hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 30 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 29 日 | | | | 年 | 04 | | 2025 | 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 34.00 | | | | | 一 年 内 最 低 | | 最 | 高 | / | | | | | | 45.44/13.48 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 1,906.96 | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 936.97 | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 56.09 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has experienced improved water conditions in 2024, leading to record high performance in Q1 2025. The revenue for 2024 was CNY 24.882 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 8.297 billion, up 8.63% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 5.385 billion, a year-on-year growth of 21.84%, and a net profit of CNY 1.508 billion, reflecting a 41.56% increase year-on-year [7][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are CNY 8.848 billion, CNY 9.042 billion, and CNY 9.274 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19.5, 19.1, and 18.6 times [5]. - The company’s 2024 dividend policy is set at CNY 0.2 per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 43.39%, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.2% based on the stock price as of April 28, 2025 [5]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from CNY 24.882 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.287 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.31% [8]. Operational Highlights - The company’s total installed capacity reached 31,008.5 MW by the end of 2024, with hydropower accounting for 27,305.8 MW and renewable energy for 3,702.7 MW. The completion of the Toba power station in 2024 is expected to contribute additional generation capacity [7]. - The company’s hydropower generation in 2024 was 1,120 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.62%, with significant contributions from improved water conditions in the Lancang River basin [7]. Market Context - The report emphasizes the long-term investment value of hydropower as a stable asset class in a volatile market, highlighting the market's re-evaluation of low-covariance assets like hydropower due to their stable business models and predictable performance [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to relatively stable performance and good cost control [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its core business, particularly in the distribution of narcotic and psychotropic drugs, benefiting from the increasing concentration in the pharmaceutical distribution industry [6]. - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 12.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 460 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights that the company's gross margin and expense ratios have remained stable, with a gross margin of 7% in Q1 2025, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 49.696 billion yuan - 2024: 50.597 billion yuan (1.81% growth) - 2025E: 54.668 billion yuan (8.04% growth) - 2026E: 58.472 billion yuan (6.96% growth) - 2027E: 62.448 billion yuan (6.80% growth) [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as follows: - 2023: 2.146 billion yuan - 2024: 2.000 billion yuan (-6.80% growth) - 2025E: 2.203 billion yuan (10.14% growth) - 2026E: 2.381 billion yuan (8.08% growth) - 2027E: 2.545 billion yuan (6.91% growth) [5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be: - 2023: 2.84 yuan - 2024: 2.65 yuan - 2025E: 2.92 yuan - 2026E: 3.16 yuan - 2027E: 3.37 yuan [5]. Market Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately 21.798 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 15.986 billion yuan [2]. - The stock price closed at 28.89 yuan, with a one-year high of 38.00 yuan and a low of 27.12 yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in plasma collection, leading to stable long-term performance [5] - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic market with a projected plasma collection volume of approximately 2,781 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.15% [7] - The introduction of new products, such as the fourth-generation chromatographic immunoglobulin, is anticipated to significantly enhance profit margins [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 5,180 million RMB - 2024: 6,032 million RMB (growth of 16.44%) - 2025E: 6,716 million RMB (growth of 11.35%) - 2026E: 7,633 million RMB (growth of 13.65%) - 2027E: 8,627 million RMB (growth of 13.02%) [6] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 1,110 million RMB - 2024: 1,549 million RMB (growth of 39.58%) - 2025E: 1,626 million RMB (growth of 4.93%) - 2026E: 1,859 million RMB (growth of 14.37%) - 2027E: 2,124 million RMB (growth of 14.25%) [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: 0.56 RMB - 2024: 0.78 RMB - 2025E: 0.82 RMB - 2026E: 0.94 RMB - 2027E: 1.07 RMB [6] Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 19.10 RMB, with a total market capitalization of approximately 37,767.79 million RMB [3]

晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资要点： 证券研究报告 | 市场数据 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,286.65 | -0.05% | 0.74% | | 创业板指 | 1,931.94 | -0.13% | -6.24% | | 沪深 300 | 3,775.08 | -0.17% | -1.19% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.38 | 0.45% | 1.83% | | 科创 50 | 1,003.87 | 0.10% | 5.08% | | 北证 50 | 1,292.80 | 1.24% | 26.76% | 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年04月29日 华源晨会精粹 医药 鱼跃医疗(002223.SZ)点评：收入回归稳健增长轨道，海外高速增长。24 年实 现收入 75.7 亿元，同比-5.1%，实现归母净利润 18.1 亿元，同比-24.6%；25Q1 实现收入 24.4 亿元，同比+9.2%，实现归母净利润 6.2 亿元，同比-5.3%。部分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main business shows steady growth, with emerging and overseas momentum accelerating [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 555.34 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.01 billion yuan, up 0.61% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to optimize its business structure, with strategic emerging industries achieving a revenue of 45.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [5] - New contracts signed in Q1 2025 totaled 1,203.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, with overseas contracts increasing significantly by 178.5% [5] - The company maintains a strong cash flow management, with a net cash outflow of 95.85 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 7.43 billion yuan year-on-year [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 2,243.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.56% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 47.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.93% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 1.15 yuan [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 4.79 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company achieved impressive growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 2.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.44%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 342 million yuan, up 31.69% year-on-year [7] - The dual-brand strategy of Marubi and PL Fire is showing positive momentum, with both brands contributing significantly to revenue [7] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 469 million yuan in 2025, 590 million yuan in 2026, and 724 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 37.4%, 25.8%, and 22.7% respectively [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,226 million yuan in 2023, 2,970 million yuan in 2024, 3,832 million yuan in 2025, 4,735 million yuan in 2026, and 5,615 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 28.52%, 33.44%, 29.04%, 23.56%, and 18.59% [6] - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected at 73.7%, an increase of 3.01 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control and product mix optimization [7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 11.50%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.11% [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is continuously improving its asset layout, and its toll road operations are stable [4] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 4.782 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.88% [7] - The company is focusing on its core business and enhancing its asset layout, with ongoing projects expected to release incremental revenue [7] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company expects operating revenue of 15.192 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.61% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 5.211 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 15.31 [5][7] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 34.67%, a decrease of 12.58 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in construction projects with zero gross margin [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 752 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.71%, and a net profit of 106.5 million yuan, up 52.91% year-on-year [5] - The automotive electronics business saw a significant revenue increase of 107% year-on-year, driven by the company's focus on self-production and product innovation [5] - The establishment of a factory in Thailand is expected to alleviate the impact of tariffs on U.S. operations and enhance the company's global competitiveness [5][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Closing price: 32.10 yuan - Total market capitalization: 2,113.41 million yuan - Circulating market capitalization: 1,175.48 million yuan - Total shares: 65.84 million - Debt-to-asset ratio: 28.81% [3] Financial Performance - Revenue forecast for 2024: 752 million yuan, with a growth rate of 34.71% - Net profit forecast for 2024: 107 million yuan, with a growth rate of 52.91% - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024: 1.62 yuan [7][8] Business Strategy - The company is actively promoting the self-production of automotive electronics, with a focus on technology and talent development [5] - The marketing strategy combines domestic and international efforts, with e-commerce clients accounting for 38.43% of procurement in 2024 [5] - The company plans to continue expanding its product ecosystem into various sectors, including marine and robotics [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Views - The company is identified as a leading player in the aircraft leasing sector, with expected performance improvements in the current economic cycle [5]. - The report highlights strong growth in aircraft sales and an increase in rental yield, driven by rising aircraft market prices and strategic asset management [7]. - The company is projected to benefit from a tightening aircraft supply, leading to increased rental income and improved profit margins [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company show a significant increase from 33,675 million RMB in 2023 to 47,621 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.91% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1,281 million RMB in 2023 to 1,913 million RMB in 2025, with a notable growth rate of 111.58% in 2025 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.21 RMB in 2023 to 0.31 RMB in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]. Business Overview - The company has rapidly expanded through acquisitions and focuses on operational leasing, with aircraft and container leasing as its primary business segments [7]. - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have a fleet of 1,158 aircraft, maintaining a 100% rental rate, which positions it as the second-largest aircraft leasing company globally [7]. - The company is exploring innovative business opportunities in emerging fields such as eVTOL, CTOL, and hydrogen aviation, aiming to diversify its growth avenues [7].