Core Insights - The report highlights the expected recovery in the semiconductor industry, with specific companies poised to benefit from this trend, particularly in the IC substrate market driven by AI demand [7][9][10]. Company Summaries - **兴森科技 (Xingsen Technology)**: The company is projected to achieve a net profit of between 132 million to 140 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses. This improvement is attributed to stable revenue growth and the recovery of its main business segments [8]. - **江丰电子 (Jiangfeng Electronics)**: The company is noted for its strategic positioning in both BT and ABF substrates, which are critical for AI applications. The demand for IC substrates is expected to surge, with the global market projected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, and further to 45.34 billion USD by 2035, indicating a robust CAGR of 10.51% from 2026 to 2035 [10][11]. Industry Insights - The IC substrate market is experiencing a significant demand increase due to the rise of AI applications, with supply constraints leading to price increases. The supply-demand gap for ABF substrates is particularly pronounced, with a reported shortfall of 21% and prices rising by 38% over the past year [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the critical role of IC substrates in supporting AI computing power upgrades, with the technology's evolution being driven by the increasing density and performance requirements of AI chips [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the semiconductor materials industry Core Insights - The global semiconductor materials market is characterized by "long-term growth and cyclical fluctuations," with the market size expected to grow from $27.5 billion in 2000 to $67.47 billion by 2024, driven by the demand for advanced semiconductor materials in various high-tech applications [3][5] - China's semiconductor materials industry has made significant progress in mid-to-low-end products but still relies heavily on imports for high-end materials, indicating a substantial opportunity for domestic production and technological breakthroughs [1][10] - The report emphasizes the need for a dual approach of technological breakthroughs and ecosystem building to drive the development of the semiconductor materials industry, supported by government policies and strategic collaborations [1][23] Industry Overview - Semiconductor materials are critical strategic materials for the semiconductor industry, with the market experiencing long-term growth and cyclical fluctuations due to factors such as industry cycles and end-user demand [2][3] - The market structure is shifting as the industry chain relocates and domestic production increases, with China rapidly expanding its market share driven by local demand and government policies [5][10] - The report highlights the significant market concentration in the semiconductor materials sector, with a few leading companies dominating the market [10] Industry Bottlenecks - Despite achieving local supply capabilities in mid-to-low-end products, China still faces challenges in high-end semiconductor materials, which remain heavily reliant on imports [10][13] - Key areas such as silicon wafers, electronic specialty gases, and photoresists are identified as critical segments where domestic production is lagging behind, with high-end products still largely imported [13][18][21] - The report notes that the domestic supply of electronic specialty gases is weak, with an overall localization rate of about 15% expected in 2024, indicating a significant gap in high-end product capabilities [16] Path to Breakthrough - The semiconductor materials industry must focus on technological advancements and ecosystem development, emphasizing collaboration between academia, research institutions, and leading enterprises to address core technological challenges [23][24] - Establishing a robust and efficient results transformation chain is crucial, with a focus on concept validation, pilot testing, and mass production to enhance the commercialization of technological innovations [24][25] - The report advocates for a self-sufficient and sustainable industry ecosystem, extending upstream to secure high-purity raw materials and key equipment while deepening collaboration with downstream chip design and manufacturing companies [25] Policy Empowerment - National policies are increasingly directing the industry towards key areas, with a focus on advanced semiconductor materials as a strategic priority [26][27] - The establishment of pilot platforms for new materials is highlighted as a key initiative to support the industry's development, with plans to create approximately 300 local pilot platforms by 2027 [28] - Financial policies are also being implemented to support innovation and market transformation in the new materials sector, including insurance compensation for high-risk areas [29] Future Outlook - The semiconductor materials industry is expected to evolve towards a high-quality development phase, balancing quality and safety while fostering collaboration between domestic and international players [34] - The focus will shift from isolated breakthroughs to collaborative ecosystems, with an emphasis on meeting the increasing demands for material purity, performance, and stability from downstream applications [34]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月12日，兴森科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，FCBGA封装基板业务进度主要 取决于行业需求恢复状况、客户自身的量产进展及其供应商管理策略，公司层面主要在于提升技术能 力、良率水准，并加强市场拓展，为未来的大批量量产打下坚实的基础，具体业务情况请关注公司定期 报告。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant recovery in the profitability of the company, with a projected net profit of between 132 million and 140 million yuan for 2025, marking a substantial turnaround from previous losses [8][9] - The demand for IC substrates is driven by the explosive growth in AI server requirements, leading to a price surge in the substrate industry, particularly for BT and ABF substrates, with a reported price increase of 38% over the past year [10][11] - The global IC substrate market is expected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, with a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% projected from 2026 to 2035 [11] Company Analysis - The company is positioned as one of the few manufacturers with both BT and ABF substrate capabilities, making its production capacity and technological expertise particularly valuable in the current market context [10][12] - The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for the company are projected to be 0.08 yuan in 2025, 0.25 yuan in 2026, and 0.40 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "recommend" rating for investment [12]

2. 中国人民银行：2 月 11 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 785 亿 元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 785 亿元，中标量 785 亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了 4000 亿 元 14 天期逆回购操作。当日 750 亿元逆回购到期，净投放 4035 亿元。 （资料来源：同花顺） 东 兴 晨 报 经济要闻 1. 中国人民银行：发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》指 出，下阶段将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政 策集成效应。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕 和社会融资条件相对宽松。未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关注长期 收益率的变化。针对市场对银行存款"流失"的担忧，央行分析指出，居 民资产配置调整最终会回流到银行体系，并不意味着流动性状况出现较 大变化。（资料来源：同花顺） 3. 国家统计局：2 月 11 日，国家统计局发布了以 2025 年为基期的全 国居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据， 这是本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。基期轮换是价格指数编制的重要 基础性工作，也是国际 ...

Group 1 - The company, Xingsen Technology, stated that its FCBGA packaging substrates are primarily used in high-performance chip fields such as CPU, GPU, FPGA, and ASIC [2] - The CSP packaging substrates are mainly utilized in storage and RF chip sectors, with an overall production capacity of 50,000 square meters per month [2] - The previous capacity of 35,000 square meters per month has reached full production, and the new expansion of 15,000 square meters per month is progressing rapidly [2] - The overall industry demand is currently strong, and future expansion plans will depend on market demand [2]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 1. 新华社：2 月 10 日，十四届全国人大常委会第六十一次委员长会议 在北京人民大会堂举行。赵乐际委员长主持会议。会议决定，十四届全 国人大常委会第二十一次会议 2 月 25 日至 26 日在北京举行。（资料来 源：同花顺） 2. 沪深北交易所：2 月 9 日，沪深北交易所宣布优化再融资一揽子措 施，聚焦优质上市公司和科技创新领域。主要举措包括：提高审核效率； 修订"轻资产、高研发投入"认定标准；支持募集资金用于与主业有协同 的新产业、新业态、新技术领域；对未盈利上市企业缩短融资间隔等。 分析认为，此次政策调整意味着，未来符合"轻资产、高研发投入"认定 标准的主板企业将不再受 30%补流比例限制。本轮优化释放出 3 个信号： 扶优、扶科的政策导向突出；系统优化再融资流程，回应市场关切；加 强再融资全过程监管，营造良好市场生态。（资料来源：同花顺） 3. 三部门明确跨境电商出口退运商品税收优惠政策。近日，财政部、 海关总署、税务总局联合发布《关于跨境电子商务出口退运商品税收优 惠政策的公告》。《公告》规定，对 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2027 年 12 月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the profitability of Xing Sen Technology's main business has significantly improved, with expectations to turn profitable by 2025 [1] - The AI-driven substrate market is experiencing high demand, and the company's scarce production capacity is becoming increasingly valuable [1] - Xing Sen Technology is one of the few domestic manufacturers with both BT and ABF substrate capabilities, making its production and technical capabilities particularly rare in the current market context [1] Group 2 - The demand for IC substrates is expected to continue rising due to explosive growth in AI chips, high-performance computing (HPC), and 5G communication sectors, leading the industry into a new growth phase [1] - The global IC substrate market is projected to reach USD 16.69 billion by 2025, increase to USD 18.44 billion by 2026, and eventually expand to USD 45.34 billion by 2035 [1] - The market is anticipated to grow at a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% from 2026 to 2035 [1] Group 3 - The company is expected to benefit from the AI wave, with its PCB and semiconductor businesses continuing to perform well [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for the company are estimated at CNY 0.08, CNY 0.25, and CNY 0.40 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - The report maintains a "recommend" rating for the company [1]

公 司 研 究 兴森科技（002436.SZ）：扭亏为盈， AI 驱动 IC 载板涨价潮持续 2026 年 2 月 9 日 推荐/维持 兴森科技 公司报告 ——公司 2025 年业绩预告点评 事件： 2026 年 1 月 30 日，兴森科技发布 2025 年年度业绩预告：预计实现归母净利 润 1.32 亿元至 1.40 亿元，大幅扭亏为盈；扣非归母净利润预计为 1.38 亿元 至 1.46 亿元。 点评： 公司主营业务盈利能力显著修复，2025 年预计扭亏为盈。2025 年公司预计实 现归母净利润 1.32 亿元至 1.40 亿元；扣非归母净利润预计为 1.38 亿元至 1.46 亿元。主要受益于行业复苏，公司营业收入保持稳定增长。利润层面主要受广 州兴森半导体有限公司 FCBGA 封装基板业务和宜兴硅谷电子科技有限公司高 多层 PCB 业务的影响，其中，FCBGA 封装基板业务仍未实现大批量量产，依 然对公司盈利形成拖累，全年费用投入约 6.6 亿元，但 2025 年样品订单数量 同比实现大幅增长;高多层 PCB 业务因产品结构不佳，全年亏损约 1 亿元，但 各季度亏损持续收窄，第四季度已接近盈亏平衡。 | ...

公 司 研 究 兴森科技（002436.SZ）：扭亏为盈， AI 驱动 IC 载板涨价潮持续 公司主营业务盈利能力显著修复，2025 年预计扭亏为盈。2025 年公司预计实 现归母净利润 1.32 亿元至 1.40 亿元；扣非归母净利润预计为 1.38 亿元至 1.46 亿元。主要受益于行业复苏，公司营业收入保持稳定增长。利润层面主要受广 州兴森半导体有限公司 FCBGA 封装基板业务和宜兴硅谷电子科技有限公司高 多层 PCB 业务的影响，其中，FCBGA 封装基板业务仍未实现大批量量产，依 然对公司盈利形成拖累，全年费用投入约 6.6 亿元，但 2025 年样品订单数量 同比实现大幅增长;高多层 PCB 业务因产品结构不佳，全年亏损约 1 亿元，但 各季度亏损持续收窄，第四季度已接近盈亏平衡。 AI 驱动载板高景气，上游刚性涨价，公司稀缺产能价值凸显。AI 服务器需求 大爆发，增加对 IC 载板的需求，封装基板产业链的涨价潮已形成刚性传导。 智能手机等产品大量使用的 BT 载板率先提价；而用于 CPU、GPU 等高端芯 片的 ABF 载板近期也加入涨价行列，其供需缺口高达 21%，价格一年内飙涨 38%。目 ...