——农林牧渔行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈： 仔猪均价连续两周环比下跌 标肥价差周环比收窄 行 业 研 究 仔猪均价连续两周环比下跌 标肥价差周 环比收窄 商品猪出栏均价周环比上涨，仔猪均价周环比下跌 商品猪出栏均重和宰后均重周环比上涨，标肥价差周环比收窄 钢联样本养殖场 1 月实际出栏量月环比减少 9.06%，2 月计划出栏量月环比减 少 12.90%。根据钢联 173 家规模养殖场样本数据，2025 年 1 月实际出栏量月 环比减少 9.06%，2 月计划出栏量 1117.00 万头、月环比减少 12.90%，预计与 春节错期等因素有关。 根据 wind 截至 2 月 21 日数据，自繁自养头均养殖利润 46.84 元/头，利润较前 一周环比增加 24.72 元/头，外购仔猪头均养殖利润 27.69 元/头，利润较前一周 环比增加 31.93 元/头。 投资策略： | | | | 评级 | | | 增持 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 02 | 月 | 日 24 | 王伟 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1660524100001 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the securities industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent joint press conference by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, focusing on strict legal measures against securities violations to promote a healthy and stable capital market [10][11] - The securities industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index last week, indicating increased stock differentiation within the sector, which may lead to heightened volatility in the future [3][25] - The report notes that nearly 90% of the 34 securities firms that have disclosed their 2024 earnings reported positive net profit growth, with four firms exceeding 10 billion yuan in net profit [30][31] Market Review - For the week of February 17-21, the CSI 300 index increased by 1%, while the securities industry index rose by 0.58%. Within the sector, 28 stocks increased, 1 remained flat, 1 was suspended, and 20 declined [2][12] - The top five performing stocks in the securities sector were Xinda Securities, Great Wall Securities, Dongxing Securities, China Galaxy, and Dongwu Securities, while the bottom five were Jinlong Shares, Guolian Minsheng, Hatou Shares, Hualin Securities, and GF Securities [13][15] Industry Fundamentals - The securities industry comprises 50 listed companies, with an average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.45, compared to the market average P/E ratio of 12.80 [6][29] Recent Developments - The report discusses the potential impact of the transfer of shares from three national asset management companies to Central Huijin Investment, which may lead to increased consolidation among securities firms [27][28] - The report emphasizes that the tightening of regulations is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and ensuring the stability of the capital market [11][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - January saw a significant increase in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, with 944,000 units sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.4% and a penetration rate of 38.9% [10][11] - The overall installation of power batteries in January reached 38.8 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 20% [11][12] - The installation of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries surged to 30.2 GWh, accounting for 78% of total installations, with a year-on-year growth of 53%. In contrast, ternary battery installations decreased by 32.5% to 8.5 GWh, representing 22% of total installations [12][13] - Leading companies in the battery sector, such as CATL and BYD, maintained strong positions, with CATL's installations at 18.25 GWh (47% of total) and BYD's at 8.88 GWh (23%), showing year-on-year growth of 14% and 48% respectively [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. NEV Sales Situation - NEV sales in January 2025 reached 944,000 units, a 29.4% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 38.9% [10][11] 2. Power Battery Installation Overview - Power battery installations totaled 38.8 GWh in January, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [11][12] 3. Different Types of Power Battery Installations - LFP battery installations were 30.2 GWh, up 53% year-on-year, while ternary battery installations fell to 8.5 GWh, down 32.5% [12][13] 4. Leading Companies' Power Battery Installation Volumes - CATL's battery installations were 18.25 GWh (47% of total), and BYD's were 8.88 GWh (23%), with respective year-on-year growth of 14% and 48% [19][20] 5. Market Performance Review - The power equipment industry experienced a weekly increase of 2.9%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries [27][28]

Group 1: Market Overview - The five major indices tracked last week all experienced gains, with the CSI 300 Index and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year on February 21, indicating a strong market trend [2][20]. - The performance of major indices last week was as follows: CSI 300 increased by 1.00%, Shanghai Composite Index by 0.97%, Shenzhen Component Index by 2.25%, ChiNext Index by 2.99%, and CSI 500 by 1.84% [10][11]. Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industry indices tracked, 16 saw an increase while 15 experienced a decline. The top five performing industries were telecommunications, machinery, electronics, automotive, and computers, while the bottom five were coal, media, real estate, non-ferrous metals, and oil & petrochemicals [11][12]. Group 3: Trading Data - Total trading volume last week was 698.377 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 9,569.817 billion yuan. There were 3,327 stocks that rose and 1,993 that fell [12][13]. - As of the end of last week, 73 stocks reached historical highs, while none reached historical lows. The number of stocks hitting new highs over the past 30, 60, and 120 days were 1,064, 751, and 325 respectively, while the number of stocks hitting new lows were 262, 94, and 59 respectively [14][15]. Group 4: Margin Trading Data - Margin trading data indicated that the weekly financing balance increased by approximately 32.2 billion yuan, while the weekly margin short balance increased by about 0.4 billion yuan [15].

行 业 研 究 我们认为国产代工和先进制程龙头的展望反映行业景气预期，公司产能扩张可 逐步释放为公司业绩，在设备自主可控背景下、持续的资本开支对国产设备需 求形成支撑。从下游场景看，国内 AI 应用的扩大有望传导到数据中心算力需 求和智能端侧硬件领域，带动国产芯片产业链维持较好景气水平。此前半导体 禁令将促使 AI 相关 GPU、HBM 等高性能芯片代工向国内厂商转移，加快国 内龙头代工企业先进工艺迭代和设备更新，利好国产设备和先进封装等环节。 用户庞大的应用和智能终端接入大模型或加速 AI 普及。根据 IT 之家消息，近 日微信、腾讯元宝、ima 等多款产品接入 DeepSeek-R1 模型，苹果公司与阿 里巴巴合作为国行版的 iPhone 开发 AI 功能，用户庞大的应用和智能终端接入 大模型或加速 AI 应用普及。此外，DeepSeek 等模型的本地部署或将带动应 用环节的算力投资、AIPC 等换机，建议关注 AI 需求对国产算力、存储芯片、 端侧 SoC 的带动以及对晶圆代工和国产设备、封装等制造环节的传导。 AI 算力需求或支撑国产芯片产业链景气 提升 ——电子行业研究周报 投资摘要： 市场回顾 上 ...

行 业 研 究 提振消费政策预期有望带动板块行情 ——食品饮料行业研究周报 投资摘要： 每周一谈：提振消费政策预期有望带动板块行情 提振消费政策预期有望带动食品饮料板块行情企稳回升。根据中国政府网消 息，近期国常会研究提振消费有关工作，会议提出要切实转变观念，把提振消 费摆到更加突出位置。我们认为后续宏观增量政策空间或主要在于促消费领 域，食品饮料各子行业需求改善可期。同时，宏观经济指标中社零和 CPI 等 有望提振，或将带动消费板块投资情绪回升。春节白酒销售工作顺利度过，白 酒企业重点工作阶段性转向控货挺价。根据酒业家媒体近期在河南、山东、湖 北等多地调研，终端烟酒店在春节期间的整体动销同比下滑超 10%，但具体 聚焦白酒业务，在渠道普遍较为消极的情绪下，酒类销售超预期，销量较 2024 年中秋国庆有较好增长，其中大众价格带白酒表现突出。根据酒业家消息，五 粮液、今世缘、洋河、珍酒等部分酒企核心大单品在春节前后相继宣布停货、 控货，控货动作已传导至出货和价格端，五粮液普五、洋河 M6+等产品动销 加速、出货量走高、批价出现上涨。 分场景看，宴席场景在 2025 年的回补有望带动各价位带全国化代表品牌、地 产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The demand for AI computing power is expected to support the prosperity of the domestic chip industry chain, with significant growth anticipated in various application areas [2][3] - SMIC's Q4 2024 gross margin exceeded guidance, and its revenue outlook for Q1 2025 is above the industry average, indicating a positive trend for the company and the sector [2][3] - The expansion of domestic AI applications is likely to drive demand for data center computing power and smart hardware, maintaining a favorable industry outlook [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index rose by 0.27% from February 10 to February 14, ranking 21st among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.92% [12][18] - For the month of February 1 to February 14, the index increased by 6.43%, ranking 4th among 31 industries, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.24% [12] - Year-to-date, the index has risen by 6.15%, ranking 6th among 31 industries, and has outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 6.05% [12] Company Insights - SMIC reported Q4 2024 sales revenue of 15.917 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.0%, with a gross margin of 22.6% [2][27] - The company expects Q1 2025 revenue growth of 6-8% and a gross margin of 19-21%, indicating a positive outlook compared to industry averages [3][31] - The capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at $7.33 billion, with a monthly capacity of 948,000 8-inch wafers by year-end [2][27] Industry Dynamics - The integration of AI capabilities into consumer electronics is accelerating, with major applications like WeChat and iPhone collaborating with AI models [4][32] - The report suggests focusing on AI-driven demand and domestic substitution logic within the AI industry chain and related consumer electronics [4][32] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards domestic manufacturers for high-performance chips due to previous semiconductor bans, benefiting local foundries and advanced packaging sectors [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - Expectations for policies to boost consumption are likely to stabilize and rebound the food and beverage sector. The government has emphasized the importance of consumption, which is expected to improve demand across various sub-sectors [18][29] - The white wine sector has seen a successful sales period during the Spring Festival, with companies focusing on inventory control and price stabilization. Despite a general decline in sales for other alcoholic beverages, white wine sales have exceeded expectations [18][29] - The beer and other sub-sectors are under performance pressure, but there are opportunities for short-term recovery and future earnings elasticity due to macroeconomic policy support [28][29] Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage index rose by 2.34% in the week of February 10-14, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15%. However, it has declined by 4.75% year-to-date, ranking 29th among 31 sectors [9][15] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include focusing on white wine investment opportunities based on scene adaptation, regional optimization, and dividend rate enhancement. Specific companies to watch include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [29] - For beer, companies like Yanjing Beer are suggested due to potential market growth and cost reduction benefits. The report also highlights resilient condiment companies such as Haitian Flavoring and Angel Yeast [29] - Attention is drawn to snack food companies like Youyi Food and Three Squirrels, as well as beverage companies like Dongpeng Beverage for their growth potential [29] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the white wine industry is still facing price and inventory pressures, with leading manufacturers implementing inventory control measures to adjust growth rates. The banquet scene is expected to recover in 2025, benefiting various price segments [22][30] - The report also discusses the performance of major brands and their strategies for maintaining market order and enhancing brand influence [30][32]

投资摘要： 每周一谈：全固态电池加速攻关 产业化前景渐明 据新华网消息，近日，第二届中国全固态电池创新发展高峰论坛在北京举行。会 议期间，8 位院士，6 家行业组织、60 多位专家学者以及 200 余家整车、电池、 材料企业，多家研究机构，以及多个地方政府代表，共同聚焦材料科学、新工艺 新装备及产业前沿进展，探讨全固态电池创新突破及挑战。 全国政协常委、经济委员会副主任，工业和信息化部原部长苗圩表示：固态电池 产业化仍需解决技术、工艺和成本的问题。从当前全球固态电池研发进展来看， 量产技术工艺有待成熟，2027 年前后实现小批量生产。 欧阳明高院士提出：当前要聚焦以硫化物电解质为主体电解质匹配高镍三元正极 和硅碳负极的技术路线，以比能量 400 瓦时/公斤、循环寿命 1000 次以上为性能 目标，确保 2027 年实现轿车小批量装车，2030 年实现规模量产。 一汽集团首席科学家王德平表示：全固态电池经过近几年的发展，已突破关键技 术，现阶段正处于原型样机阶段。能量密度达 400Wh/kg 的全固态电池，预计在 未来两至三年，有望实现小批量装车应用。 全固态电池加速攻关 产业化前景渐明 ——电力设备行业研究周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment industry [4]. Core Insights - The all-solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards commercialization, with significant discussions at the recent summit involving experts and industry leaders [1][6]. - The industry is focusing on overcoming technical, process, and cost challenges to achieve mass production, with small-scale production expected around 2027 and large-scale production by 2030 [1][7]. - The all-solid-state battery offers advantages over traditional lithium-ion batteries, including higher safety, energy density, and flexible design, indicating a promising future for this technology [2][7]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The second China All-Solid-State Battery Innovation Development Summit highlighted advancements and challenges in the field, with key figures emphasizing the need for improved production techniques [1][6]. - The target performance for the all-solid-state battery includes an energy density of 400 Wh/kg and a cycle life of over 1000 times, aiming for small-scale automotive applications by 2027 [1][6]. Market Review - The electric power equipment industry experienced a weekly change of 0.08%, ranking 25th among 31 primary industries, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices [3][8]. - Specific segments within the industry showed varied performance, with electric motors and photovoltaic equipment experiencing declines, while other power equipment segments saw gains [3][8]. Price Changes of Lithium-Ion Batteries and Key Materials - The report includes insights into the price trends of lithium-ion batteries and critical materials, although specific data points are not detailed in the provided content [20].