603799.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 33.48 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 17.8 (3.7) 14.6 15.2 相对上证综指 17.1 (1.8) 13.5 9.7 发行股数 (百万) 1,701.55 流通股 (百万) 1,686.35 (24%) (11%) 1% 14% 27% 40% Apr-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 华友钴业 上证综指 有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 30 日 | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 56,967.82 | | --- | --- | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 1,652.57 | | 主要股东 | | | 华友控股集团有限公司 | 17.71% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 29 日收市价为标准 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 有色金属 ...

原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 33.48 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 17.8 (3.7) 14.6 15.2 相对上证综指 17.1 (1.8) 13.5 9.7 发行股数 (百万) 1,701.55 流通股 (百万) 1,686.35 (24%) (11%) 1% 14% 27% 40% Apr-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 华友钴业 上证综指 | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 56,967.82 | | --- | --- | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 1,652.57 | | 主要股东 | | | 华友控股集团有限公司 | 17.71% | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 29 日收市价为标准 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 30 日 603799.SH 增持 有色金属 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong profitability resilience despite a decline in metal prices, with cobalt, nickel, and lithium margins reaching historical lows. The current price levels provide a foundation for potential increases, which could significantly boost the company's performance [7][9]. - The company has established a comprehensive business structure with five major sectors: new energy, new materials, Indonesian nickel, African resources, and recycling [13][16]. - The report highlights the cyclical nature of metal prices, indicating that cobalt prices are at a long-term historical low, with potential for substantial increases due to demand growth and supply constraints [33][51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 33.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 56.76 billion yuan [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2023 is 66.30 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline to 60.95 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 70.44 billion yuan in 2025. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 3.35 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.07 billion yuan in 2025 [6][8]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.19 for 2025, which is below the industry average, indicating potential undervaluation [8]. Investment Logic - The company has maintained stable revenue and profitability despite fluctuations in metal prices, with nickel and lithium segments showing growth while cobalt has declined. The overall business structure is resilient, with significant upside potential if metal prices recover [20][29]. - The report emphasizes that the current low prices of cobalt, nickel, and lithium create a favorable environment for future price increases, which could enhance the company's earnings significantly [7][9]. Cobalt Market Insights - Cobalt prices are currently at a long-term low, with expectations for a significant rebound driven by demand growth and supply constraints, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo [33][51]. - The report notes that the recent export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo could further tighten supply, enhancing the potential for price increases [36]. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel supply is dominated by Indonesia, which is expected to account for 60% of global production in 2024. The report indicates that while supply is increasing, rising costs and the closure of high-cost mines may stabilize prices [53][60]. Lithium Market Insights - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, with prices at historical lows. The report forecasts that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize around 80,000 yuan per ton in 2025, with potential for increases as demand recovers [67][72].

证券代码：603799 证券简称：华友钴业 二○二四年年度股东大会 会 议 资 料 二○二五年五月九日 1 | | | | 2024 年年度股东大会会议议程 | 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 年年度股东大会会议须知 | 4 | | | 议案一：2024 年度董事会工作报告 | 6 | | | 议案二：2024 年度监事会工作报告 | 26 | | | 议案三：关于 2024 年年度报告全文及摘要的议案 | | 30 | | 议案四：关于 2024 年度财务决算报告的议案 | | 31 | | 议案五：关于 2024 年度关联交易情况审查的议案 | | 41 | | 议案六：关于 2025 年度日常关联交易预计的议案 | | 42 | | 议案七：关于 2024 年度利润分配方案的议案 | | 43 | | 议案八：关于董事 2024 年度薪酬考核情况与 | 2025 年度薪酬方案的议案 | 44 | | 议案九：关于监事 2024 年度薪酬考核情况与 | 2025 年度薪酬方案的议案 | 45 | | 议案十：关于公司续聘 2025 年度审计机构的议案 | | 46 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Securities New Energy Index has experienced a decline, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the renewable energy sector [1][2] - The China Securities New Energy Index has decreased by 9.93% in the past month, 6.59% in the past three months, and 11.65% year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of companies involved in renewable energy production, application, storage, and related equipment, with a base date of December 31, 2011, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the index include CATL (10.68%), LONGi Green Energy (5.55%), Sungrow Power (5.48%), China Nuclear Power (4.73%), and others [1] - The market share of the index's holdings is distributed as follows: Shenzhen Stock Exchange 57.61%, Shanghai Stock Exchange 41.98%, and Beijing Stock Exchange 0.41% [1] - From an industry perspective, the index's sample holdings are composed of 74.50% in industrials, 14.26% in utilities, 10.76% in materials, and 0.48% in information technology [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has exceeded performance expectations, attracting significant attention from institutions and investors, with a strong focus on technological innovation and resource development as key drivers for future growth [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a net profit of 4.155 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, and a net profit of 1.252 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 140% [2]. - The chairman emphasized the goal of "recreating a new company" as a fundamental objective for future development, leveraging integrated industry advantages, international operations, and technological strengths [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The chairman highlighted that technological innovation is the top priority, with a focus on enhancing management and resource control capabilities to support product and cost leadership [2]. - The company is committed to increasing research and development investments in high-nickel ternary materials, aiming to lead the industry through technological breakthroughs [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Strategy - The chairman projected that the ternary materials market will recover its rightful position over the next three years, driven by performance advantages in high-end passenger vehicles and emerging applications in AI and solid-state batteries [4]. - The company plans to maintain its focus on lithium battery materials, supported by nickel and cobalt resource assurance, while expanding its market reach and enhancing capabilities [3]. Group 4: International Expansion - The company has established a global operational framework, actively developing resource projects in Indonesia, Congo, and Zimbabwe, while also building advanced manufacturing bases in Hungary and other locations [5][6]. - Two major nickel resource projects in Indonesia are nearing production, with a combined annual capacity of 18,000 tons of nickel and 5,000 tons of cobalt expected to be operational by 2026 and 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for Huayou Cobalt with a revised target price of Rmb27.00, indicating a downside of 20.2% from the current price of Rmb33.82 [1][2]. Core Insights - Huayou Cobalt reported a net profit of Rmb4.2 billion for 2024, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by higher profits from nickel and lithium [1][20]. - The company is facing challenges in the ternary battery materials market, with market share declining to below 20% in Q1 2025 from 27% in 2024 and 32% in 2023, leading to lower shipments and margins [2][31]. - The earnings outlook remains cautious due to depressed prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt, which are expected to cap earnings improvements [2][31]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at Rmb60.5 billion, down 8% from 2023, with a gross profit of Rmb10.1 billion, up 12% year-over-year [28]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is reported at Rmb2.50, a 22% increase from the previous year [28]. - The company declared a cash dividend of Rmb0.50 per share, with a payout ratio of 23%, significantly lower than the 69% in 2023 [1][28]. Earnings Estimates - Recurring earnings estimates for 2025-2026 have been revised upward by 44-55% due to higher refined nickel sales volume and lower costs for lithium [2][31]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb1.89, down from the previous estimate of Rmb1.79, reflecting ongoing market challenges [2][28]. Market Dynamics - The ternary battery materials market is expected to continue facing pressure, with increased competition and declining unit profits anticipated [31]. - The report highlights that Huayou's earnings are likely to remain depressed in 2025 due to weak prices for nickel, cobalt, and lithium [31]. Valuation Analysis - A bottom-of-the-cycle valuation analysis suggests a theoretical valuation range of Rmb7.8 to Rmb14.1 per share for Huayou, compared to the current share price of Rmb33.8 [2][31]. - The report's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology indicates a valuation of Rmb22.7 per share for the battery material business [26][32].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Huayou Cobalt, Chen Xuehua, responded to rumors regarding the replacement of LG by Huayou in the electric vehicle battery project in Indonesia, emphasizing Huayou's ongoing partnership with LG and the project's significance [1] Group 1: Company Involvement - Huayou Cobalt has been a member of the LG consortium for five years, participating in the electric vehicle battery project [1] - The project encompasses the entire industry chain from mining to precursor and battery production, highlighting Huayou's comprehensive industry advantages [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The Indonesian government is looking for Huayou to form new partnerships to advance the project, indicating potential collaborative opportunities [1] - Huayou is open to promoting the project but emphasizes that it will not be solely driven by Huayou; industry chain partners will be involved [1]

Summary of Huayou Cobalt's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huayou Cobalt - **Industry**: Cobalt and Lithium Battery Materials Key Financial Performance - **2024 Revenue**: Exceeded 60.9 billion CNY, marking a historical best performance, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 12.43 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.57 times [2][3] - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: 17.842 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.24%, with a net profit of 1.252 billion CNY, up 139.68% [2][3] Resource and Production Developments - **Nickel Resource Rights**: Total nickel resource rights reached 5.5 million metal tons through investments in projects like Indonesia's WBN SCM [2][8] - **Lithium Resource**: Zimbabwe's Arcadia lithium mine reserves increased to 2.5 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [2][8] - **Production Capacity**: Upstream smelting capacity is gradually being released to ensure competitive raw material supply for downstream operations [2][8] Strategic Partnerships and Market Position - **Collaborations**: Deep partnerships with international clients such as LG Energy, Samsung, and Panasonic, and collaboration with Volkswagen Powerco to strengthen market position [2][8] - **Market Expansion**: Ongoing overseas projects to facilitate entry into European and American markets [2][8] Shareholder Engagement and Incentives - **Incentive Plan**: Implementation of the fourth phase of the restricted stock incentive plan, granting 9.3493 million shares to 1,161 recipients, alongside a total cash dividend of 2.514 billion CNY [2][15] Product Performance - **Product Sales**: - Nickel product sales exceeded 180,000 tons, a 46% year-on-year increase - Cobalt product sales around 40,000 tons, up 33% - Lithium carbonate sales increased by 378% [5] Technological Innovations - **R&D Investments**: Over 1.3 billion CNY invested in R&D, with significant breakthroughs in technology leading to national awards [6] - **New Product Development**: Introduction of 34 new ternary precursor products and advancements in high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide technology [7] Future Outlook and Strategic Direction - **Market Trends**: Anticipation of stable nickel prices between 15,500 to 17,000 USD over the next 3-5 years, with ongoing projects like the 120,000-ton MHP project in Indonesia expected to commence production by the end of 2026 [2][17] - **Sustainability Focus**: Commitment to clean energy and green low-carbon transformation, with a focus on lithium battery materials and resource security [9] Regulatory and Market Challenges - **Congo's Cobalt Export Ban**: Short-term price increase in cobalt due to export bans, with potential future quota policies to stabilize supply and demand [4][19] - **Indonesian Policy Changes**: New regulations affecting operational costs and profit margins, with the company adapting strategies to ensure sustainable development [22] ESG Initiatives - **Carbon Reduction**: Achieved a carbon reduction of approximately 1.18 million tons, with a high ESG rating above the global industry average [14] Conclusion - **Long-term Vision**: Huayou Cobalt aims to become a world-class enterprise by leveraging integrated industry advantages, enhancing international competitiveness, and focusing on high-quality development [9][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 60.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.15 billion yuan, an increase of 23.99% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 17.84 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.37% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 60.95 billion yuan, down 8.08% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.15 billion yuan, up 23.99% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.80 billion yuan, an increase of 22.71% year-on-year [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 17.84 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.37%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.23 billion yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 62.78% [2][4]. Production Capacity and Operational Efficiency - The company’s production capacity increased significantly in 2024, primarily due to the ramp-up of the Huafei project, which contributed to a notable increase in nickel product output. The shipment of nickel intermediate products reached nearly 230,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 50%, while nickel product sales were 184,300 tons, up 45.78% year-on-year [5]. - The company optimized its operations through reasonable hedging strategies, which contributed to performance realization. By the end of 2024, the company’s derivative financial assets were 1.001 billion yuan, down from 1.395 billion yuan at the end of 2023 [5]. Investment Gains - The company reported significant growth in investment income, achieving 1.362 billion yuan in 2024, with contributions from joint ventures and associates amounting to 743 million yuan [5]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders saw a slight decline quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to high nickel average prices realized in Q3. However, non-recurring gains and investment income in Q4 showed substantial growth, largely attributed to profit recognition from hedging [5]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cobalt prices and the potential for asset impairment reversals due to recent market conditions. The domestic cobalt product prices have shown signs of recovery following export bans in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [9]. - The company’s strong operational capabilities and the current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for bottom-fishing investments [9].