1 2025 年第一季度大类资产配置：A 股具备配 置价值，关注科技和扩内需方向 2025-02-13 2 经济金融高频数据周报（02.10-02.14）2025- 02-10 3 经济金融高频数据周报（02.05-02.07）2025- 02-05 证券研究报告 策略专题 2025 年 02 月 17 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 上证指数 沪深300 叶彬 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530523080001 yebin@hnchasing.com 相关报告 经济金融高频数据周报（02.17-02.21） 投资要点 全球经济及通胀：经济活跃度上行，通胀震荡走高。 全球经济活跃度有所上行，2025 年 02 月 14日波罗的海干散货指数 (BDI)当周平均值为 791.6 点，较上周增加 17.60 点；通胀水平震荡 走高，CRB 商品价格指数当周平均值为 31 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3332.48, down 0.42% [2][4] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6386.37 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.86 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.25 [3] Industry Dynamics - The domestic silicon wafer market is showing signs of recovery, with stable prices for silicon wafers [29][31] - Amorepacific Group reported a significant increase in operating profit by 103.8% year-on-year, marking its first positive growth in years [32] - Coty Inc. reported a slight decline in net revenue of 1% year-on-year for the first half of fiscal 2025, with a focus on the growth of its high-end fragrance business [34][36] Company Tracking - Tianzhihang (688277.SH) has received medical device registration for its orthopedic surgical navigation system, enhancing its product offerings [37] - Shennong Group (605296.SH) reported a 19.37% year-on-year increase in pig sales revenue, amounting to 376 million [40] - Anfu Technology (603031.SH) anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2024, driven by strong overseas growth and new production capacity [41]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.30%, closing at 3346.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.64%, closing at 10749.46 points[5] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17157.57 billion yuan, up 7.57% from the previous week[5] - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate closed at 7.2654, with a decline of 0.32%[5] Sector Focus - The DeepSeek market is shifting focus towards media and AI applications, with the Hang Seng-Hushen Connect AH Share Premium Index currently at 135.26 points, indicating a relative increase in the value of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks[5][15] - The media and computer sectors led the market, with gains of 9.54% and 7.77% respectively, while 29 other sectors had weekly gains below 3.6%[18] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on media and AI applications, particularly following the performance of DeepSeek-R1, which is comparable to OpenAI's models, potentially reshaping the global AI industry[16][25] - Key areas for observation include policy support before March, changes in trading volume, and the performance of sentiment indicator stocks like Light Media and Daily Interaction[16] Economic Indicators - In January, new social financing reached 7.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 583.3 billion yuan, with government bonds and corporate loans being the main contributors[20] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.0% year-on-year, while M1 growth was at 0.4%, indicating a need for continued policy support to stimulate demand[20][23] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic downturns, volatility in overseas markets, and deteriorating Sino-US relations[49]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate industry, indicating a long-term maintenance of a loose policy environment aimed at stabilizing the market [7][22]. Core Insights - The central government has shown a strong commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with a series of supportive policies introduced since September 2024, emphasizing structural adjustments [7][12]. - The effectiveness of new policies is evident, with improvements in market indicators such as increased long-term loans and enhanced liquidity for real estate companies, although the sustainability of these effects remains to be seen [7][24]. - The real estate market is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with further policy optimization expected to focus on both supply and demand sides [7][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Background and Key Measures of New Real Estate Policies - The shift from tight to loose policy began in 2022, with significant measures introduced in May 2024, including the "5.17" policy, which initially boosted market activity but showed limited sustained impact [10][11]. - Following the September 2024 Politburo meeting, a series of supportive policies were rolled out, indicating a more proactive stance from the government [12][13]. 2. Evaluation of New Policy Effects - Key measures such as interest rate cuts and the expansion of the "white list" financing projects have been identified as having the most significant impact on the market [24]. - The average interest rate for personal housing loans was approximately 3.11% as of December 2024, with potential for further reductions, which would lower borrowing costs for consumers [25][28]. 3. Future Market Trends and Policy Focus - The sustainability of the recent market recovery is uncertain, but the real estate sector is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth in 2025 [7][22]. - Future policies are likely to emphasize optimizing land acquisition mechanisms, controlling land sales, and supporting mergers and acquisitions among real estate companies [7][22]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Continuous monitoring of transaction volumes and housing prices in high-capacity cities is recommended, with a focus on leading real estate companies that have a broad presence in core urban areas [7][22]. - The ongoing push for mergers and acquisitions in the real estate sector presents potential investment opportunities, particularly for smaller firms facing challenges in the current market environment [7][22].

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3346.72 | 0.43 | | 深证成指 | 10749.46 | 1.16 | | 创业板指 | 2215.30 | 1.80 | | 科创 50 | 1022.46 | 0.53 | | 北证 50 | 1230.86 | -0.97 | | 沪深 300 | 3939.01 | 0.87 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 641412 | 496564 | 11.93 | 1.26 | | 深证成指 | 225915 | 191281 | 22.12 | 2.29 | | 创业板指 | 62124 | 49378 | 33.91 | 4.30 | | 科创 50 | 35536 | 22745 | 49.64 | 4.26 | | 北证 50 ...

证券研究报告 叶彬 分析师 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 3.45 -3.77 15.92 沪深 300 3.21 -4.95 15.93 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 上证指数 沪深300 执业证书编号:S0530523080001 yebin@hnchasing.com 相关报告 22 大类资产配置报告 A 股具备配置价值，关注科技和扩内需方向 2025 年第一季度大类资产配置 2025 年 02 月 10 日 投资要点 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 经济金融高频数据周报（02.05-02.07）2025-02- 05 2 经济金融高频数据周报（01.20-01.24）2025-01- 3 经济金融高频数据周报（01.13-01.17）2025-01- 13 2024 年第四季度大类资产配置组合表现：2024 年第四季度自20 ...

证券研究报告 行业月度点评 美容护理 2025 年 02 月 11 日 评级 同步大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 美容护理 5.10 -13.61 -4.73 沪深 300 4.04 -5.38 15.40 -23% -3% 17% 37% 2024/02 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 2025/02 美容护理 沪深300 张曦月 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530522020001 zhangxiyue@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 美容护理行业 2025 年度策略：稳中求变， 守正出奇 2025-01-23 2 医美专题系列一：重组胶原蛋白赛道高景气 延续，先行者前景可期 2025-01-02 3 美容护理行业 2024 年 12 月月报：美妆大盘 回落，重组胶原蛋白市场热度持续攀升 2024- 12-23 行业研究报告 与此同时，1 月作为化妆品市场的传统淡季，消费者更倾向于购买年 货、服饰等春节相关商品，化妆品需求相对疲软。此外，1 月位于双 12 和情人节等促销节点之间，品牌和平台促销活动相对有限，难以有效 刺激消费。更重要的是，尽管 20 ...

证券研究报告 行业周度点评 电子 2025 年 02 月 13 日 行业涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 电子 13.72 1.11 61.49 沪深 300 5.02 -4.06 16.49 何晨 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 hechen@hnchasing.com 汪颜雯 研究助理 wangyanwen@hnchasing.com 袁鑫 研究助理 yuanxin@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 电子行业事件点评：DeepSeek-R1 加速 AI 进 程，看好 AI 应用端潜力释放 2025-02-11 2 电子行业 2025 年年度策略：Capex 支撑国产 替代提速，先进封装孕育投资机会 2025-01-17 3 电子行业事件点评：AI 眼镜新品集中亮相 CES 2025，赛道未来可期 2025-01-14 DeepSeek 加速国内 AI 进程，终端需求潜力可期 | 年 2025 | 月 02 | 日 13 | | | 重点股票 | 2023A | | 2024E | | 2025E | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告 行业周度点评 计算机 2025 年 02 月 11 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 计算机 26.87 3.04 53.61 沪深 300 4.04 -5.38 15.40 何晨 分析师 -14% 6% 26% 46% 66% 2024/02 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 2025/02 计算机 沪深300 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 hechen@hnchasing.com 黄奕景 研究助理 huangyijing@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 计算机行业双周报：重视国产算力和推理算力 2025-01-23 2 计算机行业 2025 年度策略：科技自立自强和 新质生产力 2025-01-08 3 计算机行业双周报：重大政策及事件落定，重 视信创和算力 2024-11-13 DeepSeek 重大突破，重视 AI 应用与算力的再平衡 | 重点股票 | 2023A | | 2024E | | 2025E | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

行业点评 电子 证券研究报告 DeepSeek-R1 加速 AI 进程，看好 AI 应用端潜力释放 | 2025 年 02 月 10 日 | | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 领先大市 | 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 电子 9.54 1.99 58.21 沪深 300 3.21 -4.95 15.93 何晨 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 hechen@hnchasing.com 汪颜雯 研究助理 wangyanwen@hnchasing.com 袁鑫 研究助理 yuanxin@hnchasing.com -6% 14% 34% 54% 74% 2024/02 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 电子 沪深300 资料来源： iFinD ，财信证券 投资要点： 投资建议：我们维持电子行业"领先大市"评级。1）推理侧发展有望 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 事件：《科创板日报》2 月 8 日消息称，据 QuestMobile 数据显示， DeepSeek 在 1 月 28 日的日活跃用户数首次超越豆包，随后在 2 ...