浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 浦银国际 公司研究 比亚迪电子 （285.HK） 比亚迪电子（285.HK）：下半年利润有 望进一步释放 重申"买入"评级，下调目标价至 34.2 港元，潜在升幅 19%。 重申比亚迪电子的"买入"评级：比亚迪电子今年下半年的利润有 望进一步的释放。主要的驱动力来自于：1）安卓手机，尤其是高 端手机的需求增长，2）捷普并表带来的利润增长，3）国际客户业 务体量增长带来的利润，4）汽车电子增长带来的贡献。展望 2025 年，这四大驱动力有望延续。而且，公司布局的 AI 服务器业务有 望在今明两年开始放量。比亚迪电子将在智能手机、新能源车等终 端需求上行周期中，提升资产利用率，从而带动利润趋势向上。我 们预期比亚迪电子在 2024 年、2025 年净利润将达到 40.6 亿元、 47.0 亿元，对应 17.3x、14.9x 目标价市盈率，目标估值具备吸引力。 二季度及上半年业绩回顾：在今年二季度，比亚迪电子收入为 421 亿元，同比增长 41%，环比增长 15%；毛利率为 6.8%，同比下降 1.2 个百分点，环比下降 0.1 个百分点；净利润为 9.07 亿元，同比下降 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tehai International (9658.HK/HDL.US) with a target price of HKD 16.6 for the Hong Kong stock and USD 21.3 for the US stock, reflecting a potential upside of 30.7% and 37.4% respectively [1][3][4]. Core Insights - Tehai International's management has a long-term vision to enhance customer dining experiences, expand restaurant networks, improve operational performance, and explore new business formats, aiming to become a leading global integrated dining group [1]. - The company has seen a significant improvement in table turnover rates, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5 to 3.8 times in 1H24, attributed to enhanced employee KPI assessments and optimized business processes [1]. - The company plans to accelerate store openings starting in 2025, with a focus on Southeast Asia and North America, where there is still considerable room for growth [1]. - The management aims to enhance profitability through supply chain optimization, despite an increase in employee costs due to a focus on service quality [1]. - Tehai International is pursuing a multi-brand strategy to drive long-term growth, which may provide additional revenue streams and operational synergies [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 686 million in 2023 to USD 797 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.2% [5][7]. - The net profit is expected to stabilize at USD 24 million in 2024, with a significant increase to USD 67 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 181.3% [5][8]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 65.9% through 2026, while the operating profit margin is expected to improve from 4.2% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2026 [5][6][7]. - The average table turnover rate in Southeast Asia is currently at 3.7, indicating that the market is not yet saturated [1]. Market Positioning - Tehai International's current market capitalization is approximately HKD 8.233 billion and USD 1.018 billion, with a trading range of HKD 8.0-18.3 and USD 13.9-30.0 over the past year [3][4]. - The company is positioned favorably compared to its peers, with a projected PE ratio of 21.6x for H shares in 2024 and 15.7x in 2025 [9].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 迈瑞医疗 （ 300760.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 迈瑞医疗（300760.CH）：国内业务受行 业整顿影响稍显乏力，公司有意持续提高 分红比例 公司 1H24 收入增速稍显乏力，主因国内业务受行业整顿影响增速平 缓，海外业务则继续维持稳健增长。目前设备更新相关采购仍未大规 模开启，公司 2H24E 业绩将很大程度上取决于政策落地进展。此外， 公司宣布中期派息人民币 4.06 元/股（按公告当日收盘价计算，股息 率为 1.8%），并有意持续提高分红比例。维持"买入"评级，调整目 标价至人民币 350 元。 1H24 海外业务稳健，国内业务受行业整顿影响稍显乏力；剔除汇兑 损益影响，归母净利增速仍>20%。1H/2Q24 收入同比+11%/+10%（国 内+7%/+7%，海外+18%/+16%），其中 1H24 1）生命信息与支持收入 同比-8%；2）体外诊断收入同比+28%；3）医学影像收入同比+16%。 2Q24 整体延续了 1Q24"海外好于国内，耗材好于设备"的趋势， 主因在国内医疗行业整顿背景下设备采购招投标推迟，且设备更新 项目相关采购仍未大规模落地，未能有 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 比亚迪股份 （1211.HK） /比亚迪 （ 002594.CH） 公司研究 | 新能源汽车行业 比亚迪股份（1211.HK）/比亚迪（002594.CH）： 新能源车销量增长，利润有释放空间 我们重申比亚迪的"买入"评级。略微上调比亚迪 2024/25 年盈利预 测，上调比亚迪股份（1211.HK）目标价至 280.5 港元，潜在升幅 16%； 上调比亚迪（002594.CH）目标价至人民币 297.5 元，潜在升幅 19%。 重申比亚迪的"买入"评级：比亚迪二季度新能源车销量达 98.7 万辆， 同环比均大幅成长。规模效应扩大对冲国内降价，推动单车利润环比 大幅提升。我们维持此前的判断，即比亚迪有较强的能力，可以捍卫 份额提升销量。作为全球新能源车龙头，比亚迪在规模、成本、技术 保持领先地位。在二季度以及 7 月、8 月，公司及行业促销力度缓和 的情况下，公司利润有机会释放。我们因此略微上调 2024 年、2025 年 盈利预测。比亚迪股份目前市盈率 15.4x，在份额稳定、销量增长的背 景下，估值具备上移的基础。因此，我们重申比亚迪的"买入"评级。 二季度业绩回顾及盈利 ...

2024-08-30 8 浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 USD 90.0 USD 200.0 USD 117.6 USD 147.6 英伟达 （NVDA.US） 公司研究 | 科技行业 英伟达（NVDA.US）：二季度业绩超预 期，四季度 Blackwell 产品出货 维持目标价 147.6 美元，潜在升幅 25%，重申"买入"评级。 重申英伟达的"买入"评级：首先，英伟核心的数据中心业务依然增 长强劲。Hopper 平台的 GPU 需求还是较为强劲，公司 2025 下半年财 年需求高于上半年。同时，Blackwell 平台的 GPU 将在 FY4Q25，也就 是今年四季度正式出货，收入规模预计达到数十亿美元。Blackwell 的 产能供应偏紧，并且明年维持偏紧状态。其次，英伟达在汽车智驾、 游戏、笔电、PC 等下游的芯片需求强劲推动下，过去几个季度相关业 务收入恢复增长。综合来看，虽然公司数据中心业务逐步回归供需平 衡导致业绩超预期空间减少，但是高确定性的高增长依然是公司利润 的助推器。因此，随着今年四季度 Blackwell 产品正式出货，市场对于公 司基本面的预期有望在三季度基础上再次抬头，股价有 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 亚朵集团（ATAT.US）：逆势加速扩张， 股东回报计划着力提振信心 浦银国际 公司研究 亚朵集团 2Q24 录得收入人民币 18 亿元，同比增长 64.5%，略高于我 们的预期。公司收入的快速增长得益于加盟门店数量以及零售业务收 入的快速扩张。公司也上调公司全年开店和收入指引，并推出 3 年股 东回报计划，彰显了公司对于全年业绩的确定性，也提振了股东信心。 我们维持亚朵集团"买入"评级，上调目标价至 24.0 美元。 单季开店数量创新高，上调收入和开店指引：截至 2Q24 末，亚朵集 团在营门店数量达到 1,412 家。2Q24 共新开 123 家门店，是上市以 来新开门店最多的季度，助力亚朵完成 2025 年门店数量达到 2000 家的目标。同时公司上调 2024 年全年开店指引至 400 家（原为 360 家），并上调公司收入目标至同比增长 48%-52%（原为 40%）。上调 开店和收入指引反映了在竞争加剧的市场中，亚朵的品牌力和产品 力受到加盟商的认可，也彰显了管理层对业绩达成和公司运营成效 的信心。 高基数令运营数据承压：由于 2023 年疫情管控措施的放开， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 1H24 reached RMB 39.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.8%. Product revenue specifically was RMB 38.1 billion, up 55.1% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with previous announcements [3]. - The adjusted non-IFRS net loss for 1H24 was RMB 1.6 billion, a reduction of 15.9% year-on-year and 50.6% quarter-on-quarter, which was better than both the report's and market's expectations [3]. - The strong growth in product revenue is attributed to the robust performance of Tyvyt and three biosimilars, as well as the successful launch of new products like Sapitinib and Huiranzhuo [3]. - The company aims for EBITDA breakeven by 2025 and projects a revenue target of RMB 20 billion by 2027, with an expected revenue growth of approximately 30% in the second half of 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2022, the company reported revenue of RMB 4.56 billion, which increased to RMB 6.21 billion in 2023, and is projected to reach RMB 8.58 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.2% [7]. - The adjusted net loss is expected to narrow from RMB 515 million in 2023 to RMB 328 million in 2024, with a return to profitability projected in 2025 with a net profit of RMB 1.7 billion [7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 83.0% by 2024, up from 81.7% in 2023 [9]. Research and Development Pipeline - The company is advancing its R&D pipeline, with key updates expected at upcoming conferences regarding IBI363 and other assets [3]. - The management has indicated that the sales efficiency of the oncology pipeline will improve, leading to a decrease in sales and administrative expenses in the second half of 2024 and beyond [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康方生物 (9926.HK) with a target price of 63 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price of 49.1 HKD [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's 1H24 performance is largely in line with market expectations, achieving revenue of 1.02 billion RMB, with product revenue of 939 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24% [2][3]. - The report highlights the upcoming WCLC conference, where interim analysis data for the K drug head-to-head study in lung cancer is expected to be announced, serving as a key catalyst for the company's stock [2][3]. - The company has initiated seven new Phase III clinical trials in the first half of 2024, focusing on its core assets, 卡度尼利 and 依沃西, with a projected total R&D expenditure of 1.3 to 1.4 billion RMB for the year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H24, 康方生物 reported a gross margin of 91.3%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 239 million RMB, compared to a net profit of 253 million RMB in 1H23 [2][3]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents stood at 5.69 billion RMB as of the end of the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024E at 2.39 billion RMB, 2025E at 3.45 billion RMB, and 2026E at 5.41 billion RMB, with significant year-on-year growth anticipated [3][4]. Clinical Development and Upcoming Catalysts - The report outlines several key data readouts expected in the second half of 2024, including interim analysis data for 依沃西 in the AK112-303 trial and data for 卡度尼利 in the 1L CC trial [2][3]. - The company is also preparing for potential inclusion in the 2024 medical insurance negotiations, which could significantly boost the sales volume of its drugs [2][3]. Valuation and Financial Estimates - The report adjusts the net loss estimates for 2024E to 540 million RMB, with slight adjustments to future profit estimates for 2025E and 2026E [2][3]. - The valuation is based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Hold" due to concerns over limited profit growth potential in the slowing dairy market [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry with strong brand power and solid fundamentals. However, the slowing market demand raises concerns about future profit growth [1]. - The company's revenue growth is expected to remain in the mid-single digits over the next 2-3 years, with profit growth projected in the mid to high single digits. The current valuation lacks sufficient cost-effectiveness [1]. - The future revenue growth is contingent on the recovery of end-demand, with a cautious approach to shipment schedules in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The company aims to increase shareholder returns, transitioning from a growth stock to a value stock, with a dividend payout ratio not less than 70% [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 123,171 million RMB, with a projected decline to 121,203 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of -3.9% [2]. - Net profit for 2022 was 9,431 million RMB, expected to rise to 12,319 million RMB by 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [2]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 12.9x for 2024 and 12.2x for 2026 [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 18.1% in 2022 to 20.9% in 2024 [2]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's liquid milk revenue declined by 13% year-on-year, while excluding inventory clearance effects, a single-digit decline is anticipated [1][5]. - The company reported a 7.3% year-on-year increase in milk powder revenue in the first half of 2024, outperforming most peers [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 34.4%, showing an improvement from 32.8% in the first half of 2023 [5][6]. Market Outlook - The company faces challenges in enhancing profitability due to limited cost reduction opportunities, with management targeting a stable profit margin for 2024 [1]. - The overall industry outlook remains uncertain, impacting the company's long-term revenue growth prospects [1].

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 浦银国际 宏观洞察 月度中国宏观洞察 月度中国宏观洞察：静待经济动能改善 7 月发布的经济数据以及 8 月高频数据反映经济动能仍偏疲软。需求 端经济数据喜忧参半——7 月消费品零售数据和 CPI 数据有所改善且 好于预期，房产销售跌幅收窄，然而这几个数据改善的可持续性均存 疑。需求端其余指标，包括固定资产投资、信贷和出口数据均弱于预 期。需求的疲软持续影响供给端，导致工业生产和制造业投资增速 7 月 减慢。而 8 月高频数据显示冷热不均的内需复苏仍在持续。 政策支持 8 月较为平静，之后预计继续加码。我们并不认为 8 月的政 策空窗期意味着 7 月下旬开始的新一轮政策刺激已出尽，政府或继续 推出增量政策措施以稳经济：1. 货币政策已转向宽松，逆周期调节将 继续开展。我们维持年内 25-50 个基点降准的预测。若现有政策刺激 成效不及预期，央行在今年或再降息 10 个基点。2. 财政政策的重点似 乎更倾向于促消费和化解风险，不过我们预计国家发改委仍会推出更 多储备项目以防止基建投资增速下滑过快。促消费政策重点或将放在 7 月加码政策的执行和成效观察上。3. 房地产政策重点仍 ...