食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 000848.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.92 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 承德露露 2024 年年报及 2025年 1季报业绩 点评：受春节错期影响，公司季度间业 绩波动较大，若将 4Q24 及 1Q25 合并 来看，整体业绩表现稳健，受益成本红 利释放，1Q25 毛利率提升幅度较大。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 10.3 13.6 14.3 9.6 相对深圳成指 12.0 20.5 17.9 2.6 (21%) (12%) (3%) 6% 15% 24% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 承德露露 深圳成指 | 发行股数 (百万) | | 1,052.55 | | --- | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | | 1,039.52 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | | 10,441.34 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Overview - In Q1 2024, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 15,093.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, marking a positive turnaround from the previous months[2] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in March 2024 was 2.6% year-on-year[5] - The operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with a revenue per 100 yuan of assets reaching 71.7 yuan, up by 4.1 yuan from the previous months[5] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Analysis - Operating costs for industrial enterprises rose by 3.6% year-on-year in Q1 2024, outpacing the revenue growth rate, indicating ongoing cost pressures[5] - The operating income profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.7% in Q1 2024, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous months[5] - The industrial added value growth rate was 6.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, slightly up by 0.6 percentage points from January-February[6] Group 3: Sector Contributions and Economic Outlook - Manufacturing profits grew by 7.6% year-on-year in Q1 2024, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous months, enhancing overall industrial profitability[9] - The mining sector's profit decreased by 25.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, negatively impacting the overall industrial profit growth by 5.0 percentage points[8] - The central government emphasized boosting domestic demand and stabilizing investment as key economic strategies for 2024, with a focus on enhancing consumption's role in economic growth[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The industry is significantly influenced by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in oil prices, with a recommendation to focus on quarterly earnings reports and companies with stable dividend policies [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and the resilience of energy companies [2][10] - The mid-to-long-term investment themes include sustained high oil prices, growth in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of April 27, the SW basic chemical sector's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 21.45, at the 56.30% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 1.76, at the 8.83% historical percentile [2][10] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is 10.41, at the 9.89% historical percentile, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.16, at the 0.93% historical percentile [2][10] - The report notes a significant impact from tariff policies and oil price volatility, suggesting a focus on quarterly earnings and companies with robust dividend policies [2][10] Price Trends - In the week of April 21-27, 17 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 58 experienced declines, and 25 remained stable [9][34] - The average price of polymer MDI increased by 6.01% week-on-week, reaching 15,000 CNY/ton, although it is down 10.18% year-on-year [36] - The average price of vitamins decreased, with vitamin A down 9.33% week-on-week and vitamin E down 6.09% week-on-week [34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others with strong dividend policies and growth potential in new materials [2][10] - Specific stocks highlighted for April include Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology, both showing strong performance metrics [11][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies' performance elasticity and high-growth sub-industries, particularly in the context of policy support for demand recovery [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The first quarter saw a significant increase in photovoltaic (PV) installations in China, with a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, totaling 59.71 GW [2][21] - The government is pushing for the development of hydrogen energy applications, particularly in transportation, with a budget of 2.34 billion yuan allocated for fuel cell vehicle demonstrations [1][21] - The report highlights the importance of cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, focusing on the optimization of leading companies in silicon materials and battery cells [1] - The wind power sector is expected to see steady progress in domestic and overseas demand, with a recommendation to prioritize investments in turbine and casting segments [1] - The electric vehicle market is projected to maintain high growth, driven by government support for smart connected vehicles, which will boost demand for batteries and materials [1] - The report emphasizes the potential of solid-state battery commercialization by 2027, benefiting companies involved in battery, materials, and equipment [1] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes a strong growth trajectory in PV installations, with March 2025 alone contributing 20.24 GW [2][21] - The focus remains on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, particularly in silicon materials and battery cell production [1] Wind Power Sector - Domestic and overseas demand for wind power is expected to improve, with recommendations to invest in turbine and casting segments [1] Electric Vehicles - The government aims to significantly develop smart connected electric vehicles, which is anticipated to drive battery and material demand [1] Hydrogen Energy - Continuous policy support for hydrogen energy development is noted, with applications in green hydrogen and chemical sectors expected to expand [1][21] Company Performance - Notable company performances include: - Sunshine Power reported a net profit of 11.036 billion yuan in 2024, up 16.92% year-on-year, and 3.826 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 82.52% [23] - Other companies like Keda and EVE Energy also reported significant year-on-year profit increases in Q1 2025 [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent weeks, the performance of major global market assets generally aligns with the scenario assumption that the US will fall into "stagflation." The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A-share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The significant tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and have a negative impact on its economic growth. It is also highly likely to push up inflation in the short term. Whether tariff-induced inflation will turn into persistent stagflation is the key to determining the intensity and duration of trade frictions. If persistent stagflation occurs, the situation of a triple sell-off in US stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange will continue, increasing the difficulty for the Trump administration to persist in trade frictions [2][10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for the realization of the stagflation scenario. The retail data of US goods in the second quarter is particularly important. If US residents' consumption is rigid, the tariff hikes will mainly be passed on to commodity prices, and workers may demand higher wages, forming a new "wage - price spiral," increasing the probability of persistent stagflation. The nominal growth rate of US commodity retail sales in April is an important indicator. If it significantly exceeds the previous fluctuation range, it is more in line with the stagflation scenario assumption; otherwise, it is necessary to consider whether the current style of major asset classes has reached the extreme. The CPI data for April also has indicative value, but retail data reflects both price and quantity [2][11]. - Another factor determining whether the stagflation scenario can be realized is the policy choice of the Federal Reserve. Even if tariffs are regarded as consumption taxes, their inflationary effects may not be long - lasting. If the Trump administration forces the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy, the stagflation scenario is more likely to be realized. However, if the Trump administration only wants to blame the possible economic recession on the Federal Reserve, the situation may be different [2][14]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The performance of major global market assets in recent weeks is in line with the scenario assumption of US stagflation. The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A - share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and push up inflation in the short term. Whether it turns into persistent stagflation is the key to trade frictions [10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for stagflation. The second - quarter US commodity retail data is important. In April, the US imposed so - called "reciprocal tariffs." If the nominal growth rate of retail sales significantly exceeds the previous range, it is in line with the stagflation scenario; otherwise, it is necessary to re - evaluate the asset style. The April CPI data also has indicative value [11]. - The policy choice of the Federal Reserve is another factor for stagflation. The inflationary effect of tariffs may not be long - lasting. Forcing the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy may lead to stagflation, but if it's just for blame - shifting, the situation may vary [14]. - In the week from April 21 to April 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.65% week - on - week and 1.64% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index decreased by 2.07% week - on - week and 9.83% year - on - year. On April 18, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 3.61%. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.23% and 0.74% week - on - week respectively. LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 2.72% and 2.27% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - gold ratio increased by 0.91% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.48% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 1.43% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 2.54% week - on - week; the rebar inventory decreased by 4.58% week - on - week; the rebar price index increased by 1.37% week - on - week. On April 18, the producer price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and 7.27% year - on - year. From April 1 to 24, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 203,000 square meters [2]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the relationship between the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year, etc. [22][25][31] Important US High - Frequency Indicators - Multiple charts show important US high - frequency indicators, including the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts in US federal funds futures, the relationship between US same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, and the relationship between the number of first - time unemployment claims in the US and the unemployment rate [89][96][99] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, including the seasonal trends of the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), the producer price index, the total index of the China Commodity Price Index, etc. [100][104][109] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Multiple charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [154][156]

Macro Economic Overview - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: stocks > bonds > commodities > currency [3][5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and appropriate monetary policies, including timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to ensure liquidity [3][18] Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index increased by 0.38% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 0.62% [2][12] - Futures for coking coal and iron ore saw increases of 1.96% and 1.06% respectively [12][36] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao rose by 1 basis point to 1.33%, while the yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.66% [12][41] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [5][13] - Bonds are recommended for standard allocation, with a note that the "stock-bond seesaw" may impact the bond market in the short term [5][13] - Commodities and currency are suggested for underweight positions, with expected yields fluctuating around 2% [5][13] Economic Data Insights - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.1% for the one-year term and 3.6% for the five-year term, marking six consecutive months of stability [23] - The report highlights a rebound in steel production rates, with rebar and wire rod rates increasing by 0.35 and 1.77 percentage points respectively [25][28] Market Trends - The automotive sector showed a year-on-year increase in wholesale and retail sales of 9% and 17% respectively, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [33][34] - The real estate market experienced a slight decline in transaction volumes, with a total of 148.98 million square meters sold in the week ending April 20 [33][36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - External uncertainties are high, while internal policies are implemented steadily, which is basically in line with the bond market expectations. After the release of the meeting communiqué, bond yields remained stable. Looking ahead, the main contradiction in the bond market remains unchanged. Domestically, the direction of policy easing is certain, but the implementation pace is to be determined. Internationally, Sino-US relations are likely to ease, but the process is highly uncertain. The bond market is not pessimistic overall, but the upside and downside potential is limited, and yields are likely to remain volatile. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy as the primary approach and a trading strategy as a supplementary one [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Meeting's Assessment of the Situation - The meeting is satisfied with the economic performance in Q1 but highly concerned about overseas uncertainties. The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation, and external shocks are increasing [2][3] 3.2 Policy Thinking - Strengthen bottom-line thinking and prepare sufficient contingency plans. Due to the long - term, severe, and uncertain impact of current tariffs, the direction of policy hedging is certain, and the policy level is based on bottom - line thinking. However, the specific implementation rhythm needs to dynamically assess internal and external changes. Currently, the focus should be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies [2][3] 3.3 Specific Policies - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: There are differences in the wording of monetary and fiscal policies. Fiscal policy should be fully utilized and more proactive, while monetary policy still involves timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with structural innovations such as supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][4] - **Risk Resolution**: In the areas of local debt and real estate, the wording is more detailed, but the tone remains "continuously consolidating", indicating affirmation of the existing policy direction and a low probability of a shift to strong stimulus [2][4] - **Domestic Demand Policies**: These policies are given a large space and a prominent position in the report, but they mainly emphasize bottom - line thinking, such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihoods, and supporting enterprises severely affected by tariffs [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The central political bureau meeting on April 25, 2025, emphasized the importance of "urban renewal" as a significant factor for the real estate market, indicating that stabilizing the real estate market is crucial for expanding domestic demand [1][5] - The meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the implementation of urban renewal actions, effectively and orderly promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, and increase the supply of high-quality housing [5][8] - The report anticipates that the demand for "good houses" will drive sustainable development in the industry, with a focus on safety, comfort, and green living standards [5][8] Summary by Sections Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of more proactive macro policies, including the issuance of local government special bonds and the potential for interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity [5][8] - It notes that as of April 10, 2025, approximately 850 projects for acquiring idle land have been proposed, covering over 40 million square meters and amounting to 128.2 billion yuan [5] Urban Renewal and Housing Quality - The report emphasizes that urban renewal will be a key policy focus for the year, with a significant portion of the existing housing stock eligible for renovation [5][8] - It states that about 31.9% of the existing urban residential stock was built before 2000, indicating substantial potential for urban renewal projects [5] Market Stability and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with average sales prices for commercial housing increasing by 0.7% and 0.9% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [5][8] - It suggests that the market's stability will depend on the effective implementation of supportive policies in the second quarter of 2025 [5][8] - The report identifies four main investment lines: companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery of the second-hand housing market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company, as a leading global PCB drill needle manufacturer, has shown steady growth in performance, with revenue for 2024 reaching 1.58 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, and a net profit of 227 million RMB, up 3.45% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 423 million RMB, a 27.21% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 73 million RMB, up 78.51% year-on-year [3][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of high-end products such as micro-drills and coated drill needles, alongside new business contributions from CNC tools, smart equipment, and functional film products [3][5] Financial Summary - For 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.03 billion RMB, 2.40 billion RMB, and 2.71 billion RMB, with net profits of 324 million RMB, 392 million RMB, and 469 million RMB respectively. The EPS is expected to be 0.79 RMB, 0.96 RMB, and 1.14 RMB, with corresponding PE ratios of 33.0, 27.3, and 22.8 [5][7] - The company’s overall gross margin for 2024 was 35.80%, with a net margin of 14.39%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 38.05%, and the net margin increased to 17.04% [8][10] Business Growth and Strategy - The PCB industry is recovering, with the global PCB market expected to grow by approximately 5.8% in 2024. The company’s related businesses have experienced rapid growth, with tool products and polishing materials achieving revenues of 1.19 billion RMB and 151 million RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 14.26% and 30.70% [8][9] - The company is actively exploring new business avenues, with functional film products and smart CNC equipment showing significant growth potential. The automotive light control film has passed certification from several end vehicle manufacturers, with mass production expected to begin in the second half of 2025 [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 5.68 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with a global package volume of 6.6 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.2%. The Southeast Asian market led this growth with a 50.0% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 26.5% increase [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth driven by Southeast Asia's consumer market and efficiency improvements in China, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.728 billion in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 240.1%. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.30, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.7 for 2025, 11.4 for 2026, and 8.0 for 2027 [5][7]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 63.056 billion in 2023 to RMB 109.376 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 22% in 2023, 16% in 2024, and 13% in subsequent years [7][9]. - The EBITDA is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 4.107 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 10.434 billion by 2027 [7][9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the operational adjustments made in response to seasonal demand, including the addition of 400 new outlets and 1,000 new vehicles in Southeast Asia, while optimizing the network in China [8]. - The Southeast Asian market's consumer activity and e-commerce penetration are expected to continue driving package volume growth, while efficiency improvements in China are anticipated to enhance profitability [8].