Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight volumes, but major airlines like China Southern Airlines and Air China are expected to turn profitable in 2025 [4]. - The shipping sector shows a significant increase in dry bulk shipping index (BDI) by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the SCFI index down by 9.7% week-on-week, reflecting weak demand in the long-distance shipping market [20]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) is at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a similar growth [53]. - Major airlines are expected to see improved profitability, with Air China and China Southern Airlines projected to return to profit in 2025 [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in December 2025 was 323 million, up 8.52% year-on-year, while freight volume decreased by 2.60% [72]. - The road freight volume for the same period was 37.97 billion tons, showing a slight increase of 0.62% year-on-year [77].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it discusses various performance metrics and market conditions that may influence investment decisions [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a cautious approach to production amid weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday activity [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with external prices driven higher by export policies while domestic prices face downward pressure, leading to a current loss of 37.9 yuan per ton for steel mills [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material costs on financial performance [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has decreased by 2.0% this week, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, although the performance of general steel stocks has remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with increasing iron ore imports and low steel inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price differential has decreased by 2.9 yuan, indicating financial strain on steel mills [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has shown a decline, reflecting broader market trends [1][11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased, with a total of 278.33 million tons, down 2.82 million tons week-on-week [2][12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 yuan per ton [3][13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate has increased slightly to 469,500 tons, with iron ore prices showing mixed trends [4][14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [4][14]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the recovery speed of coal mines and its impact on coke prices post-holiday [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $143.76 billion for FY26Q1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6%, with a gross margin of 48.1% and a net profit of $42.10 billion, also up by 15.9% year-on-year [2]. - For FY26Q2, the company anticipates revenue growth of 13% to 16% year-on-year, with gross margins expected to be between 48% and 49% [2]. - The strong demand for the iPhone 17 series has driven a record revenue of $85.3 billion from iPhone sales in FY26Q1, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [3]. - The Greater China region saw a remarkable revenue growth of 38%, primarily due to a surge in iPhone upgrade users [3]. - The company's service business generated $30 billion in revenue for FY26Q1, a 14% increase year-on-year, contributing to its robust profitability [3]. - The collaboration with Google on AI technology is expected to enhance the company's foundational models, particularly for personalized Siri [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $118.8 billion, $127.1 billion, and $135.8 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [4]. - Revenue forecasts for FY26, FY27, and FY28 are $454.85 billion, $487.42 billion, and $521.54 billion, with growth rates of 9.3%, 7.2%, and 7.0% respectively [9]. - The EBITDA for FY26 is estimated at $151.81 billion, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [9]. - The diluted earnings per share for FY26 is projected to be $8.21, increasing to $9.77 by FY28 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on leading companies and those experiencing price increases from the bottom [2][3] Core Insights - The chemical market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenwan Chemical Index declining by 0.86%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.94%. However, price increases were noted in various products, including dyes and para-nitrochlorobenzene, driven by the cancellation of export tax rebates, which accelerated export activities [2] - The AI industry shows strong demand, positively impacting the entire supply chain. Notable performances include ASML's Q4 results, which exceeded expectations, and SK Hynix's Q4 operating profit doubling year-on-year, marking the strongest performance in history [2] - The real estate sector is stabilizing as the "three red lines" policy ends, indicating a healthier market moving forward [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Overview - The chemical market saw a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Chemical Index down 0.86% while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.08%. The textile chemical products sector led gains with a 14.33% increase [11][12] - Key price movements included a rise in disperse dyes to an average of 19 CNY/kg and reactive dyes to 23 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.56% and 4.55% increase respectively [3][29] AI Industry Developments - The AI sector is witnessing robust growth, with major players like ByteDance and Alibaba planning to launch new AI models around the Spring Festival, and significant investments in AI and cloud computing expected to rise from 380 billion CNY to 480 billion CNY over the next three years [2][4] Real Estate Sector Changes - The end of the "three red lines" policy is expected to lead to a more stable and resilient real estate market, as risks from the previous cycle are gradually cleared [3][4] Price Trends in Key Chemical Products - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with disperse dyes and reactive dyes showing notable upward trends due to rising raw material costs and limited supply [29][30] - The report also notes that the PA66 market is experiencing upward pressure, with prices rising to 14,954 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.48% increase [33][34]

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Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a cautious outlook based on current market conditions and inventory levels [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a potential weak willingness to stockpile due to low price differentials and weak expectations for post-holiday production [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with domestic steel price differentials decreasing by 2.9 CNY, leading to a loss of 37.9 CNY per ton for steel companies, and a slight decline in profitability to 39.4% [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 2.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, while the performance of general steel stocks remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing and steel inventories low, indicating a cautious approach to stocking [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material prices on financial performance [1][11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from last week [12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week, and 10.30 million tons month-on-month [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton [13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate from 186 mining companies is 469,500 tons, with a slight increase in inventory [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore prices have shown mixed trends, with the 66% iron concentrate price in Tangshan at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase [14]. - The report indicates a continued increase in iron ore inventory at ports, suggesting a potential for price fluctuations in the coming weeks [14].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a recommendation for Haicheng Co. due to its focus on smart logistics [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints ease, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. - The dry bulk shipping index (BDI) increased by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk demand [34]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, with domestic routes showing strong performance [53]. - Major airlines are expected to improve profitability, with China National Airlines and Southern Airlines highlighted for their potential [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year in December 2025, while road freight volume showed a slight increase of 0.62% [72]. - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 3.32% decrease week-on-week [34]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Holding for its valuation and resilience, and in Haicheng Co. for its smart logistics initiatives [2][3]. - The aviation sector is also recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Neutral" investment rating for the industry, expecting a fluctuation range of -5% to 5% compared to the broader market over the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations. Price competition is expected to ease following the end of promotional pricing by Kudi and rising coffee bean prices [3][11]. - The e-commerce sector continues to face pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% and accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [3]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [3]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing volatility amid macroeconomic uncertainties, with recent developments in U.S. regulatory frameworks impacting market dynamics [3]. - The automotive service sector is expanding, with JD.com opening its first car modification center, indicating growth in the aftermarket segment [3]. - The AI and cloud sector is witnessing advancements in foundational model capabilities, leading to increased application deployment. The report suggests focusing on tech leaders with strong cash flow, such as Google and Microsoft in the U.S., and Tencent and Alibaba in China [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index showed a cumulative decline of 0.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.92 percentage points [8]. - Notable stock performances include Yum China (+1.57%) and Luckin Coffee (-0.15%), with several other brands experiencing declines [8][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index fell by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 3.36 percentage points [19]. - Key stock movements included Tencent Music (+3.07%) and Spotify (-2.51%) [19][20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - As of January 30, the global cryptocurrency market cap was $296.04 billion, down 4.72%. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 5.9% and 8.4%, respectively [25][27]. 1.2.3 Automotive Aftermarket - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 1.78%, with Advance Auto Parts (+2.65%) leading the gains [33]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index declined by 1.16%, with notable stock performances including Beike-W (+5.48%) and Didi Global (-5.04%) [38]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index decreased by 1.45%, with Meta (+8.77%) and Google A (+3.07%) showing positive movements [44].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with expectations of price increases and performance improvements in the coming months [58]. Core Insights - The small metals index rose by 7.49% during the reporting period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.03% [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metals, with rare earth elements showing strong price increases, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 11.03% to 748,700 CNY/ton [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the increasing demand for rare earths, particularly in the context of global inventory replenishment needs [15][17]. Summary by Sections Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The small metals index closed at 38,048.84 points, reflecting a 7.49% increase, which is 2.11 percentage points lower than the non-ferrous metals index [12]. - Key commodity prices showed varied trends, with praseodymium oxide increasing by 11.03%, dysprosium oxide decreasing by 10.74%, and tungsten concentrate rising by 19.24% [13]. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached 748,700 CNY/ton, driven by supply-side reforms and increased processing fees [2][15]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector will continue to see valuation and performance improvements, with 2026 being a critical year for resolving competitive issues within the industry [17]. Tin - Tin ingot prices increased by 2.17% to 423,600 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued upward trends due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [3][24]. - The demand for tin is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in semiconductors and automotive electronics [24]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices rose by 19.24% to 600,700 CNY/ton, supported by increased strategic reserves in the U.S. and domestic demand [3][33]. - The report highlights the potential for sustained price increases due to military and civilian demand [33]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased by 1.26% to 164,100 CNY/ton, with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements [4][40]. - The report notes a significant drop in antimony exports, indicating potential for future price increases as demand stabilizes [40]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 4,010 CNY/ton, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 0.79% to 256,000 CNY/ton [5][43]. - The report suggests that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support future price increases [43].

核心观点 完善发电侧容量电价机制，火电或迎容量电价超额上涨 本周五，发改委、能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，分类完善煤电、气电、抽蓄容量电价 机制，并首次在国家层面明确电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制，关键要素如下：（1）对于火电，因部分地区煤电利 用小时数快速下降，因此将补偿固定成本比例提升至不低于 50%，可根据实际情况进一步提升，对于煤电市场化交易 电价下限不再统一执行 20%，而由各地合理确定下限，同时放宽长协签约比例要求，鼓励电价与成本变化相结合；（2） 对于抽蓄，现行电价机制对企业成本约束不足，因此对 633 号文出台后开工的电站，实行弥补平均成本的一省一价的 统一容量电价，电站可自主参与市场交易；（3）对于电网侧独立新型储能，以煤电容量电价为基础，根据满功率连续 放电时长/全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长确定折算比例，预计各省差异较大，如目前甘肃省将持续时长设置为 6 小时； （4）有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，在现货市场连续运行后，对本省机组可靠容量按统一原则补偿；（5）对于 可靠容量充裕或用户经济承受能力较弱地区，严控新增调节性电源项目。 火电盈利模型变革得到进一步明确，关注火 ...