[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品/食品加工 证券研究报告 洽洽食品（002557）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 30 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------| | 股票数据 | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 30 日收盘价（元） ] | | 52 周股价波动（元） | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《坚果保持快速增长，盈利能力较好恢复》 | | 2024.09.03 | | 《 全 年 营 收 平 稳 ， 一 季 度 业 绩 亮 眼 》 | | 2024.05.27 | | 《单四季度利润率压力趋缓，期待 | | 利润双复苏》 2024.02.28 市场表现 | [Table_QuoteInfo] -32.22% -24.22% -16.22% -8.22% -0.22% 2023/11 ...

证 券 研 报 公 研 2024 年 10 月 30 日 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年10月30日 洽洽食品（002557.SZ） 优于大市 第三季度收入恢复正增长，盈利能力改善 洽洽食品公布 2024 年三季度报告，2024 年前三季度实现营业总收入 47.58 亿元，同比+6.24%；实现归母净利润 6.26 亿元，同比+23.79%；实现扣非归 母净利润 5.58 亿元，同比+31.44%。2024 年第三季度实现营业总收入 18.59 亿元，同比+3.72%；实现归母净利润 2.89 亿元，同比+21.40%；实现扣非归 母净利润 2.75 亿元，同比+22.24%。 第三季度收入恢复正增长，中秋档坚果礼盒销售有所拖累。第二季度公司收入 同比-20.2%，主要系公司主动去化库存。库存去化帮助公司 7-8 月取得收入 较快增长，但 9 月份受到今年中秋档坚果礼盒销售下滑的影响，最终第三季 度收入同比+3.7%，前三季度收入同比+6.2%，较股权激励目标仍有一定的差 距。拆分品类看，第三季度瓜子收入同比增速近 10%，坚果同比下滑约 10%。 成本红利延续释放，第三季度毛利率修复。第三季度毛利率 33.1%，同比 +6.3pct，环比+8.1pct，主要受益于今 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the snack food sector, particularly in the sunflower seed and nut markets, with a stable performance and high dividend yield [3][15]. - The growth potential in the nut segment is significant, with the company benefiting from increasing domestic production and a shift in consumer preferences towards nut products [2][29]. - The company has a solid foundation in distribution channels and product innovation, which are expected to drive future growth [3][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily produces nut snacks and roasted seeds, with key products including various flavored sunflower seeds and mixed nuts [5][15]. - The company has expanded its market reach, selling products in nearly 50 countries and regions [15]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6,883.37 million yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue of 7,503.19 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 10.25% [4]. - The net profit for 2022 was 976 million yuan, with expectations of 987.64 million yuan for 2024, indicating a growth of 23.15% [4]. Market Potential - The snack food industry in China reached a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan in 2022, with a growth rate of 11.6% [29]. - The per capita consumption of snacks in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, suggesting substantial room for growth [29][31]. Product Segmentation - The company’s sunflower seed segment has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% from 2017 to 2022, while the nut segment has a CAGR of 45.68% during the same period [24]. - The company has successfully launched innovative products like the "Blue Bag" sunflower seeds, which have revitalized growth in the sunflower seed category [27][20]. Future Outlook - The company is exploring new growth avenues, with plans to introduce a third growth curve by 2025, potentially expanding its product categories significantly [26][3]. - The management's confidence is reflected in their high stock incentive targets, indicating a strong belief in the company's future performance [3][20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown improvement in revenue growth year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a focus on cost optimization leading to enhanced profitability [2][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 47.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.26 billion yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 18.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, and a net profit of 2.89 billion yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2024, reaching 33.11%, an increase of 6.31 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and increased sales scale [4] - The sales and management expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 7.86% and 3.94%, respectively, showing a year-on-year optimization [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15.57%, up 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [4] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of 17.9% and a 3-month performance of 29.0% [2] - As of October 25, 2024, the stock price was 33.18 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 23.67-38.72 yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for growth in the upcoming year, with expectations for strong performance during the New Year festival due to good channel inventory and planned marketing investments [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 75.41 billion yuan, 81.71 billion yuan, and 87.78 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 7% [5][6]

洽洽食品（002557.SZ）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 收入增速环比改善，关注春节旺季备货 2024 年 10 月 28 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报，2024 年 Q1-Q3 实现营业总收入/归母净 利润 47.58/6.26 亿元，同比+6.24%/23.79%；毛利率 30.25%，同比+4.81pcts； 归母净利率 13.16%，同比+1.87pcts。24Q3 实现营业总收入/归母净利润 18.59/2.89 亿元，同比+3.72%/21.40%。 ➢ 2024Q3 收入增速环比改善，礼赠旺季表现略不及预期。24Q3 公司实现 18.59 亿元收入，同比 3.72%，增速环比提高 24.0pcts。我们预估 24Q3 公司瓜 子品类增长较坚果品类更快，主因 9 月礼赠旺季受制于消费力下探，坚果礼盒销 售阶段性承压。公司 2024Q3 利润表现超预期，主要系期内瓜子原料成本环比回 落。从渠道端看，公司量贩零食渠道仍呈现相对景气，传统经销渠道则保持相对 稳健。截至 24H1，公司有 1470 个经销商，其中国内有 1362 个经销商客户、 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 10 月 25 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：33.18 元 洽洽食品（002557）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 利润弹性持续显现，期待 Q4 旺季表现 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入 47.6 亿元，同比增长 6.2%；实现归母净利润 6.3 亿元，同比增长 23.8%。其中 24Q3 实现营业收入 18.6 亿元，同比增长 3.7%；实现归母净利润 2.9 亿元，同比增长 21.4%。 渠道调整到位，期待旺季表现。Q2淡季公司消化渠道库存，为三季度营收修复 奠定基础，将为四季度年货节持续蓄力。葵花子通过加量不加价、再来一袋等 促销方式表现较好；坚果坚持以每日坚果、礼盒为主，壳坚果和风味坚果为辅 的"两主两辅"战略，9月坚果礼盒销售承受一定压力；培育薯片、薯条、花生、 豆类、坚果乳等品类。 成本红利持续体现，盈利能力保持提升。1、2024 前三季度毛利率 30.2%，同 比提升 4.8pp；24Q3 毛利率 33.1%，同比提升 6.3pp，主要由于原材料 ...

食品饮料/休闲食品 公 司 研 究 洽洽食品（002557.SZ） 2024 年 10 月 28 日 2024Q3 收入平稳微增，盈利能力同比改善 ——公司信息更新报告 /归母净利润分别为47.58/6.26 营收/归母净利润分别为 18.59/2.89 ）。收入利润符合预期。考虑成本下降及费用投放等 年盈利预测，预测 2024-2026 归 ）亿元（同比+23.3%/+10.9%/+12.9%）， ）元，当前股价对应 PE17.0/15.3/13.6 倍， 考虑到公司积极拓展第三增长曲线，维持"增持"评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | 投资评级：增持（维持） \n日期 | 2024/10/25 | 张宇光（分析师） ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 洽洽食品 (002557.SZ) 买入（维持评级） 买入（维持评级） 业绩简评 10 月 24 日公司发布 24 年三季报，24Q1-Q3 实现营收 47.58 亿元， 同比+6.24%；实现归母净利润 6.26 亿元，同比+23.79%；扣非净利 润 5.58 亿元，同比+31.44%。其中，24Q3 实现营收 18.59 亿元， 同比+3.72%；实现归母净利润 2.89 亿元，同比+21.4%；扣非净利 润 2.75 亿元，同比+22.25%。 经营分析 库存低位轻装上阵，Q3 具备边际改善。1）Q3 收入同比略有增长， 主要系瓜子小幅增长拉动，H1 公司已对蓝袋推广加量不加价活动， 迎合当下性价比消费趋势，预计蓝袋、打手瓜子表现较好。坚果因 中秋礼盒备货弱于预期，具备小幅拖累，预计 Q4 旺季在性价比礼 盒加持下具备明显改善。2）分渠道看，预计在零食量贩、会员店 等渠道表现较好；零食量贩一方面加速开店，另一方面合作 SKU 增 加。传统经销渠道则受益于网点下沉，售点数量不断扩张。 成本红利体现，毛利率显著优化。24Q3 毛利率/净利率分别为 33.11%/15.56%， ...

洽洽食品（002557.SZ） 休闲食品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 26 日 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------------|-----------| | | | | 总股本(百万股 ) | 507.00 | | | | | 流通股本(百万股 ) | 505.92 | | 市价(元 ) | 33.18 | | 市值(百万元 ) | 16,822.34 | | 流通市值(百万元 ) | 16,786.45 | 收入增速承压，成本红利延续 ——洽洽食品 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------------|------------|------------|------------| | ...