证券代码：001979 证券简称：招商蛇口 公告编号：【CMSK】2026-002 招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司 关于为南通中豪提供担保的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏。 销策划；物业管理；住房租赁；非居住房地产租赁；建筑材料销售（除依法须经 批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 南通中豪主要财务指标：截至2025年12月31日，资产总额110,904.68万元， 负债总额76,969.47万元，净资产33,935.21万元；2025年，营业收入0万元，净 利润-1,079.79万元。该公司不存在对外担保的事项，不属于失信被执行人。 三、担保协议的主要内容 本公司拟按62%的股权比例为南通中豪向招商银行股份有限公司南通分行 申请的5亿元借款提供连带责任保证，担保本金金额不超过3.10亿元，保证期间 为自担保书生效之日起至借款到期之日或垫款之日起另加三年。南通中豪的另 外一方股东亦将按股权比例为上述贷款提供连带责任保证。 四、公司意见 南通中豪因项目建设需要，通过借款补充资金，有利于促进其经营发展。 南通中豪为公司控股子公司，担保风 ...

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in sales on a month-on-month basis, supported by policies aimed at improving housing conditions for residents [7] - The overall market performance is weak, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 3.52% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of -2.95% [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies, suggesting a focus on leading firms that can effectively navigate market fluctuations [7] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 3.52%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.57%, indicating underperformance of the sector relative to the broader market [4][12] Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 9-15, 2026, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 21,770 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.7% but a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. The total area sold was 201.4 million square meters, down 25.3% year-on-year but up 12.8% month-on-month [5][22] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 18,991 units, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5% and a month-on-month increase of 17.2%. The total area sold was 188 million square meters, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 18.3% month-on-month [5][40] Land Market Analysis - During the week of January 5-11, 2026, land supply was 2,198.8 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with an average supply price of 858 yuan per square meter, down 42% year-on-year. Land transactions totaled 1,503.1 million square meters, down 41.4% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 18.91 billion yuan, down 49.5% year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially sound leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current policy environment [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate and building materials sector experienced a significant increase, primarily driven by market rumors regarding policy relaxation in Shanghai and expectations of more substantial policy measures to follow [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - A reassessment of the real estate and related sectors is deemed necessary at this juncture [2] - Key points highlighted in the commentary from "Qiushi" include: 1. Recognition of real estate as a significant financial asset, central to household wealth [3] 2. The need for comprehensive policy measures rather than incremental adjustments, indicating potential for new expectations regarding policy strength and breadth [3] - Statistical data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in real estate investment by 17% year-on-year, new construction down by 20%, completions down by 18%, sales area down by 9%, and sales revenue down by 13% [3] - Despite the overall decline in data, the marginal negative impact on the building materials industry has noticeably weakened [3] - The fundamental investment logic in the building materials sector is centered on "supply-side improvement" preceding "demand-side recovery" [3] - Under the "anti-involution" policy direction, price coordination in industries like cement is beginning to show results, with profit levels continuing to recover [3] - The consumer building materials sector, including waterproofing and coatings, is entering the final phase of clearing out excess, with an improved competitive landscape and positive changes in gross margins and expense ratios for leading companies in specific segments [3] Recommendations - Recommended to focus on high-credit, high-quality real estate developers benefiting from policy rumors, such as China Merchants Shekou and Binjiang Group [4] - Suggested to pay attention to leading companies in the real estate supply chain that are expected to benefit from anticipated demand recovery, including Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of real estate companies is expected to stabilize as they navigate through the current market challenges, with a focus on asset impairment provisions and strategic investments in long-cycle industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Developments announced a projected revenue of approximately 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.09%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a decline compared to 2024 [2][4]. - The company plans to recognize asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaling approximately 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce the net profit for 2025 by about 4.2 billion yuan [4]. - Excluding the impact of impairment provisions, Poly Developments' net profit for 2025 is estimated to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter contributing approximately 3.3 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a cautious yet orderly expansion in investment, with companies exploring new revenue streams beyond traditional real estate development, such as entering long-cycle industries and enhancing service offerings [3][6]. - The top 100 real estate companies are projected to have a total land acquisition amount of 964 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, driven by favorable policies and the need for sustainable development [5]. - The industry is expected to enter a new development phase in 2026, as many companies have passed the peak of delivery and debt repayment, indicating a potential for recovery and stabilization in performance [2][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing on property operations and other sectors, with many adopting strategies to enhance their operational efficiency and capitalize on the growing REITs market [6][7]. - Companies like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou are also expanding their presence in property operations, with significant growth in recurring income and rental revenues [6]. - The market conditions are improving, with expectations for a recovery in 2026, as companies work towards repairing their balance sheets and potentially achieving profitability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is expected to stabilize as companies navigate through the current market challenges and explore new growth avenues, with major players like Poly Developments taking significant steps to adjust their strategies and financials [2][3][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Developments reported an estimated revenue of approximately 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.09%, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.03 billion yuan, a decline compared to 2024 [2][3]. - The company plans to recognize asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaling around 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce the net profit for 2025 by approximately 4.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - Excluding the impact of impairment provisions, Poly Developments' net profit for 2025 is estimated to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter contributing approximately 3.3 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The real estate sector is witnessing a cautious yet orderly expansion in investments, with companies focusing on stabilizing their operations and gradually reducing the impact of impairment provisions [2][3]. - The top 100 real estate companies in China are projected to have a total land acquisition amount of 964 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [4]. - The market is expected to see a recovery in 2026 as companies navigate through the peak of delivery and debt repayment, entering a new development phase [2][6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Many leading real estate firms are diversifying into long-cycle industries and real estate operations, with plans to invest in high-tech sectors and enhance service offerings [3][5]. - Poly Developments has expanded its operational assets to 5.73 million square meters, including 26,000 rental housing units, which increased by 18% compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - Other companies like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou are also pursuing similar strategies in real estate operations and indirect investments through industry funds [5].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen State-owned Enterprise ESG Index (970055) closed at 1483.72 points, down 0.36%, with a trading volume of 51.883 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.92% [1] - Among the constituent stocks of the index, 25 stocks rose, with China Merchants Shekou leading with a 7.35% increase, while 24 stocks fell, with Taisheng Wind Power leading the decline at 7.33% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds from the Shenzhen State-owned Enterprise ESG Index constituent stocks totaled 2.196 billion yuan, while the net inflow of speculative funds was 431 million yuan, and the net inflow of retail funds was 1.765 billion yuan [2] - Detailed fund flow information for the constituent stocks is available in the accompanying table [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rental and sales rights concept has seen a rise of 1.75%, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with significant gains from stocks like Chengdu Investment Holdings and Hefei Urban Construction, which hit the daily limit [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The rental and sales rights concept had 18 stocks rising, with notable increases from Chengdu Investment Holdings (10.11%), Hefei Urban Construction (10.03%), and *ST Nan Zhi (5.14%) [1][3]. - The top gainers in the sector included China Merchants Shekou (7.35%), I Love My Home (7.33%), and Huitong Energy (4.99%) [1][2]. - Conversely, the biggest decliners were *ST Yang Guang (-4.91%), Shoukai Co. (-4.72%), and Yueshin Health (-2.68%) [1][2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The rental and sales rights concept attracted a net inflow of 694 million yuan, with 15 stocks receiving net inflows, and five stocks exceeding 100 million yuan [2][3]. - Hefei Urban Construction led the net inflow with 277 million yuan, followed by I Love My Home (233 million yuan) and Poly Development (165 million yuan) [2][3]. - The net inflow ratios for leading stocks were Chengdu Investment Holdings (28.37%), Hefei Urban Construction (24.03%), and *ST Nan Zhi (20.17%) [3][4].

Group 1 - The real estate sector is experiencing significant activity, with stocks such as Dayue City, Chengdu Investment Holdings, and others reaching their daily limit up, while real estate ETFs have seen gains of over 3% [1] - The real estate ETFs tracking the CSI All Share Real Estate Index include major companies like China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Vanke A, indicating a concentration of top-tier firms in the investment direction [5] - The recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a slight decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities, with a 0.3% decrease month-on-month, while second and third-tier cities also experienced price drops [5] Group 2 - According to Everbright Securities, the implementation of real estate policies is enhancing local government autonomy in market regulation, leading to further regional and city differentiation [6] - Huayuan Securities anticipates that the real estate adjustment cycle may be nearing its end, with historical data suggesting that the current price adjustments in China are relatively sufficient [7] - The trend towards "good housing" is emerging, with a shift in policy focus towards building safe, comfortable, and green homes, indicating potential growth in the high-quality residential market [7]

Group 1 - The real estate sector showed significant gains on the 20th, with stocks like Dayuecheng, Zhonghua Enterprise, and Chengdu Investment Holdings hitting the daily limit, while China Merchants Shekou and China Merchants Jinling rose over 7% [2] - Recent policies from the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development support residents in purchasing homes by extending personal income tax policies and lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property loans to 30% [2] - The financial regulatory authority aims to establish a normalized real estate financing coordination mechanism, while tax incentives for public rental housing are also being extended [2] Group 2 - According to Kaiyuan Securities, three trends are expected in 2026: 1) The real estate adjustment phase may be nearing its end, with current price adjustments in China being relatively sufficient compared to global averages [3] 2) There will be structural opportunities for "good houses" as the market enters a phase of differentiation, with a focus on high-quality residential developments [3] 3) The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to continue its recovery, driven by multiple favorable factors, leading to a potential revaluation of Hong Kong property developers [3]