[table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) 本报告导读： 关税博弈持续，美元资产波动中显现配置机遇，芯片成为本轮中美博弈重要抓手， 新规将芯片原产地认定为流片地。华为云推出 384 超节点，看好国内 AI 进展加速。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.14 关税博弈，海外资产波动中显现新机遇 [Table_Industry] 海外科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——海外科技行业 2025 年第 14 期 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880523110003 [Table_Summary] 大盘行情上，（2025.4.6-2025.4.12）恒生指数下跌 8.47%，恒生科技 指数下跌 7.77%，道琼斯工业指数上涨 4.95%，纳斯达克指数上涨 7.29%。 关税博弈持续，美元资产走弱，波动中显现配置机遇。中美关税博 弈持续，特朗普政府提高对华关税税率至 145%，中方反制关税税率 至 125%。当前阶段，市场关注焦点已从税率数字转移至全球贸易格 局重塑的可能性，风险溢价上升推动美国债收益率持续攀升，10 年 期国债上周累计上涨 49 个基点，创 200 ...

2024 年业绩展现韧性，2025 年收购增厚盈利 皖通高速(600012) ——皖通高速 2024 年业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 运输/工业 | | ——皖通高速 2024 | 年业绩点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 岳鑫(分析师) | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 22.40 | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | | 登记编号 S0880514030006 | S0880124070025 | | | | | [Table_Trend] 升幅(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对升幅 | 10% | 4% | 27% | | 相对指数 | 14% | 2% | 21% | 本报告导读： 皖通高速 2024 年业绩展现韧性。2025 年一季度末完成集团优质路产注入，将增厚 业绩。未来行业政策优化或加速，将保障改扩建合 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from February, and below the market expectation of 2.5%[2] - The core CPI year-on-year was 2.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from January and also below the market expectation of 3%[6] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, marking the first negative value since July 2022, while the core CPI adjusted month-on-month was 0.1%[6] Contributing Factors to Inflation Changes - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by a slowdown in energy prices and core services excluding rent[2] - Energy inflation year-on-year was -3.3%, a significant drop of 3.1 percentage points from February, contributing to a near 0.2 percentage point decrease in both year-on-year and month-on-month CPI growth[8] - Core service inflation, excluding rent, saw a year-on-year decrease from 3.8% in February to 3.3% in March, with a month-on-month slowdown to 0.3%[15] Market Implications - The weakening of the US dollar's credit foundation has led to simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with investors showing decreased confidence in dollar assets[5] - Despite the unexpected cooling of inflation data, the market did not react significantly, as the effects of tariffs on inflation have yet to fully materialize[20] - There is a potential risk of further increases in US Treasury yields due to the weakening dollar credit foundation and anticipated inflation pressures from tariffs in the second quarter[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.56 CNY [6][12] Core Views - The distribution business shows steady growth, while the retail segment faces pressure due to policy changes and impairment losses. The company is optimizing store operations and focusing on its own brand to drive retail transformation, leveraging the synergy between wholesale and retail [2][12] - The company aims for "high-quality development" as its core strategy, enhancing efficiency through innovation in the distribution segment and improving profitability in the retail segment via store optimization and brand development [12] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 743.78 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.46% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 642 million CNY, down 59.83% [4][12] - The distribution business is expected to generate revenue of 529.84 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 1.98%, while the retail segment is projected to decline to 223.57 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.41% [12] - The company plans to adjust its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.63 CNY and 2.82 CNY, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 3.04 CNY [12] Business Segments - The distribution segment is focusing on high-quality development, optimizing product structure, and increasing the proportion of innovative drugs, which is expected to drive future growth [12] - The retail segment is undergoing significant adjustments, shifting from scale growth to high-quality development, with a focus on loss management and the expansion of self-owned brands [12] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 13.72 billion CNY, with a current stock price of 24.65 CNY [7][12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 21.35 for 2024, decreasing to 8.12 by 2027 [4][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a focus on market share, gradual improvement in the domestic market, and continued rapid growth in overseas markets. The cost improvement benefits are expected to continue into 2025, leading to sustained steady growth in performance [3][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 15,197 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,325 million, up 4.1% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.52 [5][11]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of over 10% for 2025, with a focus on "steady growth, increasing sales volume, enhancing profits, and expanding new products" [11]. Business Performance - The company's yeast and deep processing/sugar/packaging/food raw materials/other business revenues for 2024 are expected to grow by 14.2%, -26.1%, -2.8%, +31.7%, and +42.1% respectively. The main business growth rate is expected to outperform the overall revenue growth rate [11]. - Domestic and overseas revenues are projected to increase by 7.5% and 19.4% respectively, driven by precise marketing strategies that ensure steady growth in the sales volume of leading products [11]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decrease by 0.7 percentage points to 21.4%, but is projected to improve in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 24.1%, reflecting a marginal improvement [11]. - The company is actively optimizing its organizational structure to enhance overall efficiency, with expectations for domestic improvements and effective overseas localization strategies [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [11]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance in 2024, with an increase in market share and a focus on internationalization and smart technology growth opportunities, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3][11]. - The company’s forklift business remains a leader domestically, and it is actively advancing its international and intelligent logistics strategies, which are expected to enhance profitability [11]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17,325 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,320 million yuan, up 0.18% year-on-year [11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 1.59 yuan and 1.78 yuan respectively, with a new EPS forecast of 2.00 yuan for 2027 [11]. - The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 23.46% and 7.62%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.58 percentage points and a decrease of 0.06 percentage points respectively [11]. Market Position - The company’s domestic and international revenue for 2024 was 10,186 million yuan and 6,928 million yuan respectively, with international revenue accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue, an increase of 5 percentage points [11]. - The domestic sales volume reached 213,800 units, with a market share of 26.56%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its global presence with the establishment of operational centers in Oceania, Europe, and South America, achieving the top market share in 34 overseas countries and regions [11]. - The company is also focusing on digital transformation and smart logistics, including partnerships with Huawei to accelerate technology innovation and talent development [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, RMB exchange rate fluctuations have intensified, and the RMB has also depreciated against some non - US currencies such as the euro and the yen. The subsequent interest rate cut may be slow, and the window period may appear in the middle of the year [2][4] - Since 2023, external balance has significantly affected the domestic interest rate cut rhythm. The central bank's exchange rate management aims for stability, and the step - by - step increase in the central parity rate reflects the gentle and orderly release of exchange rate pressure [4][7] - In the medium term, there are signs of a slowdown in the US economy, and there may be a window period for an interest rate cut in mid - 2025 [4][14] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. How will the interest rate cut rhythm evolve after the increase in exchange rate flexibility? - **Exchange rate fluctuations after reciprocal tariffs**: After the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 3, the on - shore RMB exchange rate has been rising for 4 consecutive trading days, with the central rate moving up from 7.27 to 7.35. The offshore RMB exchange rate has also depreciated, breaking through 7.4 on April 9. The US dollar index has been weak, and the RMB has depreciated against some non - US currencies [4][6] - **Impact of external balance on interest rate cut rhythm**: Since 2023, external balance has significantly affected the domestic interest rate cut rhythm. In 2024, the first policy interest rate cut was in late July, mainly due to exchange rate pressure [4][7] - **Exchange rate management and interest rate cut prediction**: The central bank's exchange rate management aims for stability. The step - by - step increase in the on - shore central parity rate to over 7.2% reflects the orderly release of exchange rate pressure. The central bank will likely maintain its stance in exchange rate regulation, with reserve requirement ratio cuts taking precedence over interest rate cuts, and the latter may be slow [4][12] - **Medium - term interest rate cut window**: There are signs of a slowdown in the US economy. The market has priced in a more than 50% probability of a Fed interest rate cut in May, and mid - year may be a good time for a domestic interest rate cut [4][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][16]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to meet market expectations, with short-term pressure on testing equipment, while environmental testing services and integrated circuit testing are expected to maintain steady growth. Orders in special industries are anticipated to improve in 2025, and integrated circuit testing is expected to accelerate [3][9]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2,117 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3%. In 2024, revenue is projected to decline to 2,026 million yuan, a decrease of 4.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop to 229 million yuan in 2024, down 27.0% from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.45 yuan [7][10]. - The company’s revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be 6.19 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.60% [9]. - The company’s net profit for the fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to be 0.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.64% but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 90.10% [9]. Product Performance - In 2024, revenue from testing equipment is expected to be 6.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.25% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened capital expenditure demand from special industry clients and intensified competition in the downstream market. Environmental reliability testing services are projected to generate 10.09 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.64% year-on-year. Integrated circuit verification and analysis services are expected to achieve 2.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 12.33% [9][10]. Future Outlook - In 2025, the company anticipates an improvement in orders from special industries, supported by a projected defense budget of 1.81 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The demand for equipment sales and environmental testing services is expected to improve as special industries enter a phase of accelerated order release [9][10].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The recent tariff environment has limited short-term disruptions to the pharmaceutical industry, with domestic innovative drugs expected to continue gaining market share[3] - Domestic innovative drug companies hold significant market shares, with local BTK inhibitors capturing 75% and PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies over 70% of the domestic market[3] - In 2024, the sales of the innovative drug Zebutini reached $2.6 billion, marking a 105% year-on-year increase, positioning it as the leading treatment in the U.S. for new CLL patients[3] Group 2: Investment Banking and Brokerage Sector - In Q1 2025, the total equity financing scale reached CNY 103.6 billion, reflecting a 32% year-on-year increase[8] - March saw a significant rise in IPOs, with 14 new listings raising a total of CNY 7.9 billion, a 105% increase from the previous month[8] - The demand for mergers and acquisitions remains strong, with 134 major restructuring events disclosed since the second half of 2024[8] Group 3: Engineering Machinery Sector - In March 2025, domestic excavator sales reached 19,517 units, a 28.5% year-on-year increase, contributing to a total of 61,372 units sold in Q1, up 22.8% year-on-year[18] - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products improved by 6.53% year-on-year, with excavators averaging 86.9 hours[19] - The overall risk from trade friction is manageable, as most major Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers have minimal exposure to the U.S. market[19] Group 4: Insurance Sector Developments - The recent regulatory changes allow insurance companies to increase their equity asset allocation, potentially enhancing their investment returns[21] - The new guidelines raise the equity allocation cap for insurers with a solvency ratio above 250% from 35% to 40%, providing more room for investment[22] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from improved asset allocation, with major companies likely to enhance their market support capabilities[21]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: GRU(10,2)+NN(10) - Model Construction Idea: This model uses a combination of GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) and Neural Networks to capture high-frequency trading patterns. - Model Construction Process: The model is constructed by first applying a GRU layer with 10 units and 2 layers, followed by a Neural Network layer with 10 units. This combination helps in capturing temporal dependencies and complex patterns in high-frequency data. - Model Evaluation: The model shows stable performance with notable returns. - [3][4] 2. Model Name: GRU(50,2)+NN(10) - Model Construction Idea: Similar to the previous model but with a larger GRU layer to capture more complex patterns. - Model Construction Process: The model uses a GRU layer with 50 units and 2 layers, followed by a Neural Network layer with 10 units. - Model Evaluation: This model also demonstrates strong performance with higher returns compared to the smaller GRU model. - [3][4] 3. Model Name: Multi-Granularity Model (5-day label) - Model Construction Idea: This model uses multi-granularity labels to capture different trading patterns over a 5-day period. - Model Construction Process: The model is trained using a bi-directional AGRU (Attention-based GRU) to capture both past and future dependencies in the data. - Model Evaluation: The model shows significant returns and is particularly effective in capturing short-term trading patterns. - [3][4] 4. Model Name: Multi-Granularity Model (10-day label) - Model Construction Idea: Similar to the 5-day label model but with a 10-day period to capture longer-term patterns. - Model Construction Process: The model is trained using a bi-directional AGRU. - Model Evaluation: This model also shows strong performance, capturing longer-term trading patterns effectively. - [3][4] Model Backtesting Results 1. GRU(10,2)+NN(10) - Multi-Period Return: 0.84% (last week), 0.84% (April 2025), 9.81% (YTD 2025) - [3] 2. GRU(50,2)+NN(10) - Multi-Period Return: 0.87% (last week), 0.87% (April 2025), 11.21% (YTD 2025) - [3] 3. Multi-Granularity Model (5-day label) - Multi-Period Return: 1.43% (last week), 1.43% (April 2025), 22.01% (YTD 2025) - [3] 4. Multi-Granularity Model (10-day label) - Multi-Period Return: 1.28% (last week), 1.28% (April 2025), 19.89% (YTD 2025) - [3] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Intraday Skewness Factor - Factor Construction Idea: This factor captures the skewness in intraday returns to identify potential trading opportunities. - Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated based on the distribution of intraday returns, focusing on the skewness measure. - Factor Evaluation: The factor shows mixed performance with some periods of negative returns. - [3][4] 2. Factor Name: Downside Volatility Proportion Factor - Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the proportion of downside volatility in intraday trading. - Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated by decomposing realized volatility into upside and downside components and focusing on the downside proportion. - Factor Evaluation: The factor shows relatively stable performance with positive returns in most periods. - [3][4] 3. Factor Name: Post-Open Buy Intention Proportion Factor - Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the proportion of buy intentions after the market opens. - Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated based on the proportion of buy orders in the initial trading period after the market opens. - Factor Evaluation: The factor shows consistent positive returns, indicating strong buy signals. - [3][4] 4. Factor Name: Post-Open Buy Intensity Factor - Factor Construction Idea: This factor measures the intensity of buy intentions after the market opens. - Factor Construction Process: The factor is calculated based on the intensity and volume of buy orders in the initial trading period after the market opens. - Factor Evaluation: The factor shows stable performance with positive returns. - [3][4] Factor Backtesting Results 1. Intraday Skewness Factor - Multi-Period Return: -0.12% (last week), -0.12% (April 2025), 11.2% (YTD 2025) - [3] 2. Downside Volatility Proportion Factor - Multi-Period Return: -0.36% (last week), -0.36% (April 2025), 8.82% (YTD 2025) - [3] 3. Post-Open Buy Intention Proportion Factor - Multi-Period Return: 0.41% (last week), 0.41% (April 2025), 6.53% (YTD 2025) - [3] 4. Post-Open Buy Intensity Factor - Multi-Period Return: 0.76% (last week), 0.76% (April 2025), 7% (YTD 2025) - [3]