Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80% to 101%, with a median estimate of 3.74 billion yuan (yoy +91%) [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from 290 million to 690 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 58% to 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 76% to 42% [4]. - The decline in Q4 performance is attributed to asset impairment provisions totaling 320 million yuan for certain production facilities, a significant drop in R22 prices, and reduced profitability and sales in petrochemical materials and basic chemical products [4][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 27.96 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.75 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 91.6% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.39 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.80 yuan by 2027 [5]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 17.5% in 2025 to 22.5% in 2027 [5]. Market and Segment Analysis - The company’s refrigerant sales volume for Q4 2025 is estimated at 112,400 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.8% [6]. - The average selling price of refrigerants in Q4 2025 is expected to be 37,307 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% [6]. - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the upward price trend in refrigerants due to a tightening global supply and increasing downstream demand [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the power generation sector, including Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and China Power Investment, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, aimed at addressing the challenges of the new energy transition and ensuring the development of regulating power sources [1]. - The notification highlights the need for a balanced approach to "new energy consumption, power security, and regulating power source profitability," which is crucial for the construction of a new power system [1]. - The report emphasizes the differentiated optimization of capacity pricing for four types of regulating power sources, including independent new energy storage and pumped storage, to ensure fair competition and adequate compensation for capacity [1]. Summary by Sections Capacity Price Mechanism - The notification introduces a differentiated capacity pricing mechanism for various regulating power sources, allowing local authorities to set prices based on factors such as coal power capacity standards and peak contribution [1]. - The policy aims to ensure that the capacity value of regulating power sources is adequately recognized and compensated, addressing previous issues of insufficient cost coverage [1]. Unified Compensation Mechanism - A key breakthrough in the notification is the establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism that standardizes compensation across different types of power generation units, promoting rational investment and resource allocation [1]. - This mechanism aims to avoid inefficient resource allocation by linking compensation to the actual contribution of each unit to the power system [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment based on their integrated operations and stable profit potential, including Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng [1]. - It also highlights the potential for hydropower companies to benefit from increased output and stable dividends, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 3.54 billion to 3.94 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80% to 101%, with a median estimate of 3.74 billion yuan (yoy +91%) [4]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for Q4 2025, with estimates ranging from 290 million to 690 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 58% to 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 76% to 42% [4]. - The decline in Q4 performance is attributed to asset impairment provisions totaling 320 million yuan, a significant drop in R22 prices, and reduced profitability and sales in petrochemical materials and basic chemical products [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 27.96 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.3% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 3.75 billion yuan for 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase of 91.6% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.39 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.80 yuan by 2027 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 17.5% in 2025 to 22.5% in 2027 [5]. Market and Segment Analysis - The average price of R22 has significantly decreased, impacting the company's refrigerant segment, while the prices of mainstream third-generation refrigerants have continued to rise [6]. - The company sold 112,400 tons of refrigerants in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 47.8% [6]. - The sales price for refrigerants in Q4 2025 was 37,307 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13% due to the drop in R22 prices [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The dye industry is expected to experience an upward trend that may exceed market expectations, with price increases for various types of dyes ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 RMB. Key companies to watch include Zhejiang Longsheng, Runtu Co., Jinchicken Co., and Jihua Group [2] - The PVC industry is accelerating its transition to mercury-free production, leading to the exit of small and medium-sized capacities. The price of PVC is anticipated to have upward recovery potential due to supply contraction and stable demand expectations. Companies to focus on include Xinjiang Tianye, Junzheng Group, Ordos, and Beiyuan Group [2] - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing significant catalysts, with SpaceX planning to deploy up to 1 million satellites for large-scale AI inference and data centers, indicating a competitive acceleration in global space resources [2] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between 55-70 USD per barrel. Coal prices are stabilizing, and natural gas costs are expected to decline as the U.S. accelerates its export facility construction [3][5] - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in PPI, with a year-on-year decrease of -1.9% and a month-on-month increase of +0.2%. The manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3%, indicating some volatility in manufacturing operations [5] Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy across four main areas: 1. Textile and apparel chain, with a focus on companies like Luxi Chemical and Tongkun Co. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with companies such as Hailir and Yunnan Yuntianhua highlighted. 3. Export-related chemical products, particularly in fluorine chemicals and MDI, with companies like Juhua and Wanhua Chemical recommended. 4. Companies benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as Biyuan Chemical and Xuefeng Technology [2] - Key materials for growth include semiconductor materials, panel materials, and lithium battery materials, with companies like Yake Technology and Xinhuan Technology noted for their potential [2] Company Valuation - Selected companies in the agricultural chemicals sector include: - Hailir: "Increase" rating, market cap of 49.96 billion RMB, projected net profit of 4.45 billion RMB for 2026 [18] - Yangnong Chemical: "Buy" rating, market cap of 325.88 billion RMB, projected net profit of 19.26 billion RMB for 2027 [18] - In the fertilizer and chlor-alkali sector, companies like Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group are also rated "Increase" with significant market caps and projected profits [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent issuance of the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Generation Side" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, aimed at addressing the challenges in the development of adjustable power sources amid the transition to a new energy system [2]. - The report highlights the need for a refined capacity pricing mechanism to ensure the economic viability of coal, gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage sources, which are essential for balancing the supply and demand of renewable energy [2]. - The report emphasizes the differentiation in capacity pricing for four types of adjustable power sources, aiming to optimize revenue logic and ensure fair competition across regions [2]. - A key breakthrough is the establishment of a unified compensation mechanism for reliable capacity, which standardizes compensation across different types of power generation units based on their peak supply capabilities [2]. - The report suggests that the improved pricing mechanism will stabilize investment expectations in the power sector, ensuring a balance between energy security and the integration of renewable energy [2]. Summary by Sections Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The report outlines the necessity of improving the capacity pricing mechanism to address the issues of supply-demand mismatch and insufficient adaptation of existing mechanisms [2]. - It identifies three major problems with the current system, including declining utilization hours for coal power and the lack of cost constraints for pumped storage pricing [2]. Differentiated Pricing Strategy - The report details the differentiated optimization of capacity pricing for adjustable power sources, allowing local authorities to set prices based on specific factors such as discharge duration and peak contribution [2]. - It introduces a "new and old distinction" strategy for pumped storage, maintaining existing pricing for older plants while implementing a unified pricing mechanism for new projects [2]. Unified Compensation Mechanism - The report introduces a reliable capacity compensation mechanism that standardizes compensation across different generation units, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [2]. - This mechanism aims to link revenue to the actual contribution of each type of power generation unit, encouraging efficiency and technological improvements [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including coal power companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, as well as hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [2][3].

行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 02 月 01 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 业绩预告彰显板块景气度，建议关注节前促销 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20260201 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本阶段化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2026 年 1 月 23 日至 2026 年 1 月 30 日期间， 申万美容护理指数下滑 3.8%，表现弱于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 3.6%，弱于 申万 A 指 1.9pct；申万个护用品指数下滑 4.6%，弱于申万 A 指数 3.0pct。 ⚫ 周观点：业绩预告彰显板块景气度 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the "Walsh trade" on market risk appetite, indicating a potential shift in global asset allocation and market style due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has already affected market risk preferences [9][11]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.59% this week, with notable sector rotations observed, where previously high-performing sectors like military and power equipment corrected, while previously lagging sectors such as oil and gas, real estate, food and beverage, and communications rebounded [5][8]. - Key performing sectors this week included space photovoltaic (Liancheng Numerical Control +21.73%), seed industry (Qiule Seed +22.55%, Kangnong Seed +13.5%), and optical communication (Hengdong Light +14.83%, Gebijia +19.72%) [5][8]. Group 2 - The report notes an acceleration in new stock issuances, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and a total of 123 companies having released performance forecasts by January 30, 2026, indicating a need for expansion in the North Exchange due to its limited number of companies and small market capitalization [10][24]. - The median net profit forecast for companies in the North Exchange is over 80 million yuan, with several companies, including Fujida and Jilin Carbon Valley, expected to see over 30% year-on-year growth in Q4 2025 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors with clear industry trends and catalysts, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and optical communication, while monitoring the effects of the "Walsh trade" on interest rates and small-cap stocks [11][24]. Group 3 - The North Exchange's trading volume reached 5.961 billion shares this week, reflecting a 9.27% increase, while the trading value was 143.655 billion yuan, up 8.82% from the previous week [14][23]. - The report indicates that 43 stocks rose while 249 fell, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17, with notable gainers including Keli Co. and Qiule Seed [33][34]. - The report also details the performance of newly listed stocks, with Nongda Technology and Meidele experiencing significant first-day gains of 111.56% and 161.46%, respectively [24][27]. Group 4 - The report outlines the new three-board situation, with 14 new companies listed and 6 delisted, alongside a planned financing of 150 million yuan, which was completed at 161 million yuan [46][47]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of the North Exchange's stock performance and the implications of new listings on market dynamics [10][24].

Group 1 - The "Walsh trade" is impacting risk preferences, with a notable focus on the potential reversal of the "weak dollar" trade, which could significantly affect global asset allocation and market styles [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.59%, while daily trading volume saw a slight increase [11][17] - Key sectors that performed well this week include space photovoltaic, seed industry, non-ferrous metals, and optical communication, with notable stock performances from companies like Liancheng CNC and Gongbika [11][12] Group 2 - New stock issuances have accelerated, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and over 120 companies releasing performance forecasts [13][27] - As of January 30, 2026, 123 companies on the North Exchange have issued performance forecasts, with a median net profit forecast exceeding 80 million yuan [13] - The report suggests that the North Exchange needs to expand its number of companies and improve the quality of new stock issuances in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 83.89 times, with a median of 41.26 times, indicating a decline in valuation metrics [23][24] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 5.961 billion shares, with a trading value of 143.655 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.27% and 8.82% respectively [26][29] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 43 stocks rising and 249 falling, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17 [36]

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 两端改善趋势——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 资金面因素逐步出清，看好非银板 块投资价值 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2026/1/26-2026/1/30） 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 《25 年业绩高增态势确立，融资保证金比 例旨在引导回归价值投资——券商板块跟 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 踪》 2026/01/15 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in sales growth due to warm weather and delayed Spring Festival, with outdoor categories and high-cost performance brands leading the growth [3]. - Anta's main brand retail sales saw a low single-digit decline year-on-year, while FILA brand showed a mid-single-digit growth, and other brands like Descente and KOLON SPORT experienced significant growth [3]. - Li Ning's overall channel revenue declined in low single digits, but the decline rate narrowed compared to the previous quarter, benefiting from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [3]. - Xtep's main brand revenue remained flat, with a low single-digit growth for the year, while its subsidiary Saucony saw over 30% growth [3]. - 361 Degrees continued to lead the industry with a 10% growth in both adult and children's apparel, and high double-digit growth in e-commerce [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Anta's main brand offline discount rate was approximately 7.1, with a stock-to-sales ratio slightly above 5 times [3]. - Li Ning's discount rates deepened in December, with a stock-to-sales ratio of about 4-5 months [3]. - Xtep maintained a stable discount rate of 7-7.5, with a stock-to-sales ratio of about 4.5 months [3]. - 361 Degrees' discount rate remained stable at 7-7.1, with a stock-to-sales ratio in the range of 4.5-5 times [3]. Channel Development - Anta opened around 150 Champion series stores, achieving over 1 billion in revenue, and launched over 300 lighthouse stores with significantly higher productivity [3]. - Li Ning introduced new pop-up stores and plans to open flagship stores, receiving positive sales feedback [3]. - Xtep opened its first gold standard leading store and plans to add 20-30 more, with a strong performance in outlet channels [3]. - 361 Degrees expanded its super brand stores, exceeding expectations with a total of 126 stores by the end of 2025 [3]. Product Focus - Anta's outdoor brands performed well, with Descente becoming the third 10 billion brand, and KOLON SPORT showing substantial growth [3]. - Li Ning's outdoor category grew rapidly, applying advanced technologies to new professional sports products [3]. - Xtep's running category saw double-digit growth, extending technology to outdoor products [3]. - 361 Degrees accelerated its One Way layout, opening new stores covering professional skiing and outdoor products [3]. Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be significant for events, with brands planning to increase marketing and product investments [3]. - Li Ning announced its collaboration with the Chinese Olympic Committee for the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics [3]. - Anta plans to increase brand marketing and product investment, which may lead to temporary fluctuations in profit margins [3]. - 361 Degrees announced a strategic partnership with the Asian Olympic Council, becoming the official supplier for the 2025 WTCC [3]. - Xtep focuses on core running business and continues to enhance its brand image through event marketing [3].