（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 1月27日，泸州老窖在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司各大单品均有38度产品；果 酒有《泸州老窖•国仙中式果酿酒风之清》《泸州老窖•国仙中式果酿酒风之清》等产品。公司根据年轻 群体的悦己型消费与情绪价值需求特点，以产品创新为核心、以场景适配为载体、以情感共鸣为纽带， 系统性推进年轻化布局。一是做好产品创新准备。持续深耕38°低度产品线，通过工艺优化强化酒体柔 和、顺滑的饮用特质，适配年轻人对低度利口、微醺体验的核心需求；同时，研究开发精酿啤酒、中式 果酿酒等创新酒品以及生物发酵面膜、香水等酒类衍生品，贴合年轻群体消费需求。二是做好新消费场 景打造。推广冰饮、调饮等全新品饮方式，打造新的消费场景，比如尝试做消费门店，结合餐酒消费集 中展示公司产品。推动产品融入年轻人和女性消费群体日常作息与社交场景，成为生活方式的有机组成 部分。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of industry cycles over individual company performance in the Chinese liquor market, particularly during periods of economic downturns, where even strong companies face significant declines due to systemic pressures [7][11][35]. Group 1: Industry Performance Overview - The period from 2013 to 2021 was characterized as a "golden era" for the liquor industry, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai increasing by 1297%, Shanxi Fenjiu by 1090%, and Wuliangye by 860% [13][15]. - In contrast, the period from 2022 to 2026 is described as a "deep adjustment period," where major brands have seen significant declines, with Luzhou Laojiao down 49%, Wuliangye down 46%, and Kweichow Moutai down 26% [20][22]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on industry cycles when selecting stocks, prioritizing companies with strong demand resilience during downturns, such as Kweichow Moutai, or those with low valuations, like Gujing Gongjiu B [29][30]. - The article warns against relying on company-specific factors (alpha) to counteract industry-wide trends (beta), as strong financials or management integrity may not protect against systemic downturns [31][32]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - The article highlights that past star stocks, such as Yanghe and Shui Jing Fang, which performed well during the boom, have suffered even greater declines in the current downturn, illustrating that past performance does not guarantee future resilience [33][34]. - The cyclical nature of the industry is underscored, with the assertion that understanding the primary conflict between industry cycles and individual company performance is crucial for avoiding investment pitfalls [35].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.56% on January 27, with *ST Rock leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% [1]. Group 1: Liquor Sector Performance - The closing prices and performance of key liquor stocks showed mixed results, with Kweichow Moutai slightly up by 0.08% at 1343.01, while several others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao saw declines of 1.29% and 0.06% respectively [1]. - The total trading volume for Kweichow Moutai was 48,400 hands, with a transaction value of 6.515 billion yuan, while Wuliangye had a trading volume of 225,300 hands and a transaction value of 2.284 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 386 million yuan from institutional investors and 289 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 675 million yuan [2]. - Specific stocks like Kweichow Moutai experienced a net inflow of 39.8 million yuan from institutional investors, while *ST Rock had a net outflow of 68,400 yuan [3]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The Food and Beverage ETF (product code: 515170) tracked the sub-index of the food and beverage industry, showing a decline of 2.01% over the past five days, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.31 times [5]. - The Consumer ETF (product code: 510630) tracked the main consumer industry index, with a decline of 1.52% over the past five days and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.22 times [6].

格隆汇1月27日丨泸州老窖(000568.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司境外收入占比较小，根据公司 《2024年年报》显示，公司2024年境外营收约1.86亿元，占比0.60%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, with Yanghe Co. seeing significant declines in stock prices and a bleak profit forecast for 2025, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe Co. has forecasted a net profit decline of 62.18%-68.30% for 2025, estimating a loss of 1.451 billion to 1.859 billion yuan in Q4 2025 [1]. - The company has also retracted its previous commitment to a minimum 7 billion yuan dividend [1]. - Other major liquor companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu have also seen stock price declines, while Kweichow Moutai has shown slight gains [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The consumption ETF has seen a near 2% drop, with a transaction volume of 400 million yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. - The liquor sector is in a phase of inventory reduction and price stabilization, with companies adjusting their strategies in response to external pressures [3][6]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - New policies aimed at boosting consumer spending are expected to be introduced, including measures to expand inbound consumption and promote the replacement of durable goods [1]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations that the worst period for liquor sales is over, aided by easing consumption restrictions [6]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The liquor sector is currently characterized by low expectations, low valuations, and low public fund holdings, presenting a potential buying opportunity [7]. - High dividend yields from leading liquor companies are expected to attract investors, as they commit to returning at least 100% of their net profits as dividends [7]. - Historical data suggests that high-end liquor stocks like Moutai and Wuliangye may lead the recovery in the sector, similar to past cycles [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a mixed trend in retail prices for its top ten products, with an overall slight decline in total price [1][4] - The market shows signs of stabilization, with some products increasing in price while others decrease [1][4] Price Movements - The total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 8886 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day [1] - Four products saw price increases, while five experienced declines, with one remaining stable [1] - The leading price increase was for Qinghua Lang, which rose by 14 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of price growth [1][3] - Other notable increases include Gujing Gonggu 20 and Jingpin Moutai, which rose by 7 yuan and 4 yuan per bottle, respectively [1][2] - On the decline side, Wuliangye dropped by 9 yuan, and Guojiao 1573 fell by 8 yuan per bottle [1][2] Market Context - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, aiming to provide an objective and traceable overview of the liquor market prices [4] - The introduction of new sales channels for Moutai products has begun to influence market prices, particularly for the Flying Moutai and Premium Moutai [4] - The liquor sector is currently navigating a challenging period, with institutional holdings at historical lows, yet there are signs of potential recovery as Moutai's sales exceed expectations [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage sector is "Buy" for key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [44]. Core Insights - The report indicates a continued decline in the holdings of the food and beverage sector within mutual funds, with the top 20 holdings' market value as a percentage of total fund equity investments decreasing to 16.31% in Q4 2025, down 0.47 percentage points from Q3 2025 [5][21]. - Kweichow Moutai's market value as a percentage of total fund equity investments is 1.31%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also saw declines [9][10]. - The food and beverage sector's weight in the total A-share market capitalization has decreased to 4.04%, down 0.66 percentage points [25]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q4 2025, the number of funds holding Kweichow Moutai remained stable at 1,048, while Wuliangye saw a decrease of 109 funds to 175, and Luzhou Laojiao's holdings dropped by 18 to 128 [21]. - The concentration of holdings in the food and beverage sector is low, with only one company (Kweichow Moutai) in the top 20 holdings [7][8]. Sector Allocation - The food and beverage sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 6.10% of total fund equity investments, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points from the previous quarter [25]. - The white liquor sector's heavy stock holdings accounted for 5.13%, also down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a position close to levels seen in Q1 2010 [25][39]. Individual Stock Performance - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are currently below their average allocation levels since 2009, indicating potential undervaluation [9][10]. - The report notes that the allocation coefficient for the white liquor sector is 1.92, which is below the historical average of 2.11, suggesting a potential for recovery [25][39]. Northbound Capital Changes - In Q4 2025, the northbound capital holdings for major food and beverage stocks showed a mixed trend, with Shuanghui Development seeing an increase of 0.13 percentage points, while Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye experienced declines of 0.48 and 0.58 percentage points, respectively [44][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector continues to see a decline in holdings, with a shift towards mass-market products. The proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 4.04% in Q4 2025, down from 4.18% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.14 percentage point decline [9][15] - The report highlights a continued reduction in allocations to alcoholic beverages, while holdings in mass-market products have shown signs of recovery. The proportion of holdings in white liquor decreased by 0.29 percentage points to 2.92% in Q4 2025 [14][17] - Major consumer funds have reduced their allocations to alcoholic beverages, with a notable decrease of 2.22 percentage points in white liquor holdings, while overall food and beverage allocations have increased [17][21] Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Holdings Continue to Decline, Structure Shifts Towards Mass-Market Products - As of Q4 2025, the total scale of active equity fund heavy holdings is approximately 19.4 trillion yuan, with food and beverage holdings at 78.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.01% decline [9][10] - The decline in alcoholic beverage holdings is evident, with white liquor allocations decreasing to 2.92% and beer and pre-mixed drinks also seeing slight reductions [14][15] 2. Holdings Become More Diversified, Capturing Marginal Recovery Themes - The number of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector has become more diversified, with only Kweichow Moutai remaining in the top 20 heavy holdings [24] - The report notes that the top five stocks with the largest increase in heavy holdings include Baba Foods, Yingjia Gongjiu, Youran Dairy, Ximai Foods, and Modern Animal Husbandry [28][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five key directions for investment: focusing on functional health foods, improving supply chains and product/channel resonance in leading snack companies, expanding quality retail formats, investing in long-lifecycle beverage leaders, and tracking sectors with potential recovery such as dairy and large-scale dining [10][29]

Group 1: Brand Collaborations and Marketing Strategies - Tuo Pai Jiu has announced celebrity endorsements with Liu Xiaoqing and Yang Yuguang, aiming to enhance brand visibility through live streaming on Douyin [1] - The trend of celebrity endorsements in the liquor industry is increasing, with brands like Shui Jing Fang and Gu Xiao Jiu also engaging well-known figures to boost sales and brand image [3][5] - The shift in marketing strategy reflects a move towards more consumer-friendly approaches, with brands seeking to connect with younger audiences through relatable celebrities [6][8] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The white liquor production in China has seen a significant decline, with a 19% drop in December 2025 compared to the previous year, marking the ninth consecutive year of decline [9][11] - The total production for 2025 was reported at 354.9 million liters, a cumulative decrease of 12.1% [9][11] - The changing landscape of the liquor market is evident, with a notable increase in the import of white spirits, particularly vodka and tequila, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [13] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Yanghe Co. has projected a significant decline in profits for 2025, estimating earnings between 2.116 billion to 2.524 billion yuan, a decrease of 62% to 68% year-on-year [28] - The company attributes this downturn to intensified competition and reduced market demand, particularly affecting mid-range and high-end products [28] - Yanghe has also announced a new cash dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 100% of the net profit to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 [29]

Group 1 - The Low Volatility Dividend Index (H30269.CSI) selects 50 securities with good liquidity, continuous dividends, moderate payout ratios, positive growth in dividends per share, high dividend yields, and low volatility, with a dividend yield of 4.91% as of January 23 [1] - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (华夏 159547) is the ETF with the lowest comprehensive fee tracking this index, with quarterly evaluations for dividends [1] - The Quality Dividend Index (931468.CSI) selects 50 listed companies with continuous cash dividends, high payout ratios, and strong profitability, with a dividend yield of 3.06% as of January 23 [1] Group 2 - Luzhou Laojiao announced a cash dividend of 1.358 yuan per share (tax included), with the record date on January 29, 2026, and the ex-dividend date on January 30, 2026 [1] - Tianyuan Intelligent announced a cash dividend of 0.02 yuan per share (tax included), with the record date on January 29, 2026, and the ex-dividend date on January 30, 2026 [2]