证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 30 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4157.98 | 0.16 | | 深证成指 | 14300.08 | (0.30) | | 沪深 300 | 4753.87 | 0.76 | | 中小 100 | 8663.51 | (0.91) | | 创业板指 | 3304.51 | (0.57) | 资料来源：同花顺，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20260130 ■重点关注 【电力设备】光伏行业动态点评—国内反内卷+马斯克太空光伏扩产共振， 关键仍在设备、材料*武佳雄 顾真 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 重点关注 【电力设备】光伏行业动态点评—国内反内卷+马斯克太空光伏扩产共振，关键仍在设备、材料 武佳雄 顾真 马斯克再次表示将建设 100GW 光伏产能，其产能规划可能往上游硅料、硅片延伸，硅料、硅片、电池、组件核心设 备受益，长期看材料 ...

中银国际固定收益研究 Fixed Income Research 中银国际固定收益研究 BOCI Fixed Income Research 2026. 01. 29 Wiley Huang (黄为一), CFA (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com Rates, Currencies & Credits China Fixed Income Research 利率、汇率、信用 中国固定收益研究 1 月 FOMC：按兵不动、模糊指引 本次会议波澜不惊。鉴于 12 月美联储已暗示将放缓降息步伐，加之 近期失业率回落、通胀依然高企，一系列数据进一步强化了"按兵不动" 的基调。因此，1 月 FOMC 维持利率不变符合市场一致预期。 会议声明措辞略显鹰派，主要反映近期经济的进展。 新闻发布会 Powell 基调中性偏鸽，对冲鹰派声明。 重要的披露和认证位于此报告的背面。 Important disclosures and certifications a ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Elon Musk has announced plans to build 100GW of photovoltaic capacity, which may extend upstream to silicon materials and wafers, benefiting core equipment in silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and modules. Long-term, material companies are expected to have market expansion opportunities [1][3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has clarified the "anti-involution" theme for the photovoltaic industry, suggesting that the industry is likely to self-limit production, optimizing the battery and module landscape [1][3]. - The acceleration of the industrialization of space photovoltaic technology in China is noted, with multiple technological routes progressing simultaneously [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the "anti-involution" strategy as a key theme for the photovoltaic industry, aiming to prevent monopolistic risks and promote rational development through capacity control and market-oriented measures. This is expected to lead to a self-limiting production scenario within the industry [5]. - The potential for Musk's integrated photovoltaic capacity expansion is emphasized, with expectations for increased orders for domestic photovoltaic equipment manufacturers as overseas manufacturers clarify their expansion plans [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Foster, JinkoSolar, JinDa Co., Maiwei, and others, while suggesting to pay attention to companies like Aotewi, Shuangliang Energy, and Dongfang Risen [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 21.27 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in domestic general aviation transportation, expected to benefit from the recovery in global oil and gas exploration investments and domestic low-altitude economic policies. The improvement in operational efficiency and fleet structure is anticipated to enhance profitability [4][19]. - The company's traditional strength in offshore oil helicopter services is expected to maintain steady growth, providing a solid foundation for performance. Additionally, the exploration of low-altitude economic-related businesses may open new growth opportunities for the company's future [4][19]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 2.351 billion, RMB 2.554 billion, and RMB 2.736 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 8.6%, and 7.2% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 352 million, RMB 382 million, and RMB 413 million, with growth rates of 16.1%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively. The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 0.45, RMB 0.49, and RMB 0.53, corresponding to P/E ratios of 45.1, 41.5, and 38.4 times [6][8]. Business Overview - The company operates Asia's largest civil helicopter fleet, with a total of 84 advanced helicopters and a strong operational capability. Its main business areas include offshore oil, emergency rescue, land aviation, aviation maintenance, and low-altitude economy [19][25]. - The offshore oil helicopter service remains the core revenue source, contributing approximately 67.1% of total sales, with the largest client being China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [29][36]. Market Position - The company has a dominant position in the offshore oil service market, with a market share exceeding 60%. The strategic cooperation with CNOOC has been reinforced, ensuring a stable revenue stream and operational efficiency [29][39]. - The low-altitude economy is seen as a new growth area, with the company actively participating in industry standard-setting and exploring partnerships for eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft operations [26][32]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue increasing from RMB 15.67 billion in 2019 to RMB 21.63 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.83% [43][44]. - The net profit for 2024 reached RMB 3.03 billion, a 26.81% increase compared to the previous year, marking the best performance since the company went public [43][44].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4151.24 | 0.27 | | 深证成指 | 14342.89 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4717.99 | 0.26 | | 中小 100 | 8742.72 | 0.19 | | 创业板指 | 3463.33 | (0.37) | 中银晨会聚焦-20260129 ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评—Clawdbot 重塑个人 AI 助理新范式*王君 高天然 Clawdbot 以创新设计推动 AI 向主动执行进化，凸显 AI agent 投资潜力。 【基础化工】化工行业 2026 年度策略—行业周期拐点已近，新材料蓄势腾 飞*余嫄嫄 徐中良 范琦岩 赵泰 2025 年化工行业景气度处于低位。展望 2026 年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反 内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复，同时新材料受益于下游需求的快 速发展，有望开启新一轮高成长。当前行业估值处于低位。维持行业强于大 市评级，推荐三条投资主线。 中银国际证 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 策略点评 Clawdbot 重塑个人 AI 助理新范式 Clawdbot 以创新设计推动 AI 向主动执行进化，凸显 AI agent 投资潜力。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 尽管 Clawdbot 仍面临一定的商业化瓶颈，但其生态位价值意义重大，关注 AI agent 投资机会。 Clawdbot 建立在开源大模型和开源框架之下，这表明未来 AI 代理生态中，核心价值可能从"模型本 身"上移至"代理框架"和"应用层"，而这一雏形产品受到市场和用户的广泛关注表明此类个人 AI 助 手在 AI 应用生态位中具备较高商业价值，也侧面反映了高价值量 AI agent 的增长潜力，关注 AI agent 及相关产业链如云服务、算力、存储、大模型厂商等投资机会。 风险提示 1）政策落地不及预期，宏观经济波动超预期。2）市场波动风险。3）海外经济超预期衰退、流动性 风 ...

Core Insights - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point, with the current low valuation presenting potential investment opportunities. The industry is expected to recover from its profitability bottom due to measures like "anti-involution" and the rapid growth of new materials driven by downstream demand [2][3][8]. Industry Overview - The chemical industry experienced a low point in 2025, with the PPI for industrial products, production materials, and chemical industries showing negative year-on-year growth for 38 consecutive months, marking the second-longest period of negative growth in history [16]. - As of the end of 2025, 30 out of 111 tracked chemical products had prices in the bottom 10% of their historical range, indicating significant pricing pressure [18]. Supply Dynamics - The construction of new projects in the chemical sector has seen a negative year-on-year growth rate, signaling that the current round of capacity expansion is nearing its end. By Q3 2025, the total fixed assets in the basic chemical industry reached 14,628.58 billion RMB, a 15.56% increase year-on-year, but the growth rate of ongoing projects turned negative for the first time in nearly four years [16][18]. Demand Trends - Domestic demand in the real estate sector is under pressure, but sectors like automotive and chemical fibers are showing positive growth. The demand for related products is expected to continue improving, supported by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and the rapid development of downstream industries such as new energy and AI [16][18]. Cost Factors - The global oil market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with international oil prices projected to stabilize within a range of 50-70 USD per barrel. This could lead to a gradual recovery in oil prices, although geopolitical events may introduce volatility [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the SW basic chemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 29.45, placing it at the 41.85% percentile since 2002, indicating a low valuation environment. The oil and petrochemical index had a TTM P/E ratio of 14.08, at the 12.49% percentile [16][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional chemical leaders that are expanding into new materials, as they are expected to see both performance and valuation improvements. Recommended companies include WanHua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [2][3][8]. - Attention is also drawn to sub-industries benefiting from "anti-involution" measures, such as refining, polyester, and organic silicon, where price levels are low and supply dynamics are improving [2][3][8].

■重点关注 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 28 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4139.90 | 0.18 | | 深证成指 | 14329.91 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4705.69 | (0.03) | | 中小 100 | 8725.73 | (0.20) | | 创业板指 | 3342.60 | 0.71 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 电子 | 2.27 | 煤炭 | (2.27) | | 通信 | 2.15 | 农林牧渔 | (1.95) | | 国防军工 | 1.65 | 钢铁 | (1.34) | | 机械设备 | 0.64 | 美容护理 | (1.22) | | 传媒 | 0.48 | 医药生物 | (1.11) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20260128 重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年工企利润数据点评—期待 2 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 1 月 27 日 风险提示：海外衰退风险；地缘关系的不确定性。 相关研究报告 2025 年工企利润数据点评 期待 2026 年初投资"实物工作量" 价格端对工业企业利润的拖累仍存。制造业对工业企业盈利的整体带动作用 延续凸显。期待 2026 年初投资"实物工作量"。 国家统计局网站 1 月 27 日信息显示，2025 年 1-12 月（下文简称"1-12 月"）全国规模以上工业企业（以下简称为"工业企业"）实现利润总 额 73982.0 亿元，同比增长 0.6%，增速较 1-11 月加快 0.5 个百分点； 2025 年 12 月（下文简称"12 月"），工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，增 速较 11 月明显加快 18.4 个百分点。 营业收入、成本方面，1-12 月工业企业营业收入同比增长 1.1%，增幅较 1-11 月收窄 0.5 个百分点，每百元资产实现营业收入 75.9 元，较 1-11 月 增加 1.5 元。1-12 月工业企业营业成本同比增长 1.3%，增幅较 1-11 月收 窄 0.5 个百分点。盈利能力方面，1-12 月规模以上工业企业营 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]