建筑装饰 2026 年 02 月 23 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 推动投资止跌回稳，关注节后开复工效果 看好 ——申万宏源建筑双周报（20260209-20260222） 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+0.37%，沪深 300 指 数+0.36%，相对收益为+0.01pct。双周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为专 业工程（+2.47%）、生态园林（+1.99%）、设计咨询（+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that new home sales during the Spring Festival period saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a total of 9.3 million square meters sold across 16 major cities [3][13]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is improving, driven by recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing local government debt risks [3]. - The report emphasizes that the fundamental bottom of the real estate sector is approaching, with expectations for quality companies to recover profits more quickly and flexibly [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities during the week before the Spring Festival totaled 192.3 million square meters, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week, but an increase of 56.6% compared to the average weekly sales this year [4]. - In February, new home sales in 34 cities increased by 88.5% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing a 96.8% increase [9]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities was reported at 8,870.4 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [54]. 2. Policy News - The report notes that the government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with various local policies being introduced to optimize housing supply and manage existing stock [3]. - Specific measures include the promotion of REITs in commercial real estate, with 12 applications submitted recently [3]. 3. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies in January showed mixed results, with China Jinmao reporting a 13.6% increase in sales, while other companies like Poly Developments saw a 13.3% decrease [3]. - The report highlights the performance of the property management sector, which has shown resilience compared to the broader market [3]. 4. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.69%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 0.36% [3]. - The report suggests that the current valuation levels for quality real estate companies are at historical lows, making them attractive for investment [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the semiconductor and AI-related sectors, with strong revenue growth expected in 2026 [1][5]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing robust demand, particularly in AI servers, HPC, and cloud data centers, contributing to a significant revenue increase for TSMC, which reported NT$401.26 billion in January 2026, a year-on-year growth of 36.8% [1][5]. - The report highlights that advanced packaging capacity remains tight, which is a critical factor supporting revenue growth [5]. - Companies like Xinxia and JY Electronics are also seeing substantial revenue increases due to the demand for AI-related applications and advanced testing requirements [1][8]. Summary by Sections AI Sector - TSMC's revenue in January 2026 reached NT$401.26 billion, driven by strong demand for AI servers and HPC, maintaining high utilization rates in advanced processes [1][5]. - Xinxia's revenue reached NT$9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, reflecting the growing importance of server management chips in AI server architectures [7][8]. Advanced Packaging and Testing - JY Electronics reported NT$33.7 billion in revenue, a 41% year-on-year increase, driven by the complexity of next-generation GPU testing and increased demand for AI ASICs [8]. - Chroma ATE's revenue reached NT$38.3 billion, a 72.1% increase, supported by rising power testing demands and advanced packaging capacity expansion [8]. Semiconductor Manufacturing - UMC, VIS, and PSMC reported revenue increases of 5%, 18%, and 26% respectively, with PSMC achieving a 39-month revenue high due to rising memory wafer prices [15]. - Nanya Technology, Winbond, and Macronix reported significant revenue growth of 608%, 94%, and 51% respectively, driven by structural supply-demand imbalances in the memory market [16]. EMS Sector - Foxconn, Wistron, and Quanta reported revenues of NT$730.04 billion, NT$2,283.7 billion, and NT$2,308.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 152%, and 62% [12]. - Wistron's chairman emphasized that AI-related orders in 2026 will significantly exceed those of the previous year, indicating a strong outlook for the EMS sector [12]. Passive Components - YAGEO reported NT$130.3 billion in revenue, a 27% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from AI-related applications and pre-holiday stocking in Greater China [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its low initial valuation and moderate subscription threshold, suggesting active participation in the IPO [26][31]. Core Insights - The company, HIFIMAN, is a leading player in the high-end audio market, focusing on high-fidelity headphones and audio products, with a strong global brand presence and a comprehensive multi-channel sales system [5][8]. - The company has demonstrated significant revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue of 227 million yuan and a net profit of 66.52 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.49% and 35.72% respectively over the past three years [9][12]. - The global headphone market is expanding, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for high-quality audio products, with a projected market size growth from 71.5 billion USD in 2023 to 163.8 billion USD by 2030 [17][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - HIFIMAN, established in April 2011, is a prominent high-end audio brand in China, focusing on the design, research, production, and sales of audio products under its own brand [8]. - The company has a global sales network, with over 40 domestic distributors and more than 100 international distributors, primarily targeting developed markets such as the US, Europe, and Japan [5][8]. 2. Issuance Plan - The IPO will utilize a direct pricing method with an issue price of 19.71 yuan per share, aiming to raise approximately 207 million yuan, representing 21.5% of the total shares post-issue [14][12]. - The expected free float ratio post-issue is 22.98%, with a low proportion of existing shares, making it attractive for investors [14][12]. 3. Industry Situation - China has established itself as a key manufacturing base for the audio-visual industry, with significant growth opportunities driven by AI and technological advancements [16][19]. - The global audio industry is characterized by a dual structure of brand and manufacturing, with Chinese manufacturers dominating the core production segments [18][19]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses strong technical research and development capabilities, focusing on core audio technologies and proprietary components, which enhance product competitiveness [20][21]. - HIFIMAN has built a robust brand reputation and extensive sales channels, allowing it to effectively serve global markets and maintain high profit margins [21][20]. 5. Comparable Companies - HIFIMAN's financial metrics, including a projected gross margin of 70.1% for 2024, position it favorably compared to its peers in the industry, which typically have lower margins [23][27].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant asset restructuring and stock incentive plans as a means to enhance the integration advantages of companies within the industry [2][5] - In January 2026, a total of 11 major asset restructuring plans were announced, predominantly in the non-ferrous metals sector, with over 70% currently in the board proposal stage [8][19] - Notable cases include Hunan Gold's acquisition of 100% stakes in Zhongnan Smelting and Golden Tianyue, aimed at enhancing resource integration and addressing resource shortages [19][24] Group 2 - The report indicates that the stock incentive plans are primarily concentrated in the machinery sector, with most incentives representing 1% to 2% of the total share capital [36][32] - In January 2026, 34 new stock incentive plans were released, with approximately 91% of the plans already implemented [32][36] - Companies such as Guangyun Da and Anlian Ruishi have notable stock incentive plans, with proportions of 8.8% and 3.2% of total share capital, respectively [45][46] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the regulatory support from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for mergers and acquisitions, which is expected to optimize resource allocation and enhance industry concentration [5][2] - The report tracks the progress of significant asset restructuring and stock incentive plans on a monthly basis, providing insights into market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [2][5] - The focus on horizontal integration in mergers indicates a strategic shift towards consolidating market positions and enhancing competitive advantages [8][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI and HPC sectors, indicating a strong demand that supports revenue growth [2][5]. Core Insights - TSMC reported a record revenue of NT$401.26 billion in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%, driven by strong demand in AI servers, HPC, and cloud data centers [2][5]. - The advanced packaging capacity remains tight, which is a key factor supporting revenue growth [5]. - The report highlights that the AI sector continues to drive demand, with companies like Xinxia and JY Electronics also reporting significant revenue increases [2][5][20]. Summary by Sections AI Sector - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to the sustained demand for AI servers and advanced process technologies, maintaining high utilization rates [5]. - Xinxia's revenue reached NT$900 million in January 2026, up 28.5% year-on-year, reflecting the strong demand for server management chips [7]. - JY Electronics reported a revenue of NT$3.37 billion, a 41% increase year-on-year, driven by the rising complexity and demand for AI-related testing [8]. Mature Process - UMC, World Advanced, and PSMC reported revenues of NT$20.86 billion, NT$4.01 billion, and NT$4.62 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 18%, and 26% [16]. - PSMC's revenue reached a 39-month high, driven by rising prices in memory wafer foundry and increased demand for logic foundry [16]. Storage - Nanya Technology, Winbond, and Macronix reported revenues of NT$15.31 billion, NT$11.78 billion, and NT$3.02 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 608%, 94%, and 51% [17]. - Nanya indicated that various DRAM products may remain tight due to limited new capacity, particularly DDR4 and LPDDR4 [17]. End-Side Chips - MediaTek's revenue was NT$46.98 billion, down 8% year-on-year, with expectations of a significant decline in mobile terminal demand due to rising costs [18]. - The Smart Edge business is expected to grow, with data center ASIC revenue projected to exceed USD 1 billion in 2026 [20]. Passive Components - Yageo reported a revenue of NT$13.03 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from AI-related applications [20].

Group 1 - The report highlights that in January 2026, there were 11 major asset restructuring plans announced, predominantly in the non-ferrous metals industry, with over 70% currently in the board proposal stage [10][19]. - Notable cases include Hunan Gold's plan to acquire 100% stakes in Zhongnan Smelting and Golden Tianyue, which aims to enhance its integrated advantages by consolidating mining and smelting operations [19][24]. - Another significant case is Yingfang Micro's acquisition of 100% stakes in Shanghai Xiaokeli and Fujide China, which is expected to strengthen its semiconductor distribution business and improve profitability [25]. Group 2 - The report indicates that in January 2026, 34 new equity incentive plans were released, with the mechanical equipment industry leading in the number of plans [37]. - Approximately 91% of the equity incentive plans published in the past year have begun implementation, with most plans concentrated in the 1% to 2% range of total share capital [32][37]. - Companies of interest include Guangyun Da with an incentive ratio of 8.8%, and Anlian Ruishi with 3.2%, indicating a strong commitment to incentivizing core talent [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [8]. Core Insights - The company has released its 2025 performance forecast, which aligns with expectations, projecting a total revenue of 429.7 to 466.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% to 26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 49.7 to 54.0 billion yuan, also reflecting a growth of 16% to 26% [4][8]. - The revenue growth is driven by the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle sector and automation solutions, with the company focusing on enhancing its core technology and product upgrades [8]. - The report notes a slight decrease in profit growth compared to revenue growth due to increased R&D expenditures aimed at strategic new business areas such as humanoid robots and digital energy [8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For 2025, the company anticipates total revenue of 44,463 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20%. The net profit is projected at 5,144 million yuan, also showing a growth of 20% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 1.90 yuan, with a gross margin of 28.1% and a return on equity (ROE) of 16% [7]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 51.44 billion yuan, down from the previous estimate of 56.15 billion yuan, reflecting a more conservative outlook on growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is poised for growth, with strong pricing power and an improving industry landscape. It has been restructuring its revenue sources, significantly increasing the share of non-residential and overseas income [5][8]. - The waterproofing industry has undergone significant changes over the past five years, with a shift in demand structure and an increase in market concentration. The company is expected to benefit from these trends [8][43]. - The company's financial performance is projected to recover, with expected revenue growth and improved profit margins in the coming years [6][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1996, the company specializes in comprehensive waterproofing solutions, covering various sectors including construction waterproofing, civil materials, and energy solutions. It has participated in major national projects [18]. - The company has a stable governance structure, with concentrated ownership among key stakeholders [20]. Industry Changes - The demand structure in the waterproofing industry has shifted, with non-residential applications gaining importance and the share of second-hand housing transactions increasing significantly [44][50]. - The industry has seen a significant reduction in competition, with market consolidation occurring faster than in other segments of the real estate chain [54]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to recover from a projected decline in 2025, with estimates of 6.22 billion yuan in 2025, followed by growth to 6.67 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.16 billion yuan in 2027 [6][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve, with a forecasted increase to 28.1% in 2026 and 29.7% in 2027, reflecting the company's focus on high-margin products [6][10]. Investment Analysis - The company's valuation is currently below that of comparable companies in the consumer building materials sector, suggesting potential for upside as the market recovers [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong pricing power and willingness to increase prices, which could enhance profitability as market conditions improve [8][11].