Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner but is more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. The bond market has been volatile in the past two weeks due to weak fundamentals constraining interest rate increases and high short - term interest rates constraining decreases. In the future, monetary easing is the general trend, and the supply pressure of government bonds in the second quarter is similar to that in the first quarter. Interest rates are unlikely to break upward significantly, and there is a possibility of a downward break driven by fundamental data [6][23]. Summary by Related Content Current Bond Market Situation - This week, the bond market continued its volatile pattern, with limited changes in interest rates across all tenors. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond rates rose slightly by 1.1bps and 2.3bps to 1.66% and 1.93% respectively. The money market continued to ease, and the certificate of deposit (CD) rate remained flat at 1.76%. The credit bond interest rate also increased slightly. The bond market has been in a narrow - range volatile stage for two consecutive weeks, with the 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuating narrowly around 1.63% - 1.67% [1][9]. Factors Constraining Interest Rate Movements Constraints on Interest Rate Increases - Fundamental pressures have constrained the upward space of interest rates. Due to trade conflicts, external demand risks have increased, and domestic demand has also shown signs of weakening. High - frequency data has weakened since April, and indicators such as EPMI and BCI have declined. However, the slowdown in high - frequency data and sentiment indices is relatively gentle, and the short - term support for interest rate decreases from the fundamentals is insufficient [2][10]. Constraints on Interest Rate Decreases - High short - term interest rates and the non - implementation of loose monetary policy have constrained the downward space of interest rates. After the intensification of external shocks, the market once expected rapid implementation of loose monetary policy, but subsequent policies were more passive and cooperative. The 2 - year Treasury bond rate first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, and the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to the lowest level in recent years, reflecting a decline in the market's short - term expectation of monetary easing [3][11]. Breakout Directions of Interest Rates Limited Upward Breakout Possibility - Interest rate constraints mainly come from short - term interest rates. Although monetary policy is currently passive, it does not mean that it will not be loose. The Politburo meeting emphasized moderately loose monetary policy. The money market center has shifted downward, and the CD rate has remained stable. The spread between CDs and Treasury bonds has narrowed, limiting the upward space of short - term Treasury bonds and the pressure on the overall interest rate curve. From the perspective of bond supply, the pressure in the second quarter is only slightly higher than that in the first quarter, with estimated net local bond financing of 4.4 trillion yuan in the second quarter, compared with 4.1 trillion yuan in the first quarter [4][13][15]. Possibility of Downward Breakout - With changes in the fundamentals, there is a possibility of an interest rate downward breakout, with fundamental data being the core concern. In April, industrial product prices declined significantly, indicating a further decline in the PPI year - on - year. Falling prices will lead to a relatively certain decline in nominal interest rates. Although high - frequency economic indicators show a slowdown in economic volume, the extent has not significantly exceeded expectations. The overall impact amplitude needs to be determined by subsequent fundamental data. If the fundamental pressure is large enough, reserve policies, including monetary policy, will be introduced, leading to a downward breakout of interest rates [5][18]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral. Since the probability of an interest rate downward breakout is higher, long - term bonds are still advantageous, and long - term interest rates are expected to reach new lows [6][23].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的：华电国际、皖能电力、浙能电力、华能国际、建投能源；以及火电改 造设备龙头：青达环保。推荐布局低估绿电板块，推荐优先关注低估港股 绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、龙源电力（H）、中 闽能源、福能股份。把握水核防御，水电板块，建议关注长江电力、国投 电力、川投能源、华能水电；核电板块，建议关注中国核电和中国广核。 风险提示：原料价格超预 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 建筑材料 持续关注二手房对建材需求的影响 2025 年 4 月 21 日至 4 月 25 日建筑材料板块（SW）上涨 1.27%，其中 水泥（SW）下跌 0.94%，玻璃制造（SW）上涨 1.36%，玻纤制造（SW） 上涨 3.70%，装修建材（SW）上涨 2.48%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益 0.90%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-2.36 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周政治局会议指出"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长 期特别国债等发行使用"，"继续实施地方政府一揽子化债政策，加快解决 地方政府拖欠企业账款问题。加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中 村和危旧房改造。加快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优 化存量商品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。持续稳定和活跃 资本市场"等，后续内需刺激有望加码。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 3 月地 方政府债总发行量 9788.03 亿元，发行金额同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.15 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but managed to grow its net profit attributable to shareholders by 0.7% to 2.55 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant reduction in impairment losses and lower expense ratios [1][3]. - The company ranked 9th in sales among real estate firms, marking a 2-position improvement from the previous year, and is the only private enterprise in the top 10 [2]. - The company has focused its land acquisition strategy on high-quality locations, particularly in Hangzhou, where it holds a 37% market share [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 12.5% in 2024, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.7% [1][5]. - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt to 37.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 57% [3][5]. - The financing cost decreased to 3.4% in 2024, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, with plans to further reduce it to below 3.3% in 2025 [3][5]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company’s total sales for 2024 were 111.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, but it aims for sales of around 100 billion yuan in 2025 [2]. - The company acquired 23 plots of land in 2024, with 22 located in Hangzhou, maintaining a rational investment strategy despite a decrease in land acquisition volume [2][3]. Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 70.83 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected to reach 2.79 billion yuan [3][5]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.90 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.2 times based on the current stock price [3][5].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 板块观点与关注标的：1）资源整合预期：中视传媒、国新文化、广西广电、 唐德影视、吉视传媒、游族网络等；2）AI：荣信文化、奥飞娱乐、汤姆猫、 盛天网络、中文在线、易点天下、视觉中国、盛通股份、焦点科技、豆神教育、 世纪天鸿、佳发教育等；3）游戏：建议关注确定性强的神州泰岳、恺英网络、 巨人网络、吉比特，关注完美世界、ST 华通、冰川网络、华立科技；4）国企： 慈文传媒、皖新传媒、中文传媒、南方传媒、凯文教育、大晟文化等；5）教 育：学大教育等；6）港股：关注【阿里巴巴】【腾讯控股】【泡泡玛特】， 产业爆发在即的【阜博集团】，K12 教培龙头【新东方】及业绩弹性较大的区 域龙头【思考乐教育】【卓越教育】。 【国务院批复《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点工作方案》，文件提及国家 将全力推动游戏出海战略升级】近日，国务院批复《加快推进服务业扩大开放 综合试点工作方案》，明确了 155 项试点任务，其中游戏"出海"业务被重点 提及。文件提及国家将全力推动游戏出海战略升级，重点培育游戏国际化全产 业链涵盖 IP 孵化、内容研发、全球发 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电子 周观点：海外算力维持高景气，持续重视算力产业链 从 25Q1 海外 AI 算力公司业绩来看，Vertiv、安费诺等业绩均表现强劲， 且都展望 Q2 营收能保持较好的增长。从超预期的业绩表现中，能看到海 外 AI 投资的向上趋势；从 Vertiv 25Q1 亚太地区营收高增速中，可以看 到国产算力的高需求。具体来看： 2）安费诺：25Q1 营收远超指引上限，25Q2 通讯数据市场指引强劲。 25Q1，安费诺实现营收 48.11 亿美元（高于此前指引上限 41 亿美元）， 同比增长 48%，环比增长 11%。订单额达 52.92 亿美元，创历史新高， 同比激增 58%，环比增长 6%。分业务来看，通信解决方案部门 25Q1 营 收达 24.14 亿美元，同比大幅增长 91%。展望 25Q2，预计营收将达到 49 亿至 50 亿美元，同比增长 36%至 39%。从各细分市场展望来看，IT 通 讯数据市场受益于 AI 数据中心投资加速，营收预计环比实现高个位数增 长。 3）谷歌：全年资本开支维持 750 亿美元，AI 方面进 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 传媒 沪深300 作者 传媒 国 家 将 全 力 推 动游 戏 出 海战 略 升 级 ，OpenAI 发布轻量版 DeepResearch 行情概览：本周（4.21-4.25）中信一级传媒板块上涨 0.14%。本周传媒板 块在市场带动下上涨。2025 年传媒弹性方向看好 AI 应用、IP 变现及并购重 组，AI 应用聚焦新应用的映射投资及部分较成熟应用的数据跟踪，重点关注 多模态产业方向。IP 变现聚焦有 IP 优势及全产业链潜力的公司，潮流玩具、 影视内容等方向有机会。并购重组重点关注国企方向，在国资委明确国企市值 考核的背景下，传媒国企诉求明显提升，部分国企资金优势明显。 板块观点与关注标的：1）资源整合预期：中视传媒、国新文化、广西广电、 唐德影视、吉视传媒、游族网络等；2）AI：荣信文化、奥飞娱乐、汤姆猫、 盛天网络、中文在线、易点天下、视觉中国、盛通股份、焦点科技、豆神教育、 世 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 周观点：相关标的见尾页。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、研发进展不及预期、地缘政治风险。 电子 周观点：海外算力维持高景气，持续重视算力产业链 从 25Q1 海外 AI 算力公司业绩来看，Vertiv、安费诺等业绩均表现强劲， 且都展望 Q2 营收能保持较好的增长。从超预期的业绩表现中，能看到海 外 AI 投资的向上趋势；从 Vertiv 25Q1 亚太地区营收高增速中，可以看 到国产算力的高需求。具体来看： 1）Vertiv：25Q1 业绩表现强劲，营收超预期，上调全年营收指引 2.5 亿美元。VERTIV 25Q1 实现营收 20.36 亿美元，yoy+24.2%，qoq-13.2%， 超出指引 1.11 亿美元。分地区来看，亚太地区营收同比增长 35%，中国 的需求为带动市场持续增长的主要动力。展望 25Q2，公司预计营收中值 为 23.5 亿美元，yoy+20.3%，qoq+15.4%；展望 2025 全年，预计营收 中值为 94.50 亿美元，中值 yoy+17.9%。 2）安费诺：25Q1 营收远超指引上限，25 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 电力 迎峰度夏将至，重视煤价后置下的火电机会 本周行情回顾：本周（4.21-4.25）上证指数报收 3,295.06 点，上涨 0.56%， 沪深 300 指数报收 3786.99 点，上涨 0.38%。中信电力及公用事业指数 报收 2894.72 点，上涨 2.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.68pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 8 位。 本周行业观点： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 电力 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 分析师 高紫明 执业证书编号：S0680524100001 邮箱：gaoziming@gszq.com 投资建议：电力公司业绩陆续发布，基本面支撑与市场风格共振，重视电 力投资机会布局。迎峰度夏将至，本周煤价下跌至 665 元/吨附近，成本 超预期下跌支撑度电盈利改善，重视火电超额机会，建议关注重点火电标 的 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 27 年 月 日 欧普照明（603515.SH） 国内知名照明企业，具备品牌、渠道优势 国内知名照明企业，不断拓展多元渠道。欧普照明为国内知名照明企业， 定位于绿色节能智慧照明企业，主要从事家居照明灯具、商用照明灯具、 光源及控制类产品的研发、生产和销售，并逐步转型为智能照明系统综合 解决方案的提供商。公司具有丰富的产品类型，以"自制+OEM"结合的 生产模式，加强研发投入，满足市场需求，从销售模式来看，公司采用经 销为主、直销为辅的模式，以下沉式渠道拓展销售网络，以照明解决方案 体现增值服务，线上线下融合打造多元渠道网络，同时公司也积极拓展海 外渠道，品牌影响力不断扩大。 公司 2024 年前三季度营收业绩下滑，预计 2024 年全年承压。公司 2024Q1-Q3 实现营业总收入 50.68 亿元，同比增长-8.09%；实现归母净 利润 6.21 亿元，同比增长-5.68%。其中，2024Q3 单季营业总收入为 17.02 亿元，同比增长-13.62%；归母净利润为 2.37 亿元，同比增长-9.69%。 考虑到当前地产情况及消费景气度现 ...