the decrease in engineering wall paint sales, while home decoration wall paint revenue has increased due to expanded channels and promotional efforts [3][10]. - The company is transitioning towards high-end retail and enhancing its small B channel network, which is expected to drive growth in both retail and engineering segments [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.105 billion CNY (down 2.97% YoY) and a net profit of 332 million CNY (up 91.27% YoY) [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 2.130 billion CNY (up 3.12% YoY) with a net profit of 105 million CNY (up 123.33% YoY) [2][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.20 CNY per 10 shares and increase capital stock by 4 shares for every 10 shares held [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Home decoration wall paint revenue reached 2.967 billion CNY (up 12.75% YoY), while engineering wall paint revenue was 4.084 billion CNY (down 12.65% YoY) [3]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 29.60%, with a Q4 gross margin of 32.50% [4][8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 13.369 billion CNY, 14.674 billion CNY, and 16.016 billion CNY, with net profits expected to be 809 million CNY, 959 million CNY, and 1.125 billion CNY respectively [11][14]. - The company is expected to maintain a dynamic PE of 31.7x, 26.7x, and 22.8x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 12.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, an increase of 91.3% [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.3%. The non-recurring net profit was -15 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 63 million yuan year-on-year [1] - The 2024 annual report reclassified categories such as wood coatings and adhesives into basic materials, affecting revenue growth rates for the year and Q1 2025 [1] Operational Analysis - The retail new business model showed strong growth, with home decoration and engineering wall paint revenues of 2.97 billion yuan and 4.08 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12.8% and a decrease of 12.7%, respectively. In Q1 2025, revenues were 650 million yuan and 590 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 8.0% and 9.4% [2] - The gross margin stabilized and improved, with a gross margin of 32.5% in Q4 2024, an increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, and 31.05% in Q1 2025, an increase of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost Management - The expense ratio decreased to 25.7% in 2024, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 0.8 percentage points. In Q1 2025, the expense ratio was 31.4%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company reduced its workforce to 8,996 employees by the end of 2024, a decrease of 836 employees year-on-year, including a reduction of 516 sales personnel [3] Cash Flow and Growth Strategy - The company achieved positive cash flow for the first time in Q1, with operating cash flow of 1.1 billion yuan, compared to -260 million yuan in the same period last year. The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.01 billion yuan [4] - The shift from large B to C and small B channels has led to stable cash flow performance, highlighting the retail focus and true "consumption" attributes [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability in its new growth phase, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 900 million yuan and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28.5 and 20.5 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]