如何看待有色金属的高波动？ 本轮有色金属的行情背后是：美元信用松动+流动性宽松预期+新增产业需求叙事，金融资本由于此前对实物资产欠配， 所以在上述三个催化下快速涌入。我们是实物资产投资逻辑在国内市场最早的构建者，但在近期市场过于流行的一致 预期也让我们担心一切看起来"太过容易"。本周四、周五有色金属商品和股票调整的原因则在于上述"美元信用松 动+流动性宽松预期"的叙事因为美联储主席提名人选的确定出现了逆转，再加上有色金属价格达到历史新高后的获 利了结。特朗普对沃什的提名尽管不直接意味着流动性的收紧，但至少让市场看到了一个"重塑美元信用"的蓝图， 这对于前期的拥挤交易产生了冲击：第一，美联储"缩表"回收市场多余流动性，压低通胀；第二，在通胀得到控制 的前提下，跟随自然利率的下降而降息，支持高效率的企业生产培育经济增长的内生动能，这是美元信用可持续的核 心支撑。而为了平滑上述两个环节带来的市场波动——美联储作为本土最大买家逐步减持美债将带来债券收益率大 幅上行，美国政府需要想方设法重塑美债买盘， "石油美元"循环在此时的重要性提升：历史上，原油每上升 1 美 元，将带来沙特、阿联酋、科威特这三个海合组织国家持有美 ...

" " 火箭运力就是"算力"，火箭端卡位核心的环节有望享受长期的估值溢价、最先受益下游景气度的传 导，我们认为火箭端的预期差在于上中下游景气度的边际变化 投资建议 抢占太空资源属于当前我国的重要战略，而目前的核心卡点在于火箭端的运力不足，我们看好 26 年成为商业火箭公司的可回收发射元年，重视国内空天链的"寒武纪"：火箭核心零部件。 相关标的 航天动力（航天发动机）、飞沃科技（航天发动机 3D 打印）、西部材料（航天发动机铌合金材料）、 超捷股份、广联航空。 风险提示 商业航天发展不及预期；原材料价格上涨；新进入者增加、价格竞争激烈；商业火箭公司上市节奏 不及预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 上游：核心的发动机材料环节。发动机核心材料属于稀缺的产业资源，未来随着火箭需求的放量， 我们大概率能看到上游稀缺金属的需求变化。西诺新贵（西部材料子公司）23-25H1 的收入为 3.8、 4.7、2.7 亿元，yoy 达+9.3%、+24.5%、24.9%，随着下游火箭需求的爆发增长，上游材料值得重视。 中游：设备端未来边际变化较大的两个方向是发动机、3D 打印方向，具备稀缺性+通胀的长期逻辑。 1）商业火箭的发动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.655 billion, a year-over-year increase of 43.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.4%. The GAAP gross margin was 11.8%, with a net profit of $267 million, reflecting a 76% increase year-over-year [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026 to $17 billion from a previous estimate of $16 billion, with an expected Non-GAAP EPS of $8.75 [2]. - The data center segment is experiencing rapid growth, with cloud and connectivity solutions revenue reaching $2.86 billion in Q4 2025, up 64% year-over-year. The company is a key supplier for Google's TPU servers, indicating strong partnerships and future revenue potential from AI projects [3]. - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures to $1 billion in 2026, reflecting confidence in long-term demand and growth prospects [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Q4 2025 revenue was $3.655 billion, with a GAAP net profit of $267 million, and Non-GAAP net profit of $219 million [2]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $385 million and $415 million, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 7.8% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s data center revenue is projected to continue growing rapidly, with expectations of 60-65% year-over-year growth in the communication terminal market for Q1 2026 [3]. - The company has secured a project for its 1.6T switch with a third major cloud provider, indicating strong market demand [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve adjusted Non-GAAP net profits of $1.013 billion, $1.447 billion, and $1.961 billion for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for 2026 are set at $17.796 billion, with a growth rate of 43.6% [9].

业绩简评 2026 年 1 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，公司预计 2025 年 实现归母净利润 70-84 亿元，与上年同期（按合并完成后重述口 径）相比，增加 27.8-41.8 亿元，同比增加约 65.89%至 99.07%， 业绩显著改善。 经营分析 行业基本面近期边际改善，新造船价格回升，中国造船全球份额 提升。根据克拉克森，2025 年 12 月全球新船价格指数达 184.65， 环比+0.17%，是 25 年 7 月份以来首次实现月度环比提升。此外， 从订单量上看，25 年 12 月全球新接订单 2488.5 万 DWT，中国新 接订单 2153.3 万 DWT，新接订单全球份额达 86.5%，环比 11 月提 升 20.1pcts，中国造船竞争力提升。 行业周期持续上行，公司订单饱满，叠加前期高价船陆续交付，看 好公司未来利润率持续提升。我们认为本轮船舶周期仍处于上行 阶段，全球造船产能供不应求，同时叠加 2025 年低基数因素，2026 年全球造船订单有望实现量价齐升。公司作为全球造船龙头，在手 订单充足。2025 年 12 月 8 日，公司实际控制人中国船舶集团与中 国远洋 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The acquisition of a 51.55% stake in Tefu International is expected to significantly enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders, with Tefu's projected revenue for 2025 at 8.187 billion RMB and net profit at 1.474 billion RMB [3]. - The company plans to invest 94.72 million USD (approximately 660 million RMB) in a new float glass project in Ghana, which is expected to have a production capacity of 600 tons per day [3]. - The lithium carbonate segment is projected to benefit from rising prices, with the price reaching 172,000 RMB per ton as of January 28, 2026, leading to a significant recovery in profitability for this segment [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.554 billion RMB in 2025, 3.135 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.810 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 9, and 7 times [5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 9.696 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.342 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.96% from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.525 RMB in 2024 to 1.986 RMB in 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global natural gas industry has undergone a complete cycle from demand collapse and low prices to supply shocks and price surges, leading to a structural reshaping of global trade patterns [2][13] - By 2025, the global natural gas market is expected to be in a state of "tight balance" with demand growth slowing to 0.9% and supply remaining tight due to reliance on North American LNG projects [2][4] - The LNG market is entering a "super expansion cycle" from 2026 to 2030, with an expected cumulative addition of approximately 202 million tons of LNG capacity, primarily concentrated in North America and the Middle East [3][47] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2020-2024: From Supply Shock to Structural Reshaping of Trade Patterns - The global natural gas industry experienced extreme price fluctuations, with TTF spot prices rising from an average of about 4-5 USD/MMBtu in 2020 to 80-90 USD/MMBtu in August 2022, before falling back to around 10 USD/MMBtu by 2025 [13] - The EU's LNG import share increased from 9% in 2021 to about 19% in 2023, while the US became the largest LNG exporter with 88.4 million tons in 2024 [22] 2. Current Situation in 2025: Tight Balance and Regional Demand Differentiation - The global natural gas market is characterized by a "tight balance" with demand growth slowing to approximately 0.9%, driven by high prices and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4] - North American LNG supply is expected to increase significantly, with major contributions from projects like Plaquemines and Corpus Christi [32][35] 3. Outlook for 2026-2030: Supply Side - LNG "Super Expansion Cycle" - 2026 is projected to be a critical turning point for the global LNG "super expansion cycle," with an expected cumulative addition of about 202 million tons of LNG capacity, representing a 40% increase from 2025 [3][47] - The supply landscape is shifting from a "multi-polar" to a "US-Qatar dual-core" model, enhancing the pricing power of LNG in global markets [3][47] 4. Outlook for 2026-2030: Demand Side - Moderate Growth and Regional Differentiation - Global natural gas demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.56% from 2025 to 2030, with significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly driven by China [4][41] - European demand is anticipated to decline due to renewable energy substitution and decarbonization policies, while North American demand growth is projected to be below 1% [4][41] 5. US Gas Prices: Price Upcycle Driven by LNG Exports and Power Demand - The US natural gas market is transitioning from a tight balance to a shortage, with Henry Hub prices expected to rise significantly by 2027, supported by LNG exports and power demand from data centers [5][6] - The cost of new natural gas wells in the US is projected to stabilize between 3-3.5 USD/MMBtu, providing a long-term price floor for Henry Hub [5][6]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of the A-share market amidst multiple overseas risks and signals of regulatory easing in China, suggesting that the relationship between market performance and regulatory changes warrants further consideration [5][12] - It highlights the significant outperformance of the A-share market compared to other major indices, particularly the CSI 300, which has faced substantial redemption pressure [5][12] - The report suggests that investors should not overly worry about the CSI 300's performance, as it has already aligned with regulatory easing requirements, reducing the necessity for further pressure [5][12] Group 2: Economic Insights - China's exports continued to show strong performance in December, driven by overseas investment during a global easing cycle, positively impacting sectors like electrical and mechanical equipment [6][13] - Domestic consumption is recovering, with a rebound in per capita consumer spending in the fourth quarter, aligning with the report's annual strategy predictions [6][13] - The report notes that recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing real estate are expected to support synchronized recovery in both domestic and external demand [6][13] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Recommendations - The report identifies a dual focus for 2026 on physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments being essential [7][16] - Recommended sectors include physical assets such as copper, aluminum, tin, gold, lithium, and oil, alongside Chinese equipment export chains like electrical grid equipment and renewable energy [7][16] - The report also highlights sectors benefiting from capital market expansion and improving long-term asset returns, such as non-bank financials and consumer sectors like aviation and duty-free retail [7][16] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - **Yunnan Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ)**: The report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and a strong balance sheet, with potential for increased dividends [18] - **Hua Aluminum (600301.SH)**: The company is seen as a strong growth candidate due to rising tin and antimony prices and its position as a key beneficiary of metal consolidation in Guangxi [19] - **Yingliu Co. (603308.SH)**: The report anticipates a surge in global gas turbine demand, positioning the company to increase its market share in turbine blades [20] - **Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ)**: The company is recognized for its strong cash flow from cement operations and potential for significant dividends [21] - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in the entertainment market through IP incubation and diverse monetization strategies [22] - **China Duty Free Group (601888.SH)**: The company is projected to strengthen its market position in the duty-free sector, benefiting from increased inbound tourism and overseas expansion [24] - **China Southern Airlines (1055.HK)**: The airline is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics and a large fleet size [25] - **Li Auto (2015.HK)**: The company is focusing on advancements in AI and smart driving technology, with expectations for increased vehicle sales [26] - **Lante Optics (688127.SH)**: The company is positioned to benefit from strong demand in automotive and smart imaging sectors [27] - **InnoCare Pharma (9606.HK)**: The company is advancing in the ADC field with a robust pipeline and partnerships, with several products nearing clinical registration [29]

一、一级供给节奏 风险提示 上周（2026.1.19-2026.1.23，下同）地方政府债共发行 2315.71 亿元，其中，新增专项债 644.21 亿元，再融资专项 债为 1178.48 亿元。分募集资金用途来看，"置换隐性债务"、"普通/项目收益"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2026 年 1 月 23 日，1 月特殊再融资专项债发行约 2542.72 亿元，特殊再融资债占当月地方债发行规模的比例达到 29.45%。 发行定价方面，10 年、20 年及 30 年地方债发行利率分别下行 2.2BP、3.3BP、5.8BP，周度降幅较大；从利差角度 看，新券与同期限国债间利差有不小压缩，特别是 20 年、30 年品种利差已降至去年 8 月下旬以来最低水平。 分地区来看，年初四川、山东、浙江是地方债发行的主要区域，而山东、湖北发行 10 年以上地方债占比超过 80%， 且两地平均发行利率均在 2.3%以上，尤其是湖北省地方债发行利率达到 2.44%。 二、二级交易特征 地方债连续两周缩量上涨。上周 7-10 年、10 年以上地方债指数分别上涨 0.24%、0.72%，10 年以上地方债大幅跑赢高 等级信用 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the investment value of the "恒生A股电网设备指数" (HSCAUPG.HI), which is a thematic index designed to reflect the performance of China's A-share listed companies in the power grid equipment sector. The index was launched on February 28, 2022, and its methodology includes selecting companies with at least 40% of their revenue derived from energy infrastructure, power equipment, industrial components, and intelligent technologies. The index is weighted by free-float market capitalization, with a cap of 10% per constituent stock[37][38][39] - The index underwent a significant revision in 2025, reducing the number of constituent stocks from 100 to 50, focusing more on downstream power grid equipment manufacturing. This adjustment enhanced the index's purity and representation of the modernization and specialization of China's power grid equipment sector[37][38][39] - The index's sectoral distribution is highly concentrated, with approximately 70% allocated to power grid equipment, 13% to communication equipment, and smaller proportions to automotive components, metal materials, wind power equipment, and other industries. This structure ensures a strong focus on the modernization of power grid infrastructure, automation, and digitalization[39][41][42] - The index's internal structure is dominated by high-tech and high-certainty segments, such as transmission and transformation equipment (31% weight) and power grid automation equipment (21% weight). These segments benefit from China's "十五五" strategic planning, which emphasizes the construction of ultra-high voltage backbone networks, upgrades to main grid systems, and the integration of renewable energy bases[39][41][43] - The index has demonstrated strong performance, with a cumulative return of 335.48% since its base date, significantly outperforming the申万电网设备行业指数 (151.41%) and the上证指数 (64.96%). It exhibits high returns, moderate volatility, and superior risk-adjusted returns, with a Sharpe ratio of 4.42 over the past year and consistently above 1.0 over longer periods[55][56][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The acquisition of a 51.55% stake in Tefu International is expected to significantly enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders, with Tefu's projected revenue for 2025 at 8.187 billion RMB and net profit at 1.474 billion RMB [3]. - The company plans to invest 94.72 million USD (approximately 660 million RMB) in a new float glass project in Ghana, which is expected to have a production capacity of 600 tons per day [3]. - The lithium segment is projected to benefit from rising lithium carbonate prices, with a forecasted unit profit recovery in 2026 [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.554 billion RMB in 2025, 3.135 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.810 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 9, and 7 [5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 9.696 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.342 billion RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.06% [10]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve significantly, with a net profit growth rate of 54.41% in 2025 and 101.75% in 2026 [10].