证券研究报告|公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 蒙娜丽莎（002918.SZ） 行业竞争压力仍存，经销渠道持续提升 中游制造/建材 公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 46.31 亿元，同比下降 21.79%；归母净利润 1.25 亿元，同比下降 53.06%；扣非后归母净利润 1.03 亿元，同比下滑 57.53%；基 本 EPS 为 0.31 元/股，同比减少 51.56%；加权平均 ROE 为 3.64%，同比下降 4.31pct。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：8.74 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 415 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 219 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1.9 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 8.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.7 | | 资产负债率 | 52.6% | | 主要股东 | 萧华 | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -8 0 -8 相对表现 -5 5 -16 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Apr/24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, reflecting the challenging conditions in the ceramic industry due to the real estate market adjustment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million yuan, down 53.1% year-on-year - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 100 million yuan, a decline of 57.5% year-on-year - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.0% year-on-year, with a net loss of 20 million yuan [1]. Industry Context - The ceramic industry is under pressure, with a 12.18% decline in national ceramic tile production to 5.91 billion square meters in 2024 - The number of large-scale enterprises in the building ceramic industry decreased to 993, down by 29 from 2023 - The number of production lines in the national building ceramic sector fell to 2,193, a reduction from 2,485 in 2022, indicating an exit rate of 11.75% [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from building ceramic products was 4.55 billion yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year - The volume and price of products decreased by 16.3% and 7.5% respectively - Revenue from distribution and strategic engineering channels was 3.54 billion yuan and 1.09 billion yuan, down 7.5% and 48.0% year-on-year, with gross margins of 25.7% and 32.6% respectively [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin was 27.3%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 6.4%, 9.5%, and 0.2% respectively, with management expenses increasing by 1.9 percentage points - The company recorded asset and credit impairment losses totaling 150 million yuan, impacting profitability and reducing the net profit margin to 2.7%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency through a comprehensive channel layout and optimizing management practices - It is focusing on developing new retail and integrated market businesses while establishing deep partnerships with major decoration companies - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures are being systematically implemented to optimize channel operations [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the tile industry with a robust channel layout and strong product competitiveness - Given the ongoing competitive pressures in the tile industry, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 201 million, 249 million, and 285 million yuan respectively - The company is expected to maintain a steady market share, with a target price of 10.16 yuan based on a 21x PE for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 10.16 CNY, while the current price is 8.84 CNY [4][8]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 4.63 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%, and a net profit of 125 million CNY, down 53.1% [2][4]. - The company is actively adjusting its customer structure to mitigate risks, particularly in response to the challenges faced by the ceramics industry due to the real estate sector's downturn [8]. - The company has implemented measures to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, which are expected to improve channel management and overall competitiveness [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -21.8%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 4.76 billion CNY, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 2.8% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 was 125 million CNY, with a projected increase to 201 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 60.8% [4]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 27.3%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating profit is expected to improve in the following years [8]. Market and Industry Context - The ceramics industry is facing increased competition and a decline in production, with national ceramic tile output in 2024 at 5.91 billion square meters, down 12.18% from 2023 [8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the tile industry, with a well-established channel layout and strong product competitiveness, which is expected to help it gain market share despite the challenging environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - Mona Lisa has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit over the past three years, with 2024 marking the largest drop in revenue to date [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In 2021, Mona Lisa achieved nearly 7 billion yuan in revenue, but this figure fell to 4.631 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year decrease of 21.79% [1][2]. - The company's revenue breakdown for 2023 shows that distribution channel revenue was 3.541 billion yuan, while strategic engineering channel revenue was 1.09 billion yuan, reflecting declines of 7.46% and 47.96% respectively [2]. - The reliance on engineering channels has decreased over the years, with the revenue share from distribution channels increasing from 57.87% in 2022 to 76.47% in 2023 [2]. Employee Count and Compensation - The total number of employees at Mona Lisa has decreased by 13.18% from the previous year, dropping from 5,129 in 2023 to 4,453 in 2024 [1][6]. - Despite the decline in revenue and employee count, the total compensation for the company's directors and senior management increased to 18.6224 million yuan in 2024, up from 17.9096 million yuan in 2023 [5][6]. - The four controlling shareholders received a combined total of 9.0032 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 48.35% of the total compensation for directors and senior management [5]. Management Compensation Trends - The compensation for some key executives has increased, with the highest increase seen in the Secretary of the Board, whose salary rose from 2.5975 million yuan in 2023 to 2.7570 million yuan in 2024 [4]. - The overall trend indicates that while some executives received raises, others experienced salary reductions, particularly those who left or changed positions [4][5].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's consolidated revenue was CNY 463.08 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21.79% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.50 million, down 53.06% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the real estate industry adjustment and increased market competition [2] Trade Environment Impact - The export volume of ceramic tiles in 2024 was 599 million square meters, a decline of 2.11% year-on-year, with export value dropping to USD 3.21 billion, down 27.8% [3] - The average export price fell to USD 5.36 per square meter, a decrease of 26.17% year-on-year, indicating a simultaneous drop in export volume, value, and price [3] Sales Structure and Cost Management - The revenue from distribution channels increased to 76.47%, while strategic engineering channel revenue accounted for 23.53% [3] - The sales volume decreased by 16.34% year-on-year, reflecting the challenges in maintaining sales amidst a declining market [3] - The manufacturing cost of building ceramic products was CNY 3.29 billion, down 20.72% from the previous year, with direct material costs decreasing by 19.34% and fuel costs by 24.37% [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure from reduced market demand, implementation of dual carbon energy policies, and changes in the trade environment in 2025 [4] - The ceramic industry is expected to face challenges but also opportunities for transformation and high-quality development driven by urbanization and renovation of existing buildings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company faced significant pressure in its 2024 performance, with a notable decline in revenue and profit, while continuing to optimize its channel structure [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 125 million yuan, down 53.06% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of 1.059 billion yuan, a decline of 23.05% year-on-year, with a net loss of 16 million yuan, although this represented a narrowing of losses [1] - The comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 27.3%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.81%, down 2.55 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 2: Business Segments - Revenue from various product segments in 2024 included 3.673 billion yuan from porcelain tiles, 250 million yuan from non-porcelain tiles, and 559 million yuan from ceramic boards, with year-on-year declines of 18.80%, 54.25%, and 18.70% respectively [2] - The gross margins for these segments were 27.18%, 21.51%, and 34.91%, with changes of -3.47, +1.67, and +3.96 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Channel Structure and Cash Flow - The company’s revenue from distribution and engineering channels in 2024 was 3.541 billion yuan and 1.090 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 7.46% and 47.96% respectively, with the distribution channel's revenue share increasing by 11.84 percentage points to 76.47% [2] - Cash flow from operations (CFO) for 2024 was 807 million yuan, a decrease of 127 million yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 115.02%, up 7.32 percentage points year-on-year [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, 240 million yuan, and 320 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a cautious outlook for growth [4] - The company is viewed as having significant long-term growth potential, particularly if industry demand rebounds, which could enhance its market share [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to face continued pressure on its performance in 2024, with a projected revenue of 4.63 billion yuan, down 21.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 124.96 million yuan, down 53.06% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is optimizing its channel structure, with a significant reduction in engineering business, which is expected to decrease accounts receivable impairment risks [2][3]. - The company is anticipated to improve its profitability and cash flow, with a cash flow from operations (CFO) of 807 million yuan in 2024, despite a decrease from the previous year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 46.31 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.25 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in demand for tiles and a strategic decision to forgo certain low-margin projects [1]. - The revenue breakdown for different product lines in 2024 shows a decline in sales for porcelain tiles and ceramic boards, with respective revenues of 3.67 billion yuan and 559 million yuan, down 18.80% and 18.70% year-on-year [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 27.3%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points from the previous year, while the operating profit margin was significantly impacted by the decline in revenue [3][5]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to recover gradually, with expected net profits of 190 million yuan in 2025, 240 million yuan in 2026, and 320 million yuan in 2027, indicating a potential rebound in profitability [4][5]. - The report highlights the potential for market share growth if industry demand improves, positioning the company favorably in the long term [4].

Core Viewpoint - Mona Lisa Group is facing an unprecedented survival crisis, with significant declines in revenue and net profit over the past three years, primarily due to overcapacity, bad debts, and cash flow issues [1][2][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 4.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22%, and net profit was 125 million yuan, down 53% [1] - The net profit margin fell to 2.7%, the lowest since its listing, while the gross profit margin decreased to 27.32%, the second lowest since listing [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The ceramic industry is experiencing a severe downturn, with national ceramic tile production in 2024 at 5.91 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.18% [2] - The industry faces overcapacity, with an annual production capacity of 12.2 billion square meters but actual production around 6 billion square meters, leading to frequent production line stoppages [2] Group 3: Accounts Receivable Issues - The company has signed debt-to-equity agreements with real estate companies amounting to 1.325 billion yuan, alongside 892 million yuan in uncollected accounts receivable [3] - As of August 2024, the company recorded a bad debt loss of 118 million yuan, with concerns about further impairment risks as real estate debt restructuring progresses [3] Group 4: Distribution Network Challenges - The company's distribution network has been severely impacted, with 2024 seeing a significant decline in new store openings and dealer expansion [4] - The accounts receivable turnover rate dropped to 6.14, the second lowest in history, exacerbating bad debt risks and cash flow pressures [4] Group 5: Debt Crisis - By the end of 2024, the company's debt-to-asset ratio rose to 52.59%, with total interest-bearing debt reaching 1.906 billion yuan, accounting for 57% of net assets [5] - The company faces significant short-term repayment pressures, with 451 million yuan in non-current liabilities due within one year and 279 million yuan in short-term loans [5] Group 6: Strategic Challenges - The company attempted strategic transformation with a focus on high-end products, but these efforts have not reversed the downward trend amid industry challenges [6] - The structural contradictions in the ceramic industry, such as overcapacity versus shrinking demand, highlight the need for companies to find new growth drivers [7] Group 7: Future Outlook - The company's ability to recover from its crisis will depend on its strategic adjustments, debt restructuring, and technological innovations [8] - The current situation serves as a warning for all companies in the industry, emphasizing the necessity for innovation to overcome the challenges of overcapacity [8]

Core Viewpoint - Mona Lisa has faced a continuous decline in performance for three consecutive years, with significant drops in both revenue and net profit due to challenges in the real estate sector and intensified competition in the ceramic industry [1][5]. Company Performance - In 2024, Mona Lisa reported revenue of 4.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, and a net profit of 125 million yuan, down 53% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's net profit margin for 2024 was 2.7%, the lowest since its listing, while the gross profit margin was 27.32%, the second lowest in its history [6]. Industry Challenges - The ceramic industry is experiencing severe overcapacity, with a national ceramic tile production capacity of 12.2 billion square meters and an actual output of around 6 billion square meters, resulting in a utilization rate of less than 50% [1]. - The overall production of ceramic tiles in China decreased by 12.18% in 2024, with a total output of 5.91 billion square meters [1]. Financial Strain - Mona Lisa's financial situation is precarious, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 52.59% and significant short-term liabilities, including 4.51 billion yuan in non-current liabilities due within one year [7]. - The company has 1.806 billion yuan in receivables that are at risk, including 1.325 billion yuan in agreements with real estate companies for debt settlement [5][7]. Market Competition - The ceramic market is facing intensified competition, with a 12.8% decline in revenue for the main business of ceramic enterprises in the first eleven months of 2024, totaling 287.1 billion yuan [3]. - The production of ceramic tiles and sanitary ceramics has seen a year-on-year decline of 2.8% and 1.2%, respectively, indicating a challenging market environment [3]. Operational Challenges - The company has reduced sales to high-risk real estate clients and is facing difficulties in expanding its dealer network, reflecting a lack of confidence in future market conditions [5]. - The cash flow situation is worsening, with a receivables turnover rate of 6.14, the second lowest in history, exacerbating the risk of bad debts [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4][7][23] Core Views - The company has prioritized risk control and has seen continuous improvement in operational quality despite facing challenges in the market [5][6][7] - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 4.631 billion yuan, down 21.79% year-on-year, and net profit at 125 million yuan, down 53.06% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its distribution channels and has seen a shift towards more stable distribution revenue, which accounted for 76.47% of total revenue in 2024 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved operating revenue of 46.31 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 21.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.25 billion yuan, down 53.06% year-on-year [5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 10.59 billion yuan, a decline of 23.05% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.16 billion yuan [5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 27.32%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Operational Strategy - The company is actively adjusting its channel structure to mitigate risks and has implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [6][7] - The focus for 2025 includes optimizing production management, enhancing product quality, and increasing new product development efforts [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns despite challenging market conditions [6][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from an improved industry landscape and demand recovery, with projected net profits of 242 million yuan, 338 million yuan, and 417 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15.1 for 2025, indicating potential for growth as operational efficiencies improve [7]