短期内，可直接观察同一主体发行的、剩余期限极为接近（通常相差在 0.5 年以内）的新券和老券，计算并追踪其收 益率差值的动态变化。该利差能更及时地反映市场对增值税补偿的定价，从而避免了对整条曲线进行估值调整的诸多 强假设。 对于普通非金信用债，剔除增值税影响后的信用利差等于基于中债收益率曲线计算的信用利差+同期限国债/国开债新 老券利差；而对于二永债等金融债券，剔除增值税影响后的信用利差等于基于中债收益率曲线计算的信用利差+同期 限国债/国开债新老券利差-同期限金融债新老券利差。 同样需要注意的是，新老券利差还原法亦存在局限。首先，新券通常流动性优于老券，其收益率本就包含流动性折价， 这与增值税补偿要求的收益率上行力量相反。因此，观测到的利差是两者净效应的结果，可能低估了真实的税收补偿 要求。其次，对二永债等信用债新发券，可比的配对券样本相对稀缺，部分期限、等级信用债利差难以靠该方法还原。 总的来看，新老券利差还原法更适用于捕捉短期交易机会、监控市场情绪。如若评估债券资产长期配置价值，或进行 历史回溯，则税负补偿倒推法亦有使用空间。 由于信用利差通常以"信用债收益率减同期限国开债/国债收益率"计算，当基准利率 ...

风险提示 证券板块 超 20 家上市券商发布业绩预告或业绩快报，经纪、自营业务是主要驱动力。25Q4 利润增速以环比下降为主，主要是 因为 Q4 投资收益率下降，但多数公司实现同比高速增长，整体符合预期，券商板块高业绩增速有望支撑补涨。 证监会发布《关于修改〈《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》第九条、第十条、第十一条、第十三条、第四十条、第五 十七条、第六十条有关规定的适用意见——证券期货法律适用意见第 18 号〉的决定（征求意见稿）》，并公开征求意 见。战略投资者类型扩围，修订稿明确全国社保基金、基本养老保险基金、企业（职业）年金基金、商业保险资金、 公募基金、银行理财等机构投资者可以作为战略投资者；明确持股比例与锁定约束，修订稿强调战略投资者本次认购 上市公司股份原则上不低于 5%；在长期、较大比例持股和提名董事参与公司治理基础上，明确其需导入战略资源、 改善治理或资源整合，同时强化锁定与合规，不得通过代持、绕道减持等方式规避最低持股比例与锁定期要求。核心 在于引导"耐心资本"从财务投资转向积极股东，是构建"长钱长投"市场生态的关键一环。 投资建议：建议关注三条主线：（1）强烈推荐估值及业绩错配程度较大的优 ...

" " 1 月利率呈先上后下走势，年初前两周，债券表现偏弱，10 年国债利率最高上行至 1.9%附近，主要受到以下因素影 响：供给担忧加剧、降息预期被打压、权益冲高形成跷跷板效应，商品强势加剧通胀担忧。而后中下旬，随着央行流 动性投放充裕，市场对供给担忧逐渐缓和，再加上监管层对权益市场主动降温，配置盘较积极，交易盘情绪在充分降 温后回暖（情绪指标一度回落至约 40%的低位，中长债基久期水平降至近三年的低分位），市场迎来一轮修复窗口。经 历 1 月多空博弈后，市场较去年底出现了一些新变化。 1 月物价不仅加速上行，且覆盖面扩大，内需相关品种亦跟随回升，价格变动由原材料向终端传导，对 1 月 PPI 向上 收敛幅度及后续通胀预期都有提振。PPI 在 1 月的环比增幅或落在 0.15%到 0.25%之间，对应同比位于-1.53%至-1.43% 范围，同比降幅有望加速收窄。1 月的变化接近我们此前年度预测中的乐观场景，在此前的中性预测中，PPI 预计在 三季度末附近回升至零，而在乐观情境下，PPI 回升至零的时点可能提前至第二季度末至第三季度初。 若 PPI 加快向上回归这一边际变化延续，对企业盈利预期、乃至更进一步 ...

新房方面，本周（1.24-1.30）景气度下行趋缓，47 城新房成交量环比回升 16.6%，较去年农历同期下降 17.1%，降幅 较上周收窄。二手房方面，本周（1.24-1.30）景气度底部企稳，春节临近 22 城二手房成交量季节性回落，环比增速 -5.5%；较去年农历同期下降 16.2%。往前看，随着春节临近房地产市场的热度将季节性回落，"金三银四"将成为检 验房地产市场能否实现止跌回稳的关键窗口。 风险提示 房价下行幅度和速度超预期，房企债务风险超预期，宏观经济超预期下行。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 图表2：春节临近，二手房成交面积季节性回落 往前看，随着春节临近房地产市场的热度将季节性回落，春节过后"金三银四"开启，预计房企将加大优质供给的推 盘力度，带动新房销量回升，二手房销量受需求"跷跷板"影响或出现小幅回落。从房地产市场的症结看，新房的关 键是"量"的企稳，取决于优质供给的释放节奏；二手房的关键是"价"的企稳，由于从估值角度看核心城市房价接 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 2 新房方面，本周（1.24-1.30）景气度下行趋缓，47 城新房成交量环比回升 16.6%， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in China's smartphone sales, projecting approximately 21 million units sold in December 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 20% [12] - Major smartphone brands such as Huawei, OPPO, Honor, vivo, and Apple hold market shares of approximately 20%, 17%, 14%, 14%, and 13% respectively, with Huawei's Mate X6 being the top-selling model [12][18] - The domestic PC market shows a mixed performance, with desktop sales increasing by about 9% to approximately 1.92 million units, while laptop sales decreased by about 9% to around 2.15 million units [19] Summary by Sections Overseas Market Review - The report notes the ongoing rise in activity for overseas AI-related stocks, with companies like Meta, Apple, and Broadcom showing positive weekly performance [6] Consumer Electronics Dynamics - The report emphasizes the severe decline in the domestic smartphone market, with Huawei leading in market share and specific models like Mate X6 and Mate X7 performing well [12][18] - The report also indicates a downturn in laptop sales while desktop sales have shown some recovery [19]

子行业周度核心观点： 整体观点：本周 SpaceX 提交的百万颗级最新星座计划与中国航天科技集团宣布的"155 战略"继续为商业航天与太空 光伏主线"空中加油"，再次重申看好太空/马斯克光伏仍是当前电新板块最强主线；储能与锂电板块在下游淡季与碳 酸锂涨价的双重影响下前期调整充分，本周迎来期待已久的容量电价政策落地，伴随后续各省区具体电价政策出台、 碳酸锂价格回落、项目开工将提速，储能板块热度有望重新回升；此外，本周欧洲海风与国内氢能领域继续有积极信 号，再次提示低位布局机会（本周发布明阳智能公司深度报告，重点看好）。 光伏&储能：SpaceX 提交百万颗级轨道数据中心卫星计划，人类迈出走向 II 级文明的第一步，太空光伏行情继续空中 加油；银价高位大幅回落有望缓解电池组件环节成本压力，驱动短期盈利预期修复；全国性储能容量电价政策框架政 策落地，为储能项目投资注入确定性的同时，有望逐步展现对光伏发电消纳及市场交易电价的积极影响。 风电：1 月风机招标 6.3GW，陆风中标均价仍然维持较好水平，继续看好 2026-2027 年整机环节盈利弹性释放；2025 年国内风电新增并网约 120GW，同比+50%，看好"十 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors remain the primary driver in the current oil market, with significant attention on the potential for conflict between the US and Iran. The market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $8-10 per barrel related to Iran [15][17]. - The report anticipates that if the situation with Iran does not escalate into a full-blown conflict, oil prices may revert to supply-demand fundamentals, potentially leading to a price decline [15][17]. - The report highlights that the recent cold wave and reduced production in Kazakhstan have slowed the accumulation of global inventories, with expectations of a return to a higher accumulation rate in the coming weeks [17][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a weekly increase of +7.95%, with specific indices such as the oil and gas resources index rising by +7.79% and the oil and gas extraction services index by +7.96% [10][11]. Oil Sector - As of January 29, WTI crude oil was priced at $65.42, up by $6.06, while Brent crude was at $72.57, up by $6.60. The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels [16][17]. - The report notes that US crude oil production stands at 13.696 million barrels per day, with a decrease in net imports by 61.8% [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries was reported at 80.02%, with a slight increase of 1.24 percentage points from the previous week. The average refining margin for major refineries was 659.83 yuan per ton, down by 101.65 yuan per ton [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has increased to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees at 374.32 yuan per ton. The report indicates a decline in profitability for polyester products, with average profit levels for various types of polyester showing negative margins [16]. Olefins Sector - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The propylene market saw an increase in average transaction prices to 6400 yuan per ton, up by 3.64% [16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights various sectors including trendy toys, new tobacco products, home furnishings, paper packaging, personal care, AI glasses, pet food, and 3D printing, indicating a mixed outlook across these industries with some showing signs of recovery while others face challenges Trendy Toys - MINISO has entered the AI companionship market with the development of a humanoid robot named "YOYO" aimed at emotional companionship, with a future price set in the tens of thousands of yuan range [2] - The collaboration between MINISO and the Central Radio and Television Station for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala is expected to boost sales of their co-branded products [2] - Bubble Mart's new product releases and collaborations with popular IPs have generated positive responses on social media, indicating strong market engagement [2][11] New Tobacco Products - Japan Tobacco plans to raise the retail price of heated tobacco products by 20-30 yen (approximately $0.13-$0.19) starting April 1, 2026, in response to tax adjustments [2] - Philip Morris International has submitted evidence to the FDA to support its ZYN nicotine pouch for modified risk tobacco product designation, indicating a growing regulatory framework for new tobacco products [2] Home Furnishings - The domestic real estate market remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.23% in new home sales and a 7.05% decrease in second-hand home sales as of January 23 [3] - The report notes a significant decline in furniture exports from China, down 8.7% year-on-year in December, while Vietnam's furniture exports increased by 20.5% [3][18] Paper Packaging - As of January 29, prices for various paper products have shown mixed trends, with some prices decreasing significantly due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][19] - The report indicates that rising aluminum prices may lead packaging companies to adjust their pricing strategies to pass on costs to consumers [3][20] Personal Care and AI Glasses - The export volume of disposable hygiene products from China is expected to grow by 10.43% year-on-year in 2025, with baby diapers being a key export category [4][21] - The global market for AI glasses is projected to reach 16 million units by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory for this emerging technology [4][24] Pet Food - Zhongchong Co. plans to repurchase shares worth 100-200 million yuan at a premium, reflecting management's confidence in the company's undervalued stock [5][29] - The pet food industry is experiencing increased competition, leading to higher sales expense ratios, but established brands are expected to maintain their market positions [5][28] AI and 3D Printing - Tuozhu Technology is collaborating with a listed company to develop consumer-grade 3D scanners, enhancing its product matrix in the personal manufacturing sector [5][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and market acceptance for the success of new 3D printing products [5][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it implies a cautious outlook based on recent market trends and macroeconomic factors [29]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a decline, with a total market capitalization of $2.84 trillion, down 6.0% from the previous week. Bitcoin closed at $84,129, also down 6.0%, while Ethereum closed at $2,702, down 8.5% [10][11]. - The report highlights significant macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the potential impact of political developments on market sentiment [10][12]. - There is a notable decline in Bitcoin mining profitability, with the ratio of Bitcoin price to mining profitability reaching a 14-month low, influenced by extreme weather conditions affecting mining operations [20][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The cryptocurrency market saw a total market cap of $2.84 trillion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declining by 6.0% and 8.5%, respectively. The Federal Reserve's interest rate was held steady, impacting market expectations [10][12]. - The overall market sentiment has turned cold, with the Fear and Greed Index indicating a score of 26, reflecting a state of fear among investors [13][14]. Global Policy and Industry News - Tether launched USAT, compliant with U.S. regulations, and plans to increase its gold holdings to 10-15% of its portfolio by 2025 [20][21]. - The report notes that 72% of licensed cryptocurrency exchanges in Indonesia are currently operating at a loss, facing challenges from international competition [23]. - The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee passed the Clarity Act, which still requires approval from the Senate Banking Committee [23]. Company News - Strategy Company increased its Bitcoin holdings by nearly 3,000 BTC, bringing its total to over 712,000 BTC, with an average purchase price of $76,037 per BTC [24]. - SoFi Technologies reported a revenue exceeding $1 billion for Q4 2025, with a 35% year-over-year increase in membership [25]. - MARA received approval to acquire a 64% stake in Exaion, a data center subsidiary of EDF [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies transitioning to AI data centers and those with significant power reserves, as they may reveal further developments during the earnings season [27].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, expecting a fluctuation range of -5% to 5% relative to the market over the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea industry remains in a high-growth phase, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations. Price competition is expected to ease following the end of promotional pricing by Kudi [3][11]. - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a projected online retail sales growth of 5.2% by 2025, reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales. The overall performance is subdued due to domestic consumption conditions, although AI is expected to enhance advertising efficiency [3][12]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [3]. - The virtual assets and trading platforms are facing macroeconomic uncertainties and limited policy catalysts, with cryptocurrency prices experiencing volatility [3][25]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new developments, such as JD's entry into the modification market with its first modification center in Wuhan [3][39]. - The AI and cloud sectors are witnessing advancements in foundational model capabilities, with a focus on AI applications. Major tech companies continue to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][44]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index showed a cumulative decline of 0.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.92 percentage points. Notable stock performances include Yum China (+1.57%) and Luckin Coffee (-0.15%) [8][10]. 1.1.1 Coffee and Tea - The coffee sector is experiencing sustained high demand, with brands continuing to expand despite seasonal challenges. Kudi's promotional pricing has ended, and coffee bean prices are rising, leading to a potential slowdown in price competition [3][11]. 1.1.2 E-commerce & Internet - The Hang Seng internet technology index fell by 1.16%, with a notable performance gap compared to the Hang Seng technology index. Luckin Coffee opened 200 new stores, with a significant portion in first and second-tier cities [12][13]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index decreased by 0.98%, with Tencent Music (+3.07%) and iQIYI (+1.96%) showing positive movements [19][20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped to 29,604 billion USD, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by 5.9% and 8.4%, respectively [25][27]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The automotive service sector is active, with JD's new modification center opening and a notable increase in vehicle transfer registrations, indicating a vibrant used car market [33][39]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index saw a decline of 1.16%, with notable stock performances from Beike-W (+5.48%) and Didi Global (-5.04%) [38][42]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index fell by 1.45%, with significant stock movements from Meta (+8.77%) and Google A (+3.07%) [44][46].