（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月12日，兴森科技在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，FCBGA封装基板业务进度主要 取决于行业需求恢复状况、客户自身的量产进展及其供应商管理策略，公司层面主要在于提升技术能 力、良率水准，并加强市场拓展，为未来的大批量量产打下坚实的基础，具体业务情况请关注公司定期 报告。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant recovery in the profitability of the company, with a projected net profit of between 132 million and 140 million yuan for 2025, marking a substantial turnaround from previous losses [8][9] - The demand for IC substrates is driven by the explosive growth in AI server requirements, leading to a price surge in the substrate industry, particularly for BT and ABF substrates, with a reported price increase of 38% over the past year [10][11] - The global IC substrate market is expected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, with a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% projected from 2026 to 2035 [11] Company Analysis - The company is positioned as one of the few manufacturers with both BT and ABF substrate capabilities, making its production capacity and technological expertise particularly valuable in the current market context [10][12] - The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for the company are projected to be 0.08 yuan in 2025, 0.25 yuan in 2026, and 0.40 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "recommend" rating for investment [12]

Economic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for January, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in CPI and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.8% [2][4] - The logistics sector showed a total social logistics volume of 368.2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating strong support for the real economy [5] Company Insights - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported a revenue of 17.813 billion yuan for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, with a net profit of 1.223 billion yuan, up 23.2% [6][7] - Huaxia Fund, a subsidiary of CITIC Securities, achieved a revenue of 9.626 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.396 billion yuan in 2025, with total managed assets reaching 3.01 trillion yuan [7] - In 2025, Huizhou Technology expects a net profit of 4.971 billion to 5.399 billion yuan, representing a growth of 16% to 26% year-on-year, driven by good revenue growth and effective cost control [8] - Newhan New Materials plans to raise up to 1 billion yuan through a private placement to fund projects related to high-performance resins and composite materials [9] - Teabo Bio reported a total revenue of 3.696 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.18%, with a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, up 25.39% [9] Industry Analysis - The global IC substrate market is projected to reach 16.69 billion USD in 2025 and grow to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, driven by the demand for AI and high-performance computing [12][13] - The demand for IC substrates is expected to continue rising due to the rapid growth in AI applications and high-performance computing, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% anticipated from 2026 to 2035 [13] - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI wave, with its PCB and semiconductor businesses expected to perform well, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.08 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.40 yuan for 2025 to 2027 [14]

Group 1 - The company, Xingsen Technology, stated that its FCBGA packaging substrates are primarily used in high-performance chip fields such as CPU, GPU, FPGA, and ASIC [2] - The CSP packaging substrates are mainly utilized in storage and RF chip sectors, with an overall production capacity of 50,000 square meters per month [2] - The previous capacity of 35,000 square meters per month has reached full production, and the new expansion of 15,000 square meters per month is progressing rapidly [2] - The overall industry demand is currently strong, and future expansion plans will depend on market demand [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant recovery in the profitability of the company, with a projected net profit of between 132 million and 140 million yuan for 2025, marking a substantial turnaround from previous losses [9][10] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the recovery of the industry, particularly benefiting from the FCBGA packaging substrate business and the high-layer PCB business, despite some ongoing challenges in mass production and product structure [10][11] - The demand for IC substrates is driven by the explosive growth in AI server requirements, leading to a price surge in both BT and ABF substrates, with a supply-demand gap of 21% for ABF substrates, resulting in a price increase of 38% over the past year [11][12] Company-Specific Summaries - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.32 billion to 1.40 billion yuan in 2025, with a non-recurring net profit forecast of 1.38 billion to 1.46 billion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in its core business [9][10] - The FCBGA packaging substrate business is still in the ramp-up phase, impacting profitability, while the high-layer PCB business has shown signs of improvement, with losses narrowing towards breakeven in the fourth quarter [10][11] - The global IC substrate market is projected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% expected from 2026 to 2035, driven by advancements in AI and high-performance computing [12][13] Industry Insights - The IC substrate market is becoming increasingly critical for supporting AI computing upgrades, with high-density wiring and precision manufacturing being essential characteristics [12] - The ongoing demand for AI chips and high-performance computing is expected to sustain the growth of the IC substrate market, indicating a new growth phase for the industry [12] - The company is positioned uniquely in the market, having both BT and ABF substrate capabilities, which enhances its competitive edge amid rising demand and supply constraints [11][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the profitability of Xing Sen Technology's main business has significantly improved, with expectations to turn profitable by 2025 [1] - The AI-driven substrate market is experiencing high demand, and the company's scarce production capacity is becoming increasingly valuable [1] - Xing Sen Technology is one of the few domestic manufacturers with both BT and ABF substrate capabilities, making its production and technical capabilities particularly rare in the current market context [1] Group 2 - The demand for IC substrates is expected to continue rising due to explosive growth in AI chips, high-performance computing (HPC), and 5G communication sectors, leading the industry into a new growth phase [1] - The global IC substrate market is projected to reach USD 16.69 billion by 2025, increase to USD 18.44 billion by 2026, and eventually expand to USD 45.34 billion by 2035 [1] - The market is anticipated to grow at a robust compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% from 2026 to 2035 [1] Group 3 - The company is expected to benefit from the AI wave, with its PCB and semiconductor businesses continuing to perform well [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for the company are estimated at CNY 0.08, CNY 0.25, and CNY 0.40 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - The report maintains a "recommend" rating for the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, benefiting from the AI wave and the dual drive of PCB and semiconductor businesses [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 132 million and 140 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from losses [3][4]. - The recovery in the company's main business profitability is attributed to industry recovery and stable revenue growth, with significant contributions from FCBGA packaging substrate and high-layer PCB businesses [4][5]. - The demand for IC substrates is driven by the explosion in AI server demand, leading to a price surge in packaging substrates, particularly for BT substrates and ABF substrates, with a supply-demand gap reaching 21% and prices increasing by 38% over the past year [5][6]. - The global IC substrate market is projected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% expected from 2026 to 2035 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 6.86 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 17.96%, and net profits are expected to increase significantly in the following years [14]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.08 yuan, 0.25 yuan, and 0.40 yuan, respectively [12][14]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 1.83% in 2025 to 6.39% in 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, benefiting from the AI wave and the dual drive of PCB and semiconductor business growth [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 132 million and 140 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from losses [3][4]. - The recovery in the company's main business profitability is attributed to industry recovery and stable revenue growth, with notable contributions from FCBGA packaging substrate and high-layer PCB businesses [4][5]. - The demand for IC substrates is driven by the explosion in AI server demand, leading to a price surge in packaging substrate products, particularly BT and ABF substrates, with a supply-demand gap reaching 21% and prices increasing by 38% over the past year [5][6]. - The global IC substrate market is projected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.51% expected from 2026 to 2035 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 6.86 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 17.96%, and net profits are expected to increase significantly to 432.7 million yuan in 2026 [14][15]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.08 yuan in 2025, 0.25 yuan in 2026, and 0.40 yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [12][14]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 1.83% in 2025 to 4.84% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [15].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. PCB (Printed Circuit Board) - The PCB sector has shown weak performance since Q4 of last year, primarily due to divergent market views on orthogonal backplane solutions, with some believing they may be replaced by copper cables/CPO or delayed until 2028. However, the orthogonal backplane is currently progressing steadily and is expected to enter mass production in H2 2027. Leading companies are experiencing stock price stagnation due to these divergences, highlighting their cost-effectiveness. Recommended companies include Dongshan Precision, Shenghong Technology, and Huidian Co. [1] - The CoWoP (Chip on Wafer on PCB) solution has stronger certainty, can reduce costs, improve efficiency, and bypass the shortage of substrate capacity. The value per square meter of PCB may increase several times, potentially reaching tenfold, with product launches expected by the end of 2027 and full implementation in 2028. Recommended companies in this direction include Pengding Holdings, Shennan Circuit, and Xinsong Technology. [1] 2. Storage - Contract prices remain in an upward cycle despite fluctuations in spot prices. Module companies are expected to see explosive Q1 performance, with Jiangbolong and Demingli realizing low-priced inventory. Recommended design companies include Zhaoyi Innovation (with a profit expectation of 6 billion) and Puran Co., Beijing Junzheng, and Hengshuo Co. [2] - Demand for memory modules is driven by AI servers and general servers, with recommendations for Lanke Technology (long-term profit of 10 billion) and Jucheng Co. (long-term profit of 1.5 billion). [2] 3. Communication - The recent decline in optical modules is related to the pullback of US tech stocks and speculation around CPO concepts. However, industry sources (such as Coherent and Xuchuang) indicate that CPO's potential to replace optical modules in ScaleOut scenarios is low, suggesting that short-term speculation may be excessive. [2] - North American cloud service providers have exceeded capital expenditure guidance for 2026 (620 billion, up 65% year-on-year), indicating potential accelerated demand for optical modules in 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include Nvidia's quarterly report (February 26), GTC conference (March), and OFC exhibition (NPO product showcase). Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng, and Dongshan Precision. [2] - For copper connections as a Plan B alternative to orthogonal backplanes, companies to watch include Luxshare Precision, Wokai Nuclear Materials, and Huiju Technology (with potential for stock doubling). [2] - The price of scattered fiber has surged in the short term (from 25 to 50 yuan), but the low willingness of operators to raise prices raises doubts about long-term sustainability. [2] 4. Computing - Domestic computing resources are in short supply, with the recent downtime of Qianwen highlighting the scarcity of AI foundational resources. The demand for CPUs is expected to rise due to increased usage of agents compared to chatbots. Recommended companies include Haiguang Information (benefiting from both CPU and GPU), Cambrian (leading domestic AI chip manufacturer), and Tianshu Zhixin (expected to accelerate integration with leading players). [2] - Cloud infrastructure resources are expected to benefit from price increases, with recommendations for Kingsoft Cloud, Wangsu Technology, and Fourth Paradigm. [2] - In the AI application sector, the recent drop in overseas software and restructuring of SaaS business models may lead to a narrative reversal with the launch of native agent products in Q3 2026. Companies to watch include Alibaba for 2C entry reconstruction and third-party AI agents like TaxFriend, Zhongkong Technology, and Dingjie Smart. [2] 5. Media - Tencent has faced a decline due to market concerns over potential tax increases on internet platforms, although there is no space for increased game value-added tax. The company remains recommended despite rumors of Q4 earnings downgrades, maintaining a PE ratio of 15 times, which still offers value. [3] - The download situation for the Yuanbao app remains stable, and Tencent's AI capabilities may be closing the gap with larger competitors. [3] - In gaming, companies with upcoming catalysts such as Giant Network and Perfect World are recommended for short-term focus, while Century Huatong and Kaiying Network are suggested for medium to long-term attention due to expected catalysts. [3] - Tencent's establishment of a separate AI comic app is beneficial for the production side, which is entering a period of profitability. Recommendations include Kuaishou, Huanrui, and Rongxin. [3] 6. Pharmaceuticals - Attention is drawn to the update of the essential drug catalog, which may accelerate progress. [4] - The probability of inclusion in the essential drug catalog is high for unique products, with several specific products from companies like Jichuan Pharmaceutical and Panlong Pharmaceutical being highlighted. [4] - Emphasis on the global competitiveness of the innovative drug industry chain, with a focus on new-generation ADCs, IOs, small nucleic acids, and CGT. Recommended companies include Kanghong, Yingen, Yunding, and Chengdu Xian Dao. [4] - The brain-computer interface theme is noted, with a potential showcase of non-invasive products during the Spring Festival and a semi-invasive product approval for Borui Kang in March. [4] - Recommendations include Meihua Medical, Dongwei Semiconductor, and Sanbo Brain Science. [5] - The surgical robot sector is expected to see comprehensive implementation of charging policies before August, with overseas orders doubling and maintaining high growth in 2027. Key types include laparoscopic and orthopedic robots, with strong overseas performance for laparoscopic robots. Recommended companies include MicroPort, Jingfeng Medical, Tianzhihang, and Sanyou Medical. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing demand for ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrates driven by advancements in AI, high-performance computing, and other technologies, predicting a supply-demand gap that will worsen over the coming years, with a projected gap of 10% by the second half of 2026 and potentially reaching 42% by 2028 [2][3]. Group 1: ABF Film Overview - ABF film is a critical insulating material used in semiconductor packaging, developed by Ajinomoto, and is essential for high-density interconnections in advanced microprocessors [8][10]. - The film consists of three layers: a supporting medium (PET), ABF resin, and a protective film, with the resin's components significantly affecting its dielectric and thermal properties [10][12]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The global IC packaging substrate market is projected to grow from approximately 96.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 135.0 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% [31]. - The demand for ABF substrates is primarily driven by high-performance computing, 5G communication, and automotive electronics, with the latter two being the fastest-growing markets [27][41]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Ajinomoto dominates the ABF film market with over 95% market share, creating a significant barrier for new entrants due to its extensive patent portfolio and established customer relationships [46][48]. - Other companies attempting to enter the market include a few Japanese firms and some Chinese companies, but they lack the market influence of Ajinomoto [46][48]. Group 4: Future Directions and Investment Logic - The article suggests that the ongoing technological upgrades and the shift in demand structure towards AI applications will create long-term growth opportunities in the ABF film market [2][3]. - The need for domestic production of ABF materials in China is highlighted as a strategic move to mitigate supply chain risks and capitalize on the growing market demand [3].