| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 503.08 | 488.13 | 629.78 | 792.52 | 964.95 | | 同比（%） | 11.19 | (2.97) | 29.02 | 25.84 | 21.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 21.72 | (61.62) | (6.44) | 18.97 | 36.09 | | 同比（%） | (32.16) | (383.69) | 89.56 | 394.71 | 90.29 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.11 | (0.30) | (0.03) | 0.09 | 0.18 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 330.18 | (116.39) | (1,114.38) | 378.12 | 198.70 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 02 月 23 日 证券研究报告·公司深 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Developments - The global AI industry is experiencing significant capital expenditure, with OpenAI planning approximately $600 billion in spending by 2030 and initiating a financing round potentially exceeding $100 billion[3] - In India, Google announced a $15 billion infrastructure investment, while OpenAI collaborates with Tata to build a 1,000 MW data center, indicating a rapid global deployment of AI infrastructure[3] - Domestic AI companies in China, such as Moonlight Dark Side, have secured over $1.2 billion in financing, reflecting strong market confidence supported by major internet giants like Alibaba and Tencent[3] Group 2: Model Technology Advancements - Recent advancements in model technology include the release of Alibaba's Qwen3.5-Plus, which transitions from pure text training to native multimodal unified modeling, enhancing performance while controlling training costs[4] - Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6 achieves flagship model-level intelligence at a price point 1/18th of competitors, indicating a shift towards cost-effective AI solutions[5] - The collaboration between Tsinghua University, Peking University, and Visionox has led to the development of the FLEXI chip, enabling local AI inference on flexible hardware, expanding edge computing capabilities[5] Group 3: Application and Market Trends - The AI video generation technology was successfully tested during the Spring Festival Gala, showcasing its potential in cultural content creation and commercial applications[6] - The integration of AI in real-world tasks is exemplified by the performance of robots like the Volcano Engine and Doubao, which demonstrated high dynamic coordination and task execution capabilities[5] - The AI industry is expected to enter a second phase of market activity, driven by the successful application of AI technologies in high-profile events like the Spring Festival Gala[6]

Market Overview - During the Spring Festival period, overseas markets were impacted by geopolitical tensions in Iran, ongoing concerns about AI in the US stock market, and the release of key economic data such as US CPI and GDP[2] - Gold and the US dollar index rose in tandem, while US Treasury yields, US stocks, and commodities initially declined before rebounding[2] Economic Data - The US GDP for Q4 2025 was reported at +1.4%, significantly below expectations of +2.8% and the previous quarter's +4.4%, primarily due to a -0.9% contribution from government spending[16] - Core CPI and PCE inflation remained sticky, with PCE inflation exceeding expectations, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures[14] Asset Performance - Silver led the performance among major assets during the Spring Festival with a 12.44% increase, driven by the escalation of the Iranian situation and rising oil prices[3] - European stock indices outperformed US stocks during this period, with the UK, France, and Germany leading the global equity market[3] Policy and Tariffs - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were illegal, leading to the announcement of a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, effective February 24[27] - Trump threatened to increase tariffs on certain economies from 10% to 15%, indicating potential legislative moves to solidify tariff legality[27] Future Outlook - The combination of better-than-expected US economic data and the Supreme Court ruling is expected to boost risk appetite, particularly benefiting export chains and cyclical sectors until mid-March[8] - A significant rebound in the US economy is anticipated in Q1 2026, driven by the end of the government shutdown's negative impact and the effects of previous interest rate cuts[26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Shenghong (000301) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the cyclical turning point has arrived, and Dongfang Shenghong, as a leader in refining and new materials, is poised for growth. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the refining product market and the completion of its capital expenditures [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Dongfang Shenghong is a global leader in large-scale refining, with a capacity of 16 million tons per year. The company has developed a comprehensive industrial structure that includes refining, new energy materials, and polyester fibers, leveraging a unique multi-feedstock approach for olefin production [8][15]. Industry Dynamics - The refining industry is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on reducing oil dependency and increasing chemical production. The report notes that the domestic refining sector is expected to consolidate, with larger integrated projects becoming the norm, which will benefit Dongfang Shenghong [33][40]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts that Dongfang Shenghong's revenue will be 126.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 8%, followed by a recovery to 138.5 billion yuan in 2026 and 142.0 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 1.4 billion yuan, with significant growth projected in subsequent years [1][72]. Product Segments - The refining segment is expected to maintain a gross margin above 20%, driven by the company's large-scale and efficient refining operations. The polyester segment, with a capacity of 3.6 million tons per year, is also projected to benefit from industry-wide production cuts aimed at stabilizing prices [36][71]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Prospects - The company is nearing the end of its capital expenditure phase, with most of its facilities already operational. This is expected to lead to improved operational efficiency and profitability as market conditions stabilize [8][10]. Competitive Advantages - Dongfang Shenghong's integrated supply chain and diverse feedstock sources provide it with a competitive edge in cost control and risk management. The company is also focusing on expanding its new materials product lines, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [28][65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robots showcased at the Spring Festival Gala have demonstrated significant advancements in hardware stability and performance, with companies like Yushu Technology and Magic Atom leading the way [2][3] - Key improvements in humanoid robots include lightweight materials, high-performance joints, and advanced control systems that enhance their agility and precision [2][3][9] - The integration of reinforcement learning and virtual simulation has enabled robots to perform complex tasks and adapt to dynamic environments effectively [4][9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry has evolved significantly, with major performances at the Spring Festival Gala highlighting their capabilities [1][2] Technological Advancements - Hardware improvements include the use of lightweight materials such as carbon fiber and magnesium-aluminum alloys, resulting in a weight reduction from 47KG to 35KG for Yushu's robots [2] - The robots now feature high-explosive joints and advanced sensors that allow for precise control and dynamic balance during performances [3][4] Performance Highlights - Notable performances included Yushu's "Ying BOT" and "Wu BOT," showcasing complex movements and interactions with human performers [1][2] - Magic Atom's robots demonstrated group control and interaction, further emphasizing the advancements in robotic dexterity [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with mass production capabilities and integration into the supply chain, highlighting key players such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group [10] - Specific recommendations include monitoring companies in the actuator, screw, and harmonic reducer sectors, as well as those involved in electronic skin and 3D vision technologies [10]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·食品饮料 食品饮料行业跟踪周报 从"历史经典产业"到"传统优势民生产业" ， 新五年酿酒产业提质发展 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 22 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 《AI 营销：新风口剑指千亿，服务商 乘势而进》 2026-02-11 《渠道变革大时代，优质连锁零售业 态蓬勃发展》 2026-02-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 从"历史经典"到"优势民生"产业，再度定调酿酒产业重要地位，鼓 励高质量发展。继 2025 年 10 月工信部发布《关于推动历史经典产业高 质量发展的指导意见（2026—2030 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The humanoid robots showcased at the Spring Festival Gala have demonstrated significant advancements in hardware capabilities, including rigidity and stability, which are crucial for performing complex movements [2][3] - The evolution of humanoid robots is marked by improvements in lightweight materials, high-performance joints, and advanced control systems that enhance their agility and precision [2][3][9] - The integration of reinforcement learning and virtual simulation has enabled robots to perform complex tasks and adapt their movements in real-time, showcasing their potential for industrial applications [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Humanoid robots have gained public attention through performances at the Spring Festival Gala, with companies like Yushu Technology and Magic Atom showcasing their capabilities [1][2] Technological Advancements - Key advancements include: - Lightweight materials such as carbon fiber and magnesium-aluminum alloys have reduced robot weight significantly, exemplified by Yushu Technology's reduction from 47KG to 35KG [2] - High-performance joints utilizing planetary gear reducers and advanced motors have improved torque density and overall performance [2][3] - Precision control systems that utilize visual sensors and inertial measurement units allow for real-time adjustments during complex movements [3] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a significant shift in the robotics industry as leading companies like Tesla and domestic firms prepare for large-scale production, marking a transition from experimental to practical applications [10] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies with proven mass production capabilities, including those in the core supply chain for robotics [10]

Group 1: CPI Overview - In January 2026, the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.17%, below the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.30%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.30%, matching expectations and up from 0.23% in the previous month[2] - Year-on-year CPI growth was 2.39%, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous 2.68%[2] Group 2: Inflation Structure - The decline in overall CPI was primarily due to a significant drop in gasoline prices, which negatively impacted energy inflation[2] - Super core service inflation recorded a new high in year-on-year growth, indicating persistent inflationary pressure in this sector[2] - Excluding the unusual drop in used car prices, the core goods inflation is expected to rebound more significantly in the coming months[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The expectation of expansive fiscal and monetary policies, along with seasonal impulses, is likely to support a phase of demand expansion in the U.S. economy in Q1 2026[2] - There are upward risks for non-farm payrolls and core CPI growth in February and March 2026, with the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve anticipated in June 2026[2] - Risks include potential overreach of Trump policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.69%, ranking third among automotive sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 4.94% [2][15]. - The robotics sector has increased by 2.27% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.54%, outperforming the automotive parts sector by 0.58% [2][27]. - The latest trading day PE (TTM) for the automotive parts sector is at the 85.68% historical percentile, while the PB (LF) is at the 79.62% historical percentile, indicating a favorable valuation [2][25]. - Key developments include the establishment of a joint venture between Sensata Technologies and Gree's Harmonic in North America, and the release of the Gino 1 warehouse robot by Geekplus [2][36]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector ranked third in the SW automotive index this week, with a trading volume increase and a positive trend since early February [15][22]. - The sector's PE and PB ratios have risen, indicating improved market sentiment and valuation [25][22]. Robotics Weekly Review - The robotics index has shown a modest increase, with trading activity at a low level compared to previous years [27][33]. - Recent product launches and technological advancements, such as the Gino 1 robot and Xiaomi's open-source robot model, highlight innovation in the sector [36][37]. Core Coverage Stock Tracking - Notable stock movements include Sensata Technologies (+17.05%) and Precision Forging Technology (+28.98%) [42]. - The forecast for Top Group indicates expected revenue of 28.75 to 30.35 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected net profit of 2.6 to 2.9 billion yuan [42][49]. Investment Recommendations - For the automotive parts sector, focus on companies with structural opportunities and those expanding into high-value markets, particularly in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [50]. - In the robotics sector, prioritize companies with clear growth trajectories and technological advancements, such as Top Group and Sensata Technologies [50].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The clinical CRO industry is experiencing a recovery, with increasing demand driven by the global rise in innovative drug financing and the expansion of clinical trial outsourcing. The company is expected to benefit from this trend, with a significant increase in new orders and market share [8]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the clinical CRO market in China, with its market share rising from 8.7% in 2019 to 12.8% in 2023. This growth is attributed to the optimization of supply and the company's strong competitive position [8]. - The company's revenue and profit forecasts indicate a recovery, with expected revenues of 71.29 billion yuan in 2025, 80.19 billion yuan in 2026, and 93.27 billion yuan in 2027, alongside a substantial increase in net profit [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2004, the company has grown to become a leading clinical CRO in China, providing comprehensive services for the biopharmaceutical industry through self-built and acquired networks [14]. - The company's ownership structure is stable, with key founders holding significant shares and a management team experienced in top-tier biopharmaceutical companies [15]. Financial Analysis - The company has experienced revenue growth from 254 million yuan in 2012 to 6.603 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5%. However, growth has slowed in 2023 and 2024 due to market conditions [19]. - The company’s gross margin has faced pressure, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 as low-priced orders are cleared and new orders increase [22]. Industry Outlook - The global demand for CRO services is expected to grow, with the penetration rate of outsourced pharmaceutical R&D projected to exceed 50% by 2024 and reach approximately 65% by 2033 [43]. - The number of CRO companies in China has decreased significantly due to market consolidation, enhancing the competitive landscape for leading firms like the company [52]. Business Segments - The company operates primarily in two segments: Clinical Trial Technical Services (CTS) and Clinical Trial Related Services and Laboratory Services. CTS is the cornerstone of the business, covering all phases of clinical trials [54]. - The company has a strong international presence, with operations in 33 countries and a growing number of overseas projects, reflecting its commitment to global expansion [63].