Key Points - The report highlights that the RMB exchange rate stabilization target for 2024 has been successfully achieved, but there is increasing pressure for exchange rate adjustments [4] - In 2024, cross-border capital flows shifted from a net outflow in the previous year to a net inflow, primarily due to increased foreign currency payment surpluses and merchandise trade payment surpluses [4] - Despite a third consecutive year of net outflows in securities investments, the outflow pressure remains controllable, with foreign capital reducing stock holdings but continuing to increase holdings in RMB-denominated bonds [4] - The report indicates that the surplus in banks' foreign currency payments has increased, but the motivation for currency purchases in the market has also risen, leading to an increase in banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales deficits [4] - The report notes that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between China and the US, as well as the deepening of the US-China interest rate spread [4] - Under a moderately accommodative monetary policy framework, the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for January, including Yunda Co., China Petroleum, and Ningde Times, indicating a focus on diverse sectors such as logistics, energy, and technology [1] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential of Minxin Co., projecting a revenue increase of 28.8% to 36.9% year-on-year for 2024, driven by breakthroughs in pressure products and cost reduction measures [2][5] Company Performance - Minxin Co. expects to achieve an annual revenue of 480 to 510 million yuan for 2024, with a significant reduction in net loss by 55.8% to 70.5% [2][5] - The company anticipates its first quarterly profit in Q4 2024, with projected revenue of 143 to 173 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 51.8% [5] - The growth in revenue is attributed to increased sales of pressure products, improved gross margins, and effective cost control measures [5] Industry Trends - The report notes a positive outlook for high signal-to-noise ratio silicon microphone products, driven by the demand from domestic smartphone manufacturers [6] - Minxin Co. is expected to benefit from new product developments in various sectors, including barometers, automotive applications, and humanoid robots, indicating a broadening of its market reach [7] - The company has made progress in penetrating the domestic market for barometers and is exploring opportunities in the automotive sector with Tier 1 manufacturers [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][26]. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery in 2024 is stable, with a GDP growth of 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the development target. The total retail sales of consumer goods in December reached 4.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4][3]. - The service industry PMI in December was 52.0%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month. The overall economic operation is stable, with various consumption categories showing signs of recovery [4][3]. - Per capita disposable income and consumption expenditure for residents increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with rural residents experiencing higher growth rates than urban residents [4][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - In Q4 2024, GDP reached 37.37 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. The total retail sales for the year amounted to 48.79 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [4][3]. - The retail sales growth in Q4 was supported by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods, contributing approximately 1 percentage point to the total retail sales growth [4][3]. Consumer Confidence and Spending - The average urban unemployment rate for the year was 5.1%, slightly below the target of 5.5%. However, consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 86.20, indicating a need for improvement [4][3]. - The top three categories for year-on-year growth in consumption were other goods and services, education and cultural entertainment, and transportation and communication [4][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and business travel, such as Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism. Other recommended companies include Tianmuhu, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and various hotel chains [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve an annual revenue of RMB 480 million to RMB 510 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.8% to 36.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between -RMB 45 million and -RMB 30 million, indicating a reduction in losses by 55.8% to 70.5% [4][9] - The company is experiencing growth driven by breakthroughs in pressure products, which are expected to enhance revenue and gross margins. Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures are also yielding positive results [4][6] - The company is well-positioned for growth in sectors such as AI edge products, pressure sensors, automotive applications, and humanoid robots, maintaining a strong growth outlook [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue increase from RMB 373 million in 2023 to RMB 502 million in 2024, and further to RMB 751 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34.6% and 49.7% respectively [8] - The net profit is expected to improve from -RMB 102 million in 2023 to -RMB 36 million in 2024, and then to RMB 39 million in 2025, indicating a significant turnaround [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -RMB 0.64 in 2024, RMB 0.70 in 2025, and RMB 1.99 in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 99.9 and 35.0 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [6][8] Market Position and Product Development - The company has made significant progress in high signal-to-noise ratio silicon microphone products, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in AI mobile applications [9] - New product developments in pressure sensors, automotive applications, and humanoid robots are anticipated to contribute positively to revenue growth in 2025 [9] - The company has already achieved breakthroughs with domestic clients in pressure sensors and is expanding its market reach [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1]. Core Insights - In 2024, China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leadership for the 15th consecutive year, with a completion rate of 55.7%, holding 63.1% of global orders and 74.1% of new orders [2][15]. - Shanghai's automobile exports are projected to grow by 26.6% year-on-year in 2024, with over 1.66 million vehicles exported [2][16]. - The number of inbound and outbound travelers in China is expected to reach 610 million in 2024, a 43.9% increase year-on-year [2][17]. - Shentong Express anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, estimated between 950 million to 1.05 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 178.84% to 208.19% compared to the previous year [2][22]. Industry Dynamics Shipbuilding - China's shipbuilding industry continues to dominate with over half of the global ship deliveries in 2024, and a significant increase in green energy ship orders [2][15]. - The profitability of the shipbuilding sector has improved, with a profit margin of 7.52% reported by November 2024 [15]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a peak in demand, particularly during the Spring Festival, with daily volumes exceeding 5.5 billion packages [2][23]. - In November 2024, the express delivery business volume increased by 26.15% year-on-year, with revenues rising by 15.18% [52]. Air Travel - The average daily flights in China have increased, with a 42.25% year-on-year rise in international flights during the second week of January 2025 [80]. - The domestic flight utilization rate has also improved, indicating a recovery in air travel demand [80]. Port Operations - In 2024, China's ports handled 160.41 billion tons of cargo, marking a 10.6% increase year-on-year, with container throughput also rising [50]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [3]. - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors and cruise shipping [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate industry, indicating a "stronger than market" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the current direction of the industry is towards "stabilizing and stopping the decline," with expectations for policies to become more effective and supportive of market activity in the future [3]. - It notes that new home transaction volumes have shown a narrowing decline, while second-hand home transactions have turned negative on a month-over-month basis, indicating a mixed market performance [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including the adjustment of housing supply systems and the promotion of urban renewal projects [3]. Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 11-17, 2025, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 232.4 million square meters, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 2.0% but a year-over-year increase of 6.5% [5][11]. - The report details that first-tier cities experienced a year-over-year transaction growth reduction of 19.2 percentage points, while second-tier cities saw an increase of 3.8 percentage points [5][11]. 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - The second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 198.6 million square meters, with a month-over-month decline of 3.1% and a year-over-year increase of 8.5%, indicating a significant reduction in growth compared to previous weeks [5][11]. 3. Inventory and Depletion Cycle - The new home inventory in 12 cities was 9.107 million square meters, with a month-over-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-over-year decrease of 12.5% [5][36]. - The average depletion cycle for new home inventory across 12 cities is 11.9 months, which has decreased slightly from the previous month [5][36]. 4. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,083.7 million square meters, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 39.3% and a year-over-year decline of 9.6% [5][7]. - The average land price per square meter was 4,911 yuan, showing a significant month-over-month decrease of 71.1% but a year-over-year increase of 10.1% [5][7]. 5. Investment and Financing - The total issuance of domestic bonds in the real estate sector was 195.2 billion yuan, representing a month-over-month increase of 25.0% but a year-over-year decrease of 0.3% [5][8]. - The report indicates that the net financing amount for the sector was 35.3 billion yuan, highlighting a challenging financing environment despite some improvements [5][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and firms benefiting from local government debt relief strategies [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [25] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in 2024 faced significant challenges, with national commodity housing sales area returning to 2009 levels and investment decline reaching historical highs [1] - December 2024 saw a slight year-on-year decrease in sales area by 0.5%, while sales amount increased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance [2] - The overall real estate market is expected to continue facing adjustment pressures in 2024, but positive signals from government policies may lead to a narrowing of sales decline in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Housing Sales - December 2024 saw a total sales area of 1.13 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a sales amount of 1.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The average sales price of commodity housing in December was 10,318 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [9] - The eastern region showed improvement in sales volume and price, while the overall market still faced downward pressure [2] 2. Commodity Residential Inventory - By the end of 2024, the broad inventory of commodity residential properties was 1.79 billion square meters, down 2.5% from the previous month and down 13.4% year-on-year [3] - The de-stocking cycle was 26.0 months, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [3] 3. Real Estate Development Investment, New Starts, and Completion - In December 2024, real estate development investment amounted to 664.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.3% [12] - New construction area in December was 6.585 million square meters, down 23.0% year-on-year, although the decline was slightly less than in previous months [6] - The completion area in December was 25.59 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.4% [15] 4. Developer Financing - In December, the total funds available to developers decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, with both housing and non-housing funds showing weakness [6] - The total funds available for developers in 2024 was 10.77 trillion yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on the recovery of fundamental data following the implementation of supportive policies, and long-term attention on opportunities arising from urban renewal and land acquisition [6] - Recommended companies include those with strong liquidity, high market share in key cities, and those benefiting from debt relief and policy support [6]

24 年新房房价下跌 4.5% ，二手房下跌 7.4% ，一线城市二手房跌 幅最大 国家统计局发布 2024 年 12 月份 70 个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。70 大中城市新房价格环比下降 0.1%；二 手房价格环比下降 0.3%。 核心观点 投资建议 -房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 1 月 21 日 强于大市 房地产行业 2024 年 12 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 相关研究报告 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主线 ——房地产行业 2025 年年度策略》（2024/12/13） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿及稳 定房地产市场的决心》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政政策； 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu @bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷利率 下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标准》 （2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 1 月 21 日 | | | 1 月金股组合 股票代码 股票名称 002120.SZ 韵达股份 中银晨会聚焦-20250121 601857.SH 中国石油 688019.SH 安集科技 ■重点关注 300750.SZ 宁德时代 688085.SH 三友医疗 000848.SZ 承德露露 605108.SH 同庆楼 【电子】地平线机器人-W*苏凌瑶。端到端有望推动全球智驾市场向万亿级 空间增长，国产芯片正在对海外龙头形成追击之势。地平线为主机厂和 Tier1 提供软硬件一体的性价比解决方案，有望在智驾下沉趋势中占得先机。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | | 3244.38 | 0.08 | | 深证成指 | | 10256.40 | 0.94 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3829.68 | 0.45 | | 中小 | 100 | 6297.18 | 0.93 | | 创业板指 | | 2104.73 | 1.81 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Horizon Robotics-W (09660 HK) with a target price of HKD 3 72 [1] Core Views - Horizon Robotics is positioned to benefit from the global intelligent driving market which is expected to grow to a trillion-level market size The company provides cost-effective integrated hardware and software solutions to OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers making it well-positioned to capitalize on the trend of intelligent driving technology penetration into lower-tier markets [4][6] - The company's valuation is based on projected revenues of RMB 2 375 billion RMB 3 561 billion and RMB 5 954 billion for 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively with corresponding PS ratios of 19 1x 12 7x and 7 6x [6] Industry Overview - The global intelligent driving market is expected to grow significantly with the adoption of end-to-end autonomous driving technology The market size for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and high-level autonomous driving solutions is projected to increase from RMB 619 billion in 2023 to RMB 10 172 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 49% [9] - End-to-end autonomous driving which uses neural network models to replace traditional modular designs is expected to drive the market forward with significant improvements in data processing efficiency and deployment lightweighting [9] Company Analysis - Horizon Robotics has established itself as a leading provider of intelligent driving solutions in China with a 35 9% market share in the domestic OEM ADAS solutions market in the first half of 2024 [75] - The company's hardware and software integrated solutions cover a wide range of applications from low to high-end autonomous driving with products like Horizon Mono Horizon Pilot and Horizon SuperDrive [20] - Horizon Robotics has a strong R&D team with over 1 500 employees in intelligent driving hardware and software development and has accumulated more than 1 900 global intellectual property rights [23] Financial Performance - Horizon Robotics' revenue has shown rapid growth with revenues of RMB 4 67 billion RMB 9 06 billion RMB 15 52 billion and RMB 9 35 billion for 2021 2022 2023 and the first half of 2024 respectively [29] - Despite being in a loss-making phase the company's net loss has been narrowing with net losses of RMB 20 64 billion RMB 87 20 billion RMB 67 39 billion and RMB 50 98 billion for the same periods [31] Competitive Landscape - Horizon Robotics is competing with global leaders like NVIDIA and Tesla in the intelligent driving domain control chip market In 2024 Horizon's Journey 5 and Journey 3 chips achieved market shares of 5 4% and 2 5% respectively in China [66] - The company's Journey 6P chip with a computing power of 560 TOPS surpasses NVIDIA's Orin-X and Tesla's FSD 4 0 in performance positioning Horizon as a strong competitor in the high-end market [73] Future Outlook - Horizon Robotics is expected to benefit from the trend of high-end intelligent driving technology penetrating into the mid-tier market particularly in vehicles priced below RMB 200 000 The company's cost-effective solutions are well-suited for this segment [83] - The company's Horizon SuperDrive solution combined with the Journey 6 chip offers a high-performance intelligent driving system that is expected to drive future growth [85]