承德露露 000848.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 杏仁露稳健增长，24 年圆满收官 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报及 25 年一季报，对 25、26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.69、0.75、0.79 元（原预测 25-26 年为 0.75、0.86 元）。结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025年的 17倍市盈率， 对应目标价为 11.73 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 原材料价格波动、新品放量不及预期、市场开拓不及预期、产能利用率不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,955 | 3,287 | 3,362 | 3,567 | 3,750 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.8% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 844 | 880 | 960 | 1,041 | 1,0 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 000848.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.92 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 承德露露 2024 年年报及 2025年 1季报业绩 点评：受春节错期影响，公司季度间业 绩波动较大，若将 4Q24 及 1Q25 合并 来看，整体业绩表现稳健，受益成本红 利释放，1Q25 毛利率提升幅度较大。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 10.3 13.6 14.3 9.6 相对深圳成指 12.0 20.5 17.9 2.6 (21%) (12%) (3%) 6% 15% 24% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 承德露露 深圳成指 | 发行股数 (百万) | | 1,052.55 | | --- | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | | 1,039.52 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | | 10,441.34 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [1][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's revenue remains stable, with almond costs decreasing, which releases profit margins. For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit of 666 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.41% [7][9]. - The company has set ambitious growth targets for 2025, with projected revenue growth rates of 5%, 6%, and 4% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profit growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 6% [9][10]. Financial Data Summary - The total share capital of the company is 1,052.55 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 10,441.34 million yuan [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.68 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.61 [10]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 20.3%, with a gross margin of 40.9% [8][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 315 million yuan, representing a payout ratio of 47% [8]. Business Performance - In terms of business segments, the almond beverage series generated revenue of 3.19 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, while the walnut and almond milk series showed varied performance [7]. - The company has expanded its market presence, with a net increase of 56 distributors in the northern region, contributing to a revenue increase of 12% in that area [7]. Future Outlook - The company is actively developing new herbal health drink products, leveraging its strategic resources to penetrate core regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Anhui [9]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to stabilize its main business and continue benefiting from cost reductions in almond procurement [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.287 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million, up 4.41% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.128 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.69%, while the net profit was 247 million, increasing by 26.95% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.002 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.36%, and the net profit was 215 million, down 12.53% year-on-year [1] - Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, the combined revenue for Q4 and Q1 was 2.13 billion, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [2] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from almond milk, nut walnut, and almond milk series was 3.19 billion, 80 million, and 10 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11%, -2%, and +249% [2] - The sales volume of almond milk reached 330,000 tons, with a volume increase of 11.5% and stable price per ton [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from the northern, central, and other regions was 2.99 billion, 190 million, and 110 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12%, 9%, and 3% [2] - The northern region saw a strengthening of its market position, with a net increase of 56 distributors [2] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 20.3% [4] - The gross profit margin was stable, decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 40.9% [4] - The increase in almond procurement costs due to weather conditions in 2023 led to a rise of over 30% in prices from Q4 2023, but prices dropped by over 30% starting Q4 2024 due to significant production increases [4] Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points due to investments in e-commerce operations, new market development, and new product launches [5] - The management expense ratio rose by 0.6 percentage points due to increased share-based payment expenses [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new herbal health drink products, leveraging the resource advantages of its "southward expansion" strategy [6] - The main business is expected to stabilize, with continued cost benefits from almonds anticipated in the first half of 2025 [6] - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5%, 6%, and 4% respectively, with net profit growth of 7%, 8%, and 6% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [1][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable revenue performance with a projected revenue of 3.45 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.95% [7][10]. - The company has achieved its revenue incentive targets for 2024, with a net profit of 666.24 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.41% [9][10]. - The report anticipates continued benefits from reduced almond costs, which are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [8][9]. Financial Data Summary - Total A-share capital is 1,052.55 million shares, with a total market capitalization of 10,441.34 million yuan [2]. - The company's net asset per share is 3.45 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio stands at 20.71% [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.68 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.61 [10][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 3.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.26% [10]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 20.27%, with a net profit of 666.17 million yuan [11][12]. - The report indicates that the company plans to launch new herbal health drink products, which may further stabilize its main business [9]. Market Performance - The company has seen a significant increase in sales in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a revenue of 1.128 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 22.69% [7]. - The report notes that the company has added 56 new distributors in the northern region, reinforcing its market presence [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of 5% in 2025, with net profit growth projected at 7% [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued cost benefits from almond procurement, which could enhance profit margins in the upcoming quarters [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][16]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 3.287 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.26% and 4.41% respectively [4][10]. - The report highlights a slight decline in gross margin to 40.94% in 2024, primarily due to increased procurement costs from reduced almond production caused by adverse weather conditions [4]. - The company has shown a significant improvement in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 39.83%, attributed to a more than 30% decrease in almond procurement prices [5]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 9.69 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 10.4 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.44 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.128 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.69% [5]. - The company plans to distribute dividends amounting to 315 million yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 47% [4]. - The company has developed 141 transportation hub stores and 203 school stores in 2024, indicating a focus on expanding its distribution network [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.452 billion yuan, 3.802 billion yuan, and 4.007 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 714 million yuan, 781 million yuan, and 813 million yuan [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.68 yuan, 0.74 yuan, and 0.77 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 14, 13, and 13 times [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10][16] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 3.287 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 11.26% and 4.41% respectively [4][12] - The company has a stable core business in almond milk, with a focus on positive changes driven by incentives [4] - The company is enhancing its market presence in southern regions and developing new products, which are expected to contribute to growth [10] Company Overview - Latest closing price: 9.69 yuan [3] - Total shares: 1.053 billion, circulating shares: 1.040 billion [3] - Total market capitalization: 10.4 billion yuan [3] - 52-week high/low: 10.14/6.80 yuan [3] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 25.1% [3] - Price-to-earnings ratio: 15.44 [3] - Major shareholder: Wanxiang San Nong Group Co., Ltd. [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.128 billion yuan, with a net profit of 247 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 22.69% for both revenue and net profit [5] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 improved to 39.83%, driven by a significant decrease in almond procurement prices [5] - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 3.452 billion yuan and a net profit of 714 million yuan, with respective growth rates of 5.01% and 7.15% [12][15] Product and Market Development - In 2024, revenue from almond milk, nut walnut, almond milk, and others was 3.188 billion yuan, 85 million yuan, 12 million yuan, and 3 million yuan respectively, with almond milk showing a year-on-year growth of 11.38% [6] - The company expanded its distribution network by developing 141 transportation hub stores and 203 school stores in 2024 [6] - The company has increased its advertising expenses by 38.95% to 206 million yuan, reflecting its investment in e-commerce and new market development [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's 2024 annual report exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 3.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666.24 million yuan, up 4.41% year-on-year [6] - The significant revenue and profit growth in Q4 2024 was attributed to the early Spring Festival, which led to a revenue of 1.128 billion yuan and a net profit of 247 million yuan, marking increases of 22.69% and 26.95% respectively [6] - The company is expected to benefit from lower raw material costs, particularly for iron and almonds, with almond procurement prices dropping over 30% since Q3 2024 [6] - The management team has shown stability and a strong commitment to innovation, launching several new products, including herbal health series and various plant-based beverages [6] - The company has a robust cash flow, with a net cash flow from operations of 630 million yuan in 2024 and a proposed dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 3.307 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight increase in net profit to 680.38 million yuan [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.28x [1] - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 4.137 billion yuan and a net profit of 903.23 million yuan by 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.86 yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 annual report exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 3.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666.24 million yuan, up 4.41% year-on-year [6] - The significant performance in Q4 2024 was attributed to the early Spring Festival, leading to a revenue of 1.128 billion yuan and a net profit of 247 million yuan, representing growth of 22.69% and 26.95% respectively [6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from cost reductions in raw materials, particularly with a more than 30% decrease in almond procurement prices starting from Q3 2024 [6] - The management team has shown stability and a strong commitment to innovation, launching several new products, including herbal health series, which are expected to gain market traction [6] - The company has a high-quality cash flow, with a net cash flow from operations of 630 million yuan in 2024 and a strong dividend policy, proposing a dividend of 0.3 yuan per share [6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 3.307 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight increase in net profit to 680.38 million yuan [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.28x [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow to 4.876 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 23.22% [15] - The company plans to repurchase 30 to 60 million shares, significantly exceeding market averages, indicating strong confidence in its future performance [6]

一、资质条件 承德露露股份公司 2024 年度会计师事务所履职情况评估报告 承德露露股份公司（以下简称"公司"）聘请天职国际会计师事务 所（特殊普通合伙）（以下简称"天职国际"）作为公司 2024 年度审 计机构。根据财政部、国务院国资委及证监会颁布的《国有企业、上市 公司选聘会计师事务所管理办法》，公司对天职国际在 2024 年度审计 中的履职情况进行了评估。经评估，公司认为，天职国际具备执业资质， 履职能够保持独立性，勤勉尽责，公允表达意见。现将具体情况汇报如 下： 天职国际会计师事务所于 1988 年 12 月成立，总部北京，首席合伙 人为邱靖之，注册地址为北京市海淀区车公庄西路 19 号 68 号楼 A-1 和 A-5 区域，组织形式为特殊普通合伙。 天职国际 2023 年度经审计的收入总额 31.97 亿元，审计业务收入 26.41 亿元,证券业务收入 12.87 亿元。2023 年度上市公司审计客户 263 家，主要行业（证监会门类行业，下同）包括制造业、信息传输、软件 和信息技术服务业、电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业、批发和零售 业、交通运输、仓储和邮政业等，审计收费总额 3.19 亿元，本公 ...