| 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 王宇璇 SAC：S1350525050003 wangyuxuan@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 转基因商业化持续推进，关注康农种业等北交所种业公司 ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第十五期（20250523） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 全球种子行业集中度较高，中国仍有较大提升空间。参考先正达招股说明书数据，2021 年全 球种子行业 CR5 为 52%。我国种业企业数量较多，且以中小企业为主，2021 年中国种子行 业 CR5 约为 17%，具备较大提升空间，生物育种产业化有望推动市场集中度的提升。主要粮 食价格有望缓慢抬升。2025 年截至 5 月 23 日，国内玉米/大豆/小麦价格分别上涨 11.9%/-0.7%/2.9%。根据钢联数据，渠道库存处于持续被消耗 ...

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 26 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 美债再经考验 恐吓欧洲不解长期顽疾 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/5/19-25/5/23） 投资要点： 证券分析师 海外 AI：本周美国总统特朗普签署三项聚焦核能产业体系的关键行政命令，分别围绕燃料供给体系重建（《重 振核工业基础》）、反应堆测试机制改革（《改革能源部核反应堆测试》）、以及监管审批制度优化（《改革核 管理委员会》）。这三项命令协同作用于核能产业链的上游（铀转化与浓缩、HALEU 战略采购）、中游（先进 堆测试试点、DOE 权限强化）、和下游（NRC 审批周期压缩、SMR 绿色通道、老堆延寿重启），在燃料产能、 技术验证、项目审批等关键瓶颈环节形成实质性突破，意味着核电建设 ...

证券研究报告 机械设备|轨交设备Ⅱ 北交所|新股申购 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 25 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 交大铁发(920027.BJ) ——轨交基础设施安全智能产品"小巨人"，配套国铁集团赋能下游产业升级 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 交大铁发本次发行价格 8.81 元/股，发行市盈率 12.6X，申购日为 2025 年 5 月 27 日。公司 本次公开发行股份初始发行股份数量为 1,909.00 万股，发行后总股本为 7,634.00 万股，本次 发行数量占发行后总股本的 25.01%（超额配售选择权行使前）；若超额配售选择权全额行使， 则发行总股数将扩大至 2,195.35 万股，发行后总股本扩大至 7,920.35 万股，本次发行数量占 超额配售选择权全额行使后发行后总股本的 27.72%。战略投资者包括国投证券、上海电科股 权投资基金管理有限公司、国铁建信资产管 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery demand remains high, with significant growth in logistics performance. In April 2025, major express companies reported substantial business volume increases, with SF Express achieving a growth rate of 30.0% [4][29] - The logistics market is experiencing a shift towards consolidation, with leading companies like SF Express and JD Logistics benefiting from macroeconomic recovery and cost control measures [12] - The shipping sector is expected to see continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and limited new oil tanker orders, which will tighten supply [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In April 2025, the total business volume for express services reached 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with total revenue of 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [23] - SF Express led the growth with a business volume of 1.335 billion pieces, up 29.99%, while YTO Express and Yunda Express also showed strong performance [4][29] Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 7.2% to 1586 points, indicating an increase in shipping rates [9] - The oil tanker market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, while the dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover due to supply constraints and regulatory pressures [12] Aviation - In April 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 60.93 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with cargo volume rising by 16.8% [51] - The industry is expected to benefit from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, with potential for significant growth as macroeconomic conditions improve [12] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International are expected to see performance improvements due to the transformation of logistics parks and high dividend yields [12] - The competitive landscape in the express delivery sector is stabilizing, providing opportunities for companies like Deppon Logistics and Aneng Logistics to enhance profitability [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [3] Core Views - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.78% from May 19 to May 23, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.96% [4] - Innovative drug companies are highlighted as a key trend, with recommendations for specific stocks such as Huana Pharmaceutical, Xinlitai, and others [4] - The report emphasizes the successful IPO of Hengrui Medicine on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 99 billion HKD (13 billion USD) [7] - Hengrui's revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to reach 27.985 billion CNY and 6.337 billion CNY, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 22.63% and 47.28% [12] - The report identifies a shift from generic drugs to innovative drugs, with Hengrui's innovative drug revenue expected to contribute significantly to its overall sales [19] Summary by Sections Hengrui Medicine's IPO and Transformation - Hengrui Medicine officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 23, 2025, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy [7] - The company has transitioned from raw materials to generics and now to innovative drugs over its 50-year history [8] - Hengrui's innovative drug revenue reached 13.892 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 52% of total sales [19] Industry Perspective - The report suggests a focus on innovation, international expansion, and the aging population as key themes for the pharmaceutical industry [30] - The pharmaceutical index has shown positive performance, with a year-to-date increase of 4.30% [30] - The report highlights the importance of domestic policy adjustments and the potential for recovery in the pharmaceutical sector [47] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, particularly those with strong performance and low valuations [47] - Specific stocks to watch include Hengrui Medicine, Xinlitai, and others in the innovative drug space [50] - The report also suggests monitoring companies involved in international expansion and those addressing the needs of an aging population [48]

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 25 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 关税威胁再起，美铜大涨 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/19-2025/5/23） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页 / 共 16页 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜 ： 关 税 威 胁 再 起 ， 美 铜 大 涨 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +0.55%/-0.45 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 25 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 4 月电力数据跟踪 看好聚变装备前景 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 21 周周报（20250525） 投资要点： 证券分析师 电力：4 月光伏新增装机环比翻倍 单月用电增速稳健 装机：4 月光伏新增装机环比翻倍，入市影响仍在延续。国家能源局于 2025 年 5 月 22 日发 布 1-4 月全国电力工业统计数据：截至 4 月底，全国累计发电装机容量 34.9 亿千瓦，同比增 长 15.9%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量 9.9 亿千瓦，同比增长 47.7%；风电装机容量 5.4 亿千 瓦，同比增长 18.2%；单 4 月新增光伏 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is leveraging a comprehensive retail strategy to address operational challenges and diversify its customer base [5] - The company has faced short-term profit impacts due to increased discounts but maintains a leading dividend payout ratio in the industry [7] - The core international brand partnerships are gradually recovering, and new brand acquisitions are expected to enhance the company's diversified layout [7] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.416 billion in FY2026, with a growth rate of 10.14% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of RMB 27,012.90 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.64% [6] - The net profit for FY2024 is projected at RMB 1,286 million, down 41.89% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for FY2024 is estimated at 38.4%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous fiscal year [7] - The company plans to maintain a total dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2024/25, continuing to provide high dividend returns to shareholders [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: RMB 28,933.20 million in 2024, RMB 27,012.90 million in 2025, and RMB 26,445.63 million in 2026, with respective growth rates of 6.87%, -6.64%, and -2.10% [6] - The projected net profit for the years 2026 to 2028 is RMB 1,416.34 million, RMB 1,670.93 million, and RMB 1,980.06 million, with growth rates of 10.14%, 17.98%, and 18.50% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [6][9]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the expanding demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets, particularly driven by the growth in the electric vehicle and robotics sectors. The report highlights that the company has a competitive edge due to its scale, profitability, and technological advantages [8][11][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand for High-Performance Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue expanding, driven by applications in consumer electronics, variable frequency air conditioners, energy-saving elevators, industrial robots, wind power, and new energy vehicles. The global market demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is projected to reach 10.3/11.4/12.9/14.2 million tons from 2024 to 2027, with a CAGR of 11% [8][15][24]. 2. Company’s Competitive Advantages - The company is recognized as a leading player in the magnetic materials sector, benefiting from scale effects, profitability, and technological advantages. Its production capacity is expected to increase from 23,000 tons in 2023 to 40,000 tons in 2025, and further to 60,000 tons by 2027. The company has also invested in a new project in Mexico to enhance its production capabilities for magnetic components [35][42][43]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's revenue to reach 87.9 billion RMB in 2025, with net profits of 5.5 billion RMB, and projects continued growth through 2027. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the company are estimated to be 50, 42, and 31 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][47][50].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a clear growth trajectory in the short, medium, and long term, with potential for both volume and price increases in gold and silver [5][9]. Core Views - The dual catalysts of "interest rate cuts" and "Trump 2.0" are expected to sustain upward momentum in gold and silver prices. In the medium term, "Trump 2.0" may become the primary driver in the gold market during a 90-day tariff pause, with expectations of tariff increases, extended tax cuts, and "stagflation" providing strong support for rising gold prices. In the long term, these dual catalysts will continue to drive prices through 2025, supported by central bank reserves amid a backdrop of protectionism and great power competition [5][57][65]. - The company is a domestic leader in silver mining, having acquired several gold mining assets, which positions it well for future growth. As of the end of 2024, the company has identified approximately 12,000 tons of silver and 34 tons of gold, with an annual mining capacity nearing 2 million tons [6][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's closing price is 13.45 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 9.28 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 8.97 billion yuan. The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 45.60%, and the net asset value per share is 4.40 yuan [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.498 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 576 million yuan, reflecting a 47.74% increase. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.84 yuan [7][9]. Growth Drivers - The company has a clear growth path for production from its upcoming mines, with several projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2027. Key projects include the Honglin Mining and Yindu Mining, which are anticipated to start production in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][36][40]. - The company is actively pursuing resource acquisitions to enhance its growth potential, with plans to complete at least one acquisition project by 2025 [11][41]. Profitability and Performance Recovery - The company experienced a significant recovery in 2024, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, a 163.56% increase year-on-year, driven by the completion of technical upgrades at its subsidiaries and rising base metal prices. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 33.92% year-on-year [43][44]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a robust resource base with high-grade deposits, particularly in the Daxinganling region, which supports its strong profitability. The ongoing construction of new mines is expected to further enhance production capacity [27][30][33].