Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of -200 million to -170 million CNY for 2024, marking its first loss since its listing in 2010 [3] - The overall cost input for the FCBGA packaging substrate project is over 760 million CNY, an increase of over 364 million CNY year-on-year [3] - The combined expected losses for subsidiaries Yixing Silicon Valley and Guangzhou Xingke in 2024 are approximately 203 million CNY, an increase of about 77 million CNY [3] - The total impact on net profit after tax from various factors is approximately 180 million CNY [4] Industry Overview - The PCB industry is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025, with a projected market value increase from 73.6 billion USD to 91.1 billion USD from 2023 to 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% [5] - The best-performing sectors are AI and renewable energy, particularly in the server/data center market, which is expected to remain strong in 2025 [5] Project Updates - The FCBGA packaging substrate project has exceeded an investment of 3.5 billion CNY and is currently in small-batch production, focusing on market expansion and ramping up production [6] - The CSP packaging substrate business is expected to maintain steady growth in 2024, driven by increased market share from major storage clients [7] - The semiconductor test board business has seen continuous improvement in capacity utilization and product quality, contributing to revenue growth [8] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to digital transformation and high-end packaging substrate strategies, aiming to enhance competitiveness through quality and efficiency improvements [14] - Future investments will focus on expanding production capacity for CSP packaging substrates and advancing customer certification for FCBGA packaging substrates [14] AI Sector Engagement - The company is actively investing in AI-related PCB and semiconductor businesses, with a focus on enhancing production capacity for AI server applications [12]

Financial Performance Expectations - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders between 170 million and 200 million CNY for the year 2024, compared to a profit of 211.21 million CNY in the same period last year[3]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is also expected to be a loss between 170 million and 200 million CNY, down from a profit of 47.76 million CNY last year[3]. - Basic earnings per share are projected to be a loss of 0.10 to 0.12 CNY per share, compared to earnings of 0.13 CNY per share in the previous year[3]. Reasons for Loss - The main reasons for the loss include over 760 million CNY in expenses related to the FCBGA packaging substrate business and losses from subsidiaries, including approximately 133 million CNY from Yixing Silicon Valley and 70 million CNY from Guangzhou Xinke[5]. - The company anticipates recognizing a fair value loss of about 60 million CNY due to ongoing losses from its associate Shenzhen Ruijun Semiconductor Co., Ltd.[6]. - An estimated asset impairment of around 60 million CNY is expected due to changes in the operating conditions of certain subsidiaries[6]. - Cumulatively, these factors are expected to impact the net profit after tax by approximately 180 million CNY[6]. Audit and Forecast Accuracy - The company has communicated with its auditing firm regarding the earnings forecast, and there are no disagreements on the forecast[4]. - As of the announcement date, the company has not identified any significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of the earnings forecast[7].

证券代码：002436 证券简称：兴森科技 公告编号：2025-01-001 深圳市兴森快捷电路科技股份有限公司 债券代码：128122 债券简称：兴森转债 关于 2024 年第四季度可转换公司债券转股情况的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： | 股票代码：002436 | | | | | 股票简称：兴森科技 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128122 | | | | | 债券简称：兴森转债 | | | | | | | 转股价格：人民币 | | 13.38 | | 元/股 | | | | | | | | 转股期限：2021 | 年 | 1 月 | 29 | 日至 | 2025 | 年 | 7 | 月 | 22 | 日 | 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 15 号——可转换公司债券》的有关规定，深圳市兴森快捷电路科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Insights - The company is strategically investing in FCBGA packaging substrates to support domestic high-end chips, currently in the market expansion and small-batch production phase, but still facing losses due to small order sizes [9]. - The CSP packaging substrate business is expected to recover as the semiconductor industry stabilizes, with a significant increase in order volume noted in September [9][12]. - The high-density PCB segment is poised for growth, particularly in AI server and optical module applications, with production capacity upgrades underway [9][11]. Financial Overview - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6 billion, 7 billion, and 8 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to be 20 million, 201 million, and 403 million yuan [12]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are forecasted at 1024, 100, and 50 respectively [12]. - The company reported a total revenue of 5.36 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 0.11%, and is expected to grow at rates of 12.31%, 17.02%, and 14.26% in the following years [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.47 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.36%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of -51 million yuan, a decrease of 129.64% year-on-year [5][6] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 14.82%, down 11.34 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, an increase of 9.10% year-on-year, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of -32 million yuan, a decrease of 116.59% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is facing short-term performance pressure, particularly in its PCB and CSP packaging substrate businesses, while the FCBGA project is in a phase of investment and small-scale production [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company’s PCB business generated over 3.2 billion yuan in output value, a 5% year-on-year increase, but faced challenges in profitability due to weak demand in the European market [6] - The CSP packaging substrate business saw an output value of 830 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 48%, but faced order shortages and a capacity utilization rate of approximately 50% [6][7] - The FCBGA substrate business incurred expenses of 530 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, surpassing the total expenses of the previous year, and has entered small-batch production [6][7] Industry Outlook - The global PCB industry is expected to show a weak recovery in 2024, with an estimated output value of 73.35 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [7] - The semiconductor packaging substrate business is anticipated to become a new growth driver for the company, with expected net profits attributable to shareholders of 0.07 billion yuan, 1.70 billion yuan, and 3.82 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's short-term profits are under pressure due to significant investments in FCBGA packaging substrates, while long-term benefits from domestic substitution are expected to continue to grow [2][4] - The semiconductor business is progressing steadily, with rapid revenue growth in BT substrates driven by the recovery of the storage chip industry and increased market share from major storage clients [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing IC packaging substrate technology, which has substantial growth potential, particularly in the context of AI chip development [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved total revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, but reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -30 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 117% [2] - The revenue for Q3 alone was 1.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -50 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 130% [2] - The forecast for total revenue is expected to grow from 5.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.06 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 13.09% [1][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline significantly from 211 million yuan in 2023 to 32 million yuan in 2024, before rebounding to 456 million yuan in 2026 [1][10] Valuation Metrics - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 467.10 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 32.75 by 2026 [1][11] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 17.71 billion yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 3.49 [6][11]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - FCBGA investment has put short-term pressure on profits, but long-term benefits from domestic substitution are expected to drive growth [2] - Semiconductor business is progressing steadily, with BT substrate revenue growing rapidly due to the recovery of the memory chip market [3] - Focus on IC packaging substrate technology improvement, with significant development potential [4] - Despite short-term profit fluctuations, the company's leading position in ABF substrates and strategic customer relationships support long-term growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.35 billion yuan, up 9% YoY, with a net loss of 30 million yuan, down 117% YoY [2] - Q3 revenue was 1.47 billion yuan, up 3% YoY, with a net loss of 50 million yuan, down 130% YoY [2] - 2024E revenue is projected at 6.062 billion yuan, up 13.09% YoY, with net profit expected to be 31.98 million yuan, down 84.86% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue is projected at 7.162 billion yuan, up 18.15% YoY, with net profit expected to be 311.93 million yuan, up 875.51% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue is projected at 8.817 billion yuan, up 23.11% YoY, with net profit expected to be 456.02 million yuan, up 46.19% YoY [1] Business Highlights - BT substrate business has seen rapid growth due to increased market share with major memory customers and optimization of product structure [3] - ABF substrate is in the market expansion phase, with low-layer board yield exceeding 92% and high-layer board yield stable above 85% [3] - The company has made significant achievements in thin-board processing and fine-line manufacturing since entering the CSP packaging substrate field in 2012 [4] - The company expanded into the ABF substrate field in 2022, further enhancing its advanced packaging substrate industry layout [4] Valuation and Financial Metrics - Current P/E ratio is 467.10x for 2024E, 47.88x for 2025E, and 32.75x for 2026E [1] - Current market price is 10.48 yuan, with a one-year low/high of 8.05/17.85 yuan [6] - Market capitalization is 17.70698 billion yuan, with a P/B ratio of 3.49x [6] - ROE is projected at 0.61% for 2024E, 5.66% for 2025E, and 7.64% for 2026E [11] Industry and Market Context - The IC packaging substrate is a critical component in the semiconductor industry, with strong demand driven by AI technology advancements [4] - The company is expected to continue leading the domestic substitution process in advanced packaging, contributing to strong growth in the semiconductor business [3][4]

Company and Industry Conference Call Summary Company Overview - The company reported Q3 revenue of 1.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.36% [1] - Year-to-date revenue reached 4.35 billion, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The company faced operational losses primarily due to high costs associated with ADF substrates and ongoing losses from Yixing Silicon Valley and BT substrates projects [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 operating loss was 51.1 million, with a total loss of 316 million for the first three quarters [1] - Significant expenses included 205 million for ADF substrates in Q3 and 530 million for the entire year [2] - The company reported a total impairment of 20.08 million for semiconductor project investments in Q3 [2] Project Losses - ADF substrates project incurred a loss of 393.5 million in Q3, totaling 890 million for the first three quarters [2] - BT substrates project reported a loss of 2.1 million in Q3 and 5.518 million for the year [2] - The company acknowledged that the overall demand in the industry was weak, affecting capacity utilization rates [2][3] Industry Insights - The PCB industry is experiencing weak growth, with a projected single-digit increase according to Prismark's report [3] - AI-related sectors, particularly server and data center computing, are showing strong growth, with a 24% increase in the first half of the year [3] - The communication sector is facing declines, with wired and wireless infrastructure down by 3% and 7% respectively [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on the AI trend, particularly in server and storage solutions [7] - There is an expectation of a gradual recovery in the semiconductor industry by 2025, with potential supply-demand imbalances [11] - The company aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs through digital system integration and quality enhancements [6] Product Development - The company is working on expanding its product offerings in high-layer HDI and high-speed boards, which are currently the fastest-growing segments [5] - The company has begun small-scale production of ADF substrates, with expectations for further growth in 2025 [10][22] Challenges and Strategies - The company faces challenges from increased competition and price pressures in the domestic market [5][12] - Strategies include focusing on high-value products and improving production yields to maintain profitability [26] - The company is also exploring partnerships with major clients in both domestic and international markets to enhance its market position [21][23] Key Metrics - The company reported a significant increase in order volumes, with over 30,000 orders in September, marking a new high since Q3 2022 [8] - The average selling price for products remains stable, with no significant declines compared to the previous year [8][25] Conclusion - The company is navigating a challenging market environment but is optimistic about future growth driven by AI and high-tech applications. The focus on improving operational efficiency and product quality is expected to support recovery and profitability in the coming years.

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 10 月 30 日 兴森科技（002436.SZ） 24Q3 营收稳健增长，IC 载板量产落地加速助力未来发展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|-------|--------|--------|-------|-------------------------------------------|-----------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,354 | 5,360 | 6,014 | 7,206 | 8,657 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 6.2 | 0.1 | 12.2 | 19.8 | 20.1 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 526 | 211 | 16 | 295 | 529 | 行业 | 电子 | | 增长 ...

开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 公 司 研 究 兴森科技（002436.SZ） 2024 年 10 月 28 日 股价走势图 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------|-------|-------|--------|--------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 5,354 | 5,360 | 6,009 | 8,002 | 9,544 | | | YOY(%) | 6.2 | 0.1 | 12.1 | 33.2 | 19.3 | | | 归母净利润 ( 百万元 ) | 526 | 211 | 17 | 251 | 350 | | | YOY(%) | -15.4 | -59.8 | -91.9 | 1361.9 | 39.8 | | | 毛利率 (%) | 28.7 | 23.3 | 22.0 | ...