Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 70.24 per share based on a 7.0x PS valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in the marketing and sales SaaS sector in China, with a diverse product matrix and strong growth potential driven by AI technology and market dynamics [2][3][4]. - The company has demonstrated a robust revenue growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of 31.1% from 2020 to 2024, and an expected revenue of HKD 23.66 billion in 2025 [4][62]. - The company’s AI+SaaS product offerings are expected to enhance customer payment willingness and drive revenue growth, supported by a growing number of large clients and an expanding sales team [9][40][41]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The diversification of traffic sources is leading to a trend towards holistic marketing, increasing the demand for marketing and sales tools. The rationalization of investment in the SaaS sector is clearing out smaller players, providing more space for leading domestic firms [2]. - The company has served over 200,000 enterprises and achieved a revenue of HKD 840 million in 2024, with a market share of approximately 2.4%, making it the industry leader [2][22]. Business Model and AI Strategy - The company’s product matrix and business model closely resemble that of HubSpot, which has achieved significant revenue growth in the U.S. market. The company aims to replicate this success in China [3][50]. - The company has launched several AI-driven products, including the Tforce marketing model and the AI-Agentforce platform, which are expected to enhance its service offerings and market competitiveness [9][35]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 23.66 billion, HKD 30.22 billion, and HKD 37.08 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.78%, 27.75%, and 22.71% [4][76]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with projections of HKD 0.70 billion, HKD 1.12 billion, and HKD 2.24 billion for the following years [4][70]. Product and Marketing Dimensions - The company’s AI+SaaS product matrix is continuously expanding, with 311 functional modules by the end of 2024, significantly enhancing customer engagement and revenue per client [9][33]. - The company is actively expanding its client base, particularly among government and large state-owned enterprises, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [9][40]. Competitive Landscape - The marketing and sales SaaS market in China remains fragmented, but the report anticipates a consolidation towards leading players as competition intensifies [2][23]. - The company is well-positioned to capture a larger market share due to its comprehensive product offerings and strong financial backing for R&D [2][26].

前期报告提要与市场聚焦 前期观点回顾：全球关税战升级，权益市场维持"高波动"状态。4 月 2 日美国"对等关税"发布后，中美之间关税 战持续升级，欧盟也宣布了对美国的关税反制措施。特朗普 2.0 关税政策将大概率加速美国"硬着陆"甚至"滞胀"。 国内基本面"转弱"可能正在逐步演绎，叠加海外风险攀升，将可能导致居民、企业资产负债表再次面临走弱风险。 我们维持市场"波动率"或趋于上行的观点，中小盘成长风格将"切换"至大盘价值防御，持续周期至少在1季度， 直至"盈利底"迹象出现。 当下市场聚焦：1、如何淡化特朗普关税"噪音"？ 2、三月国内经济数据及政治局会议解读？3、全球权益市场的 潜在风险及建议？4、增长型红利的的优势逻辑？5、如何系统性筛选增长型红利组合？ 重视美国"衰退"趋势下，权益市场潜在"高波动"风险 淡化特朗普"噪音"，重视"趋势"影响。三个核心趋势：一是美国经济衰退趋势不会因"关税"改变，当美国实际 失业率突破"4.4%"时基本确认美国经济已经衰退；二是美国"通胀高企"背后是 2020 年 QE 的"后遗症"，只能通 过"弱化"美国居民资产负债表解决，亦不会因"关税"而改变；三是美国"关税谈判"难以 ...

ETF 轮动因子跟踪 我们对前期使用 GBDT+NN 机器学习因子构建的 ETF 轮动策略进行跟踪测试，发现因子在样本外表现出色：上周 IC 值 达 20.91%，多头超额收益率为 0.61%。策略的年化超额收益率为 11.91%，信息比率为 0.68 ，超额最大回撤为 17.31%， 上周超额收益率 0.88%，本月以来超额收益率 1.44%，今年以来超额收益率 0.15%，近期表现优异。 高频因子跟踪 我们对前期挖掘的高频选股因子进行跟踪测试，发现因子在样本外整体表现出色。就上周表现来看，价格区间因子多 头超额收益率 1.01%，价量背离因子 0.04%，遗憾规避因子 0.26%，斜率凸性因子 0.24%。本月以来，价格区间因子多 头超额收益率为 0.90%，价量背离因子 1.65%，遗憾规避因子-0.17%，斜率凸性因子 0.07%。今年以来高频因子表现整 体都比较优秀，价格区间因子多头超额收益率 5.84%，价量背离因子 10.13%，斜率凸性因子-3.41%。遗憾规避因子表 现欠佳，多头超额收益率-0.30%。 其中价格区间因子衡量股票在日内不同价格区间成交的活跃程度，能体现出投资者对于股票未来走势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 5.14 billion, 5.64 billion, and 6.22 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 9.7%, and 10.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 549 million, 653 million, and 735 million RMB for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.4%, 19.0%, and 12.6% respectively [3][8] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1, the company reported revenue of 883 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.64%. This decline is attributed to ongoing pressure from real estate completions, inventory clearance ahead of national standard replacements, and a high base from the previous year [9] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.97 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.02%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 659 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 15.67% [8][10] Financial Metrics - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.745 RMB, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.59 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.30% in 2025 to 9.88% in 2027 [8] Market Analysis - The report indicates that the domestic civil and commercial alarm and evacuation business generated 5.4 billion RMB in revenue, down 9.54% year-on-year. However, it is anticipated that this segment will stabilize and recover in Q2 [9] - The overseas business revenue increased by 20.46% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery [9] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential growth opportunities in residential renovations, smart fire equipment upgrades, and the integration of remote monitoring and safety systems [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 654 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million RMB, down 6.59% year-on-year. However, the decline in revenue and profit has narrowed compared to Q4 2024, where revenue decreased by 16.82% and net profit by 44.42% [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from national policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, particularly in the furniture machinery sector, which may lead to a recovery in demand and performance [3]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 30.93%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.09 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.30 percentage points, indicating improved profitability despite weak industry demand [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million RMB, down 5.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, down 6.59% year-on-year. The gross margin was 30.93%, reflecting a minor improvement [2]. Operational Analysis - The decline in revenue and profit has slowed compared to the previous quarter, with government policies expected to stimulate demand in the furniture machinery sector, potentially leading to a recovery [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with a gross margin of 36.70% from international operations, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 29.89% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.008 billion RMB, 3.450 billion RMB, and 3.973 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 608 million RMB, 720 million RMB, and 841 million RMB. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 12, 10, and 8 times [5].

25 年 1-2 月行业数据向好，后续季度报表有望好转。根据机床工 具工业协会数据，25 年 1-2 月金属切削机床行业营收同比增长 12.1%，金属加工机床新签订单同比增长 26.2%，在手订单同比增 长 15.2%，行业数据有所好转。根据新华社信息，在 4 月 18 日举 行的国务院常务会议上提出"要锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆 周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优 结构提质量，做强国内大循环。"在经济刺激政策推动下行业景气 度有望继续回暖。考虑公司收入确认有一定滞后性，后续季度报 表有望好转。 四期产能逐步投放，关注新品的未来成长前景。公司四期产能建 设持续推进，设计产能 7 亿，预计 25 年上半年投产。伴随产能扩 张，公司将有更多新品投放市场，包括适用于人形机器人减速器、 丝杠加工的卧式车床系列产品等，未来有较好成长前景。 盈利预测、估值与评级 预计公司 25 至 27 年分别实现归母净利润 3.7/4.27/4.83 亿元， 对应当前 PE18X/15X/13X，考虑公司后续有望受益行业景气度复 苏，新品成长前景较好,维持"增持"评级。 业绩摘要 公司 2025 年 4 月 2 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 28 日公司发布 25 年一季报，1Q25 年实现营收 17.93 亿元，同比增长 10.06%；实现归母净利润 2.46 亿元，同比增长 30.76%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.26 亿元，同比增长 37.35%。 经营分析 一季度毛利率显著提升，推动业绩高增长。1Q25 公司实现毛利率 32.79%，同比提升 2.73pcts；实现净利率 14.01%，同比提升 2.15pcts，盈利能力显著提升，业绩表现优异。 盈利能力的提升有持续性，后续继续看好。公司近年毛利率整体 呈上升趋势，我们认为一方面由于公司产品结构持续优化，快反 王、过梗王等新品附加值更高，随着收入占比提升拉动毛利率提 升，同时公司通过新品放量也实现了产品 SKU 的缩减，单机成本 有望维持下降趋势，毛利率后续还有进一步提升空间；一方面公 司目前积极布局海外市场，24 年公司出口实现毛利率 37.27%，同 比提升 3.88pcts，高于内销毛利率 9.12pcts，未来海外收入占比 提升也能推动盈利能力进一步上行。 持续看好公司机器人业务布局。根据公司公告信息，随着 AI 人工 智能及人形机器人技术的快速演进 ...

另外海外方面，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长 Beth Hammack,在 4 月 24 日发言时表明如果有明确经济走弱方面的证据， 美联储最早可能在 6 月采取降息的行动。受此消息的推动，海外市场定价降息预期的程度提升，10 年期美债利率有所 回落。若短期贸易冲突舆情不继续加剧，我们预期海外资金风险偏好会有所回升。所以对于未来一周，在国内外政策 端和情绪面的支持下，我们战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和电子等板块。 本周央行通过 7 天逆回购投放了 8820 亿元，到期 8080 亿元，整体通过公开市场操作净投放 740 亿元。短端 1 周 SHIBOR 和 DR007，分别报 1.638%和 1.6587%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 5.29 BP。1 个月 SHIBOR 和 3 个月 SHIBOR 分别报 1.747%和 1.75%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 1.1 BP。 结合经济面和流动性来看，对于未来一周，我们建议核心仓位维持在大盘价值，而战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和 电子等板块。从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，4 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型 对 4 月份 ...

电子板块：Q1 业绩陆续发布，关注上半年业绩增长确定性方向。受到 Ai 需求拉货持续旺盛、消费电子国补及汽车销 量增长的带动，电子板块一季度业绩淡季不淡，多个细分板块公司业绩超预期，如 AI-PCB、算力芯片、SOC 芯片、苹 果产业链、CIS 芯片、家电芯片等。AI-PCB 方向重点受益的胜宏科技、沪电股份一季度业绩大幅增长，其中胜宏科技 指引二季度业绩环比一季度增长不低于 30%。SOC 芯片重点公司瑞芯微一季度利润同比增长 209%，恒玄科技一季度净 利润同比增长同比增长 590%，还有其他相关公司也表现亮眼。苹果链龙头立讯精密一季度营收同比增长 17.9%， 净 利润同比增长 23.1%，并指引上半年净利润同比增长 20-25%，苹果链公司蓝特光学、东山精密、蓝思科技等一季度业 绩也实现了快速增长。CIS 芯片重点公司思特威一季度业绩同比增长 1264%。我们研判这些方向二季度业绩高增长有 望持续，建议继续重点关注。台积电在 2025 年北美技术研讨会上透露，公司有望在今年下半年开始大规模生产 N2（2nm 级）芯片，这是首个依赖环栅（GAA）纳米片晶体管的生产技术，与 N3E 相比，N2 性能提升 ...