证券研究报告 一季度电力装机跟踪 关注海风及生物柴油机遇 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 17 周周报（20250427） 投资要点： 证券分析师 电力：风光装机首次超过火电，新政下光伏投产提速 风光装机首次超过火电，双碳战略效果显著。国家能源局于 2025 年 4 月 20 日发布 1-3 月全国电力工业 统计数据：截至 3 月底，全国累计发电装机容量 34.3 亿千瓦，同比增长 14.6%。其中，太阳能发电装机 容量 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 抑郁/癫痫新药需求突出，建议关注华纳药厂/海南海药 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/4/21-25/4/25） 投资要点： 投资观点及建议关注标的：展望 2025 年，我们认为医药板块已经具备多方面的积极发展因素， 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：4 月 21 日至 4 月 25 日，医药指数上涨 1.16%，相对沪深 300 指数 超额收益为 0.77%。本周创新药板块依旧活跃，舒泰神、迪哲医药、荣昌生物等表现较好， 一季报陆续来临，Q1 业绩关注度逐步提升，甘李药业、何氏眼科、海泰新光等 Q1 业绩较好， 股价表现亮眼。建议关注：1）创新药出海不受关税影响，继续重点推荐 A 股信立泰、科伦药 业、热景生物、一品红、科兴制药、恒瑞医药； ...

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 中美各说各话，风偏提升难持续 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/4/21-25/4/25） 投资要点： 风险提示：大模型技术发展不及预期、PC/手机等终端需求复苏不及预期、美国联邦基金利率剧烈波动。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | | | 证券分析师 海外 AI：海外科技巨头 capex 指引尚未放缓。本周谷歌发布 1Q25 财报，业绩略超预期，1Q25 公司实现营收 902 亿美元，同比增长 12%，实现净利润 345.4 亿美元，同比增长 46%，其中搜索和 YouTube 广告、订阅平台 和设备以及谷歌云的收入均实现了两位数增长，公司总体业务保持强劲增长。1Q25 公司云 ...

证券研究报告 传媒 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 王世豪 SAC：S1350524120005 wangshihao@huayuanstock.com 陈逸凡 SAC：S1350525040003 chenyifan@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 重视 AI 陪伴产品进度，关注新游产品周期 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——传媒互联网行业周报（2025.4.21-2025.4.27） 投资要点： 本周观点：继 24 年 10 月"首款 3D AI 伴侣"《EVE》首曝之后，AI 智能伴侣公司 「自然选择」于 4 月 25 日发布《EVE》同名的 3D AI 男友 PV，并宣布内测即将开 启。建议重视 AI 陪伴产品的落地进度，同时部分重点新游产品陆续进入定档上线时 间，关注游戏产品周期的开启。 联系人 板块表现： 游戏方向：4 月 25 日，AI 智能伴侣公司「自然选择」发布《EVE》3D A ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The logistics sector is showing resilience with a steady increase in express delivery volumes and revenues, indicating a robust demand environment [5][6][22] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends favoring growth [15] - The shipping sector faces challenges due to ongoing tariff conflicts, but oil tanker demand is projected to rise due to geopolitical factors [15] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations were stable from April 14 to April 20, with rail freight at 75.61 million tons (down 1.66% week-on-week) and express delivery volumes reaching approximately 3.95 billion pieces (up 3.59%) [5] - Shentong Express reported a significant improvement in 2024, with revenues of 47.169 billion yuan (up 15.26%) and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan (up 250.24%) [6] - The overall express delivery market is characterized by strong demand and limited price decline, with major players like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng benefiting from cyclical recovery [15] Aviation - Huaxia Airlines reported a net profit of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 232% increase year-on-year, driven by increased flight operations and passenger volumes [9] - The airline industry is expected to see a rebound in ticket sales, with a long-term positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand [15] Shipping - The shipping sector is experiencing significant operational adjustments due to ongoing US-China tariff conflicts, with a 44% year-on-year decrease in vessel numbers to US ports [11] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.4% to 1305 points, indicating a potential recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [12] - Oil tanker demand is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and limited new ship orders, suggesting a favorable outlook for the oil shipping segment [15]

证券研究报告 建筑材料 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 27 日 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 政治局会议提升内循环地位，重视顺周期投资机会 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑材料行业周报（25/04/21-25/04/27） 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期，化债力度不及预期，房地产政策不及预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 政治局会议前置预示经济驱动力结构挑战，内循环重要性提升。本次政治会议最值 得关注的是多处表述的变化，不仅明确了当前中央对内循环的重视，也彰显了我国 在大国博弈关键期的定力与底气：1）"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"。和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a low-cost leader in mica lithium extraction, driven by dual engines of lithium battery and special steel businesses. The successful expansion of mining rights and anticipated growth in lithium salt production capacity are expected to enhance profitability as lithium prices stabilize and recover [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2000, has evolved from a stainless steel manufacturer to a leader in the lithium battery materials sector, maintaining a top-three market share in stainless steel long products. A strategic shift began in 2017 towards lithium battery materials, leading to significant growth in both stainless steel and lithium salt revenues [7][14]. 2. Lithium Sector - The company has secured two major mica lithium mines, achieving complete self-sufficiency in lithium resources. The mining rights for the Huashan mica mine have been expanded, increasing the production capacity from 3 million tons/year to 9 million tons/year, enhancing resource security [7][47][51]. - The current lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 30,000 tons, with plans for expansion as mining and processing projects are completed. The production cost of lithium carbonate is projected to be significantly lower than industry averages, with a forecasted cost of 47,000 RMB/ton in 2024 [7][52][53]. - The lithium market is expected to experience a bottoming phase in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 as supply-demand dynamics shift. The average selling prices for lithium products are projected to be 66,000 RMB/ton in 2025, increasing to 71,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [7][58]. 3. Special Steel Sector - The company is a leading player in the stainless steel long products market, with stable production and sales volumes around 300,000 tons annually. The gross profit per ton of stainless steel has increased from 1,961 RMB/ton in 2021 to 2,809 RMB/ton in 2023, reflecting improved product mix and market positioning [7][35][39]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 890 million RMB, 1.23 billion RMB, and 1.64 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -14.3%, +37.1%, and +34.0%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 10 for the same years [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, 52 companies from the Beijing Stock Exchange entered the top ten holdings of various funds, with a total public fund market value of 6.743 billion yuan [3][8][12] - The top three companies by fund holdings are Jinbo Biological, Tongli Co., and Kait Co., with Jinbo Biological being the most held by 51 funds [3][17] - The North Exchange 50 Index fund size increased to 9.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growing interest in the North Exchange market [3][21] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, 69 out of 103 companies reported positive revenue growth, with 24 companies exceeding 25% growth [3][22] - The average return of 11 active theme funds on the North Exchange was around 24%, outperforming the North Exchange 50 Index's 22% return [12][15] - Seven companies entered the top ten holdings of active theme funds for the first time, including Deyuan Pharmaceutical and Longhong Technology [19][22] Group 3 - The overall PE ratio of the North Exchange A-shares decreased to 45X, indicating a potential valuation adjustment [4][24] - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange fell to 30.1 billion yuan, suggesting a cooling market sentiment [4][25] - The market is expected to continue its consolidation phase, with opportunities arising post the financial report disclosures [3][4] Group 4 - The report highlights a preference for companies with low valuations and significant growth potential, such as Minshida and Lintai New Materials [3][8] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors like high-end manufacturing, infrastructure, and specialty consumer goods [3][8][19] - The report emphasizes the alignment of the North Exchange's "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" positioning with national policies on self-reliance and innovation-driven development [3][4]